The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable - Week Five

This week I have the privilege of hosting this week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable. The question I posed to my fellow analysts?

What is your favorite source or method of uncovering sleepers?

Brett Greenfield - Fantasy Phenoms
An effective method for finding sleepers is to use sabermetric statistics. I use K/9 ratio, ERC differential and DIPS differential.

When looking for strikeouts, the K/9 ratio is much more important than the overall number of strikeouts tallied. Jonathan Sanchez, for example, struck out 157 batters in 158 innings last year. While 157 strikeouts may not seem so impressive, Sanchez struck out nearly a batter per inning. His K/9 ratio of 8.94 was ranked 7th in the majors behind only Tim Lincecum, AJ Burnett, Edinson Volquez, Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir and Chad Billingsley. Sanchez could strike out 200 batters, given 200 innings.

Sanchez also finished with a 5.01 ERA, which is far from impressive. However, looking at his DIPS and ERC differentials can shed some light on how much better his numbers should have been. His DIPS was 3.87 and his ERC was 4.32. Both of those ERA's are far lower than his actual ERA of 5.01.

Using sabermetric pitching statistics is definitely my favorite method for finding sleepers.

Patrick Cain - Albany Times Union
How to find sleepers?

One thing I do - and I'm sure there is an easier way - is I have a program that I wrote that collects first and second half splits for players. I then make them into rate stats and look for sizable jumps. I'm a big fan of players who make strides in their second half, assuming there is a reason for the gain.

Take for example Alex Gordon. Last year he made big gains in the second half...was this just luck or was it he's finally adjusting to major league pitching. Well, I hope for my sake, it's the later. Or, not-so-much-a-sleeper but Miguel Cabrera. Perhaps his second half improvement was he adjusted to the AL. These types of reasons, mixed with realistic increases (not something like Manny's) puts a man on my sleeper list.

Adam Ronis - Newsday
A lot of people like to look at last season's numbers and harp on those too much often ignoring a track record and a history of good skills. I like to examine these players and figure out why they had poor seasons. These are good players to look at because they come at a discount or minimal cost. Ian Snell is one example. He barely gets drafted in mixed leagues after being highly touted last season. He had some bad luck and an injury, but the numbers from 2008 get etched in the mental hard drive of many owners. That's a good thing. He's a good sleeper that should bounce back and won't cost much.

I also look at young players that came into the big leagues with a lot of hype and have failed to live up to the lofty expectations. When this happens, people tend to forget about these players. Alex Gordon is an example. Brandon Wood is an even more extreme example. Not everyone is Ryan Braun. Sometimes it takes longer for younger players to adapt to the major leagues. These players can often be sleepers, too.


Rudy Gamble - Razzball.com
I base sleeper candidates on two criteria: skill and opportunity. My main method for hitters is to scour depth charts and look for soft spots. If the 'soft spot' player has shown skill in the past, they may be worth a low investment (think Cantu and Ludwick last year). In addition, hot prospects who have seatwarmers or injury-prone players above them on the depth chart are worthwhile gambles. It's tougher in shallower leagues to make these gambles as 'Super 2' status means it'll likely be May before even the most obvious prospect is brought up (Braun, Longoria, this year Wieters).

For starting pitchers, I look at their league (favor NL), division (NL West is best), home park, ability to K guys (walks don't bother me as much), and fastball MPH. For good pitching prospects, I look to see if there's a potential opening (most staffs there are) and look at their MLE (major league equivalent) data from the minor leagues. This could either be gotten directly through a Baseball HQ (although last year's 'can't misses' of Cueto and Parra didn't help me) or gleaned by the current year projections of a CHONE or ZiPS.

For relievers, K rate and opportunity.

Tim Dierkes - RotoAuthority.com
In the preseason, it has become somewhat difficult to come up with sleepers no one else has. If we all write about the same 20-30 sleepers and play in leagues against each other, those sleepers start getting drafted before similar established players. I like Nelson Cruz and Chris Davis, even to the point of taking them a round or two early. But when they go earlier than that I have to let them go. It's kind of win-win for me - I look good for the rec if they succeed, and don't have them on my team if they fail!

To find the Cruzes and Davises it's just a matter of coming up with good projections and dollar values and comparing them to average draft position reports. If a $15 player is going after the 10th round you might have a sleeper, until the hype machine rears its ugly head. The power of that hype machine depends on the level of your competition, because the magazines everyone uses typically lag behind the web in quality of analysis.

