Time to Dump Manny Parra?

In my primary NL-only league with Manny Parra I am in second place, two points out of first place. In a 16 team mixed league, I'm in fourth place with Manny Parra, second place without him. In the mixed league I have no choice but to hang on to him until he is either disabled or killed by some aggravated fantasy owner. (Jon is in no way endorsing such a move, regardless of his rising level of frustration -- legal department) But in the NL-only league I was holding him because I had hopes that he might turn it around. My hopes are fading fast.

A lot of my faith in Manny Parra developing into a frontline starter was based on his strong finish in 2008. Combined with his great scouting reports and glowing resume I figured I couldn't go wrong. However, since joining the major league team, Parra has seen his control degrade from good to horrid. He is still good at inducing groundballs but the homeruns still kill him. You can make the case that his luck is just awful based on three years of FIPs significantly lower than his Earned Run Averages. He has also had an elevated BABIP in the majors, he has never had one below .332 in the majors. But how much is enough? How long should you...how long CAN you wait before you have to dump a player like this for the sake of your season?

We've just passed the one third marker of the season and for me that is when worrying about slow starts and poor performances is kicked up a notch. This is when I'm doing everything I can to get value for the David Ortiz on my rosters (not that I actually rostered Ortiz, large, older players coming off of sub par seasons are not usually high on my draft list). I plan to do one round about the members of my NL-only to see if I can dump Parra on them. If not I'll FAAB the best arm on the free-agent list. I still believe in Parra's future, but I'd rather win than wait for it to happen.

Manny Parra Statistics Courtesy of FanGraphs.com

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2006	Brewers (A+)	10.04	5.27	1.91	0.66	0.234	1.45	0.316	69.40%	3.84
2006	Brewers (AA)	8.33	2.30	3.63	0.00	0.227	1.09	0.305	63.90%	2.31
2007	Brewers (AA)	9.04	2.90	3.12	0.22	0.235	1.19	0.317	73.80%	2.59
2007	Brewers (AAA)	8.65	2.42	3.57	0.35	0.170	0.85	0.225	79.70%	2.82
2007	Brewers	8.89	4.10	2.17	0.34	0.252	1.41	0.332	69.20%	3.35
2008	Brewers	7.97	4.07	1.96	0.98	0.279	1.54	0.337	71.70%	4.16
2009	Brewers	8.01	5.65	1.42	1.10	0.299	1.83	0.359	62.40%	4.90

Josh Hamilton Could Miss Two Months

Josh Hamilton's abdominal/groin injury has finally landed him on the disabled list. He underwent an MRI exam on Tuesday but the results have not been conclusive. He either has an abdominal strain which will cost him about three or four weeks on the disabled list, or he has the far more serious Sports Hernia which could cost him two months or more. Sports Hernia specialist, Dr. John Preskitt has prescribed two weeks of rest and anti-inflammatory medication. After two weeks he would probably receive another MRI and a decision would be made on whether surgery will be required.

Who knows if this was caused at least in part by the rib cage injury that caused him to miss several games. It seems like an awful big coincidence if it isn't. I am assuming that the series of injuries is responsible for his mostly mediocre performance this season. I know a lot of owners were counting on a worthy sequel to his 2008 attention grabber. The best case scenario is that this is just a mild strain and two weeks of rest and the right drugs is going to be enough. The worst case scenario would involve surgery with an 8-10 week rehab. If surgery is required Hamilton could be out until mid-August.

Hamilton owners would be wise to wait this out before entering panic mode. It is still possible that this is just a strain and Hamilton will be fine in just a couple of weeks. I am being optimistic for now. But I would not fault an owner that sold low on Hamilton during this uncertain period. In fact, trading Hamilton to a re-building owner may be the best course of action if you can get a suitable return. However, I plan to wait it out and hope for the best. I own Hamilton at a cheaper price in my primary AL-only and I think my offense would survive the extended loss.

The Rangers have called up outfielder Brandon Boggs to take Hamilton's spot on the major league roster. But I would not expect many at-bats for Boggs. Andruw Jones and Marlon Byrd are likely to get the biggest boosts to their playing time. In shallower leagues where Jones and Byrd are still available, they make excellent pick-ups. In deeper leagues you may need to settle for Boggs or make a deal for a replacement. I wish you all luck, I know I'll need it myself.

