Pitcher Rankings - Three Year FIP

I thought it would be interesting to see the best pitchers over the last three years according to FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Not too many surprises.

Name	W	L	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Tim Lincecum	49	22	664.2	10.25	3.09	0.53	0.299	0.77	0.47	2.83	2.69
Cliff Lee	48	25	667.1	7.23	1.28	0.61	0.302	0.75	0.43	2.98	2.85
Roy Halladay	58	31	735.2	7.74	1.27	0.78	0.293	0.79	0.52	2.67	3.03
Zack Greinke	39	32	651.2	8.37	2.24	0.69	0.306	0.73	0.43	3.25	3.05
Adam Wainwright	50	22	595.1	7.8	2.36	0.67	0.283	0.79	0.50	2.68	3.16
CC Sabathia	57	25	720.2	8.06	2.5	0.71	0.285	0.75	0.47	3.07	3.27
Justin Verlander	48	35	665.1	8.81	2.99	0.7	0.3	0.70	0.39	3.84	3.27
Felix Hernandez	41	28	689	8.15	2.89	0.64	0.283	0.77	0.53	2.69	3.28
Jon Lester	50	23	621.2	8.72	3.08	0.69	0.3	0.76	0.49	3.29	3.31
Mike Mussina	20	9	200.1	6.74	1.39	0.76	0.321	0.73	0.49	3.37	3.32
Dan Haren	42	30	680.1	8.53	1.75	1.02	0.295	0.75	0.42	3.47	3.33
Tommy Hanson	21	15	330.1	7.87	2.78	0.65	0.282	0.75	0.41	3.16	3.38
Ubaldo Jimenez	46	32	638.1	8.23	3.95	0.48	0.283	0.74	0.52	3.43	3.42
Chad Billingsley	40	32	588.2	8.42	3.59	0.6	0.302	0.73	0.48	3.58	3.42
Hiroki Kuroda	28	30	497	6.56	2.06	0.72	0.28	0.68	0.51	3.6	3.46
Colby Lewis	12	13	201	8.78	2.91	0.94	0.275	0.72	0.38	3.72	3.55
Wandy Rodriguez	34	31	538	8.4	2.93	0.85	0.304	0.74	0.45	3.36	3.55
Johan Santana	40	25	600	7.44	2.46	0.89	0.275	0.80	0.37	2.85	3.59
Roy Oswalt	38	29	601.2	7.42	2.15	0.91	0.279	0.75	0.47	3.44	3.6
Jered Weaver	40	30	612	8.22	2.56	1.01	0.283	0.74	0.33	3.65	3.64
Ricky Nolasco	42	26	555	8.56	1.93	1.22	0.299	0.69	0.39	4.31	3.66
Cole Hamels	36	32	629.2	8.22	2.24	1.11	0.288	0.77	0.42	3.46	3.7
Derek Lowe	45	33	599.1	5.92	2.54	0.72	0.305	0.71	0.58	3.95	3.72
Josh Beckett	35	22	514.1	8.52	2.34	1.1	0.311	0.70	0.45	4.39	3.72
Ryan Dempster	43	27	622	8.2	3.28	0.88	0.292	0.74	0.48	3.49	3.76
Jair Jurrjens	34	26	519.2	6.53	3.24	0.68	0.287	0.74	0.46	3.45	3.76
Matt Cain	35	33	658.2	7.3	3.07	0.86	0.27	0.77	0.36	3.27	3.81
Joel Pineiro	32	26	515	4.86	1.68	0.84	0.295	0.69	0.55	4.07	3.86
Javier Vazquez	37	36	585	8.6	2.62	1.18	0.291	0.72	0.39	4.17	3.86
Carlos Zambrano	34	19	487.2	7.36	4.04	0.65	0.288	0.74	0.45	3.71	3.88
Andy Pettitte	39	25	527.2	6.94	2.93	0.89	0.309	0.71	0.47	4.09	3.9
John Danks	40	31	608.1	6.95	2.96	0.9	0.278	0.75	0.44	3.61	3.91
Scott Baker	38	22	542.2	7.48	2.21	1.18	0.293	0.74	0.34	4.11	3.95
Ricky Romero	27	18	388	7.31	3.73	0.77	0.309	0.73	0.55	3.99	3.95
Jonathan Sanchez	30	33	514.2	9.43	4.53	0.94	0.281	0.73	0.41	4.04	4.01

Can Ubaldo Jimenez Repeat?