I've started to turn toward players where the strict statistical projections aren't impressive but the tools are there for good years. Could be youngsters like Jordan Zimmermann and Josh Fields or veterans like Gary Sheffield and Brad Penny. Hopefully late-round flyers on these types will pay off.

Jon Williams - RotoExperts.com
For hitters I like to look at players about to experience a huge increase in at-bats. Often players going from bench roles to fulltime (or close enough) will be underrated due to small sample sizes of their ability. One of my favorite examples for this coming season is Russell Branyan. Branyan has rarely received more than a token role in the major leagues for a variety of reasons. What is clear however is that if given 400-500 at-bats he begins to look a lot like Adam Dunn, Jack Cust, and Ryan Ludwick who will certainly cost up to ten times as much.

When it comes to pitchers I do my best to ignore roles altogether. I love to find pitchers that have shown the ability to induce groundballs and collect strikeouts. These are the pitchers who are helping themselves the most by eliminating as many park and team factors as possible. One of my favorite examples for this season is David Huff of the Indians who I expect to play a huge role in the Indians 2009 season.

Andrew Cleary - Fantasy Pros 911

My favorite method comes from the end of the previous season. In the last weeks of any fantasy season, I usually find myself scrambling for the few remaining free agents that can give the least, final benefit to my run at the title. By this time in the year, the breakout stars and proven veterans are long since entrenched on everyone's rosters, and the free agent list is full of new call-ups and streaky sometime-stars. Since I'm already evaluating pitchers and hitters to guess at whether their skills will give a good boost to my stats or not, I also keep a list of those that look like they have the skills for future success.

That's why I found myself last year adding pitchers like Andy Sonnanstine, Dallas Braden, and Chad Gaudin for some last-minute wins and strikeouts. They all had some good outings at the end of the season, and so were tantalizing bait for nervous managers like me. But I also was able to get a close enough look at their skills to know that they also each had a fair chance to make significant contributions in 2009.

Keeping this list helps me scout out some players that might be under the radar in the following year. And having that focus on the future helps keep me from going nuts over the fact that only a few more wins and strikeouts could keep me in the money. Whew!

Spring Training Report: Barry Zito

Barry Zito was always a little overrated when he was a member of the Oakland Athletics. That meant that rather than an annual Cy Young contender he was more like a slightly above average starter. There are a million theories about what has happened to him since then -- everything from growing lazy to missing his old pitching coach. But what is absolutely certain is that thus far he has been a disaster for the San Francisco Giants and the fantasy owners that have drafted him. This period may be coming to a close.

Barry Zito has shown increased energy and a real desire to recover what he has lost this spring. And while this is certainly subjective noise, it is starting to bear out in his spring stats. Observers like manager Bill Bochy and center fielder Aaron Rowand have noted that his control has been much sharper and he is pitching in a sytle closer to the way he pitched in Oakland. His spring stats still don't look very good but they have been much better in his last two starts and the new found energy has been present throughout spring training.

Fantasy owners shouldn't target Zito in fantasy drafts but in leagues where you have the ability to hold him in reserve or easily replace him -- Zito is becoming worthy of a late round speculative pick.

MLB.com Report on Zito's latest start

Injury Report: Joe Mauer Not Likely for Opening Day

According to La Velle E. Neal's Twins Insider Blog, Joe Mauer is very questionable for opening day. After multiple consultations there is consensus that the problem is indeed inflammation of the sacroiliac joint - the joint that connects the bottom of the spine to the top of the pelvis. However, no one seems to have any idea how the problem arose in the first place.

Fantasy owners should avoid drafting Mauer unless they are receiving a deep discount on his usual price. Owners in non-keeper leagues would be wise to avoid him altogether at this point. I would not project more than 350 at-bats just to be on the safe side. If this means Mauer is undraftable then so be it.

Paper Sports: Short Fantasy Baseball Tournaments

A couple of weeks ago I was approached by Rod Yancy, the founder of PaperSports.com about reviewing his site's short season fantasy baseball tournaments. He provided an account with enough in it to enter a few of the games. I came away pretty impressed with the product despite not being able to truly test the system due to baseball season still being weeks away. It feels a lot like playing poker but with baseball players instead of cards. So, if you love fantasy baseball and you're also the type to participate in online poker tournaments this will be right up your alley.