Hope for B.J. Upton Owners (and Ortiz...kinda)

I've received over a dozen e-mails from B.J. Upton owners this week. Everyone has the same question. When will Upton start to hit? Well, I obviously don't have those answers and no one possibly could. But the guys at DRaysBay.com have posted an article that just might provide Upton owners with a little hope for the future.

Tampa Bay Ray's Tickets as low as $5!


It's all based around Upton's BABIP on different types of batted balls. It does ignore Upton's reduced walk rate and elevated strikeout rate. His HR/FB is also even worse than it was last season. So there is a lot of reason to be pessimistic. That said I have complete faith that he will turn it all around this season.

From DRaysBay.com:

You can make two arguments about Upton's lack of GB hits:

1. He's lost speed.

2. He's been unlucky.

You know which way this is going. Upton's Speed Score is above his career average and his fielding remains excellent. Either he's become the most mechanically sound baserunner within the span of a season or he's still pretty damn fast. Given that Upton's strategy for stealing bases is run on the first move and outrun the relay throw to second, I'm going to go with the latter.

I still think Upton is going to be a beast this season. I wouldn't pay full price but if an owner in your league is offering discounted Upton I would leap at the deal. If you're holding Upton, you've probably received a ton of low ball offers. Keep the faith and don't give in. There is still A LOT of the season left. Check out Upton's career statistics below, courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

LABR: Big Papi has found a believer

Season	Team	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	Spd	BABIP	wOBA
2004	Devil Rays	8.60%	28.90%	0.324	0.409	0.151	5.3	0.339	0.323
2006	Devil Rays (AAA)	14.00%	22.40%	0.374	0.394	0.126	7.4	0.329	0.360
2006	Devil Rays	6.90%	22.90%	0.302	0.291	0.046	4.8	0.313	0.275
2007	Devil Rays (A+)	22.70%	11.80%	0.375	0.412	0.176	1.9	0.214	0.356
2007	Devil Rays (AAA)	0.00%	14.30%	0.429	0.857	0.429	0.1	0.400	0.562
2007	Devil Rays	12.10%	32.50%	0.386	0.508	0.209	4.9	0.399	0.387
2008	Rays	15.40%	25.20%	0.383	0.401	0.128	5.7	0.351	0.354
2008	Rays	7.00%	24.20%	0.333	0.652	0.364	8.7	0.279	0.425
2009	Rays (A+)	30.80%	22.20%	0.643	0.444	0.000	3.2	0.571	0.489
2009	Rays	11.80%	32.30%	0.297	0.290	0.086	7.4	0.290	0.282

Jake Fox May Solve Your Joey Votto Problems

The Cincinnati Reds star first baseman, Joey Votto, has been placed on the disabled list with "Stress Problems" which we're left to assume are the result of his inner ear problem. Why the Reds are calling this stress is a mystery to me. But the Reds do a lot of things I don't understand. Why was Joey Votto continuing to fly around the country with an ear infection anyway? They made a serious problem even worse by not simply putting him on the DL when they discovered the problem. They've also hesitated to disable their other injured players. Brandon Phillips is now playing with a fracture in his thumb. If he keeps batting, it will only get worse.

Mark Sheldon of MLB.com:

Dizziness from the inner ear infection that's been dogging Reds first baseman Joey Votto struck again Friday night. The club has avoided putting Votto on the disabled list for more than two weeks but that could change soon.

Votto, the team's best hitter, started against the Brewers but came out of the game before the Reds took the field for the bottom of the second inning. Catcher Ramon Hernandez moved to first base and Ryan Hanigan took over behind the plate.

After the game in the manager's office, a 40-minute closed-door meeting was held with Reds manager Dusty Baker, general manager Walt Jocketty, head trainer Mark Mann and Votto.

No roster move was announced once the door opened, but Baker said that Votto would not play on Saturday.

Votto emerged from the meeting and appeared to be in a good mood but declined to comment to reporters.

"Not right now," Votto said.

Baker was asked if Votto was OK.

"No , not really," a somber Baker responded. "He felt similar symptoms that he's been feeling in the past and just came out."

It was the third time since May 11 that dizzy spells have forced Votto out of a game. On May 21 after a battery of tests, the inner ear infection was revealed.

The conditions of the inner ear infection can be exasperated by flying, which Votto did with the club on Thursday during the off-day. Unlike with the previous incidents that happened on the West Coast following flights, the trip to Milwaukee is a relatively short one.

