Joe Nathan Considering Surgery and Other Bits

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Minnesota Twins closer, Joe Nathan, has a significant tear in his right elbow's ulnar collateral ligament. This is the type of injury that usually requires Tommy John Surgery. The Twins and Nathan are choosing to explore rehab and strengthening the surrounding muscles before committing to the operation which would certainly end Nathan's 2010 season and put his 2011 season in jeopardy. I have serious doubts that the surgery will work. I am not a doctor but we've seen this situation before and it almost never works out.

This news certainly sucks for those that have already drafted Nathan (not to mention Nathan himself and the Twins). The question on most fantasy-oriented minds is who will replace Nathan as closer while he is rehabbing/recovering. There are two options. The most popular choice at the moment is Jon Rauch, who has closer stuff and has closed before for short periods with the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks. The other option is Matt Guerrier who has been a very effective reliever (even if a little lucky in 2009) for the Twins.

I like both options. I believe the Twins will make Jon Rauch as their first choice because of his prior experience. He does have a bit of an injury history however. So picking up Guerrier as insurance or as a late round/low cost saves option makes a lot of sense. Jon Rauch will provide you with typical closer stats - strikeouts in bunches and quality ratios. Guerrier will cost less and could potentially provide even better ratios but the strikeouts will not be as impressive.

There are a few other options worth a buck at the end of your auction or a reserve round pick - Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain, and Jose Mijares. All three have great stuff with different things keeping them from being ideal options. Neshek is coming off Tommy John Surgery and pitchers usually require at least a few months on the mound before they rediscover their former stuff (if they ever do). Jesse Crain isn't the fireballing closer candidate he used to be but is still an effective reliever and his name has been linked with closer opportunities before. Jose Mijares certainly has the stuff but is the only (certain) lefty in the pen and lacks experience.

UPDATE: The Advanced Fantasy Baseball Community Leagues
The response to the AFBCL has been overwhelming. There are a few owners who have been sent invitations who have not yet accepted. I plan to give them another day or so to accept before I give their spots away. There seems to be enough interest to have a second league, though I'm not certain about prizes just yet. If you are interested but figured all the spots were filled go ahead and send me an e-mail expressing your interest. If you have already sent one, no need to send another, I'll assume you are for now.

The All Sleeper Teams Are Coming This Weekend
The fifth annual All Sleeper Teams article will be released this weekend. This is the most packed edition yet. There are more sleeper teams (categories) and dozens and dozens of sleepers with longer write-ups than in past years. You do not want to miss this piece before your draft or auction so be certain to sign up for e-mails or the RSS Feed, links are available in the sidebar on the main page of the blog.

2010 Sleeper Alert: Francisco Liriano

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After his 2006 season it seemed certain that Francisco Liriano would never again be put into the category of a sleeper pick. However, after his 2009 performance (5.80/4.87 ERA/FIP) that is exactly what he is. In fact, most owners have been down on him according to early mock drafts. But that is changing, mostly due to Liriano's stunning performance in the Dominican Winter League for Leones del Escogido. Dominican League statistics are hard to come by but at the end of last week Liriano was in the midst of an impressive streak that included 26 and 2/3 scoreless innings and 35 strikeouts in 27 and 2/3 innings. Last night he struck out 10 batters over five scoreless innings against Gigantes del Cibao to claim the Dominican League title in the deciding ninth game of the series at Julian Javier Stadium in San Francisco de Macorís. He allowed just one hit and improved to 3-1 with a 0.49 ERA. This brought his season totals to 47 strikeouts in just 37 innings.

If I was ever off Liriano's bandwagon, I am clearly back on it. In 2009 Liriano suffered through what the Minnesota Twins labeled Elbow Fatigue, which led to some swelling in his forearm, that led to his DL stint. Some player take more time than others to recover from injury. It is very possible that Liriano simply came back too soon, and put too much stress on his Tommy John repaired elbow. This season he will be more than two years removed and judging by his recent performances in the Dominican he has got that special something back. Combine this good news with the Twins' improved infield defense and the new stadium (with real grass) that should benefit pitchers and the possibilities are soaring.

However owners should still exercise caution in drafting Liriano, who has to be considered injury prone. Still, he should be squarely in every owner's radar. When you're considering the John Maines, Aaron Harangs, and for your fantasy roster you may want to check on the availibility of the Twins young lefty first.

Other opinions on Francisco Liriano:

David Golebiewski of Fangraghs.com - Don’t forget Liriano. Exasperating as he is, he figures to post an ERA in the low-to-mid four’s in 2010. He’ll be back. That fastball needs an upgrade, however, if he hopes to terminate opposing batters.

Tim Brown of Yahoo.com - While at first glance the White Sox and Tigers have the better starting rotations in the Central, Francisco Liriano will be pivotal. Reports out of the Dominican Republic say Liriano has regained his velocity and the late bite on his slider. The Twins are eager to see for themselves. In the meantime, he’s behind Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Carl Pavano, and battling Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins for the fifth place in the rotation.

NBC Sports/ Rotoworld - Liriano looked incredibly sharp, hitting 95 MPH consistently with his fastball and displaying a tight break on his slider. The 26-year-old lefty had a lousy 2009 campaign, but the Twins have to be pleased with the way he looked tonight. Liriano should have no trouble climbing back into the club's starting rotation with a strong spring and is quickly turning into a legitimate fantasy sleeper. We all know what kind of dominance he's capable of.

2010 Sleeper: James Loney

James Loney is on the verge of becoming an extremely good hitter. He already walks more than he strikes out. He hits for a solid batting average and because he hits in the solid Dodgers lineup he collects a solid number of Runs and RBI. However, he has no real power especially for a first baseman. Loney will be 25-years old when the 2010 season begins. He is still young enough to be developing the power that fantasy owners want to see from their corner infielders. The vast majority of his scouting reports (remember he was a first round pick) saw him developing 20-25 homerun power someday. To the doubters out there (who we love because they keep Loney’s auction price down) I can only say that you also probably doubted that Joe Mauer would ever develop power.

