I Had to Remember Michael Jackson

Thursday afternoon as I sat computerless watching Home Improvement, Just Shoot Me, Yes Dear, and Everybody Loves Raymond (anything to keep my mind off the lack of laptop) my brother called to tell me that Michael Jackson was dead. I guess at the point he called Michael Jackson was technically in a coma and not officially declared dead but it was close enough that many news outlets were already reporting it. I flipped away from TBS to watch the coverage on CNN, I wanted to know what was happening. It was sort of sad. The hundreds of people that have nothing better to do than camp outside Jackson's home and follow him everywhere he goes, had abandoned their camp to gather outside the hospital where Michael Jackson was brought by ambulance. I usually don't feel sorry for people like that but today they would soon realize that the object of their obsession was forever gone from their lives.

I loved Michael Jackson. I grew up with him. As I later told my father, Michael Jackson was my Elvis, my Beatles. I remember just as music was becoming a minor obsession of mine playing Thriller over and over again on my cheap turntable. I remember the inner sleeve had some drawings and the lyrics to all of the songs. I spent hours memorizing every track and pretending that I was in a music video. My brothers who shared a room with me hated that I would play the same tracks over and over again. But that was how I always responded when I came across something I really liked. I wanted to absorb it as much as possible. I did the same things with other albums and books, and comics.

The combination of facial surgery and disease caused Michael Jackson to be labeled a bit of a freak in the later days. Mostly by people who never loved him that much. Isn't it funny how when you truly love something or someone the flaws in it are just character enhancing? I didn't believe the worst of the rumors about him. I guess I've been falsely accused of too many things that I didn't actually do, not to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I wish that somehow Michael Jackson had managed to win back the respect of the world before his death. Yes he was still insanely popular but it became more about the spectacle than the music or the man himself. This was also MJ's goal at the time of his death. He has a record out there somewhere that was to be released relatively soon. I assume that record company exects being what they are will have it out even sooner now. His funeral will be an event that takes place on National Television. I just hope that the networks find people that truly loved him to make their ratings bonanza a tribute to Michael Jackson rather than just one last chance to capitalize on him.

Michael Jackson: HIStory - Video Greatest Hits

More Computer Problems

Yesterday my laptop fell and the hard drive actually came out. It was reinstalled but no longer works. I'm working on getting a new one ready as I write this. Yes, I have impossibly bad luck with computers...

To those waiting for responses to e-mails I apologize and will get to them as soon as possible.

The Seven Habits of Highly Effective Fantasy Owners

There is more to being a Champion than having a good draft or making killer trades. They obviously help but if you really want to win you need to adapt the attitude of an effective owner.

1. Be Proactive - An effective owner is always looking for ways to improve his team. Building an effective team starts at the draft but it is not all about trading after that. Without making snap judgments you need to identify your shortcomings and work to fix them. This is not all about trading. The waiver wire and FAAB are very useful tools that are in place to allow you to fill holes and make small improvements. Even small upgrades can make a large impact over the course of the season.
   
2. Begin with the End in Mind - Before the draft or auction, before making a trade, or even making a waiver claim the effective owner knows exactly what he hopes to achieve with any given move. He has considered the consequences and the benefits of his plan. Every move you make should be to further your ultimate goal of winning. If it does not move you towards a championship you should reconsider.
3. Put First Things First - Do not waste the time you spend managing your team on fruitless pursuits. David Wright may be your favorite player but trading Evan Longoria for him would be a mistake. Realize that your first priority is to win and not to build a collection of your favorite players. All of your focus should be on moving your team towards a championship.
4. Think Win/Win - Any deals you make should be made without sacrificing the good relationship between you and the other party. Don't use trickery or any other form of deception to complete a deal. Because if you do you may ruin any chance of making further deals with that team. Your trading partner should leave the table satisfied that he accomplished something even if they did not accomplish as much as you did.
5. Seek First to Understand, Then to be Understood - Before you can make an effective deal you need to understand the needs of your potential trading partner. By providing your rival with what he needs, you increase the opportunity to gain what you in turn require from the deal. Put yourself in their shoes and ask yourself if you would make the same deal as the owner of the other team. When you are satisfied from both their perspective and yours, you will have created a good offer.
6. Synergize - Work to create good relationships with the other team owners. The more open the lines of communication in your league the stronger the league will be as a whole. A strong league has fewer conflicts and misunderstandings. Work with the other owners to write a constitution and set of rules that satisfies all of the owners. Why have rules that a majority of the league does not like? A group of happy (or at least content) owners makes a stronger league.
7. Sharpen the Saw - Effective owners never stop learning. They constantly investigate new strategies and advanced statistics. They study the players at all levels of competition. They watch baseball and think about the game. Effective owners never think they have an unbeatable strategy because they know that eventually it will be countered. When an owner no longer studies the game he ceases to be effective.
   

The Return of Grady Sizemore and Joey Votto

If you noticed more smiles than usual around the water cooler today it may be that you are looking at the fantasy owners of Grady Sizemore and Joey Votto. It does not matter what format you were playing in or how good your team has done in the meanwhile. Getting one (or even both) of these guys back in action is like pulling off a major trade in which you gave up absolutely nothing. It feels almost as good as it hurt when you lost them in the first place.