Replacing Votto, especially in NL-only leagues is going to be difficult. But if you're in a weekly transaction league or just a league with some owners who are slow on the draw there may be an option for you. The Chicago Cubs recently called up slugger Jake Fox. Fox is a former catcher who has struggled to find a position. He has spent most of his time recently at outfield and first base but has also spent time at third base. The guys at the Fake Teams Blog have posted an informative article that may discourage you from picking him up.

But after you're done being discouraged note Fox's slash line of .423/.503/.886 that's insanely good. I don't care how bad his defense is or what league he's been playing in or what he's been injecting (that's just a joke I haven't heard a thing). Fox is blocked by Derek Lee at first base but the Cubs could squeeze him into the outfield to fire up the offense. Fox is also a prime candidate to DH in inter-league games. I haven't checked the schedule for the Cub's AL games (okay I did, six games against the White Sox and Tigers to end June) but I'm trying to be optimistic here. Fox was leading the minors with 17 homeruns at the time he was called up. If there is a manager on the planet I trust to fit to fit a bat like this into the lineup it is Lou Pinella. I won the FAAB Bidding in my primary NL-only league with a $32 bid. Even if he doesn't play much it can't be much worse than collecting awful at-bats from the scrubs likely to be on the waiver wire at this point in the season.

Jake Fox Statistics Courtesy of FanGraphs.com

Season	Team	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA
2006	Cubs (A+)	9.80%	19.70%	0.383	0.574	0.261	0.337	55.8	21.7	0.421
2006	Cubs (AA)	4.50%	22.80%	0.304	0.435	0.166	0.326	24.2	2.6	0.336
2007	Cubs (AA)	4.50%	20.10%	0.327	0.504	0.220	0.312	57.2	11	0.367
2007	Cubs (AAA)	4.80%	23.20%	0.343	0.535	0.253	0.314	17.8	3.5	0.381
2007	Cubs	6.70%	14.30%	0.200	0.286	0.143	0.167	0.4	-1.5	0.214
2008	Cubs (AA)	10.60%	18.80%	0.397	0.580	0.273	0.324	89.3	32.8	0.428
2008	Cubs (AAA)	1.70%	26.50%	0.242	0.479	0.256	0.25	11.9	-4.4	0.305
2009	Cubs (AAA)	10.20%	18.80%	0.503	0.886	0.463	0.442	57.3	34.7	0.574
2009	Cubs	0.00%	25.00%	0.750	1.000	0.250	1	1.9	1.4	0.764

What is your favorite source of Fantasy Baseball Info?

This week's Poll Question has huge act to follow after last week's monster. Where do you get your fantasy basebll information. The Expert's Poll revealed that Pod Casts are a very popular source of information. But can they replace the more traditional sources? If you use a combination it would great if you could share to what degree you use each in the comments. I'd love to hear from as many people as last week.

Don't forget to tell us why you voted the way you did in the comments section. I really want to hear from you.

The Internet's Favorite Fantasy Baseball Expert Poll Results

I want to thanks the hundreds of people who voted in the Favorite Fantasy Baseball Expert Poll. If I had to do it again (and I think I will do it again, next year) I would do it a bit differently. First, I would use Poll Software that allowed me to list more candidates. As many different popular experts were excluded. Second, I would make it more of a tournament by splitting the various experts into different categories and make it a series of polls that would culminate in the one true favorite fantasy baseball expert. Third, I would be certain to contact all of the various contenders (before posting) to allow them the opportunity to send their fans to vote.

As it is I think we did pretty well. It should not be shocking that the largest vote-getters come from the most popular (and biggest) websites. Those are the sites that I expected to get many of the votes. More surprising was the huge support for a couple of smaller sites (in Mass Media Appeal I mean). Razzball.com was an early favorite and they were not even listed on the poll. But many voters chose "other" and wrote them in via the comments section.

Just like your fantasy league we pay out to the TOP SIX spots. Considering the hundreds of fantasy experts out there this is a pretty exclusive group.



The Winners

First Place: Lenny Melnick of Fantasy Pros 911 - I should have an interview with Lenny posted in the next few days. Lenny Melnick is old school. He and his partner Irwin Zwilling were in the original ToutWars expert league and they are former NL-only champions and two-time LABR winners. Lenny is not only knowledgeable but his podcasts and radio shows re some of the most entertaining options on BlogTalkRadio. He is always willing to lend a hand to any of his listeners, if they will only ask him for it.

