Showing posts with label Stephen Strasburg. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stephen Strasburg. Show all posts

Friday, January 06, 2012

Stephen Strasburg vs. Clayton Kershaw


Over at The Hardball Times, Nick Fleder posted an article ranking his and two other writers' top 25 under age 25 Dynasty League Players. Several readers commented their surprise that all three writers had placed Stephen Strasburg ahead of Clayton Kershaw. The writer argued that Strasburg's upside was better than Kershaw's in the long term, and further suggesting that the 2011 season was as good as it would get for Kershaw. I wondered if this was true.

Nick Fleder:
Strasburg in my mind has higher upside that Kershaw. Yes, Clayton is incredible, but I doubt he’ll ever improve on his 2011 season, and he might regress a bit, where Strasburg might be able to pull several Kershaw 2011s, or potentially a better season. Higher K upside, similar WHIP upside, and as good a shot to put up 20 wins per year on the offensively-adept Nationals. I’ll back this up with some more numbers a little later. The case, I readily concede, can be made that Kershaw could be #1. Stanton, Harper, I’d argue vehemently, shouldn’t be in consideration for the top spot.
Ben Pritchett:

To tease us, the Nationals brought back Strasburg for a five-start stretch that saw him post a 9.0 strikeout-per-nine rate and two walks. That’s two walks, period! His FIP in this vacuum was an unbelievable 1.28. To go along with those ridiculous stats, he was also the best pitcher in the game from the moment he made start number one to the end of the 2011 season.

That combined with what I’ve seen as far as skills, pedigree, and scouting grade makes him the most valuable keeper prospect I’ve seen in years if not ever. I love Kershaw. I have him as my number one starter next year. I also think that Kershaw should outperform Strasburg in 2012. But as a “Keeper”, Strasburg will dominate this list, health-permitting, for 2013 and beyond.

Josh Shepardson:

I think we can all agree, both starters are incredibly desirable in keeper/dynasty formats. In general, I tend to slant toward hitters in these formats over pitchers, and in submitting my rankings to Nick, mentioned that it physically pained me to include three pitchers in the top 4. That said, those pitchers are tremendous.

With that in mind, if I’m going to start a dynasty league roster with a pitcher, I’m shooting the moon. Someone addressed Strasburg’s conditioning above, and that is an issue of the past, as another reader was quick to point out. As far as mechanics go, I’m beginning to believe mechanics experts may not know their… from a a hole in the ground. Obviously, it is probably better for a pitcher to have a low effort delivery than a high effort one. Beyond that, I’m starting to lean in the direction of some pitchers being built to pile up innings, and other not. So far, Kershaw has shown the skill and good fortune of remaining healthy to rack up innings pitched, and Strasburg has not. But, I don’t think that means there is no risk of Kershaw breaking down. Pitching is inherently bad for the shoulder/arm/elbow.

When both pitchers are healthy, there is no argument that Strasburg has been the better pitcher. Yes, he has just 7 starts under his belt, but in those seven starts he has been better in all three facets of controllable pitcher skills. His K/9 is nearly two full batters higher than Kershaw’s in his career, and more impressively, his K% is 6.6% better. Kershaw has made strides in both marks, but still lags behind Strasburg. Kershaw also trails Strasburg in walk rate, and ground ball rate. Kershaw had his best walk rate by a wide margin this year, but it was also his first year below 3.50 BB/9. Maybe he’ll sustain that, but maybe he won’t. Comparatively, Strasburg’s walk rate in his healthy rookie debut was 2.25 BB/9, and was better post Tommy John surgery at 0.75 BB/9 (which is not sustainable).

The potentially bigger gap could come in groundball rate. Prior to his injury, Strasburg sported a 47.8 percent groudball rate. Post surgery he had a flyball centric approach, so there are questions about where he’ll land on that spectrum. At this point in Kershaw’s career, though, it looks like his groundball rate is safe to project in the low-40 percent range (was up to 43.2 percent in 2011, a mark that was better than those in 2009 and 2010).

All-in-all, the total package favors Strasburg. To neglect to acknowledge there is a health risk attached to him would be wrong, but just how much greater is that risk that Kershaw? I’m not sure that can be quantified, plenty of pitchers have returned from TJ and not had further health issues. The biggest question for me was answered when he got back to the big leagues this past season.