Loney is precisely the kind of player that savvy owners can collect at bargain rates. It seems like he has been around forever and his surface stats seem to reflect a player that has reached his level and has nothing else to offer. But he's young, he has tools, and best of all he has the skills to do almost anything with a bat in his hands. James Loney will be on quite a few of my fantasy squads this season. We have not seen the best of Loney yet.

So, what do you think?

Season	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	ISO	Spd	BABIP	wOBA
2006	Dodgers (AAA)	8.00%	9.30%	0.94	0.426	0.546	0.167	4.6	0.404	0.422
2006	Dodgers	7.30%	9.80%	0.80	0.342	0.559	0.275	6.2	0.284	0.377
2006	Dodgers	20.00%	0.00%	1.00	0.800	0.750	0.000	0.1	0.750	0.675
2006	Average	8.70%	18.90%	0.50	0.337	0.432	0.163	5	0.305	0.332
2007	Dodgers (AAA)	9.70%	20.60%	0.52	0.345	0.382	0.103	3.3	0.348	0.322
2007	Dodgers	7.50%	14.00%	0.58	0.381	0.538	0.206	2.8	0.352	0.389
2008	Dodgers	7.00%	14.30%	0.53	0.338	0.434	0.145	4.2	0.320	0.333
2008	Dodgers	9.10%	23.30%	0.43	0.394	0.533	0.200	0.1	0.409	0.393
2009	Dodgers	10.80%	11.80%	1.03	0.357	0.399	0.118	3.6	0.301	0.332

2010 Free Agents: Starting Pitchers

Josh Beckett will definitely have his option picked up by the Boston Red Sox. But this list is a lot stronger than we've been led to believe by the bigger media guys. If I ran a team like the Washington Nationals I'd be all over Ben Sheets, Brandon Webb (if the D'Backs are actually dumb enough to let him go), Rich Harden, John Smoltz, Justin Duchscherer, and Randy Wolf. Sure, there is a bunch of risk there, but the upside is incredible and the discounts should be substantial.

Key Sleepers: Justin Duchscherer, Kelvim Escobar

Starting Pitchers
Brandon Backe HOU
Josh Beckett * BOS
Erik Bedard SEA (B)
Daniel Cabrera ARZ
Bartolo Colon CWS
Jose Contreras COL
Doug Davis ARZ (B)
Justin Duchscherer OAK (B)
Adam Eaton COL
Kelvim Escobar LAA
Jon Garland * LAD (B)
Tom Glavine ATL
Mike Hampton HOU
Rich Harden CHC (B)
Livan Hernandez WAS
Tim Hudson * ATL - got his wish Thursday after completing a three-year, $28 million extension that includes a fourth-year option for 2013.
Randy Johnson SF (B)
John Lackey LAA (A)
Cliff Lee * PHI (A)
Braden Looper * MIL (B)
Jason Marquis COL (B)
Kevin Millwood * TEX
Brett Myers PHI
Vicente Padilla * LAD (B)
Carl Pavano MIN (B)
Brad Penny SF - Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports the Cardinals have agreed to terms with Brad Penny on a one-year, $7.5 million.
Odalis Perez WAS
Andy Pettitte NYY (B) - Veteran left-hander Andy Pettitte and the New York Yankees have agreed to terms on a one-year contract worth $11.75 million, major league sources tell ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.
Joel Pineiro STL (B)
Sidney Ponson KC
Jason Schmidt LAD
John Smoltz STL
Tim Wakefield * BOS (B)
Jarrod Washburn DET
Todd Wellemeyer STL
Randy Wolf (A) - The Brewers on Wednesday succeeded in luring free agent left-hander Randy Wolf with a three-year contract that reportedly includes a club option for a fourth year. Other reports followed, including one in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, saying Wolf is guaranteed about $29 million. Other reports on the value of the contract's first three years ranged from $27 million to $30 million.

The Dodgers signed pitcher Josh Towers to a minor league deal worth $700K in the Majors, according to the AP.

2010 Free Agents: Outfielders

Obviously, some of these guys won't actually become available. I think Magglio Ordonez, for example, has earned his option by hitting his target at-bat total. It seems unlikely that would opt out of the deal after his not so hot season but i suppose stranger things have happened. The big market teams will all be chasing Matt Holliday and to a slightly lesser extent Jason Bay. But there are a bunch of very solid players on this list. Bobby Abreu is aging but still a very effective player. Rick Ankiel has monster power potential. Marlon Byrd finally looks like that star player he could have been years ago. Johnny Damon isn't much on defense any longer but he's still a nice leadoff hitter. I bet Brian Giles has some years left in him if he can only escape from Petco Hell. Vlad. Manny. You could add some serious runs to your lineup picking from this collection.

Key Sleepers: Rick Ankiel, Brian Giles, Austin Kearns

Outfielders
Bobby Abreu LAA (A)
Garret Anderson ATL (B)
Rick Ankiel STL
Rocco Baldelli BOS
Jason Bay BOS (A)
Marlon Byrd TEX (B)
Mike Cameron MIL (B)
Frank Catalanotto TEX
Endy Chavez SEA
Coco Crisp * KC - The Royals bought its way out of 2010 contract option on outfielder Coco Crisp for $500,000
Carl Crawford * TB (B) - Rays executive VP Andrew Friedman said after deciding to pick up Carl Crawford's $10 million option for 2010 that the All-Star leftfielder "is a big part of what we've accomplished and what we will accomplish in the future."
Johnny Damon NYY (A)
David Dellucci CLE
Jermaine Dye * CWS (A)
Darin Erstad HOU
Cliff Floyd SD
Ryan Freel TEX
Brian Giles SD (B)
Ken Griffey Jr. SEA - The Mariners re-signed Griffey as a veteran left-handed bat off the bench and insurance
Vladimir Guerrero LAA (A)
Eric Hinske NYY
Matt Holliday STL (A)
Geoff Jenkins * PHI
Reed Johnson CHC
Andruw Jones TEX
Gabe Kapler TB
Austin Kearns * WAS
Mark Kotsay CHW
Hideki Matusi NYY (B) - The 35-year-old designated hitter has reached an agreement with the Angels on a one-year, $6.5 million contract, pending the results of a physical.
Jason Michaels CLE
Xavier Nady NYY (B)
Magglio Ordonez * DET
Scott Podsednik CHW
Manny Ramirez * LAD (A)
Dave Roberts SF
Gary Sheffield NYM
Fernando Tatis NYM (B)
Randy Winn SF (B)

2010 Free Agents: Shortstops

You won't load up on offense by signing any of these guys but a few of them had interesting seasons. Marco Scutaro had a second good season as a regular and deserves a couple of years from the Toronto Blue Jays. Adam Everett was less Everett-y than usual. I am really curious to see where Bobby Crosby signs. He was supposed to be quite a bit better than his results the last six years.