This would probably be a blast to play in sports bars while you watch games. I haven't tried creating a custom tournament yet but I imagine you could use just one specific game for the contest. That would make watching the games an intense blast. Kinda like that old bar game for football for which I cannot think of the name. I encourage everyone to check it out.

Here's how it works:

1. Open an Account - Get $5 Free

Sign up and deposit money into your account with a credit card or PayPal. If you sign up now, we'll start you with $5 and you have to deposit nothing. This is a limited time offer and will end soon.

2. Pick Your Tournament

You will never have to wait to play. Tournaments generally last one day and there are multiple entry levels.You pick the tournaments you want to play when you want to play. Tournaments start 24/7 You can play for as little as $1. There are multiple tournament types, like head to head, four man, six man, and ten man. You can test your skills in public tournaments, or create a custom tournament and invite your friends.

3. Pick a Fantasy Baseball Team

Pick your team for one day's worth of match-ups. Your roster will include: 1-1st, 1-2nd, 1-SS, 1-3rd, 1-Catcher, 3-Outfield, 3-Pitchers.

4. Watch The Games

While you watch the games, the PaperSports game engine will score your fantasy tournament. Your fantasy team will earn points based on standard fantasy baseball rules.

5. Win Cash Fast

If your fantasy team earns the most points, we put your guaranteed cash prize into your account. You can withdraw from your account anytime via credit card, PayPal, or we will even mail you a check.

Future Tense: Top 50 Prospects

Mark Haverty has written the Sporting News Annual Top 50 Prospects reports for years. This year the report is exclusive to Crucial Sports - Haverty's own website. This is a great list whether for fantasy purposes or just a general love of prospects because it helps readers understand the true value of prospects. The prospect with years of experience in the minors is usually rated higher than the prospect with awesome tools but no track record. Check out a sample below and check out the full report and the write-ups at the link below.

Check out the Full Top 50 Prospect Report

1. Matt Wieters, Catcher, Baltimore Orioles

The best catching prospect in the minors, Wieters possesses not only plus power potential but also impeccable plate discipline. Wieters barely struck out more than he walked in High-A Frederick (44 walks, 47 strikeouts), and he drew more walks than strikeouts (38:29) while in Double-A Bowie. The trading of Ramon Hernandez by the Orioles this offseason was one with one thing in mind – clearing room for Wieters to be the starting catcher in 2009.

2. David Price, Starting Pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays

3. Tommy Hanson, Starting Pitcher, Atlanta Braves

4. Madison Bumgarner, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants

5. Jason Heyward, Outfielder, Atlanta Braves

6. Colby Rasmus, Outfielder, St. Louis Cardinals

7. Travis Snider, Outfielder, St. Louis Cardinals

8. Cameron Maybin, Outfielder, Florida Marlins

9. Brett Anderson, Starting Pitcher, Oakland Athletics

10. Trevor Cahill, Starting Pitcher, Oakland Athletics

Check out the Full Top 50 Prospect Report

Sleeper Alert: Gordon Beckham (from the Waiver Wire)

The Waiver (Wire) is a column I will be writing for Crucial Sports this season. It should appear on Mondays. It will feature write-ups of players that are available in a lot of leagues. I think you'll find it very useful. You can click the link above to check out the most recent version.

This week one of the player's featured is Gordon Beckham. His performance this spring is making it difficult for the Chicago White Sox to settle for one of their more mediocre options. This is just a small sample from a much larger article.

Gordon Beckham 2B Chicago White Sox

He belongs in the big leagues. Every scout and general manager that has seen Gordon Beckham play this spring has said that he looks ready. He has just 56 at-bats at single-A but White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams would love him to begin the season as the starting second baseman. Though it seems unlikely, Beckham only has to be a better option that the underwhelming group of Chris Getz, Jayson Nix, and Brent Lillibridge. Beckham came from the University of Georgia, which has a level of play comparable to the lower minors. He projects to hit for average and power with the speed to steal bases. He was a shortstop at the University of Georgia but the switch to second should not be a problem. Beckham hit .411 with 28 homers and 77 RBI in 71 games for the Bulldogs. He also stole 17 bases. In 14 games at Class A for the White Sox he hit .310 with 3 homers and 8 RBI. He then went on to the Arizona Fall League where he hit .394 with 3 homers and 13 RBI in 18 games. As of his first ten appearances this spring, he has hit .364 with two homers, five doubles, and six RBI. He belongs in the big leagues.