Clayton Kershaw
Season GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
2008 21 107.2 8.36 4.35 0.92 0.320 75.70% 48% 12% 4.26 4.08 3.91 1.4
2009 30 171 9.74 4.79 0.37 0.269 77.50% 39% 4% 2.79 3.08 3.85 4.1
2010 32 204.1 9.34 3.57 0.57 0.275 76.20% 40% 6% 2.91 3.12 3.64 4.7
2011 33 233.1 9.57 2.08 0.58 0.269 78.60% 43% 7% 2.28 2.47 2.84 6.8

Stephen Strasburg
Season GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
2010 12 68 12.18 2.25 0.66 0.319 72.70% 48% 10% 2.91 2.08 2.04 2.6
2011 5 24 9 0.75 0 0.242 70.60% 38% 0% 1.5 1.28 2.43 1.1

It has been a long time since a pitcher has come along with as much build-up as Stephen Strasburg. By the time he left San Diego State University most baseballs fans (not to mention prospect gurus) were already drooling over his potential. He was the number one overall pick and his last minute signing by the Washington Nationals was considered a triumphant success for the organization and it's new general manager, Mike Rizzo.

Clayton Kershaw was the 7th overall pick of the 2006 Amateur Draft. After just two seasons in the minors, Kershaw was called up to the majors on May 25th of the 2008 season. He has never been anything but a huge success for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has improved in every season as a major leaguer going from promising prospect to Cy Young Award winner before his 24th birthday.

Kershaw is just a few months older than Strasburg but already has three full seasons and a Cy Young award to his credit. Winning the Cy Young does not necessarily make you the better pitcher in Major League Baseball or Fantasy Baseball but it is a major point of success. At essentially the same age as Kershaw, Strasburg has missed a year due to Tommy John Surgery and has a total of just 256 professional innings. Kershaw has over a thousand professional innings including 716 in the majors.

The National's promising ace is hurt in this debate by the small sample sizes in his performance. Strasburg has less than a hundred innings in the majors and although his 68 and 24 inning samples have been spectacular, he is far from the first pitcher to look great in such a small sample. At the moment we have no idea if Strasburg is durable enough to make it through an entire season in the major leagues with starts every fifth day. Kershaw has done this three times already, increasing his strength and durability each season while also improving his performance.

In the majors thus far Strasburg has 92 innings in 17 starts. He has strong performance indicators with an 11.35 K9, 1.86 BB9, 45 percent groundball rate, and a 2.14 xFIP. This stellar performance and the glowing scouting reports are what the THT writers are speculating on when they rank him ahead of Kershaw. If Strasburg could maintain numbers like that for 134 more innings he would have roughly Kershaw's 2011 season. But with the ebb and flow of a major league season, it is extremely hard to believe that the inexperienced Strasburg is ready to pitch at a Cy Young Award level for 200-plus innings.

Despite all this the question that needs to be answered is what will happen from this point forward. Kershaw has improved his IP, K9, BB9, GB%, and xFIP in each of the last three seasons and at just 23 years old is not yet considered in his peak performance years. Most pitchers his age are still in the minors. There is no reason to think that Kershaw has reached a plateau nor that he cannot continue to improve. In Kershaw we have a young left-handed ace that should continue to pitch at a Cy Young worthy level for many years assuming he can maintain his current durability.

Strasburg had a great college career and blew through the minors about as fast as it can be done if the pitcher's organization is serious about seeing him succeed at every level and the Nationals were. He sandwiched two great (but short) performances around an elbow injury and Tommy John Surgery. In those short stints, Strasburg was every bit as good as Kershaw was in his Cy Young season, maybe even better. His future depends on staying healthy and being able to make adjustments as great major league hitters learn his stuff. The odds of him staying healthy? I'll call it even. The odds of him making the necessary adjustments? Pretty damn good, I'd say.

Choosing between the two is largely a question of how much risk you enjoy taking with your fantasy team. Kershaw and Strasburg reached their current levels in different fashions but the end result is an ace starter (Kershaw) and a potential ace (Strasburg). They can both probably pitch at a Cy Young level for several years if they stay healthy. The risk in this regard is far higher with Strasburg than with Kershaw. In my opinion picking Strasburg over Kershaw at this point is mostly about wanting to have that huge name achieve greatness for the first time on your roster. It is the same thing that makes some owners over reach for rookies, Japanese imports and whatever hot name comes along. The difference in talent is not as huge as the hype might lead you to believe. The pick here is obviously Kershaw, this is based almost entirely on avoiding risk.