Grady Sizemore

Sizemore is avoiding rehab in the minor leagues for the elbow injury that has bothered him since spring training. The Cleveland Indians have been calling the injury an inflamed elbow. The Indians also caution that any further set backs will likely result in season-ending elbow surgery. Sizemore is insisting that his elbow feels good and that he did not feel any pain when he tested the elbow over the weekend. We can only hope that he is telling the truth and that the tests were strenuous enough to be conclusive.

Playing through the pain did not do anything good for Sizemore's early season numbers. When he hit the disabled list he was batting .223/.309/.417 with nine homers and seven stolen bases (of 13 attempts) in 206 at-bats. It is very difficult to measure how much the injury played into his start. His walk rate was down, his strikeout rate was up but other than that everything (excluding the SB-rate) seemed to be typical of Sizemore.

There is no avoiding the fact that Sizemore is a risk for fantasy teams. A sore elbow has the potential to alter his swing and significantly change his results. It could also make him more cautious on the base paths. All that said if I had the opportunity to add Sizemore to one of my rosters I would do it without hesitation. The risk is extremely high but so is the reward. Don't part with your best cogs to add him but if you can manage it without them, I would endorse the move in leagues of every format.

Joey Votto

Unlike Sizemore, Votto has been rehabbing in the minor leagues and looks on his game. What exactly was ailing Votto has been kept under wraps by Votto and the Cincinnati Reds. We know that he had an inner-ear infection which was complicated by continuing to fly with the condition. He was forced to leave a few games with dizziness. But then he was placed on the disabled list with what the Reds called a stress-related problem. This could be almost anything from stress over the vertigo to a more serious problem they probably exacerbated by not sidelining him when the problem first occurred. Apparently the secrecy over his condition is at the request of Votto himself.

From the National Post:

"Have faith in me as a person that I would make the right decisions for myself and the ball club. I would never sell the team or the city of Cincinnati short,'' he said. "I think I give every single Cincinnati Reds fan exactly what they pay for. I feel like at times, I give more, because [baseball] engrosses my life. It takes a lot of my time emotionally and physically --off the field, too.'

Votto was on fire to start the season and was blasting homeruns even while suffering from the ear infection complications. He went on the disabled list with a slash line of .357/.464/.627 with eight homeruns and two stolen bases in just 126 at-bats. It appears to me that this was totally inline with Votto's development into a great baseball player.

I think the risk with Votto is minimal. He looks and sounds healthy and in a positive state of mind according to local reports. Which is extremely significant if stress alone truly did lead to his DL stint.

From the National Post:

"I was just joking around with people," said Votto as he smiled through a post-game interview on Sunday. "I was in such a good mood today because it's been such a struggle getting through games that I couldn't help but have a smile on my face."

I believe that Joey Votto will go directly back to proving himself one of the best players in the National League. He should hit for a great batting average and very nice power. His owners should not hesitate to activate him. If for some reason he is available in your league grabbing him should be your number one priority.

The Nationals' Search for a Closer...

The Washington Nationals are not the first team to struggle to find an acceptable closer. They have a bullpen full of cast-offs, youngsters, and specialists placed in unfavorable roles. Much of the blame can also be placed on manager Manny Acta who is not a very good manager of the bullpen and a little too protective of his starters. Joel Hanrahan and Garrett Mock could both probably grow into the role given time. Joe Beimel and Jesus Colome could do the job if used correctly. Even Julian Tavarez...okay, maybe not Tavarez. But the point is that an effective closer is created not born and Manny Acta needs a reliever to come almost fully formed before he'll be able to spot the closer in the stone.

Although Mike MacDougal has not yet blown the opportunity to cement himself as the latest Washington closer I have my doubts they he can hold on to the job. This is mostly because of things like his 1.87 WHIP, 7.80 BB9 , and mediocre 5.40 K9. The good news is I believe a very good candidate for the role has just presented himself. His name is Tyler Clippard.

Clippard was well on his way to becoming a mediocre, end-of-the-rotation starter. I do not mean that to be insulting. There are thousands of people that would do almost anything short of murder to be an end-of-the-rotation starter on a major league baseball team. But being a starter is no longer the plan for Clippard. This season the Nationals moved him into the bullpen at Triple-A Syracuse with extremely good results. Clippard's already good stuff suddenly looks great as has often happened when starters move to the bullpen. In 37.2 innings, Clippard has 41 strikeouts to just 15 walks. That is not stellar control but it is a huge improvement over MacDougal. His 2009 era is just 0.96 with a WHIP of 0.93. Now a lot of that is good fortune, he will not maintain .216 BABIP forever. He is an an extreme fly ball pitcher but has always managed to limit the damage from homeruns...in the minors anyway. A lot of those flyballs are of the infield variety which is a pitcher skill that is not mentioned often.

In most leagues you will be able to pick up Clippard easily or FAAB him for a buck or so. I believe that it will prove to be a very wise choice for those on the hunt for saves. At the very least I think Clippard will be a fine relief pitcher, of value to NL-only teams whether he closes or not.