Key Sleepers: Bobby Crosby

Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera MIN (A)
Juan Castro LAD
Alex Cora NYM - New York Mets today announced they signed infielder Alex Cora to a one-year contract for the 2010 season with a vesting/club option for 2011.
Bobby Crosby OAK
Adam Everett DET - The Tigers re-signed free agent Adam Everett to a one-year deal to remain as their shortstop.
Alex Gonzalez * BOS - The Red Sox were prepared to offer Gonzalez a 1-year contract in the vicinity of $3 million, but the club wanted to first explore other options on the trade and free-agent markets. Rather than wait for the situation with Boston to resolve itself, Gonzalez opted to sign with the Blue Jays for approximately $2.75 million.
Khalil Greene STL
Ramon Martinez LAD
John McDonald TOR - Signed a two-year, US$3-million contract to return to the Toronto Blue Jays
Marco Scutaro TOR (A) - ESPN.com’s Buster Olney is reporting that Marco Scutaro will receive a guaranteed $12.5 million for two years, with the chance to push the deal to $17 million from the Boston Red Sox. According to Olney, Scutaro will receive a $1 million signing bonus and salaries of $5 million each in the next two seasons. There is then a mutual option that would allow the Sox to pick up Scutaro for a third year at $6 million. If the Sox decline their option,then Scutaro could either exercise a $3 million player option, or he could take a $1.5 million buyout.
Miguel Tejada HOU
Jack Wilson * SEA - The Mariners signed shortstop Jack Wilson to a two-year deal, according to a team press release, the deal is believed to be worth a total of $10MM.

2010 Free Agents: Second Baseman

I know Joe Torre was dumb enough to play Ron Belliard over Orlando Hudson since the former joined the Dodgers. But could he be dumb enough to convince the Dodgers to sign Belliard long term? There are some decent vets on this list but no one that makes you want to clear a space or spend a ton of money. If my team had an opening Hudson would be my first choice. If I were strapped for cash I'd go with Placido Polanco.

Key Sleepers: Akinori Iwamura, Felipe Lopez

Second Basemen
Marlon Anderson NYM
Ron Belliard LAD (B)
Jamey Carroll CLE
David Eckstein SD
Orlando Hudson LAD (A)
Omar Infante ATL
Felipe Lopez MIL (A)
Mark Loretta LAD
Placido Polanco DET (A) - Polanco signed a 3-year, $18 million contract to play third base for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Freddy Sanchez * SF (A) - re-signed with the SanFrancisco Giants for two years and $12million

2010 Free Agents: First Basemen

Hank Blalock and Russell Branyan had big years in 2009. But will they be able to find the at-bats (or stay healthy) in 2010? Bookmark this page as it will be updated as players sign or re-sign with teams.

Key Sleepers: Russell Branyan, Chad Tracy

First Basemen
Hank Blalock TEX
Russell Branyan SEA
Carlos Delgado NYM (B)
Nomar Garciaparra OAK
Jason Giambi COL
Ross Gload * FLA
Aubrey Huff DET (B)
Nick Johnson FLA (B) - Yankees have come to terms with Nick Johnson on a one-year deal worth a reported $5.75 million plus incentives to replace Matsui as their designated hitter.
Adam LaRoche ATL (B)
Kevin Millar TOR
Robb Quinlan LAA
Matt Stairs PHI
Mike Sweeney SEA
Jim Thome LAD
Chad Tracy ARZ

Mid-Season AL Team Previews (w/trade rumors)

I hope you had a pleasant All-Star Break and the All-Star game. I did not mean for mine to be so long but as we know very well by now, stuff happens. I thought this year's Home Run Derby was on the boring side but maybe I'm just jaded after seeing Josh Hamilton's performance last year.

A Brief All-Star Game Comment: Barrack Obama is the coolest looking President of the United States ever. I think having a few beers and watching the game with him would feel like the most natural thing in the world...

This is not one of those articles that tell you that such and such a player is usually a better performer after the All-Star Break. I know there are players that fit that description but I do not believe that is a sound way to choose the players who populate your roster. I just don't feel confident that trading for Adam LaRoche will give my fantasy team much of a boost. I prefer to look for players with untapped skills, astounding luck (good or bad), and potentially changing roles when making my second half projections. You wouldn't engage in NFL betting without doing some research like checking the NFL game spreads. So why would you go after second half players without doing the same level of work? Or at least letting someone you trust do it for you. I have split the article into two halves just because it was becoming very very long. Much longer than my usual posts.

Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles were a very competitive team in the first half even if their 40-48 record doesn't show it. The lineup has been surprisingly good even with Nick Markakis having a rather pedestrian start to the season. You can expect Markakis to play a little better in the second half just because we all know that he can. His strikeouts and walks are at their typical levels. It is interesting that his fly ball rate has increased as his HR/FB has decreased. If his HR/FB normalizes for Markakis in the second half he could still approach 25 homeruns. Oddly, after the club expressed a desire to see Markakis run more often he has almost completely given up any effort in that department. Aubrey Huff and Brian Roberts should also be better as they recover from nagging injuries. Adam Jones had a great start but has been mediocre lately. You can expect him to pick it back up, just not at the level he showed in April.

The problem has been with the starting rotation. Right-hander Rich Hill offers the same mix of amazing potential and frequent disappointments that he offered in Chicago. But manager Dave Trembley doesn't expect him to come out of the rotation anytime soon. You can expect to see top prospect Chris Tillman join the rotation in a matter of weeks. Brian Matusz is also a possibility for an August call-up. Rookies David Hernandez and Brad Bergesen have become useful in AL-only leagues and may be keepers in a lot of those leagues.

