Monday, March 30, 2009

Gaston Considering Scott Downs as Closer


Scott Downs is an excellent pitcher who had a great 2008 season. Toronto Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston is concerned that B.J. Ryan may not be ready to close. He would install Downs as the temporary closer until Ryan is ready.
From Yahoo.com
Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston expressed concern about closer B.J. Ryan after he pitched a shaky eighth inning in Toronto’s 3-1 loss to the New York Yankees on Monday. Ryan gave up one run and two hits, including Angel Berroa’s RBI double to left-center. The left-hander, who skipped the World Baseball Classic to work on his mechanics, has a 9.00 ERA this spring. Gaston said he might consider making Scott Downs the closer and putting Ryan “somewhere else for a while and go from there.” He said he wants to see how Ryan does in his final two spring appearances. “I haven’t checked the velocity yet,” Gaston said, “but it looked like it might have been down today. So there are still some concerns about him.”

All Ryan owners should seek out Scott Downs as saves insurance. Even if he doesn't become even the temporary closer, Downs is a quality middle reliever worthy of a roster spot in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues.

Braves Deal Center Fielder to Tigers


The Atlanta Braves sent outfielder Josh Anderson to the Detroit Tigers for reliever Rudy Darrow. This is pretty clear evidence that top prospect Jordan Schafer has won Atlanta's center field job.
From MLB.com
Anderson was in competition for the center-field job with the Braves, but immediately hit the trading block when he apparently lost out to Jordan Schafer. He'll be an extra outfielder in Detroit, where the starting trio of Curtis Granderson, Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez is set. The 26-year-old Anderson played 40 games with the Braves last year, batting .294 with seven doubles, three home runs, 12 RBIs and 10 stolen bases. His Minor League numbers give a better glimpse of his speed, he swiped 42 bases in 49 attempts over 121 games at Triple-A Richmond last year and boasts 280 stolen bases in his six-year Minor League career.
Jordan Schafer should add speed and power to the Braves lineup. I see him becoming an eventual 20/20 type on an annual basis. I hardily recommend him in all NL-only leagues and he should contribute in deeper mixed leagues as well.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

The Cubs Name Kevin Gregg Closer

From the Chicago Tribune:
MESA, Ariz. - Cubs manager Lou Piniella named Kevin Gregg the team's closer on Sunday over Carlos Marmol. Piniella spoke to both pitchers this morning and made his announcement after batting practice at HoHoKam Park. Piniella's difficult decision was made even harder because he knows what Marmol can do while he’s only just learning about Gregg.

Statistically speaking, Gregg has outperformed Marmol this spring, throwing 8 1/3 shutout innings in nine appearances. Marmol has compiled a 4.50 earned-run average and hit five batters in eight innings, not counting his numbers from the World Baseball Classic. Marmol and Gregg both have 10 strikeouts, while Marmol has walked one and Gregg has walked two.
I think this is the right decision for the Cubs but there are going to be a lot of disappointed Marmol owners as this news spreads. Gregg should be a perfectly compentent source of saves without the gaudy strikeout numbers that Marmol provides. Marmol of course is a perfectly fine choice as a middle reliever with saves potential.

Hot Prospect: Rick Porcello


With Nate Robertson injured and Dontrelle Willis now on the disabled list with "performance anxiety" (sounds pretty bad) it appears that top prospect Rick Porcello has a very good chance to begin the season in the major leagues. Few who have seen him pitch doubt that Porcello would eventually be at the top of the Detroit Tiger's rotation. However, who knew it would come after just one full season in the minors?

While we all hate it when teams rush young players, Porcello appears to be ready. He has always had an advanced approach to pitching and is very good at conserving his energy and keeping his pitch count low. He has a fastball that can hit 97-98 but prefers to pitch in the 90-94 range where he has greater movement. He could probably pile up huge strikeout numbers were that his preference but he would rather conserve pitches and induce groundballs.

If you can live with middling strikeout numbers (I expect he'll be in the 5.5 to 6.5 K9 range) from a great groundballer, Porcello makes an excellent late-rounds selection.

