Showing posts with label Amateur Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Amateur Draft. Show all posts

Saturday, July 27, 2013

Many Top-Rated Starting Pitchers Were Amateur Draft First-Rounders

By Ben Hargrove


Whether you play in fantasy baseball leagues for money or for fun, it is important that you pay attention to which players were drafted highly in real-life fantasy baseball leagues. That’s because there is a correlation between the two.

14 of the 17 starting pitchers drafted highest in Yahoo! fantasy drafts this season were selected in the first round of Major League baseball’s June amateur draft. Two pitchers – Felix Hernandez and Yu Darvish – were international pitchers not subject to the draft. The only pitcher in the top 17 who was drafted outside of the first round was Cliff Lee, who was a fourth-round pick of the Montreal Expos in 2000. 

Two top-rated starting pitchers were first-overall picks (Stephen Strasburg, 2009, and David Price, 2007). Justin Verlander was picked second overall in 2004. But being drafted first or second does not guarantee stardom. The three other pitchers picked first or second from 2002 to 2007 were Bryan Bullington, drafted first by the Pirates in 2002, Luke Hochevar, drafted first by the Royals in 2006 and Greg Reynolds, drafted second by the Rockies in 2006.  And it’s not as if 2006 was a weak year for pitchers - Clayton Kershaw (drafted seventh by the Dodgers), Tim Lincecum and Max Scherzer were all picked in the top 11.

Six of the top-rated 14 were top-ten picks (Verlander, Kershaw, Strasburg, Price, Madison Bumgarner (drafted tenth by the Giants in 2007) and Zack Greinke (drafted sixth by the Royals in 2002)).

Five of the 14 were picked in the second ten – Jered Weaver, Angel s (2004, 12th pick), Chris Sale, White Sox (2010, 13), Cole Hamels, Phillies (2002, 17), R.A. Dickey, Texas (1996, 18) and CC Sabathia (1998, 20).

Matt Cain was drafted 25th by the Giants in 2002, Adam Wainwright was drafted 29th by the Braves in 2000 and Gio Gonzalez was a supplemental first-rounder, going 38th to the White Sox in 2004.

Five other pitchers picked in the top 30 starting pitchers in Yahoo! fantasy drafts were first-rounders: Roy Halladay, Toronto (1995, 17), Scherzer, Arizona (2006, 11), Brandon Morrow, Seattle (2006, 5), Lincecum, Giants (2006, 10) and Ian Kennedy, Yankees (2006, 21).

In 2013, breakout young pitchers Matt Harvey of the Mets (2010, 7) and Shelby Miller of the Cardinals (2009, 19) were drafted in the first round. Mike Minor went seventh to the Braves in 2009.

Miami rookie Jose Fernandez was drafted 14th in 2011.  Trevor Bauer, now with Cleveland, was drafted third by Arizona in 2011.

In late May, Baltimore called up Kevin Gausman (2012, 4), St. Louis called up Michael Wacha (2012, 19) and Arizona called up Tyler Skaggs (a supplemental first-rounder drafted 40th by the Angels in 2009).

 Ben Hargrove writes on fantasy baseball leagues for money topics for sites like DraftStreet.com.             

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Many Top-Rated Hitters Were Amateur Draft First-Rounders

By Ben Hargrove

The Major League Baseball amateur draft, which is held in early June each year, does not get the same kind of attention as the NFL or NBA drafts. As cash fantasy baseball fans know, even successful draft choices generally take a few years to reach the majors.  Many first-rounders fall well short of stardom, or even getting to the majors.  But plenty of star players were originally drafted in the first round, including 12 of the 25 highest-drafted hitters in Yahoo! fantasy leagues this season.

Three of these hitters were number one overall picks – Bryce Harper by Washington in 2010, Justin Upton by Arizona in 2005 and Josh Hamilton by Tampa Bay in 1999. Joe Mauer (2001, Minnesota), Adrian Gonzalez (2000, Florida) and Alex Rodriguez (1993, Seattle) were also top overall picks. 

But several other hitters picked first overall have not enjoyed that sort of success, including Delmon Young (2003, Tampa Bay), Matt Bush (2004, San Diego) and Tim Beckham (2008, Tampa Bay). (Beckham is still only 23, but is no longer considered a top prospect.)

Along with Harper, Upton and Hamilton, five other players drafted among Yahoo!’s top 25 were top-ten MLB draft choices:  Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay (2006, third pick), Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (2005, 5), Buster Posey (2008, 5), Prince Fielder, Milwaukee (2002, 7) and Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (2005, 7).