Trade Rumors: I do not expect the Orioles to make any significant moves. They have players they could move like Huff and Melvin Mora (no-trade clause) but I think the club is happy to ride those players out unless they get a very good offer. Dany Baez is almost certain to be moved but how much could he possibly bring back? Unless the deal is with the Royals... I have heard the rumor too often to ignore it completely but I doubt the Orioles will move George Sherrill, he's just too cheap and good. Of course those are the same reasons the return would be outstanding.

Boston Red Sox
As predicted the Red Sox pitching depth has worked itself out with Clay Buchholz spending most of the season in the minors. Buchholz is expected to get the call to start in the majors on Friday. The present plan is to send him down after the game but Buchholz could make the decision very difficult by dominating the Blue Jays. John Smoltz has finally entered the rotation which had a ready made opening thanks to Daisuke Matsuzaka's ineffectiveness. Dice-K has been sent to extended spring training and will probably spend more of the next three months there than on the Red Sox 25-man roster. John Smoltz should be a nice pitcher to have in the second half. I would not look for vintage Smoltz but he should be good for five to six quality innings every five days. The Red Sox have a bullpen strong enough and deep enough to pitch a few extra innings on Smoltz's turn. Mike Lowell has had soreness in his surgically repaired hip but this is to be expected. The Red Sox will be giving Lowell regular rest in the second half to keep him fresh for the playoffs. David Ortiz had a horrible first half until the last few weeks, when he finally rediscovered his swing. Since then he has been the slugger the Red Sox were expecting. I would not be surprised if Ortiz still totaled close to 30 homers.

Trade Rumors: The Red Sox have the players and prospects to acquire any player they want to have. They seem to have few needs on the pitching staff but could use a big bat or two. Theo Epstein has historically been reluctant to part with much talent for short-term rentals. I see them chasing players with contracts such as Alex Rios, Victor Martinez and Todd Helton or a short term option that would come extremely cheap such as Jack Wilson. If they fail to find a trade that suits their needs the Red Sox might call on slugging first base prospect Lars Anderson and hope that he is ready to help. Less likely call-ups Casey Kelly and Josh Reddick may also be ready to help. Boston would have loved to trade Julio Lugo but have decided to designate him for assignment. Lugo can still hit for a decent average and steal some bases. Unfortunately his defense has gone in the tank which will make it difficult for him to get regular playing time. Jed Lowrie will take over as shortstop. I see Lowrie as very similar to Dustin Pedroia (2009 version) and should have a pretty good second half.

Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are in contention but I bet general manager Kenny Williams was expecting his team to be a little better. The offense got off to a rough start but has improved with the return of Scott Podsednik to center field and the call-up of Gordon Beckham to take over third base (mostly) from Josh Fields. Podsednik is not a great player but he scores runs and steals bases, two endearing traits to fantasy owners. Beckham is going to be a huge star and should be rostered in leagues of all types. Carlos Quentin has been dealing with Plantar Fasciitis in his foot and although he is doing well in rehab he should be considered a giant question mark for the rest of the season. The rotation has been a mixed bag after John Danks and Mark Buehrle. For now, the White Sox insist they will keep lefty Aaron Poreda in the bullpen but if they are unable to pull off a trade for a top arm they just might change their minds.

Trade Rumors: The White Sox had what it took to acquire Jake Peavy from the San Diego Padres earlier this season, so they should be in on any starting pitching that becomes available. I am absolutely certain that they will make multiple offers for ace Toronto Starter Roy Halladay. There have been rumors that the White Sox would trade Jermaine Dye for a couple of years now. I don't buy them for even a second. First, who would replace him on this team that intends to make the playoffs? Second, Why would they trade the most consistent offensive performer they have on their roster?

Cleveland Indians
The Indians are annually chosen as a favorite to make the playoffs but they also annually seem to underachieve despite making what seem to be excellent decisions. Cleveland will keep playing second baseman Luis Valbuena as much as possible through his ups and downs but he isn't a good fantasy bat this season. He should become a quality fantasy baseball infielder eventually but I wouldn't bet much on that happening this season. Do not act shocked to see first baseman Nick Weglars, outfielder Matt LaPorta, and catcher Carlos Santana make an appearance in the majors slightly ahead of most schedules. Reliever Chris Perez has been getting Cortisone shots all season for a left foot injury that will be surgically repaired after the season. Why the Cardinals or Indians decided to wait will probably remain a mystery.

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.com recently profiled third base prospect Andy Marte. He covered everything from his rise to top prospect status to his being Designated For Assignment and remaining unclaimed. At the time of this writing Marte is batting .319/.361/.536 with 11 homers and two stolen bases in just 248 triple-a at-bats. He isn't likely to become the star we once thought he could be but a long major league career is not yet out of the question. The Indians have nothing to lose by giving him another chance.

Trade Rumors: Another disappointing season spurred rumors around almost every Indians veteran. Lefty ace Cliff Lee, catcher Victor Martinez and even closer Kerry Wood being the biggest targets. The Indians will demand top dollar for both players who have one year remaining on their contracts. I think it is much more likely that Lee is traded than Roy Halladay. Lee by the way has pitched much better than his record would indicate. Although Victor Martinez recently pledged his undying devotion to the Indians I still think he'll be moved. With Kelly Shoppach as a stopgap until top catching prospect, Carlos Santana is ready Martinez will be a prime target of teams that want to add a hitter.

Detroit Tigers
It has not gone exactly as planned for the Tigers but I think they'll take it as is. Magglio Ordonez has been completely void of any power and has been reduced to part-time status. I think he's done as a top fantasy option. Curtis Granderson is displaying the power and speed we've all expected, even if his batting average leaves us unimpressed. Fortunately the .254 average is mostly the result of a low BABIP caused by his extreme fly ball rate this year. Granderson is well on his way to being one of, if not the very best fantasy option in the American League. Brandon Inge already has 21 homers. If you saw this coming you are smarter than me. Look for Dusty Ryan to gradually take over as the starting catcher as he proves to be equal defensively and a superior bat to Gerald Laird.