Friday, August 27, 2010

Stephen Strasburg Needs Tommy John Surgery

The Washington Nationals are getting a second opinion but they have announced that Stephen Strasburg has a significant tear to ligaments in his elbow and will likely require Tommy John Surgery. He will certainly miss the rest of this season and likely most of 2011 as well. This is bad news, not just to fantasy baseball fans, but also to Major League Baseball.

Strasburg was one of the few personalities in the game that could draw sell-out crowds to the park. He was and still is a huge part of the Washington Nationals future. TJS is not a death sentence for pitchers. Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano and Tim Hudson are just a few examples of the major talents that have recovered and thrived after the procedure. Some pitchers have even claimed to be stronger than they ever were before. Typically those undergoing TJS are out of action for a year and need most of a season of pitching again to regain their top level of performance. But not always.

Those in typical keeper leagues that allow you to keep a player for three seasons without signing him long term are probably screwed unless they have incredible faith. Faith both in Stephen Strasburg's eventual return and their ability to draft a winning team short his cost and roster spot. While he should return in 2012 (maybe even the end of 2011) betting on an immediate return to top quality is unwise.


Down the Stretch: The Top Starting Pitchers of 2010


Stephen Strasburg is already at the top of this list. However, he still needs to show he has the durability to produce over the course of a long season. Francisco Liriano is back to being one of the best in the game two years after his Tommy John Surgery. Josh Johnson is also proof that TJS is no longer a death sentence for a pitcher. It is however, hell on keeper lists.