Spring Training Things (lotsa links)

Lots of leg room at New Yankee Stadium
Wherever you are sitting this morning, be happy it is not in those seats. Obviously, they are not in their permanent home (we hope!), but with how this new stadium relocation process has been going, anything is possible. After all, the Yankees did build a restaurant that blocks the view for half of the people in the bleachers!

Joe Mauer diagnosed with inflammation
Catcher Joe Mauer has inflammation in his right sacroiliac joint, the Twins said Wednesday, but the team is waiting to consult with other doctors before determining a course of action to treat it.

Dustin McGowan is now out indefinitely
McGowan, who underwent season-ending surgery on his right shoulder in July, complained of discomfort in his arm this past week and visited his surgeon, Dr. Timothy Kremchek, on Sunday in Sarasota, Fla. According to Blue Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, Kremchek didn't find anything wrong besides the expected wear and tear.

Free Emerald Guide to Baseball from SABR
Edited by accomplished and acclaimed baseball historians Gary Gillette and Pete Palmer and published by SABR, The Emerald Guide distills the 2008 season down to 586 fact-filled pages that contain the pitching, fielding, and hitting statistics for every player active in the major and minor leagues in 2008. A bound version is available via print on demand at Lulu.com for $23.94. .Every page in the bound edition is in the PDF.

Posada Sets Joba Chamberlain Straight
"I caught him in the bullpen after that and I told him what I saw was embarrassing," Posada said yesterday before being used as the designated hitter against the Tigers in a 7-4 loss at Joker Marchant Stadium. "I told him to throw the fastball and stop waiting for things to happen. I told him he has to pitch like he can every time no matter what. Whether it's as a starter, reliever or even in the bullpen, people are watching."

The THT Guide to Tiered Drafting
The ranking part of the tier system recommends paying more time and attention to slotting players into tiers, both overall and by position, rather than worrying too much about rankings within tiers (i.e. getting more exact dollar values or rankings). In general, I think this is useful. I would rather have system that put all of the players into their actual, true tiers but then got the ordering within the tiers somewhat wrong, than a system that got many of the exact rankings rights but messed up on some players' tiering. In other words, many small mistakes are usually better than several big ones.

Is Cashman bluffing about starting Cody Ransom?
I e-mailed with a major league GM, who has a third baseman very available, who said he has not been contacted by Brian Cashman. This could mean the Yankees aren't looking around, don't like this particular third baseman or something in between.

J.A. Happ is impressing the Philadelphia Phillies
Happ, who had a lengthy discussion about pitching with Jamie Moyer during Wednesday's game against the Braves at Bright House Field, had his mind turning in the visitors' clubhouse afterward. He allowed a home run to Gape Kapler on a first-pitch fastball in the sixth, and he issued a two-out walk to Morgan Ensberg in the seventh.

Cleveland Indians Camp
Still, I'm not completely sold on Cabrera, and neither, apparently, are the Indians. I think part of the reason they didn't keep Mark DeRosa at second base and shift Jhonny Peralta to third to move Cabrera to short is because they want to see if Cabrera can contribute offensively for the duration of a season first. But there's no reason Cabrera should have to compete with Barfield for a starting spot here in Spring Training.

Sleeper Alert: Joe Mather

The St. Louis Cardinals have sent both David Freese and Brett Wallace (their two best third base prospects) to minor league camp. This leaves Joe Mather, a converted outfielder, as the favorite to begin the season at third base. As I am certain most of you realize that the Cardinals expected third baseman, Troy Glaus, will begin the season on the disabled list and miss at least the first month of the season recovering from shoulder surgery. This will be the winner's chance to shine in the eyes of Tony LaRussa who already seems to have a slight man-crush on Mather.

"But", you might say. It will only be for a month or so and then Glaus will be back and our man will be out of a job. "Well", I would answer, "not exactly."