Trade Rumors: I am certain that the Tigers would love to trade for an outfield slugger, bullpen help and a #2-3 starter but they don't have many advanced prospects to deal at this point. It will take some major wheeling and dealing for the Tigers to get what they need to advance very far in the playoffs against the AL-East juggernauts.

Kansas City Royals
To call the Royals unpredictable would be an understatement, unless you refer to their chances of making a trade or signing that nobody will like. Acquiring shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt for two potentially useful pitching prospects has been almost universally panned as a horrible move for the Royals. Even worse is the confession of GM Dayton Moore that he doesn't completely understand advanced statistical measures like UZR. You might think that someone in that role would be motivated to be as up to date with industry tools as possible, but you would be wrong. This trade also forces us to question the future of Mike Aviles who presumably would have been a much better option after recovering from elbow surgery. In much better news, Alex Gordon is finally ready to return from the disabled list and if he can continue with the gains he showed in the second half of last season he could be one of the better hitters in the AL as the summer turns to fall.

Trade Rumors: There are a few Gil Meche rumors circulating but the Royals aren't really interested in trading the players that other teams will be interested in acquiring. The Royals are more likely to acquire players they see as good values or underrated.

Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are very good at finding quality talent but they often have no idea what to do with it. Bobby Abreu has had a very good season while Vladimir Guerrero seems to be on the last legs of his career, at least as a worthwhile fantasy option. But the Angels have the offense they need to win (assuming Torii Hunter and Guerrero are not out longer than expected) but their pitching has fallen apart other than Jered Weaver. the Angels have a team FIP of 4.53 which is in the bottom third of American League pitching staffs. Weaver's BABIP of .265 looks lucky at first glace but he allows so few groundballs that it is more maintainable than it might seem. As long as he keeps his strikeout rate high and his walk rate low Weaver should be a very effective pitcher. If an owner in your league is looking to sell high on him, I suggest you pounce. John Lackey and Ervin Santana have been disappointing. Lackey at least is healthy and I think he'll come around. I would avoid Santana who is obviously still dealing with his injury problems.

Trade Rumors: The Angels would like nothing better than to add Roy Halladay to their rotation. They have the prospects the Blue Jays would require, like second baseman Sean Rodriguez, shortstop Brandon Wood, pitchers Trevor Reckling and Jordan Walden. They also have the money to take on the contract after failing to re-sign first baseman Mark Teixeira.

Minnesota Twins
The Twins have one of the easier schedules going forward. I expect Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey (hopefully) to bounce back with big second halves. Baker has been much better than his results. His strikeout and walk rates are both excellent. He has suffered damage because of an elevated HR/FB percentage. If he gets that together he looks like a solid fantasy starter. Joe Crede has been injury prone, big shock. Delmon Young has come around after being a disaster for the first two months of the season. He will probably never be the star that some of us were expecting but he can still be a solid major league outfielder. He has incredible tools and is still just

Trade Rumors: The Twins are interested in second baseman Freddy Sanchez of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Twins are usually reluctant to part with their top prospects so the Pirates will have to be selling him on the cheap for the Twins to acquire Sanchez.

New York Yankees
The Yankee rotation has not worked out as planned. CC Sabathia has been okay but not the number one, ace, and All-Star the Yankees were expecting. Sabathia has been dealing with tightness in his left bicep which could be an indication of a more serious problem. His strikeout rate is down, his control is a bit off from recent years, and he is allowing more fly balls than usual (though it hasn't really hurt his HR9). I would be cautious about adding Sabathia at exorbitant prices. A.J. Burnett started slowly but has been better the last month or so. Burnett's control has also suffered and like Sabathia his fly ball rate has increased. Maybe the new Yankee Stadium wind tunnel to right field has something to do with it. I think he'll be fine if you don't expect too much. The rotation problems continue with Joba Chamberlain who has been very inconsistent. He has had problem controlling his pitch count and working past even the forth and fifth inning. He has been especially bad at home. Chein-Ming Wang's control is also off and his fly ball rate elevated. There is an unmistakable pattern here and it appears to be a stadium affect. Lefty reliever Damaso Marte will return soon after the break. If you forgot he was even on the Yankees you're forgiven. Phil Hughes has become the eight inning reliever the Yankees needed and looks like a lock to join the rotation next season as I predicted.

Trade Rumors: General manager Brian Cashman is good at keeping things quiet. He'll say all the right things about building from within and holding on to the Yankees' best prospects. But if you think he isn't interested in the big names available on the trade market, than you just don't understand how the New York Yankees operate. Alex Rios, Roy Halladay, and all of the best late inning relievers are potential targets. The Yankees have a way of getting what they want. They have the money and they have the resources.

Oakland Athletics
Justin Duchscherer is throwing and should begin a rehab stint later this month. If healthy, Duchscherer could give the Athletics and your fantasy team a big boost to end the season. Matt Holliday has been disappointing even to those who expected the Coors Field Effect to bring his numbers way down. In fact all of Beane's big ticket acquisitions were busts this season. Orlando Cabrera got old a little faster than expected but has bounced back a little lately. Jason Giambi has lost too much bat speed to hit for a worthwhile batting average.

Trade Rumors: You never know what Billy Beane will do. But you can rest assured that he will do something. It may seem contrary to the teams direction but I guarantee it will not be boring. The Braves are going hard after outfielder Matt Holliday. There is some question about whether Beane actually intends to trade Holliday but the price according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports is two highly regarded prospects. If Holliday goes you can expect Cabrera and Giambi to be right behind him.

Seattle Mariners
Everything the Mariners do seems to work out this under the new management of GM Jack Zduriencik. They scout better and the results are already showing. The improved defense has combined with the pitcher friendly dimensions of Safeco Field to make average pitchers fantasy worthy. David Aardsma is closing and has looked better than he ever has in any other season of his career. I would not bet on him as a long term saves solution in your fantasy league but he should be a nice option for the rest of the season. First baseman Russell Branyan is hitting homeruns on a 40-homer pace. His batting average is likely to keep falling but the power is very real. Branyan is a better hitter than he was but he's closer to a .250 hitter than a .290 hitter. Yuneisky Betancourt is gone and Ronny Cedeno will get a chance to prove himself in at least semi-regular at-bats in the second half. Fantasy owners would be wise to remember he was once a highly regarded prospect and has the tools if not the skills to succeed. He is just 26-years old and should be watched closely. Franklyn Guitierrez has not only improved the Mariner defense in center field but is batting .295 and is on pace to hit around 20 homeruns with 8-12 stolen bases.