Name Team K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 WHIP BABIP LOB% ERA FIP xFIP
Stephen Strasburg Nationals 12.18 2.25 5.41 0.66 1.07 0.338 72.70% 2.91 2.1 2.17
Francisco Liriano Twins 9.81 2.97 3.3 0.18 1.28 0.35 72.80% 3.45 2.33 3
Josh Johnson Marlins 8.7 2.2 3.95 0.37 1.08 0.301 78.90% 2.36 2.52 3.26
Cliff Lee - - - 7.78 0.57 13.73 0.67 0.98 0.301 69.60% 3.09 2.55 3.28
Roy Halladay Phillies 8.09 1.09 7.44 0.7 1.02 0.301 82.20% 2.22 2.75 2.89
Adam Wainwright Cardinals 8.09 2.22 3.64 0.52 1 0.265 81.20% 2.18 2.86 3.18
Brett Anderson Athletics 6.71 1.43 4.7 0.43 1.13 0.307 74.90% 2.86 2.9 3.36
Yovani Gallardo Brewers 9.78 3.79 2.58 0.5 1.34 0.332 72.20% 3.28 2.99 3.49
Felix Hernandez Mariners 8.46 2.47 3.43 0.62 1.11 0.29 76.40% 2.47 3.03 3.26
Tommy Hanson Braves 8.29 2.76 3 0.47 1.26 0.322 70.30% 3.53 3.12 4.07
Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 8.29 3.51 2.36 0.43 1.1 0.26 77.40% 2.66 3.13 3.75
Mat Latos Padres 9.08 2.52 3.6 0.82 0.98 0.252 84.00% 2.33 3.15 3.4
Brandon Morrow Blue Jays 10.81 4.06 2.66 0.66 1.36 0.341 69.10% 4.39 3.18 3.7
Anibal Sanchez Marlins 7.04 3.16 2.23 0.36 1.31 0.312 71.40% 3.16 3.2 4.21
Chad Billingsley Dodgers 7.58 3.08 2.46 0.43 1.32 0.32 71.50% 3.7 3.21 3.91
Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 9.53 3.94 2.42 0.55 1.25 0.298 76.30% 3.07 3.22 3.89
Jon Lester Red Sox 9.17 3.2 2.86 0.66 1.18 0.295 74.40% 3.26 3.24 3.35
Felipe Paulino Astros 7.95 4.5 1.77 0.21 1.51 0.338 61.40% 4.4 3.24 4.59
Zack Greinke Royals 7.66 1.97 3.89 0.78 1.2 0.313 67.20% 3.83 3.3 3.72
Jered Weaver Angels 9.78 2.43 4.02 1.09 1.11 0.295 75.90% 3.21 3.31 3.55
Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 7.23 2.22 3.26 0.7 1.22 0.309 68.70% 3.56 3.32 3.6
Roy Oswalt - - - 8.26 2.38 3.47 0.83 1.1 0.28 74.50% 3.22 3.34 3.48
Justin Verlander Tigers 8.45 3.33 2.54 0.63 1.24 0.298 73.30% 3.65 3.34 4.06
Tim Lincecum Giants 9.46 3.5 2.7 0.77 1.35 0.331 75.10% 3.72 3.35 3.43
Tom Gorzelanny Cubs 8.2 3.98 2.06 0.48 1.45 0.334 70.40% 3.82 3.35 4.21
Jaime Garcia Cardinals 7.07 3.44 2.06 0.45 1.25 0.287 75.70% 2.42 3.37 3.74
John Danks White Sox 6.95 2.78 2.5 0.59 1.15 0.275 73.10% 3.31 3.37 4.05
Gavin Floyd White Sox 7.44 2.76 2.7 0.66 1.32 0.32 70.20% 3.91 3.4 3.76
Colby Lewis Rangers 8.7 2.79 3.12 0.84 1.17 0.291 75.60% 3.4 3.4 3.89
Ricky Romero Blue Jays 7.76 3.18 2.44 0.59 1.28 0.304 72.20% 3.5 3.4 3.6
David Price Rays 8.33 3.71 2.25 0.57 1.26 0.292 76.20% 2.97 3.41 4
R.A. Dickey Mets 6.06 2.21 2.74 0.64 1.17 0.285 77.70% 2.64 3.44 3.69
Johan Santana Mets 6.59 2.55 2.58 0.67 1.18 0.283 79.10% 2.94 3.48 4.34
Brett Myers Astros 7.03 2.58 2.73 0.76 1.23 0.297 75.40% 3.08 3.51 3.76
Jeff Francis Rockies 5.73 1.94 2.95 0.68 1.27 0.31 64.40% 4.56 3.53 3.96
Jhoulys Chacin Rockies 9.28 4.27 2.18 0.64 1.28 0.291 70.50% 3.63 3.53 3.72
Doug Fister Mariners 4.99 1.69 2.96 0.63 1.25 0.305 67.40% 3.87 3.57 4.21
Jason Hammel Rockies 7.32 2.4 3.05 0.82 1.3 0.32 69.40% 4.35 3.57 3.75
Matt Cain Giants 7.01 2.81 2.49 0.72 1.14 0.269 74.80% 3.07 3.57 4.38
Wandy Rodriguez Astros 7.69 2.97 2.59 0.73 1.35 0.324 67.50% 4 3.58 3.8
CC Sabathia Yankees 7.24 2.93 2.48 0.72 1.22 0.288 77.00% 3.02 3.59 3.88
Clayton Richard Padres 7.1 3.61 1.97 0.56 1.4 0.316 76.10% 3.55 3.6 4.13
C.J. Wilson Rangers 7.35 4.01 1.84 0.44 1.21 0.263 74.10% 3.02 3.6 4.25
Clay Buchholz Red Sox 6.2 3.42 1.81 0.45 1.2 0.265 79.40% 2.26 3.61 4.21
Gio Gonzalez Athletics 7.49 3.97 1.89 0.56 1.27 0.279 75.80% 3.24 3.63 4.14
Travis Wood Reds 7.19 2.49 2.88 0.88 0.98 0.23 67.20% 3.38 3.71 4.33
Dallas Braden Athletics 5.64 1.77 3.18 0.82 1.15 0.281 70.60% 3.49 3.72 4.16
Carlos Silva Cubs 6.33 1.92 3.3 0.83 1.24 0.306 72.40% 3.92 3.73 3.95
Ricky Nolasco Marlins 8.5 1.73 4.9 1.33 1.23 0.323 72.90% 4.22 3.75 3.48
Carl Pavano Twins 5.19 1.53 3.39 0.84 1.16 0.285 73.90% 3.56 3.76 3.93
John Ely Dodgers 6.67 2.82 2.36 0.79 1.32 0.306 65.80% 4.63 3.78 3.98
Shaun Marcum Blue Jays 7.51 1.97 3.82 1.13 1.13 0.284 73.60% 3.7 3.83 3.94
Chris Carpenter Cardinals 6.98 2.49 2.8 0.88 1.15 0.275 79.90% 2.88 3.83 3.81
Luke Hochevar Royals 6.58 3.23 2.04 0.69 1.38 0.312 62.40% 4.96 3.84 4.22
Joel Pineiro Angels 5.69 2.19 2.59 0.89 1.31 0.306 71.70% 4.18 3.88 3.87
Livan Hernandez Nationals 4.74 2.88 1.65 0.59 1.31 0.288 75.70% 3.36 3.89 4.77
Tim Hudson Braves 4.86 2.89 1.68 0.56 1.1 0.239 83.50% 2.28 3.89 4
Max Scherzer Tigers 8.34 3.61 2.31 0.93 1.31 0.297 72.80% 3.73 3.91 4.02
Dan Haren - - - 8.43 1.82 4.63 1.39 1.32 0.339 72.00% 4.45 3.91 3.63
Jonathon Niese Mets 7.17 2.8 2.56 0.91 1.33 0.313 78.80% 3.33 3.92 3.93
Brett Cecil Blue Jays 6.44 2.84 2.27 0.9 1.23 0.28 72.80% 3.8 3.92 4.18
Mike Pelfrey Mets 5.2 3.11 1.67 0.6 1.45 0.316 74.00% 3.82 3.93 4.41
Cole Hamels Phillies 9.22 2.71 3.4 1.3 1.23 0.304 81.10% 3.47 3.95 3.49
Andy Pettitte Yankees 7 2.96 2.37 0.93 1.2 0.274 80.70% 2.88 3.96 4.05
Daisuke Matsuzaka Red Sox 7.86 4.12 1.91 0.76 1.32 0.286 70.80% 4.19 3.96 4.64
Jason Vargas Mariners 5.68 2.49 2.29 0.89 1.2 0.273 75.90% 3.43 3.97 4.7
Bud Norris Astros 9.27 3.83 2.42 1.04 1.43 0.331 63.80% 5.03 3.98 3.91
Scott Baker Twins 7.42 1.96 3.79 1.25 1.33 0.327 71.80% 4.63 3.99 4
Jair Jurrjens Braves 6.25 2.94 2.13 0.85 1.29 0.291 67.60% 4.36 3.99 4.52
John Lackey Red Sox 6.05 3.24 1.87 0.74 1.49 0.328 70.50% 4.51 4 4.51