Ubaldo Jimenez was a Fantasy Baseball Stud in 2010. But more than a few analysts have questioned his ability to repeat his performance in 2011. What do you think?

2011 Sleeper: Jeff Francis SP Kansas City Royals

At first glance, it doesn't appear that Jeff Francis has ever been a desired fantasy starter. Before you look at his stats you know that he's spent his entire major league career pitching at Coor Field. Coors Field, the longtime bane of fantasy owners everywhere when it comes to pitching, has made many decent pitchers look abominable. Francis is included in that class but he can't blame it all on the thin air.

Francis, at least in the majors, has posted mediocre strikeout and walk rates. Not terrible rates, but nothing to make an ambitious fantasy owner take notice. His HR9 has been all over the place from awesome to abysmal. However he does induce a decent number of groundballs. With skills like these it is pretty easy to understand why with so many teams looking for starters (teams with cash to spend like the Yankees, Mets, Rangers and Cubs) Francis landed on the Kansas City Royals.

But as most of us understand these days, a pitcher's skills are not the entire story. There are park factors, team defense, and luck that factor into things.

Park Factors

Even in the era of the humidor, Coors Field is not exactly a friendly place for pitchers. According to StatCorner.com's Park Factors, Coors Field had the following influence in 2010:

PARK FACTORS (LHB/RHB)
K:	87 / 90		GB:	102 / 103
BB:	103 / 89		OF:	91 / 93
1B:	103 / 104		LD:	129 / 128
2B:	104 / 120		IF:	95 / 90
3B:	121 / 188		HBP:	72 / 99
HR:	116 / 117		wOBA:	108 / 112

If you were wondering why the Rockies have had such bad luck signing free agent pitchers, here is your first clue. Unless a guy is desperate to line with pockets with greenbacks, free agent pitchers will go elsewhere. Here are the numbers for the new place - Kauffman Stadium:

PARK FACTORS (LHB/RHB)
K:	88 / 92		GB:	106 / 101
BB:	104 / 91		OF:	100 / 108
1B:	104 / 102		LD:	105 / 106
2B:	117 / 106		IF:	85 / 93
3B:	122 / 126		HBP:	115 / 82
HR:	73 / 85		wOBA:	104 / 100

What you really want to look at is that homerun factor. At Coors Field 116/117 and in KC, 73/85. The rest is a lot closer than you might think, but a 30 percent swing in homerun rate could do wonders for any pitcher. A plus for Jeff Francis and his potential fantasy value.

Team Defense

Both the Royals and Rockies were bad defensive teams last year. In fact, the Rockies and Royals rate as the worst and second worst defensive team by UZR/150 the last three seasons. The Rockies at -5.8 and the Royals at -5.7 were basically just as bad. Fortunately, the Royals have reason to believe they have significantly improved their overall defense. Jeff Francoeur, Lorenzo Cain, and Alcides Escobar should all be significant improvements defensively. Very unscientifically, I'm going to say that the Royals should be a good defensive team in 2011. Another plus for Francis and his fantasy value.

Luck

I hate the very idea of luck. Probably because I have a severe lack of it, at least the good kind. It is also almost impossible to measure in any accurate way. francis has a career BABIP of .314 but he's been over that mark four out of six seasons (he missed the 2009 season due to injury). That sounds like bad luck, the horrid defense factors into that as well. His LOB percentage is all over the place but it has mostly been below 70 percent, which looks like bad luck. Inconsistent bullpens and lousy managers don't help, but it was at 64.5 percent in 2010 which looks like real bad luck. With so much bad luck in Jeff's history we can only hope the change of scenery brings brings better luck to Francis and his fantasy owners.

Conclusion

Jeff Francis is not a great pitcher but he is a decent one. Before his injury he proved to be fairly durable. He pitched at near a league average level (that may be a bit generous) in one of the worst pitching environments the world has ever known. In an improved pitching environment he should has a pretty good chance at a career best season. One that fantasy owners in AL-only leagues should like seeing on their stat sheets, and mixed leaguers may want to gamble on in the late rounds or dollar days.