Trade Rumors: The Mariners are in contention but the trade rumors continue to fly around left-handed starters Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn. The Mariners will attempt to trade off their peripheral players like Miguel Batista, Sean White, and Mark Lowe. According to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times even former top prospects such as Brandon Morrow, Wladimir Balentien and Jeff Clement could be moved.

Tampa Bay Rays
I was going to go on about how much I think B.J. Upton will be THE player to have in the second half of the season. About how you can expect him to almost make up for his injury-marred start. But Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus has already done it better than I would have. So check out his article "The Next Best Ballplayer" and enjoy.

Any lingering doubts about third baseman Evan Longoria as a first round pick should be completely dissipated by now. He is a stud that compares well to any other player in the first round. Outfielder Carl Crawford has also re-established himself as a first round pick. he is on pace to steal close to 80 bases. Shortstop Jason Bartlett played over his head in the first half but he should still hit for a decent average and steal lots of bases in the second half. Second baseman Ben Zobrist has not only ably replaced Akinori Iwamura but has put himself in an entirely new category with the bat. He is hitting like Ian Kinsler or Chase Utley. It is difficult to explain the sudden transformation because essentially nothing has changed but his power indicators. It would not be the first time a player had a one season surge in power only to return to normal in following seasons. I would hold on to him but be ready to sell to anyone willing to overpay.

David Price has experienced his ups and downs since his call up from the minors. He was not having a very good year at Triple-A either. But price is loaded with talent and has been an average major league starter so far with flashes of the brilliance to come. I think the flashes of brilliance will be more frequent after the break.

Trade Rumors: The Rays do not like to use valuable prospects as bait for short term rentals. They are not likely to cut any payroll as long as they remain in contention but they also are not likely to add any. The facts are they have few needs outside of the bullpen. They will look to add undervalued relievers that become available such as Clay Meredith. The Rays have talked about Roy Halladay but such an acquisition would be out of character and a huge addition to the budget.

Texas Rangers
Ian Kinsler is having a great season but it could be even better in the second half if his fluky low BABIP normalizes and brings his batting average up to it's typical levels. The pre-season sleeper to end all sleepers was outfielder Nelson Cruz and he has delivered. He has had a few mini-slumps along the way but is still on pace to hit 30-plus homers and steal more than 20 bases. He may be even better in the second half with Josh Hamilton back in the lineup. Hamilton missed big chunks of the first half due to a ribcage injury that morphed into an abdominal tear that had to be surgically compared. Though he has yet to hit his stride I feel he will deliver a monster second half to his fantasy owners.

Kevin Millwood is pitching like the ace the Rangers needed. Vicente Padilla has been a solid starter for the Rangers, but he is not of much value to fantasy owners with a 4.94 K9. Derek Holland will return to the Texas Rotation to begin the second half and is likely to stay there if all goes well. I think he's ready to impress people. Neftali Feliz will soon get the call to join the Ranger's bullpen. His ultimate destination is still in the rotation. The idea is to slowly prepare Feliz to pitch in the majors while simultaneously deepening the bullpen. He should be rostered in any league in which he can be kept.

Trade Rumors: Despite some money problems the Rangers are one of the favorites in the race to trade for Roy Halladay. They have the prospects and the management staff really wants to see it happen. They won't trade either of Holland or Feliz but just about any other prospect is a possibility.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have suffered more than their fair share of set-backs the last few years. But their biggest handicap is probably the injuries to every pitcher that makes it through the system. If they could stabilize their rotation they would be much closer to competing in the AL-East. This is one of the reasons it is unlikely the Jays are really going to trade ace Roy Halladay. the Blue Jays have an impressive collection of young pitchers who have unfortunately been plagued by injury. But impressive young starters like Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Marc Rzepczynski, and Brad Mills will look a lot better following Halladay than attempting to fill his shoes.

It seems far more likely that the Jays would trade one of their veteran outfielder like Alex Rios. They would love to move Vernon Wells but his ridiculous contract makes that close to impossible. Outfielder Adam Lind has established himself in the first half as a dangerous power hitter. Travis Snider looked okay in his stint in the majors but has been given more time to put everything together in the minors. Snider should be back at some point very soon and I expect him to be very good. Second baseman Aaron Hill and shortstop Marco Scutaro have both upped their offensive games while providing the Jays with solid defense. Hill was forgotten by some because he missed last season with injuries but his present production has always been in his potential. Scutarro has always been an underrated hitter that has never received consistent at-bats. I think both players are for real and will continue to be very productive hitters in the second half.

Trade Rumors: There has no bigger news in baseball than the Jays willingness to listen to offers for ace Roy Halladay. Halladay would love to play in St. Louis where he could join friend and former teammate Chris Carpenter in the Cardinals rotation. The Blue Jays love the Cardinals third base prospect Brett Wallace but the Cardinals may be reluctant to pay the huge price that the Jays are requesting. The Phillies are another top contender for the Toronto ace. They have the prospects and want Halladay in their rotation badly, they feel he would guarantee another run to the World Series. The Red Sox are another media favorite but they already have the best pitching in the American League and a ton of highly regarded prospects behind them. If the Red Sox are actually in need of anything it is a bat. The Los Angeles Dodgers also have the prospects and young players it would take to acquire Halladay but they have been reluctant to add payroll in recent years. However, general manager ned Colletti has talked often about adding a starter only if they find someone who would improve the present group dramatically. Halladay fits.

Moving Up: Nyjer Morgan OF Washington Nationals

Outfielder Nyjer Morgan is not a player destined to be a long term fantasy star he is 29 years old and in his first season as a fulltime regular. But he does have his uses in NL-only leagues and should see a nice boost to his fantasy value after yesterday's trade that sent him from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Washington Nationals. If you own Morgan you should be very happy right now.