2005 was quite a year for hitters at the top of the draft, with Alex Gordon, picked second by the Royals and Ryan Zimmerman, picked fourth by the Nationals, joining Upton, Braun and Tulowitzki in the top seven.  But Jeff Clement, picked third by Seattle in 2005, has been a bust.

The remaining four first-rounders in Yahoo!’s top 25 drafted hitters are Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh, 2005, 11), Jason Heyward (Atlanta, 2007, 14), Mike Trout (Angels, 2009, 25) and David Wright (Mets, 2001 supplemental, 38).

Five of Yahoo!’s top 25 drafted hitters were international players who were not part of the amateur draft:  Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Carlos Gonzalez, Adrian Beltre and Jose Reyes.

Two of the most prominent hitter callups so far in 2013 – Jurickson Profar and Yasiel Puig – were also international free agents not subject to the draft.

But two other 2013 hitter callups were first-rounders – Anthony Rendon, Washington (2011, 6) and Nick Franklin, Seattle (2009, 27).

Wil Myers, expected to be the next big hitter callup sometime in June, was drafted in the third round by Kansas City in 2009 before being traded to Tampa Bay this past offseason.

 Ben Hargrove writes on cash fantasy baseball topics for sites like DraftStreet.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Hot Prospect: Matt Young PLUS Some Other Stuff...

Sometimes really smart people do stupid things. They do things like dismiss a prospect entirely based on his age or his height. That's dumb. Yes, your age at a given level is an indication of a player's talent and skill level but it isn't everything. And at least in baseball, size doesn't matter. Matt Young is 26-years old and short. He is a very good prospect.

Young was a fantastic High School Player for Plano East High School where he made the All-Texas Team. At the University of New Mexico he was a Freshman All-American. He led the Mid-West Conference in walks and On-Base Percentage. His sophomore year he led the conference in walks and steals. His junior year he hit .381 and led the MWC in triples. He went undrafted but signed as a free agent with the Braves.

With the Rome Braves in 2005 he hit .312/.412/.409 with 85 runs and he had a .992 fielding percentage in center field. He led the Braves organization in OBP and runs scored. In 2006 with Myrtle Beach he hit .281/.389/.375 with 30 doubles and 71 walks, while playing excellent defense and stealing 21 bases. In 2007 he missed time due to injuries but still had a .381 on-base percentage for the Pelicans. He was promoted to double-A and struggled for the first time in his life batting .242/.308/.305 in 33 games. In 2008 repeating double-A he hit .289/.384/.385 with 30 stolen bases.

Last fall the Braves sent Young to the Arizona Fall League, a prospect showcase and he sparkled hitting .367/.426/.571. But for some reason the Braves sent him back to double-A Mississippi where he is presently hitting .281/.409/.393 with 33 stolen bases in 427 at-bats. Young looks like another Nyjer Morgan (maybe not quite as good the base stealer --more on him later). Remember last weekk when we discussed the way teams are going to change? Young is a perfect example of the type of player that will be receiving more chances in the majors than in past years. The Braves haven't shown many signs of including him in their plans (I believe he'll be Rule V eligible) but he should be on the radar of fantasy owners as a potential steal source.

Some Other Stuff...

Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated is suggesting that Major League Baseball is almost certain to have a slotting system for Amateur Draft picks in place by the 2012 draft. This is a great idea. MLB should model their plan after the NBA's and eliminate arbitration altogether. It seems to me that the problem with baseball's present system is not so much that the Free Agents demand so much money. The true problem is that the arbitration eligible players demand so much and and often are not worth it. But under the present rules teams are screwed if they don't offer arbitration.

Should the Twins have to pay Delmon Young $3-4 million dollars next year to keep him around? No, but they will because it would be far worse to let him go for nothing before they even managed to squeeze a good season out of him. This is why the NBA's restricted free agent process is so much better. The player can still get a huge payday if he's worth it (as Tim Lincecum absolutely is) but guys like Young (and the dozens just like him) get the raise without the ridiculous demands attached.

***

Tyler Hissey of MVN's Around the Majors blog has put together some rankings of this winter's class of free agent pitchers. He has three different lists but here's the FIP rankings. Check out the Around the Majors blog for the others.