2011 Sleeper: Brad Emaus 2B (or utility) New York Mets

The New York Mets and many of their fans have been bitching about Luis Castillo and his unsuitability to be their starting second baseman almost since he arrived in New York. It's probably a little unreasonable in intensity... Fortunately, for those New Yorkers and the Mets, the pain is almost over. The new Mets management has options to replace Castillo and it appears that they will. Castillo is in the final season of a four year deal and is scheduled to earn $6 million. He could very well collect it playing for another team. Sandy Alderson appears to be the type of General Manager that will acknowledge a mistake and cut a player rather than continually try to prove he was right.

Reese Havens is the future at the position if all goes well but for now it appears to be a competition between four players: Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Justin Turner and the incumbent Luis Castillo.

Daniel Murphy

Last year the Mets the Mets saw Daniel Murphy as an infield option but injury took him out early in the season and he was not a factor in 2010. But Murphy is now healthy and expected to compete for the job of starting second baseman. To prepare for the 2011 season Murphy signed up for the Dominican Winter League. He batted .320/.395/.515 with four homers and five steals (only caught once) in 103 at-bats. A small sample to be sure, but an encouraging one.

Murphy is a natural third baseman but the Mets believe he can handle second base defensively, or at least that he'll be better in the infield than the outfield. From a scouting report in the Boston Globe:

"He’s a good enough athlete where he can pull it off,’’ said the scout, "but it will take time just to learn all the nuances of the position. I can see their thinking. He can hit. A sound player. This would be a nice conversion for them at a position they need help at."

Murphy has the patience to draw walks. He is also a good contact hitter but swings at a few too many pitches out of the strike zone, which limits his batting average potential. He has decent power for a middle infielder and the speed and ability to steal 15-20 bases in full-time at-bats. Murphy is probably the favorite to win the position based on his talent and major league experience. He's likely to be on the major league roster even if he fails to win the starting job. Murphy seems idealy suited for an injury prone Mets team. He can play several positions and will not embarrass himself with the bat. Those skills are best utilized from the bench.

Justin Turner

The Mets picked up Justin Turner on waivers from the Baltimore Orioles where he was a fan favorite but was apparently unappreciated by the team's management. In his brief Major league appearances Turner has failed to hit effectively. Turner can play all over the infield including short stop and the Mets called him up when Jose Reyes needed a mid-summer break. But despite his major league woes, turner had a very strong season in Triple-A for the Mets, batting .333/.390/.516 with 11 homers and five steals (caught three times) in 312 at-bats. He followed his strong Triple-A stint with a solid performance in the Dominican Winter League where he slashed .318/.382/.438 with a homer in 80 at-bats.

Turner has always shown the ability to hit for a strong batting average. This is based mostly on his strong contact skills, and some ability to draw walks. He has a little pop, nothing to write home about, and doesn't steal bases. His value is in hitting for average and defensive versatility. He is also a very strong hitter against left-handed pitchers. Although he is seemingly popular wherever he goes, Turner may be the unlikeliest candidate for the job based on a lack of power and speed but he has his supporters.

Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo was a decent player with the Florida Marlins who brought him up and with the Minnesota Twins during his short stint with them. He has never shown any power. His fanalytic value has always been tied to his batting average and stolen bases. His speed on the bases has gradually evaporated and the batting average comes and goes. For the Mets, Castillo has been bad and worse, two out of three seasons. He still draws a decent number of walks but his average has been so bad that his on-base percentages have been mediocre. The decline in speed has also killed his defense, which has been terrible for the Mets. Even if Castillo had a great Spring Training he would have a hard time winning the faith of the Mets management.

Brad Emaus

The Mets used their first Rule V draft pick on natural second baseman Brad Emaus, so he must stay on the major league roster for the entire season or be offered back to the Toronto Blue Jays. It is difficult to say how determined the Mets are to have Emaus on the 25-man roster. One the one hand, they did draft him and pay the Blue Jays cash to take him off their hands. On the other hand, the Mets (even in their current state) have the money to blow just to take a look at a player.