Morgan is batting .277/.351/.356 with two homeruns and 18 stolen bases. The Nationals plan to have Morgan play centerfield and leadoff everyday. He will be in front of a much better offense and should see a boost in his runs scored and even his RBI totals. Manny Acta tends to allow his players to run like mad which should see Morgan approach 40-50 stolen bases this season. Make no mistake, Morgan is not a efficient base stealer but unless your league penalizes for caught stealings (or you are a Nats fan), it really isn't your problem.

Morgan has the skills to take advantage of his speed. He is an excellent contact hitter. He doesn't walk much but enough to know that a pitcher has to throw around the plate to get him out. He isn't a free swinger, he waits for his pitch. He has amazing speed and may be one of the ten fastest players in MLB. He doesn't have much power and hits most pitches on the ground. But is more likely to smack the occassional homerun than a player like Juan Pierre. Just not much more likely. He is an excellent defensive outfielder which means the Nats will be ,motivated to keep him in the lineup even during mini-slumps. He is not a great player but there is also little not to like.

Morgan should be owned in all NL-only and deep leagues and in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues. Although I like his value this season, Morgan is not a very long term keeper candidate. If an owner in your league is desperate for steals I would strongly consider making an offer. Treat Morgan as you would any speed-centric player.

I am still answering the e-mails that accumulated during my computerless weekend. If you are waiting for an answer you should see it in the next day or so.

Potential Breakout: Lastings Milledge

Lastings Milledge will turn 24-years old on opening day. Although it appears that he broke out in 2008, I believe there is quite a bit more fantasy baseball goodness coming in 2009. Milledge was moved around a injury (and talent lacking) lineup often last year. He also appears to have been a little unlucky with his BABIP judging by his line drive and ground ball rates and very good speed.

Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta recently announced more good news for Milledge owners. Milledge will act as the Nationals leadoff hitter this season with the manager's blessing to steal bases. An improved on-base percentage and a stable place in the batting order should significantly increase his stolen base opportunities. The Nationals have an all-star cast of former center fielders and leadoff hitters (Marquis Grissom and Devon White among them) in camp working with Milledge on improving his defense and his base stealing techniques and early reports have been very positive.

The Nationals' healthier (and more talented) 2009 lineup should also allow Milledge to score more runs and provide more RBI opportunities. Adam Dunn, a momentarily healthy Nick Johnson, Josh Willingham, a fulltime contribution from Elijah Dukes, and a healthy Ryan Zimmerman should transform a weak lineup into a potential powerhouse.

2009 UPSIDE: 600 at-bats, .280/.340/.440 with 20 HR, 50 RBI, 90 Runs, 40 SB

Trevor Hoffman and the Milwaukee Brewers Bullpen

Thanks to a strain in his rib cage it appears that the Brewers slightly used closer, Trevor Hoffman, will not be available to start the season. This of course kicks speculation about the next in line into overdrive. A serious oblique injury (and it appears that Hoffman's is serious) can take four to six weeks or more to heal properly. The wise money should be on the 41-year old coming in on the long side of that healing time.

From MLB.com:

"It's looking dim," manager Ken Macha said. Macha made that pronouncement after head athletic trainer Roger Caplinger told him that Hoffman won't be back on a mound for another week or so. Because he would probably need to work a few side sessions before getting into a game, it's increasingly likely that Hoffman will be sidelined, and perhaps on the disabled list, when the Brewers play their regular-season opener on April 7 in San Francisco.

Ken Macha seems to prefer right-hander Seth McClung as the temporary replacement. McClung has improved significantly since joining the Brewers and has the stuff to close. Many fantasy analysts have projected Carlos Villanueva as the next in line to close. Villanueva showcased awesome skills as the 2008 season came to an end and many expect him to breakout this season. Unfortunately, Villanueva has pitched poorly in camp, bad enough for Macha to announce publically that he has been disappointing thus far.

Sleeper Alert: David Murphy

David Murphy is expected to open the 2009 season as the starting left fielder for the Texas Rangers. Yet in AL-only leagues he has an ADP of just 209.69 behind odd choices such as Andruw Jones, George Kottaras, Daric Barton, and Melky Cabrera. The Rangers expect Murphy to set a career high in at-bats as Club President Nolan Ryan thinks he should be left in the lineup everyday to achieve his full potential. What is that potential?

Murphy should draw more walks and his plate discipline still has room for growth. However, he is a good contact hitter with plenty of power. He hits too many groundballs which limits his homerun potential to about 25 in a full season (without a major adjustment). He should hit for a solid average in the .280-.290 range. Murphy will bat in the middle of a loaded lineup which boads well for his Runs and RBI potential.

At his present draft position Murphy makes a great bargain selection in the later rounds of AL-only and even deeper mixed league drafts.

Bust Alert: Dontrelle Willis

I am certain no one is surprised that Dontrelle Willis is counted among this season's near certain disaster picks. It has been a few years since he was even worth drafting. He was once one of my favorite pitchers in baseball and in fact I still like him and root for him. But he will not anywhere near my fantasy teams.

It's hard to pinpoint exactly what went wrong for Willis. His velocity is down at times which is certainly a problem but he still flashes low 90's with his fastball at times. He is certainly no longer deceptive which makes his jerky mechanics even more of a problem (as they are hard to repeat and stay consistent with). The Tigers experimented with changing his mechanics altogether but halfway through spring training, Willis has abandoned the new motion and returned to his old form.

I believe it is very possible that Willis has an injury that he is either not revealing (for some stupid reason) or just plain has not discovered yet. If I ran the Tigers I would be putting him through all the full body scans medical technology have to offer. I would consult with independent pitching coaches about his deception problems and whether he is somehow tipping his pitches.

In any case, until the source of his troubles is found and addressed Willis cannot be drafted.

The Dontrelle Willis Problem

Pitching Coach Advises Willis

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable - Week Five

This week I have the privilege of hosting this week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable. The question I posed to my fellow analysts?

What is your favorite source or method of uncovering sleepers?

Brett Greenfield - Fantasy Phenoms
An effective method for finding sleepers is to use sabermetric statistics. I use K/9 ratio, ERC differential and DIPS differential.