If Joe Mather impresses Tony LaRussa (and I obviously believe that he will), he is very likely to favor him coming off the bench as an extra infielder and outfielder. This is easily a recipe for finding 350-400 at-bats. I also happen to think Mather is a 30-plus homerun hitter waiting to break out.

Mather was drafted in the third round out of Mountain Pointe high school in Phoenix, Arizona - as a shortstop. He spent way too long in short season leagues and did not develop as quickly as the cards would have liked. But for two years he has been solid (if a little old in AA and AAA). He did not embarass himself in short stents in the major leagues either.

The best news for fantasy owners is that you're likely to get him for just a few bucks in even the deepest leagues. The Cardinals have another guy who began his major league career playing out of position as a temporary replacement for a more established but injury prone player. Damn, I wonder who that was???

Season	Team	AB	PA	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	wOBA
Total	- - -	133	147	7	8	20	18	12	32	1	0	0.241	0.335
2006	Cardinals (A+)	432	482	33	15	63	71	36	89	9	0	0.266	0.359
2007	Cardinals (AA)	234	272	17	18	48	46	29	32	4	0	0.303	0.426
2007	Cardinals (AAA)	249	283	10	12	30	29	22	51	5	0	0.237	0.337
2008	Cardinals (AAA)	211	254	14	17	45	41	32	36	7	2	0.303	0.44
2008	Cardinals	133	147	7	8	20	18	12	32	1	0	0.241	0.335
2009	Bill James	162		9	10	26	24	17	28	3	1	0.253	0.354
2009	CHONE	415		22	19	63	61	41	88	6	2	0.253	0.343
2009	Marcel	245	274	13	10	35	33	24	51	3	1	0.261	0.334
2009	Oliver	360	401	22	19			30	77			0.253	0.343
2009	ZiPS	428		22	18	53	63	34	79	7	1	0.243	0.325

More on Joe Mather:

Sportsnet.com Scouting Report
Future RedBirds Profile
FanGraphs.com Statistics Page
The Baseball Cube Report
WikiPedia Page

Book Reviews by Alex Patton

Anyone that receives BaseballHQ's Free Friday Newsletter has likely seen this already. Alex Patton, one of my favorite fantasy baseball analysts and one of the longest lasting, wrote a piece for the newsletter reviewing a few Fantasy Baseball publications. For those that did not see it you can find it here.

Here are the books he reviewed and a very brief sample of the reviews:

The Bill James Handbook 2009 $23.95

This is the first stat book that appears in print each fall, and everyone who's even remotely into fantasy baseball snaps it up immediately, so there's no reason to dwell on it. I'll just point out some of the very cool things that are new...

Ron Shandler's 2009 Baseball Forecaster $24.95

It's probably fair to say that more people reading this article buy the Forecaster than the Bill James Handbook, so there's no point in me praising it too lavishly. I'll praise it briefly, then offer just a couple of criticisms.

Baseball Prospectus 2009 $21.95

This is the other publication that throws a ton of fancier metrics in with the standard stats in the stat scans. At more than 600 pages, space is no object. Thus, while the Forecaster combines Aviles Triple-A and MLB stats last year into a combined 633 AB, BP gives Aviles two lines of stats. In fewer than 50 words, the Forecaster basically says, Beware. In approximately 180 words, BP says beware.

Graphical Player 2009 $21.95

I bought this annual for the first time this winter, and so far, to tell the truth, have been finding it a tough go.

Fantasy Baseball Magazines

The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2009 $6.99

Gets check marks ahead of all the other ones out there, except, well, it's not all that pretty. Reluctance to say so is based on the fairly well-known fact that my friend Peter Kreutzer (aka Rotoman) is the editor.

Sporting News Fantasy Baseball '09 $7.99

Here I have paid the extra dollar for glossy pages and wider columns, and I love it! Only one problem: 700+ profiles.Are they kidding me? What am I supposed to do when someone says Gil Velazquez in the end game and I go speed-dialing down to the V's and he's not there?

Fanball Fantasy Baseball 2009 $7.99

The big thing here is multiple cheat sheets, each clearly spelling out what the prices are based on. There are three sets of prices: 5x5 AL-only, 5x5 NL-only, and 5x5 mixed. It's hard to figure what the reasoning is for the prices in the mixed leagues. Hanley Ramirez costs more in mixed than in NL-only, which I happen to agree with. But Grady Sizemore costs less in mixed than in AL-only, which I don't agree with and is totally inconsistent.