Tuesday, June 08, 2010

A Big Day For Baseball's Future - Strasburg and Stanton Debut

Today is a big day for baseball. Stephen Strasburg makes his debut with the Washington Nationals against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The game will be shown on the MLB Network tonight and I'm betting every baseball fan in the country will be tuning in. However, there is more making this an exciting day for baseball. Michael Stanton will be making his major league debut with the Florida Marlins. The only fans not watching Strasburg tonight will be Stanton's fantasy owners who are tuning into Stanton's debut against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Stephen Strasburg

Stephen Strasburg has thrown 57.3 innings with a 2.04 FIP in the minors. He is not just a strikeout pitcher. In addition to his 10.20 K9 (combined Double-A and Triple-A) he also owns a 64.9 groundball percentage. He's probably been ready to pitch in the majors for more than a year. But without his stint in the minors his first MLB start would not have nearly the impact on baseball and Washington Nationals that it will tonight. I expect him to pitch well. He won't necessarily be Tim Lincecum right off the bat. He will be facing the very best hitters in the world now. Even the Pirates are better than anything he saw in the minors or in college.

Michael Stanton

In 189 at-bats in Double-A, Stanton has hit .312/.443/.730 with a .328 BABIP. He has nice batted ball splits, more than 50 percent of his batted balls are fly balls. He kills lefties but does not have handedness issues. He has hit much better at home than on the road. This has led some to believe he is the product of a nice home environment but I don't buy that and neither do the Marlins. He could probably do with a little time at triple -A (and hell, he may still get it) but I think he will hit for a decent batting average and tons of power. He is still available in a lot of leagues. You should pick him up right now, you may not have the chance again.

2010 MLB Draft

The draft continues today. You can check it out in progress at MLB.com/live. Yesterday had a few surprises including Bryce Harper being announced as an outfielder rather than a catcher. The Chicago Cubs went their own way by drafting Hayden Simpson. Zigging when they Zag has been the habit of Scouting Director Tim Wilken.
Tim described the kid physically as a cross between Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum while acknowledging he has a long way to go to reach that status. Like Lincecum, Simpson said on a conference call tonight that he uses his whole body to pitch, easing stress on the arm.