Dice-K Removed From Red Sox Rotation

It was obvious that eventually the Red Sox would have to make a change in their rotation. With John Smoltz healthy and ready to go and every other starter currently outperforming him, Daisuke Matsuzaka was the odd man out. This is from a Boston.com report on manager Terry Francona's afternoon press conference.

"We need to get him looked at physically," said Francona. "He's gonna get looked at by (Red Sox trainer) Tom Gill. He's going to get tests done. There's a potential for MRIs. All of that information will be coming very soon."

Terry Francona and the Red Sox seem to be blaming Dice-K's appearances in the World Baseball Classic for leaving him unprepared for the regular season. While he is currently only assured of missing one start I believe that the Red Sox intend to see his velocity returned to its former level and an improvement in his control before he will pitch in the major leagues again.

This also takes some of the heat off the Red Sox to trade one of their rotation starters. Brad Penny has been a competent starter for the Red Sox and should continue to be as long as he stays healthy. Unfortunately this will do nothing to release Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden from their minor league purgatory.

Dice-K owners should thank their lucky stars that they won't be punished with his poor statistics for a while. I would not drop Matsuzaka if you have the ability to stash him in your reserves. Dice-K is a very talented pitcher and when he is "on" he is an asset to a fantasy team.

Statistics Courtesy of FanGraphs.com

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
1999	Lions (NPB)	7.55	4.35	0.70	0.196	1.17	0.236	82.20%	4.12
2000	Lions (NPB)	7.73	5.10	0.64	0.218	1.35	0.267	68.20%	4.18
2001	Lions (NPB)	8.01	4.38	1.01	0.214	1.25	0.253	75.60%	4.44
2002	Lions (NPB)	9.57	1.84	1.60	0.225	1.02	0.267	81.50%	4.28
2003	Lions (NPB)	9.97	2.92	0.60	0.232	1.18	0.314	75.90%	2.97
2004	Lions (NPB)	7.83	2.59	0.43	0.286	1.42	0.357	80.20%	3.07
2005	Lions (NPB)	9.46	2.05	0.54	0.221	1.03	0.295	78.90%	2.71
2006	Lions (NPB)	9.66	1.64	0.63	0.208	0.92	0.277	79.70%	2.56
2007	Red Sox	8.84	3.52	1.10	0.249	1.32	0.306	73.90%	4.23
2007	Red Sox	7.78	3.66	0.46	0.284	1.53	0.353	67.60%	3.54
2008	Red Sox (AAA)	9.00	1.80	0.00	0.221	1.00	0.305	60.00%	1.80
2008	Red Sox	8.27	5.05	0.64	0.213	1.32	0.267	80.60%	4.03
2008	Red Sox	9.00	5.06	1.69	0.274	1.63	0.325	82.60%	5.26
2009	Red Sox (AAA)	10.80	3.86	0.00	0.215	1.20	0.323	86.70%	2.34
2009	Red Sox	8.74	4.63	2.06	0.374	2.20	0.441	68.90%	5.72

Trade Advice: Chipper/Slowey for Valverde/Bartlett

Jon,

I have a deep pitching staff in a 12 person H2H league. I was looking to shop Kevin Slowey and Chipper Jones for Jose Valverde and Jason Bartlett. Is this a good deal?

Best Regards,

Robert

Hey Robert,

Thanks for reading. I really appreciate it.

Let's look at all of the players involved individually and then make a decision on the trade offer.

As I'm sure you know, Jose Valverde has had a few injury problems this season. Thankfully, the problems have been with his calf rather than his arm. Assuming the leg is fully healed he should have no problems. When healthy he is one of the better closing talents in baseball. I think he'll have a big second half.

Jason Bartlett is having the best season of his career thus far. He will continue to steal bases at a terrific rate. But I do not believe he can maintain his present 27 percent line drive rate, and .rage is 410 BABIP. His batting average is likely to keep dipping through the second half. His plate discipline has improved slightly. He is swinging at better pitches. Unfortunately, it hasn't translated into an increased walk rate. I believe he has become a better hitter but I do not think his power increase is real. I think he'll hit for a decent batting average, steal lots of bases but without the power he showed to start the season.

I like Kevin S lowey's potential a lot. He rarely walks anyone and has an excellent K/BB rate which is a sign of a talented pitcher. On the unfortunate side, Slowey is a fly ball pitcher. He is often hurt by the homerun, which is what led to his poor start this season. He has turned things around lately and I believe that he will finish the season strongly.

Chipper Jones is an excellent hitter with good power. He is having his typical season of high productivity between bouts with nagging injuries. He is presently having a problem with a sore toe but is mostly battling through it. I think he'll finish the season in this same typical fashion with a .300-plus average and 20-plus homers.

So what would you gain from this trade? Definitely stolen bases and saves, which I assume is what you are hoping to gain. You will lose some power if I'm right about Bartlett's drop off. You will also lose some innings and wins (naturally going from a starter to a reliever). I don't know the rest of your team but I assume your remaining starters are up to the job and you probably are not depending on Chipper's power.

I would do it if I were you.

Thanks again for reading.

Jon Williams
Advanced Fantasy Baseball