My hunch says that the Mets are serious about Emaus. Sandy Alderson, is serious about team building and making maximum use of all his resources. His assistant Paul Depodesta is a stats guy and has to love a player like Emaus for reasons that will soon become apparent to you. Another assistant J.P. Ricciardi ran the Blue Jays when Emaus was drafted and likely knows him better than most. I think Emaus will stick around. The question is in what role.

Here's what Emaus had to say about being picked to Baseball America:

“My agent (ACES’ Mike Zimmerman) told me this week that there was a 50-50 chance I’d be taken in the Rule 5, and right now I’m just very ecstatic, excited to be given another chance by the Mets,” Emaus said via phone from the Dominican. Asked to give Mets fans a scouting report, Emaus said, “I’m just a blue-collar guy, a solid guy who has to know the game, has to have some (baseball IQ) because I don’t have great tools. I’m not flashy but I bring my best every day and go out trying to find an edge.”

Emaus spent the 2010 season playing at two levels for the Toronto Blue Jays. In Double-A, he slashed .272/.402/.434 with five homers and five steals in 170 at-bats. After being promoted to Triple-A, he hit .298/.395/.495 with ten homers and eight stolen bases. A nice season that he followed up in the Dominican Winter League (noticing a theme?) where he slashed .268/.345/.449 with one homer and two steals in 127 at-bats.

Emaus has a fantastic eye and a ton of patience at the plate. He has solid power, which is mostly double at this point but there is still room for that to turn to homer power. Right now he probably would hit 10-15 homers in a full season of at-bats with an upside of 20. He has decent not great speed but is a skilled baserunner who will steal 10-15 bases per season. He should hit for a strong batting average based on his eye and very good contact skills. His upside looks a lot like Daniel Murphy's but he also throws in a solid glove at second base. He is sure-handed but with just average range according to scouting reports.

Conclusions

Murphy is clearly the favorite to win the job but Emaus is a dark horse with a ton of support in upper management. Murphy has the most major league experience and his versatility makes him a decent bench option. Emaus has a better glove at second base and gets on base at a tremendous rate, he would make a very good number two hitter behind Jose Reyes and in front of the powerful middle of the Mets lineup.

Luis Castillo is so reviled that it is almost impossible for him to make the team. It is probably more likely that he is cut than he becomes the starter. Justin Turner has some flash but lacks the backing to win the job short of an outstanding spring. There is a case to be made for platooning Turner with Murphy but that is kinda hard to predict.

More Mets News

From MLB.com:

Johan Santana visited Mets medical staff in New York this week and has been cleared to begin a rehab program "which will have him throwing before the start of Spring Training," according to a team spokesman. Santana, 31, had been sidelined since undergoing September surgery to repair a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder. His original rehab schedule called for him to begin playing catch in January, leading the spokesman to say, "It's about where we're supposed to be."

Though there is no concrete timetable for his return, the Mets do not expect him back until around mid-season.

Brad Emaus - Arizona Fall League - 2009 from David Pratt on Vimeo.

Check It Out!

Our friend Jason Collette has moved on to Baseball Prospectus (FanBall.com is leaving us soon) and the link leads to his first piece on a few underrated pitchers that fantasy owners should consider. Check it out!

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/1/6/1920032/the-mets-options-at-second-base

http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2010/12/02/watching-justin-turner-live-in-december/

http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2011/01/12/comparison-brad-emaus-justin-turner/

http://risingapple.com/2010/05/26/mets-claim-justin-turner-from-orioles/

2011 Sleeper: Robinson Chirinos (and the Garza Trade)

Around here the wait for Spring Training to start can be excruciating. We scour ESPN.com looking for news to hold us over. But it is January and we end up reading about Rex Ryan and his quest to unseat Bill Belichick as the greatest coach in the land and looking at Superbowl predictions. Fortunately for the fantasy baseball junkie, there is NFL football and the never ending search for yet another sleeper.

There has already been plenty of talk about the Tampa Bay Rays making the Matt Garza trade. In case you've been under a rock the deal was Matt Garza, Fernando Perez, and minor league pitcher Zachary Rosscup to the Cubs for pitcher Chris Archer, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee, outfielders Brandon Guyer and Sam Fuld, and catcher Robinson Chirinos.