The 21-year-old Simpson was 13-1 this year with a 1.81 ERA in Division II ball. Simpson said his best pitch is his slider and that he also possesses a four-seam fastball, a circle change and a 12-to-6 curveball.
The New York Yankees stunned many by drafting high school shortstop/RHP Cito Culver with the 32nd pick of the draft. He is an okay prospect. He was just picked about 100 names earlier than anyone expected.
On the mound, he was 90-91, which really isn’t bad for a guy with that kind of frame. What you didn’t see with Culver was a lot of physical projection for height, which would make his future as a right-handed pitcher pretty nominal. On one play, a kid fouled a pitch back behind the screen. Culver came off the mound, full speed, and caught up to his catcher deep in foul territory. It was a throwaway play to some scouts, but it showed me reflexes, his first step and his acceleration. The guy is an athlete.
One of my favorite picks of the draft went to the Atlanta Braves. Scouting Director Tony DeMacio selected Matt Lipka, a high school shortstop from Texas. The Braves project him as their future leadoff hitter.
When DeMacio went to suburban Dallas' McKinney High School last month, he was thoroughly impressed with the cerebral approach taken by an athletic shortstop whose will to win complimented the speed that had made him such a threat as a leadoff hitter and two-time Class 4-A All-State wide receiver in the football hotbed of Texas. Thus when it came time for the Braves to make their first selection, the 35th overall, in this year's First Year Player Draft on Monday night, DeMacio confidently selected Matt Lipka, the 18-year-old shortstop who had developed into one of the two multi-sport superstars that made McKinney High a popular destination this past year for college-football recruiters and baseball scouts. "He's a kid that's going to show up for you every day," DeMacio said. "He's going to make everybody else better around him. He's a winning-type guy. He's just a great, great young man and we're just very pleased to have him."

Friday, October 23, 2009

AFL Update: Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals Rotation Ace of the Future, Stephen Strasburg made his second appearance in the Arizona Fall League yesterday. It did not go uite as well as the first one. Actually it was a lot different in that he allowed eight runs (seven earned) over 2 and 2/3 innings. But in the AFL this should not be taken too seriously. This is definitely a hitters league. Every team is essentially a minor league All-Star team. Plus, pitchers are often working on things like developing a change-up or learning to work around the zone.

Harry Pavlidis of Beyond the Box Score has done some great work analyzing Strasburg's pitches. That you should definitely read to get some insight into the pitcher that everyone is talking about. Here is a small sample:
Beyond the speed gap of 7 or 8 mph (very nice), Strasburg's change "sank" about six inches relative to the fastball, which is brutal. If he's hiding that thing at all, yikes. If today was any indication, he was. He kept it out of the zone (30%), but every one he threw for a strike yielded a swing. Two of the seven balls were chased. Of the five total swings, three found nothing but air. Two made contact, on the ground, which still didn't work out well. Both were singles.
You can check out the details of the outing including who did what damage by reading Barry M. Bloom's report on Nationals (dot) com.
Strasburg allowed eight earned runs and seven hits, including three homers (one a grand slam), in a 9-6 loss to the Peoria Javelinas. It was his first look at that kind of disaster. Take note that he gave up only 16 earned runs in 15 college starts this season for San Diego State, for which he was 13-1 with a 1.32 ERA during his junior year.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Strasburg Wins in AFL Debut


Despite all the cautions you'll hear about the dangers of drafting rookie pitchers, Stephen Strasburg is likely to be a much discussed talent from now until April. Strasburg made his AFL debut on Friday to much fanfare. Here is a round-up of writing on the results:

Strasburg wins his professional debut(Barry M. Bloom / MLB.com)
Strasburg, taken first in June's First-Year Player Draft by the Nationals, threw 50 pitches -- 32 of them strikes -- for the Phoenix Desert Dogs. He faced 11 Scottsdale Scorpions hitters, walked one, struck out two, allowed a pair of singles and earned the win in his club's 7-4 victory. The two strikeouts came with one out in the first inning and were of the swinging variety.

Strasburg sparkles in AFL debut (Jason Grey /ESPN)
The first pitch was 99 miles per hour. That was how Washington Nationals prospect Stephen Strasburg announced his presence at the Arizona Fall League...As expected, Strasburg busted out the 88-91 mph changeup he rarely used as an amateur. Not only was it impressive, he used it as an out pitch in the first inning, getting both his strikeouts on changes with good tumble. He showed off a heavy two-seam fastball at 90-94 mph to go with the four-seamer, and his 82-84 mph slider was a solid 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale on this night, though I've seen it even better...It would shock me if he were not in the Nationals' opening day rotation.

