Looking for Wins? IP, GB%, and Strikeouts are Key

Starting pitching is often the bane of fantasy teams. Owners can't stand most of their starters and they wish their league didn't have an innings floor so they could draft all relievers (especially in K9 leagues). They usually fail to do well in the wins category anyway...

If the paragragh above describes your thinking or even comes close I've got some questions and answers for you.

How does a pitcher get a win?

1. He pitches at least five innings.
2. He is the pitcher of record, when his team takes the lead for the final time.
3. The bullpen doesn't blow it.

When you put together your pitching staff are you actually looking for wins?

1. Many of the owners I speak to are looking for pitchers on teams that score lots of runs.
2. They avoid pitchers on teams like the Royals and Indians (teams that lose a lot) and on teams like the Rangers and Rockies (play in offensive ballparks).
   
3. They usually find themselves in the middle of the pack in most pitching categories. They are avoiding risk but not grabbing skills.
   

Do the last two questions correlate in any way?

1. No.
2. Seriously, no.

So, what should you look for in a starting pitcher?

1. First, acknowledge that wins are a weak statistical category and have only a little relation to a pitcher's skill. Now, you're saying "a little? I thought it was no relation. " Think of it like this. If you or I went out to face the Yankees' lineup, we would have to get extremely lucky to get even one win with the world's greatest defense and pitching in the world's greatest pitcher's park. As a pitcher's skill level increases the chance of getting wins increases. So, yes, there is at least a little skill involved in gaining wins.
2. Innings. The more innings the better the chance of gaining wins. An innings horse is most likely to pitch at least five innings. An innings horse will pitch through the innings covered by the weakest park of his team's bullpen. An innings horse just might pitch a complete game and leave just the final score out of his hands.
   
3. I have a league mate that HATES adding innings to his staff. He believes that with innings come bad innings, and a poor pitcher with lots of innings will just drag his team down. That's kinda true. This is why you have to make certain that the pitchers you draft or buy at auction have certain skills. The ability to strikeout batters and the ability to induce weak groundballs.
4. Strikeouts are the key. As you may realize, strikeouts measure a pitchers ability to keep the batter from putting the ball in play. When the ball is in play, the outcome is very difficult to control. Some would say impossible, but that isn't true. Some pitchers are very good at inducing infield fly balls, which are usually as good as outs. I do my best to avoid pitchers with less than a 7.5 K9.
5. Groundballs are a good things. Especially the weakly hit ones. Even more so when they come from a pitcher with a high strikeout rate. This means that there are even fewer well hit balls in play than from a pitcher that does just one or the other. I do my best to draft a staff with a collective groundball rate of 45 percent or better.
   

Here is a list of the 31 starting pitchers with at least 190 innings pitched in 2010 and at least a 7.5 K9 rate. Look for young pitchers who finished the 2010 season with 140-160 innings that fit this criterion and you're looking at future aces you may get at a slight discount. But that's another article.

Name	Team	W	L	GS	IP	K/9	BABIP	GB%	ERA	FIP
Tim Lincecum	Giants	16	10	33	212.1	9.79	0.31	48.90%	3.43	3.15
Jon Lester	Red Sox	19	9	32	208	9.74	0.289	53.60%	3.25	3.13
Jonathan Sanchez	Giants	13	9	33	193.1	9.54	0.252	41.50%	3.07	4
Francisco Liriano	Twins	14	10	31	191.2	9.44	0.331	53.60%	3.62	2.66
Jered Weaver	Angels	13	12	34	224.1	9.35	0.276	36.00%	3.01	3.06
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	13	10	32	204.1	9.34	0.275	40.10%	2.91	3.12
Cole Hamels	Phillies	12	11	33	208.2	9.1	0.289	45.40%	3.06	3.67
Justin Verlander	Tigers	18	9	33	224.1	8.79	0.286	41.00%	3.37	2.97
Colby Lewis	Rangers	12	13	32	201	8.78	0.275	37.90%	3.72	3.55
Ryan Dempster	Cubs	15	12	34	215.1	8.69	0.294	47.40%	3.85	3.99
Ubaldo Jimenez	Rockies	19	8	33	221.2	8.69	0.271	48.80%	2.88	3.1
Max Scherzer	Tigers	12	11	31	195.2	8.46	0.297	40.30%	3.5	3.71
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	13	12	34	249.2	8.36	0.263	53.90%	2.27	3.04
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	20	11	33	230.1	8.32	0.275	51.60%	2.42	2.86
James Shields	Rays	13	15	33	203.1	8.28	0.341	41.30%	5.18	4.24
Dan Haren	- - -	12	12	35	235	8.27	0.311	40.50%	3.91	3.71
Wandy Rodriguez	Astros	11	12	32	195	8.22	0.303	47.90%	3.6	3.5
Roy Oswalt	- - -	13	13	32	211.2	8.21	0.253	45.70%	2.76	3.27
David Price	Rays	19	6	31	208.2	8.11	0.27	43.70%	2.72	3.42
Chad Billingsley	Dodgers	12	11	31	191.2	8.03	0.301	49.60%	3.57	3.07
Roy Halladay	Phillies	21	10	33	250.2	7.86	0.29	51.20%	2.44	3.01
Cliff Lee	- - -	12	9	28	212.1	7.84	0.287	41.90%	3.18	2.58
Ian Kennedy	Diamondbacks	9	10	32	194	7.79	0.256	37.10%	3.8	4.33
Edwin Jackson	- - -	10	12	32	209.1	7.78	0.313	49.40%	4.47	3.86
Ted Lilly	- - -	10	12	30	193.2	7.71	0.247	29.50%	3.62	4.27
Tommy Hanson	Braves	10	11	34	202.2	7.68	0.286	41.80%	3.33	3.31
Gio Gonzalez	Athletics	15	9	33	200.2	7.67	0.274	49.30%	3.23	3.78
Shaun Marcum	Blue Jays	13	8	31	195.1	7.6	0.279	38.40%	3.64	3.74
C.J. Wilson	Rangers	15	8	33	204	7.5	0.266	49.20%	3.35	3.56