Second Place: Cory Schwartz of MLB.com - I think it is very interesting that our top two vote getters are most known for their podcasts and radioshows. I think that gives us an indication of where the industry is going. Fantasy owners haven't had to scour the newsstands and bookstores to find information in a long time. But now they don't even need to read. They can just login to blogtalkradio or MLB.com's podcasts and find whatever information they need. Cory Schwartz is the Director of Statistics for MLB.com. His Fantasy 411 blog and podcast is extremely popular. It may be the most popular fantasy podcast on the net.

Third Place : Ron Shandler of BaseballHQ.com - Ron Shandler introduced many fantasy baseball participants to sabermetrics and more advanced fantasy baseball methods. Baseball HQ is also responsible for bringing many baseball fans into the fantasy sports industry. Shandler has led the campaign to make other industries take the fantasy sports industry seriously. He is the inventor of the LIMA Plan and the founder of ToutWars.

Fourth Place: Matt Berry of ESPN - Matthew Berry is one of the funniest fantasy sports writers out there. No surprise that he comes to the Fantasy Sports Industry from Hollywood. Some people love him, some hate him, but everyone reads his LOVE/HATE articles along with the tons of fantastic fantasy content available at ESPN. Before Berry took over much of the content at ESPN/fantasy was considered a joke. But now they are a site to be respected and even emulated. I probably wouldn't be writing this blog if not for Matthew Berry giving me a chance at thetalentedmrroto.com. Now, he just needs to do something about his horrible fantasy draft shows on ESPN. Call me, I have a better plan for you...

Fifth Place: Jason Grey of ESPN - Anyone who reads this site on a regular basis knows that Jason Grey is my personal favorite expert. He is trained as a baseball scout and that ability gives his great columns and blog posts a unique and valuable edge.

Sixth Place: Eric Mack of CBSportsline.com - Eric Mack is an award winning sports writer. He has been playing fantasy sports since the 80's and is one of the newer members of ToutWars. He has been with CBS Sports for 11 years and the senior fantasy sports writer for the last six years.

The Honorable Mentions: Rudy and Grey of Razzball.com, Jason Collette of Fanball.com, Jeff Erickson of Rotowire, Alex Patton of Pattonandco.com, Todd ZolaMastersball.com of , and Lawr Michaels of Creative Sports.

Here are some of the many comments in praise of their favorites...

jintman1 said...

I think everyone has that 1st guy that they read or listened too that got them up to speed on how to play Fantasy at a higher level. For me it was Cory Schwartz,the way he communicates his opinions and analysis made sense to me. But I still read and respect all of the other guys out there as well.

SRM said...

Grey at Razzball as well. Probably the only column i'd consider reading even if i didn't play fantasy baseball. Good fantasy advice and the site has a collaborative and informed comments section which Grey takes his time to be a key part of.

aleast91 said...

As I said my first year of Tout, it's always an honor to get my ass kicked by people like Ron Shandler, Jason Grey and Lawr Michaels (among others, all of whom are very talented and good people). But this list is incomplete without Jason Collette, too.

Thanks,
Cory

Patrick DiCaprio said...

there is no one funnier on a daily basis than Lenny Melnick and that is what separates him from the rest-they all know their stuff!

REDRUM said...

I'll also add that Lenny Melnick is the most ACCESSIBLE and Interactive Expert...
Ive been able to talk to him on the phone, via email, and on his live shows... Some of these other guys dont make them self as available as Lenny does....

Lenny is a born comedian as well check this link at the 25 min mark..

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/Lenny-Melnick/2009/05/08/Fantasy-Baseball-With-Lenny-Melnick

Scott said...