I don't have much to add about Garza himself. I like him in the National League, where he should get a slight boost to his overall numbers. The change in ball parks is not ideal but moving from the AL East to the NL Central should more than make up for it. But you knew all that or at least you've read it on three million different fantasy sites.

Far more interesting to me (for fantasy purposes) are the players coming back to the Tampa Bay Rays and the roles we can project for them, especially catcher Robinson Chirinos. After laboring for years to advance as far as Double-A, Chirinos broke out in 2009 by hitting .294/.396/.519 then built on that in 2010 by hitting .326/.416/.583 with 18 homers. At catcher, anything close to those numbers in the majors would make Chirinos a fantasy stud and an MLB star.

I think we've been mislead about how important Chirinos was to this deal. The Rangers were also hard after Garza. According to Peter Gammons the Rangers tried to acquire Chirinos for the Rays to include him in a Garza deal.

The Rangers were the other team in it to the end. They thought they could get Chirinos from the Cubs, then package him with left-handed pitcher Derek Holland, reliever Frank Francisco and outfielder Engel Beltre, plus pay some of Francisco's contract. Friedman sees everything in the long term, and he thought that in 2012 and '13 -- when Jeremy Hellickson, David Price and Archer could be an extremely formidable front three -- the Rays would have a better chance to keep their window open.

The Rangers players plus Chirinos would have been a much better package in the short term as far as keeping their place atop the AL-East. That the Rangers wanted to acquire Chirinos for them indicates how important he was to the deal from the Rays perspective.

Fantasy owners should keep a close eye on Chirinos during Spring Training. I believe he has an excellent chance of making the team as a utility player if not as a back-up catcher. He has a reputation as a great glove in the infield and at catcher. The Rays definitely see something in Chirinos and a productive player (even a part-time one) who qualifies at catcher is fantasy gold. That's much more significant to fantasy owners than another rookie pitcher on a team loaded with quality arms.

The rest of the deal...

Chris Archer has been discussed a ton as the consensus best prospect in the deal. He was in the top three Cubs prospects by almost every source and for many was number one. He has great stuff and his ceiling is as a front line starter. However, until he improves his control his chances of emerging as more than a quality innings eater are minimal. Though he was at the top of the charts in the Cubs deep system, he is just one of several very good pitching prospects for the Rays. He needs improved control to separate himself from the pack, to his credit his control has improved two straight seasons. He is essentially ready to fill that innings eating role now and could make his major league debut this season.

Outfielder Sam Fuld is an ideal fourth outfielder. He is a solid defender at all three outfield positions and at the plate shows patience and the ability to draw walks. He doesn't have much power but can steal bases. He is much like a more durable and experienced Fernando Perez. Stat guys should love Fuld since he is a stat guy at heart as well. He is a Stanford graduate who majored in statistics and interned at Stats, Inc. Our kind of guy.

Hak-Ju Lee is a few years away but is a very interesting prospect. Keith Law of ESPN likes him more than most and had him ranked first in the Cubs system. He is a very good defensive shortstop with above average speed on the bases. He doesn't have much power and though some believe he will develop some, power is not likely to be a major fantasy asset of Lee's.

Brandon Guyer is an average defensive center fielder with nice speed. He had a very good 2010 season hitting .344/.398/.588 in Double-A with 13 homers, 76 runs, 58 rbi, and 30 stolen bases in 410 plate appearances. He looks like a nice starting option if one of the outfield primaries needs extended time off due to injury.

Other Articles on Robinson Chirinos and the Garza Trade that you may enjoy.
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http://www.espn1040.com/includes/blog/index.php?action=blog&blog_id=12&post_id=1430

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110107&content_id=16408630&vkey=perspectives&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

http://theprocessreport.com/2011/01/07/report-tampa-bay-rays-set-to-trade-matt-garza-to-chicago-cubs/

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110107&content_id=16408870&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&tcid=tw_article_16408870

http://dockoftherays.com/2011/01/09/archer-interviewed-on-minors-and-majors/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/sam-fuld-fascinating-4th-of/

Farm System Rankings with Dollar Values

The above graphic was created by Doug Gray of RedsMinorleagues.com and is used with permission. I present it here because it is always nice to know where the talent will be coming from.

FIP Video from DRays Bay