When looking for strikeouts, the K/9 ratio is much more important than the overall number of strikeouts tallied. Jonathan Sanchez, for example, struck out 157 batters in 158 innings last year. While 157 strikeouts may not seem so impressive, Sanchez struck out nearly a batter per inning. His K/9 ratio of 8.94 was ranked 7th in the majors behind only Tim Lincecum, AJ Burnett, Edinson Volquez, Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir and Chad Billingsley. Sanchez could strike out 200 batters, given 200 innings.

Sanchez also finished with a 5.01 ERA, which is far from impressive. However, looking at his DIPS and ERC differentials can shed some light on how much better his numbers should have been. His DIPS was 3.87 and his ERC was 4.32. Both of those ERA's are far lower than his actual ERA of 5.01.

Using sabermetric pitching statistics is definitely my favorite method for finding sleepers.

Patrick Cain - Albany Times Union
How to find sleepers?

One thing I do - and I'm sure there is an easier way - is I have a program that I wrote that collects first and second half splits for players. I then make them into rate stats and look for sizable jumps. I'm a big fan of players who make strides in their second half, assuming there is a reason for the gain.

Take for example Alex Gordon. Last year he made big gains in the second half...was this just luck or was it he's finally adjusting to major league pitching. Well, I hope for my sake, it's the later. Or, not-so-much-a-sleeper but Miguel Cabrera. Perhaps his second half improvement was he adjusted to the AL. These types of reasons, mixed with realistic increases (not something like Manny's) puts a man on my sleeper list.

Adam Ronis - Newsday
A lot of people like to look at last season's numbers and harp on those too much often ignoring a track record and a history of good skills. I like to examine these players and figure out why they had poor seasons. These are good players to look at because they come at a discount or minimal cost. Ian Snell is one example. He barely gets drafted in mixed leagues after being highly touted last season. He had some bad luck and an injury, but the numbers from 2008 get etched in the mental hard drive of many owners. That's a good thing. He's a good sleeper that should bounce back and won't cost much.

I also look at young players that came into the big leagues with a lot of hype and have failed to live up to the lofty expectations. When this happens, people tend to forget about these players. Alex Gordon is an example. Brandon Wood is an even more extreme example. Not everyone is Ryan Braun. Sometimes it takes longer for younger players to adapt to the major leagues. These players can often be sleepers, too.


Rudy Gamble - Razzball.com
I base sleeper candidates on two criteria: skill and opportunity. My main method for hitters is to scour depth charts and look for soft spots. If the 'soft spot' player has shown skill in the past, they may be worth a low investment (think Cantu and Ludwick last year). In addition, hot prospects who have seatwarmers or injury-prone players above them on the depth chart are worthwhile gambles. It's tougher in shallower leagues to make these gambles as 'Super 2' status means it'll likely be May before even the most obvious prospect is brought up (Braun, Longoria, this year Wieters).

For starting pitchers, I look at their league (favor NL), division (NL West is best), home park, ability to K guys (walks don't bother me as much), and fastball MPH. For good pitching prospects, I look to see if there's a potential opening (most staffs there are) and look at their MLE (major league equivalent) data from the minor leagues. This could either be gotten directly through a Baseball HQ (although last year's 'can't misses' of Cueto and Parra didn't help me) or gleaned by the current year projections of a CHONE or ZiPS.

For relievers, K rate and opportunity.

Tim Dierkes - RotoAuthority.com
In the preseason, it has become somewhat difficult to come up with sleepers no one else has. If we all write about the same 20-30 sleepers and play in leagues against each other, those sleepers start getting drafted before similar established players. I like Nelson Cruz and Chris Davis, even to the point of taking them a round or two early. But when they go earlier than that I have to let them go. It's kind of win-win for me - I look good for the rec if they succeed, and don't have them on my team if they fail!

To find the Cruzes and Davises it's just a matter of coming up with good projections and dollar values and comparing them to average draft position reports. If a $15 player is going after the 10th round you might have a sleeper, until the hype machine rears its ugly head. The power of that hype machine depends on the level of your competition, because the magazines everyone uses typically lag behind the web in quality of analysis.

I've started to turn toward players where the strict statistical projections aren't impressive but the tools are there for good years. Could be youngsters like Jordan Zimmermann and Josh Fields or veterans like Gary Sheffield and Brad Penny. Hopefully late-round flyers on these types will pay off.

Jon Williams - RotoExperts.com
For hitters I like to look at players about to experience a huge increase in at-bats. Often players going from bench roles to fulltime (or close enough) will be underrated due to small sample sizes of their ability. One of my favorite examples for this coming season is Russell Branyan. Branyan has rarely received more than a token role in the major leagues for a variety of reasons. What is clear however is that if given 400-500 at-bats he begins to look a lot like Adam Dunn, Jack Cust, and Ryan Ludwick who will certainly cost up to ten times as much.

When it comes to pitchers I do my best to ignore roles altogether. I love to find pitchers that have shown the ability to induce groundballs and collect strikeouts. These are the pitchers who are helping themselves the most by eliminating as many park and team factors as possible. One of my favorite examples for this season is David Huff of the Indians who I expect to play a huge role in the Indians 2009 season.

Andrew Cleary - Fantasy Pros 911

My favorite method comes from the end of the previous season. In the last weeks of any fantasy season, I usually find myself scrambling for the few remaining free agents that can give the least, final benefit to my run at the title. By this time in the year, the breakout stars and proven veterans are long since entrenched on everyone's rosters, and the free agent list is full of new call-ups and streaky sometime-stars. Since I'm already evaluating pitchers and hitters to guess at whether their skills will give a good boost to my stats or not, I also keep a list of those that look like they have the skills for future success.

That's why I found myself last year adding pitchers like Andy Sonnanstine, Dallas Braden, and Chad Gaudin for some last-minute wins and strikeouts. They all had some good outings at the end of the season, and so were tantalizing bait for nervous managers like me. But I also was able to get a close enough look at their skills to know that they also each had a fair chance to make significant contributions in 2009.

Keeping this list helps me scout out some players that might be under the radar in the following year. And having that focus on the future helps keep me from going nuts over the fact that only a few more wins and strikeouts could keep me in the money. Whew!