Shandler gives you a unique approach to fantasy approach with his hordes of stat research. Schwartz is excellent and he does a fine job of keeping the info only relevant with mixed leagues, which suits his primary audience at Mlb.com. Lenny gives you the most up to date info of fantasy relevance, but he spends HOURS reading and tracking box scores, line-up changes, and making sure he reads 3 or 4 newspapers per team a day. If you want to miss a week of fantasy baseball for any reason, just keep track of Lenny's daily podcasts. Lenny's best attribute is his experience, but he has a tendency to fall in love with certain qualities in players, which is a bad attribute, but if you can weed this out your fine. Mathew Berry is funny and his buddy Nate Ravitz, including his hot sisters, are funny and their info is tried and tested. Berry's columns are very funny and also includes some pop culture references. Berry told me over and over again to stay away from J.D. Drew...good year or not he is bad news. Berry is also good with evaluating injury time, but I doubt he realizes his own accuracy. He sure loves the spotlight, but would you blame him. He turned his fantasy baseball fanaticism to a big fortune. I read zola and listened to him online...one of the best. Erickson has the best roto site bar none with Rotowire. BaseballHQ is the next best. That would be a great poll....What website do you visit for comprehensive news and advice. Eric Mack doesn't do much, but spews out information that we all already know. His website or maybe it is him, do a good job with prospect hunting, but anybody can do it and his articles unveal my hidden gems, which means he is probably doing his job and I hat him in spite of it. I don't subscribe to the other sites, but I know Lawr Michaels from interviews and he is kind of a clone of Lenny, so I'm sure he can give you some well-rounded advice.

Scott said...

Redrum, you are very right about Lenny being funny. He sometimes loses focus in the middle of his podcasts and you never know what he's going to sing or joke about. Some of the best humor is when he talks to the audience, but he is really talking to himself and that my friends can make for some funny radio. Cory is Yoda-like. He has the most applicable info in his head and to me is one of the best because he has the best of all talents. He has experience mixed in with a great stats background. He is the brains of MLB.com. Siano has definitely picked his brain enough to become a much better fantasy press participant. Siano would choose a fantasy team of Yankees rather draft a winning fantasy franchise. Just ask him.

josefbreuer said...

among things i like about melnick, is that he doesn't try to be objective. like the one reader here remarked, you need to listen to melnick critically. still, his ability to make consistently reasonable and sound assessments is his strength. he's also down-to-earth and accessible. i'm still pretty green in FBB and have only this year been introduced to razzball.com. -- terrific collection of great minds complemented by ascerbic wit. i think jason grey's analyses are outstanding: thorough and comprehensive. i'm glad to have gotten an explanation about what limited the choices on this ballot, and would like to add kudos to mike podhorzer at fantasypros911. his leaders and laggards column is brilliant and his preseason rankings, on which i relied a lot this season, have proven very reliable.

Jason Collette said...

That's an extremely tough vote. They're all smart as hell but each has their own unique characteristic. Razzball guys are funny as hell, Melnick talks to anyone, and Schwartz is very personable, etc.

Anonymous said...

Grey & Rudy is cool, so is you Jon!

Brett Myers Out, The Phillies Seek a Replacement

One of the Phillies front line starters is now out for the season with hip surgery. At least it isn't is arm. I'm sure that is not going to make Myers owners feel any better. Coincidentally, I tried to trade for Myers in my primary AL-only league just last week and received a sound rejection. Funny, I'm sure he'd take the deal now. The Phillies are apparently ready to deal for a new secondary ace to pair with Cole Hamels.

From MLBTradeRumors.com:

Brett Myers is out for the season with hip surgery. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports spoke to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr., who said the Phillies don't have the money to add multiple starters. Instead they'll aim high, with names like Erik Bedard and Roy Oswalt speculated by Rosenthal. So, not a Brad Penny type. SI's Jon Heyman wrote about Bedard's appeal earlier today.

Rosenthal also wonders if Myers' surgery could restore some lost velocity, making him an intriguing free agent after the season.

Fantasy Owners in all leagues should be monitoring this situation closely. The Phillies are not as loaded as some teams in their minor league system but they do have a solid group of prospects that would a lot of value in trade. Since the prospects are likely to end up in the American League owners in re-building mode will want to be aware of names like these:

OF Dominic Brown - The Phillies number one prospect according to Baseball America. Brown hs been compared to Darryl Strawberry often. He is still quite raw at this point but his potential is off the charts.

RHP Carlos Carrasco - He was the number one prospect in 2008. His toughness has been questioned but his stuff is very good and his command is improving. BA likes to call him a mid-rotation starter but I think he'll be a little better than that.

SS Jason Donald - If he stays with the Phillies, Donald is likely to take over at third base in 2010. A lot of doubt his ability to produce as a regular in a major league lineup but those people are dumb.

Any other prospects involved are likely to be a few years away from the majors. The pitchers the Phillies are interested are all known quantities like Roy Oswalt, Brad Penny, Erik Bedard, and others like them on teams that have no hope. I can also see a team like the Tampa Bay Rays or Texas Rangers being willing to trade a veteran pitcher in order to fit a more talented youngster into their rotation.