Strasburg’s AFL Debut (Conor Glassey/Baseball America's Prospects Blog)

From a mechanical standpoint, the scout stated that Strasburg “gets a little forward with his arm and hand in his delivery. Also, his elbow gets closed up on top. I’m a little worried about his ability to drive downward all the time. He throws so hard and gets such ride and carry on his fastball, he can throw it up in the zone and get away with it. There are a few little red flags and he needs to clean up his delivery a bit. But the positives outweigh the negatives.”

I think the consensus says that Stephen Strasburg is going to be a force for the Washington Nationals and soon. I would not go out of my way to add a rookie pitcher to my roster but if he came easily and naturally enough (and at a rookie pitcher price) I would gladly accept his presence on my fantasy rosters in 2010.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Hot Prospect: Matt Young PLUS Some Other Stuff...

Sometimes really smart people do stupid things. They do things like dismiss a prospect entirely based on his age or his height. That's dumb. Yes, your age at a given level is an indication of a player's talent and skill level but it isn't everything. And at least in baseball, size doesn't matter. Matt Young is 26-years old and short. He is a very good prospect.

Young was a fantastic High School Player for Plano East High School where he made the All-Texas Team. At the University of New Mexico he was a Freshman All-American. He led the Mid-West Conference in walks and On-Base Percentage. His sophomore year he led the conference in walks and steals. His junior year he hit .381 and led the MWC in triples. He went undrafted but signed as a free agent with the Braves.

With the Rome Braves in 2005 he hit .312/.412/.409 with 85 runs and he had a .992 fielding percentage in center field. He led the Braves organization in OBP and runs scored. In 2006 with Myrtle Beach he hit .281/.389/.375 with 30 doubles and 71 walks, while playing excellent defense and stealing 21 bases. In 2007 he missed time due to injuries but still had a .381 on-base percentage for the Pelicans. He was promoted to double-A and struggled for the first time in his life batting .242/.308/.305 in 33 games. In 2008 repeating double-A he hit .289/.384/.385 with 30 stolen bases.

Last fall the Braves sent Young to the Arizona Fall League, a prospect showcase and he sparkled hitting .367/.426/.571. But for some reason the Braves sent him back to double-A Mississippi where he is presently hitting .281/.409/.393 with 33 stolen bases in 427 at-bats. Young looks like another Nyjer Morgan (maybe not quite as good the base stealer --more on him later). Remember last weekk when we discussed the way teams are going to change? Young is a perfect example of the type of player that will be receiving more chances in the majors than in past years. The Braves haven't shown many signs of including him in their plans (I believe he'll be Rule V eligible) but he should be on the radar of fantasy owners as a potential steal source.

Some Other Stuff...

Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated is suggesting that Major League Baseball is almost certain to have a slotting system for Amateur Draft picks in place by the 2012 draft. This is a great idea. MLB should model their plan after the NBA's and eliminate arbitration altogether. It seems to me that the problem with baseball's present system is not so much that the Free Agents demand so much money. The true problem is that the arbitration eligible players demand so much and and often are not worth it. But under the present rules teams are screwed if they don't offer arbitration.

Should the Twins have to pay Delmon Young $3-4 million dollars next year to keep him around? No, but they will because it would be far worse to let him go for nothing before they even managed to squeeze a good season out of him. This is why the NBA's restricted free agent process is so much better. The player can still get a huge payday if he's worth it (as Tim Lincecum absolutely is) but guys like Young (and the dozens just like him) get the raise without the ridiculous demands attached.

***

Tyler Hissey of MVN's Around the Majors blog has put together some rankings of this winter's class of free agent pitchers. He has three different lists but here's the FIP rankings. Check out the Around the Majors blog for the others.

Free Agent Pitchers By Fielding Independent Pitching:

Joel Pineiro: 3.04
Erik Bedard: 3.54
John Lackey: 3.79
Jose Contreras: 3.96
Randy Wolf: 3.98
Jason Marquis: 4.00
Andy Pettitte: 4.12
Tim Wakefield: 4.19
Carl Pavano: 4.26
Rich Harden: 4.46
Kevin Millwood: 4.56
Brad Penny: 4.57
Doug Davis: 4.59
Jon Garland: 4.64
Vicente Padilla: 4.83
Jarrod Washburn: 4.86

***
Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle is daydreaming about an unlimited budget for free agents to boost the Houston Astros back into contention. He suggests that the dream lineup for 2010 would look like this:

C--Jason Castro.
1b--Lance Berkman.
2b--Felipe Lopez.
3b--Miguel Tejada.
SS--Tommy Manzella.
LF--Carlos Lee.
CF--Michael Bourn.
RF--Hunter Pence.