Scouting Report: Rick Porcello


Willis to focus on health

Bonderman likely to miss first start

Perry continues to impress Leyland

The New Mariners Closer is Brandon Morrow

According to reports from Larry LaRue of the News Tribune, Brandon Morrow is returning to the Seattle Mariner's bullpen. The young right-hander and Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu both want Morrow in the closer role which should cinch the deal. The only potential obstacle is apparently Morrow's handling of his diabetes. Morrow suggested his own return to the bullpen as the closer when it became apparant he was failing to make the starting rotation.
The only thing Morrow needs to prove now is that he can close regularly despite diabetes, a disease that can rock him unexpectedly. On Sunday, for instance, Morrow’s blood sugar level was high and his energy level down.
Morrow has the stuff to close but still has occasional control issues. He will need to be going strong when Chad Cordero is ready to return in late May. Cordero still makes a nice low risk/high reward reserve stash.

Morrow wants to close - and he almost certainly will

Sleeper Alert: Emilio Bonifacio


It looks like the Florida Marlins have chosen a winner in the battle for the job of starting first baseman. That winner appears to be Emilio Bonifacio who has started the last few games at the position. This results in Jorge Cantu moving from third base to first base and Gaby Sanchez going to triple-A. Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez has also suggested that if he makes the team he will hit leadoff. Cameron Maybin would hit second (an excellent place for a talented rookie to hit).

In most leagues Bonifacio will only qualify at second base. However, he should soon qualify at third base and may give Hanley Ramirez the occasional day off at shortstop. Most analysts expected the switch-hitting Bonifacio to be a utility player and that may be his ultimate role but he does have good on-base skills and the speed to steal bases. As with most speed reliant players he hits more than 50 percent of his balls in play on the ground. He does not have much power but will crush a mistake pitch.

Presently you can draft Bonifacio in the later rounds of NL-only drafts and he'll probably be available in shallow mixed leagues. If given 500 at-bats the upside looks something like this:

.270/.340/.400 w/3-5 homeruns, 70 runs, 40 RBI, 40 stolen bases

Bonifacio Leading Off

The Marlins' Prized Possession

Friday, March 27, 2009

Five Spring Training Questions Without Answers

There is no longer any doubt that Chase Utley will be ready and in the lineup for the Phillies on Opening Day. His plate discipline and patience should be unaffected. Judging by the small example we've seen in spring training he'll have no problem driving the ball. The only aspect of his game that we have yet to see is the stolen base. If the stolen base is no longer part of Utley's arsenal how will that change his value? He would still be one of the better second basemen in the National League due to his ability to hit for average and power in a loaded lineup.

If Joba Chamberlain can duplicate his performance as a starter in 2008 for the entire 2009 season he will easily be a top ten starter. The question remains if health and the Yankees will allow him to do it. He hasn't had a very encouraging spring for anyone concerned. His velocity has been down and he has appeared to be far less intense than would be ideal. It could be just a spring training issue. His velocity was down last spring and it exploded when he moved to the bullpen. Is this a Joba who is being ultra careful not to get hurt and to preserve his arm for a long season? Or is this a Joba already injured and trying to pitch through pain?

What about the Red Sox pitching staff? There are too many available bodies with another collection of arms that should be ready for the majors in in May/June. Justin Masterson is still in the running for a starting role according to recent reports and so is Clay Buchholz. What will happen with Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and John Smoltz if they are all effective and ready if Masterson and Buchholz are pitching well behind Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Jon Lester? Rather than become clearer, this situation has become murkier. Let's not even get into the bullpen...

What is the right price to pay for Alex Rodriguez? There is noise about his rehab going well but when have you ever heard that rehab was going horribly? The cloud of controversey around him seems to get bigger and darker everyday. Even if he comes back and is effective in say June the injury risk will remain huge since effectively his injury has been patched not fixed. Will this make the problem worse in the long run? What if he comes back in 2010 and has lost a step? Minus stolen bases doesn't A-Rod become Aramis Ramirez? Not bad but not someone you want to pay first round value to have.

It probably isn't bugging others as much as me but who the hell is going to be in the Pittsburgh Pirates outfield, especially in left field? Nyjer Morgan is a speedy fourth outfielder who the Pirates seem willing to give an extended opportunity. Andrew McCutcheon is the most talented option but the Pirates will want to send him down long enough to delay arbitration by a year. Steve Pearce deserves an opportunity but doesn't seem to be very appreciated by management considering the way he's been dismissed as a possibility for two straight seasons. Brandon Moss has battled injury and is probably another fourth outfielder ultimately but maybe he's another David Murphy (another Red Sox cast away). The one lock is Nate McClouth who is probably the center fielder but if the Pirates are going to start a mediocre offensive option like Morgan wouldn't make sense to have him in center to maximize the defensive possibilities? I personally believe it may be a mish-mash of option the entire season.