Free Agent Pitchers By Fielding Independent Pitching:

Joel Pineiro: 3.04
Erik Bedard: 3.54
John Lackey: 3.79
Jose Contreras: 3.96
Randy Wolf: 3.98
Jason Marquis: 4.00
Andy Pettitte: 4.12
Tim Wakefield: 4.19
Carl Pavano: 4.26
Rich Harden: 4.46
Kevin Millwood: 4.56
Brad Penny: 4.57
Doug Davis: 4.59
Jon Garland: 4.64
Vicente Padilla: 4.83
Jarrod Washburn: 4.86

***
Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle is daydreaming about an unlimited budget for free agents to boost the Houston Astros back into contention. He suggests that the dream lineup for 2010 would look like this:

C--Jason Castro.
1b--Lance Berkman.
2b--Felipe Lopez.
3b--Miguel Tejada.
SS--Tommy Manzella.
LF--Carlos Lee.
CF--Michael Bourn.
RF--Hunter Pence.

SP--Roy Oswalt.
SP--Wandy Rodriguez.
SP--Bud Norris.
SP--Justin Duchscherer.
SP--John Lackey.

Plus some undefined changes to the bullpen...Is this the best he can do? I bet everyone reading this can do better without adding more than $30 million to their $102 million dollar payroll. Use Cot's Baseball Contracts if you'd like to show me how much better you can do...(yes, hint, hint).

***

The Chicago Cubs have finally been sold. After years of rumors and at least two years of negotiations the Cubs (or 95 percent of them) are now the property of the Ricketts family for a cool $845 million. Hopefully, this will free the Cubs to do whatever it takes to finally return to the World Series and even to win one. The Cubs were severely hampered by this process in Spring Training when they attempted to acquire Jake Peavy or another top starter. The Cubs should make big moves this fall.

***

Who says the Mets don't have any prospects? He came into the spotlight this week when he made Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet, but Kirk Nieuwenhuis is not just the flavor of the week. He was a third round pick in 2008 and just had his 22nd birthday. He'll be moving quickly through the Mets organization if this keeps up. This week's hot sheet also includes my second favorite prospect ( after Michael Stanton), Brett Wallace. Check out the write ups on the whole list which is not behind the subscriber wall.

***

Early this season I was a doubter when it came to Nyjer Morgan. I was not discounting his ability to play good defense and steal bases. I just did not think the Pittsburgh Pirates were the type of team to allow an older player like Morgan a full-time opportunity. I thought they would lean on their younger players even if it hurt a little. I should have known better. But I am now as big a Nyjer Morgan fan as there is. I love to see that guys like Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post are also on the bandwagon.

The Washington Nationals are quickly becoming my second favorite team. Now that Mike Rizzo is the GM I'm confident that they will continue to make all the right moves. They are closer than you think to being a contender. They have the key parts of a quality offense. If you can't find a way to score runs with a speedster with on-base skills like Nyjer Morgan, an on-base machine like Nick Johnson (I know he's gone but still...) and middle of the order bats like Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn (who should be moving to first base next season), and Josh Willingham you should be fired. Just ask Manny Acta.

Rizzo will keep building up the farm system. This time next season Stephen Strasburg should be the best pitching prospect in the country (if he isn't already) and about to join the Nationals' rotation (if he isn't already there). I enjoyed reading how the Nationals led by Mike Rizzo out-maneuvered super agent Scott Boras. The stories are probably overblown but Strasburg apparently always intended to sign provided he received a fair offer. So when the Nats discovered this and stuck to their record breaking (but far from the 25-50 million Boras was supposedly looking for) offer, and given his client's wishes, Boras had to accept it.

Strasburg is far from flawless but he is deserving of the attention he is receiving. Despite the hype you can count on the Nationals doing the right thing. They'll keep Strasburg in the minors where he belongs until he proves himself. Do not expect to see him in the majors before mid-June, if even that soon.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Hot Prospect: Stephen Strasburg


Usually, when a pitcher is able to throw his fastball with triple-digit velocity you can be almost certain that he'll also have trouble controlling it. This is not the case with San Diego State's Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg regularly blows up radar guns and he does it with a minuscule walk rate.

Strasburg is almost guaranteed to be the first pick of the 2009 Amateur Draft and become the property of the Washington Nationals. The Nationals cannot afford to screw up another first round pick and that is exactly what they would be doing by selecting anyone else. Scouts and analysts are rating him higher than even the very best picks of recent years. Only freaks like Doc Gooden and pitchers of that rare ability even come close.

Pitching Statistics












Year Age Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SV IP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
2007 18 NCAA 1 3 2.43 25 0 0 7 37 4.4 0 3.6 11 0.89
2008 19 NCAA 8 3 1.57 13 13 4 0 97 5.6 0.1 1.5 12 0.79





San Diego State Aztecs Profile Page

Jason Churchill's Prospect Insider - Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg's WikiPedia Page


The Washington Post collects gushy quotes about Strasburg