SP--Roy Oswalt.
SP--Wandy Rodriguez.
SP--Bud Norris.
SP--Justin Duchscherer.
SP--John Lackey.

Plus some undefined changes to the bullpen...Is this the best he can do? I bet everyone reading this can do better without adding more than $30 million to their $102 million dollar payroll. Use Cot's Baseball Contracts if you'd like to show me how much better you can do...(yes, hint, hint).

***

The Chicago Cubs have finally been sold. After years of rumors and at least two years of negotiations the Cubs (or 95 percent of them) are now the property of the Ricketts family for a cool $845 million. Hopefully, this will free the Cubs to do whatever it takes to finally return to the World Series and even to win one. The Cubs were severely hampered by this process in Spring Training when they attempted to acquire Jake Peavy or another top starter. The Cubs should make big moves this fall.

***

Who says the Mets don't have any prospects? He came into the spotlight this week when he made Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet, but Kirk Nieuwenhuis is not just the flavor of the week. He was a third round pick in 2008 and just had his 22nd birthday. He'll be moving quickly through the Mets organization if this keeps up. This week's hot sheet also includes my second favorite prospect ( after Michael Stanton), Brett Wallace. Check out the write ups on the whole list which is not behind the subscriber wall.

***

Early this season I was a doubter when it came to Nyjer Morgan. I was not discounting his ability to play good defense and steal bases. I just did not think the Pittsburgh Pirates were the type of team to allow an older player like Morgan a full-time opportunity. I thought they would lean on their younger players even if it hurt a little. I should have known better. But I am now as big a Nyjer Morgan fan as there is. I love to see that guys like Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post are also on the bandwagon.

The Washington Nationals are quickly becoming my second favorite team. Now that Mike Rizzo is the GM I'm confident that they will continue to make all the right moves. They are closer than you think to being a contender. They have the key parts of a quality offense. If you can't find a way to score runs with a speedster with on-base skills like Nyjer Morgan, an on-base machine like Nick Johnson (I know he's gone but still...) and middle of the order bats like Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn (who should be moving to first base next season), and Josh Willingham you should be fired. Just ask Manny Acta.

Rizzo will keep building up the farm system. This time next season Stephen Strasburg should be the best pitching prospect in the country (if he isn't already) and about to join the Nationals' rotation (if he isn't already there). I enjoyed reading how the Nationals led by Mike Rizzo out-maneuvered super agent Scott Boras. The stories are probably overblown but Strasburg apparently always intended to sign provided he received a fair offer. So when the Nats discovered this and stuck to their record breaking (but far from the 25-50 million Boras was supposedly looking for) offer, and given his client's wishes, Boras had to accept it.

Strasburg is far from flawless but he is deserving of the attention he is receiving. Despite the hype you can count on the Nationals doing the right thing. They'll keep Strasburg in the minors where he belongs until he proves himself. Do not expect to see him in the majors before mid-June, if even that soon.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Hot Prospect: Stephen Strasburg


Usually, when a pitcher is able to throw his fastball with triple-digit velocity you can be almost certain that he'll also have trouble controlling it. This is not the case with San Diego State's Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg regularly blows up radar guns and he does it with a minuscule walk rate.

Strasburg is almost guaranteed to be the first pick of the 2009 Amateur Draft and become the property of the Washington Nationals. The Nationals cannot afford to screw up another first round pick and that is exactly what they would be doing by selecting anyone else. Scouts and analysts are rating him higher than even the very best picks of recent years. Only freaks like Doc Gooden and pitchers of that rare ability even come close.

Pitching Statistics












Year Age Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SV IP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
2007 18 NCAA 1 3 2.43 25 0 0 7 37 4.4 0 3.6 11 0.89
2008 19 NCAA 8 3 1.57 13 13 4 0 97 5.6 0.1 1.5 12 0.79





San Diego State Aztecs Profile Page

Jason Churchill's Prospect Insider - Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg's WikiPedia Page


The Washington Post collects gushy quotes about Strasburg