Fantasy Sports $5.99

I'm looking at the April issue, the one with (at least in New York) David Wright on the cover. Kind of ironic that this is the cheapest of the magazines, since the editor, Greg Ambrosius, is the driving force behind the high-stakes National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Greg has opted to deal with the pricing issue by offering AL-only dollar values by position, NL-only dollar values by position, and mixed-league rankings by position. All for 5x5 leagues.

2009 Major League Baseball Yearbook & Fantasy Guide $9.95

Almost ten bucks?? Yes, I admit it. I can't resist any of them. This one's got a lot of things going for it. 850+ players in the profiles. Hitters alphabetized, pitchers alphabetized. Three-year stat scans, with 2008 also broken into first half, second half. Prices for 5x5 AL-only, NL-only and mixed leagues. That's good. They are the same for all three, though, and that's not right.

Wise Guy Baseball 2009

Not sure what the price is. Gene McCaffrey sent it to me. He doesn't even give contact information, but I'll give you his email address anyway: GenetheM@aol.com. Gene is the original wise guy of the title. John Menna and Ken Magna are his "special guests." Tom Zownir contributes something called The Hitmen. It's basically a crank-press item directed at the CDM contest leagues. But baseball is baseball and good comments are good comments.

Alex Rodriguez Surgery to Cost at Least 10 weeks

I can not be the only one getting the feeling the Yankees and Alex Rodriguez are not on the same page. After a couple days of insisting that A-Rod would attempt rest and rehab before pursuing surgery as an option, it turns out that the initial reports attributed to A-Rod's brother were very accurate. On Monday A-Rod will have arthroscopic hip surgery. Reports are that A-Rod will miss six to nine weeks and will require further surgery after the season.

I do not usually report on individual injuries like this but this is something that every fantasy owner needs to know. A-Rod will not miss just six to nine weeks. After this rehab period A-Rod will probably have a couple weeks of spring training in the minor leagues before re-joining the New York Yankees. As a renowned wuss, Rodriguez can be expected to come back from this very slowly. The problem is not being fixed, it is being patched. He will still have to play through pain. He could very well make the problem worse. Then he will endure the more serious version of the surgery at the end of the season.

Any fantasy owner with a serious chance at winning this season should avoid playing even 50 percent of A-Rod's usual cost. In re-draft leagues I would not bother selecting A-Rod before the 12th round and he is certain to be taken by a fearless (or stupid) owner before that point. I was leaning toward predicting a bad season for A-Rod because of the pressure on him to perform under the close eye of the media while enduring the boos of fans. He has responded poorly to this in the past and it will be increased by a factor of at least ten this season. Add "playing through pain" to the list of obstacles placed in the path of A-Rod having a strong season. This is the recipe for disaster. Even those owners who are choosing to re-build this season should be wary of bidding on A-Rod as next season will also begin slowly as he'll still be rehabing from surgery. If it is enough to keep a gamers like Chase Utley, and Mike Lowell from making opening day, surely Alex Rodriguez can't be expected to do any better.

Auction Keeper League Strategy

I have received this question so often that I feel it is time to write a post about it:

What is the best strategy to follow in Auction Keeper Leagues if...

The line above is usually followed by phrases such as "if my keepers really suck" or "I only have a few keepers but they are really good" and even "if all the good players are kept."

It is impossible to answer those questions well without a ton of information about the league, the owners, the rules, and rosters. I thought it might prove useful to some to share my own approach. By necessity (and enjoyment factors) I vary the plan a bit in every league. I think it is really boring to have multiple teams with duplicate rosters. I will not present this as a infallible plan. But this should give some of you a way to go and others some ideas to implement with your own strategies.

My Philosophy
KRS-ONE isn't the only one who thinks very deeply. After years of flipping and flopping I finally decided a few years ago that rebuilding in fantasy baseball is for losers. We are not running the Pittsburgh Pirates and unless you're in a very unique league there is no team with a New York Yankees advantage. Go for it. Every season. Rather than try to win every other year (I've seen some owners re-build for multiple years --sick) I try to finish first every year. If I fail to win a championship and finish second and third instead of rebuilding for the following year so be it. This doesn't mean I won't make a trade or pick up a player with the future in mind. You can very successfully do both.

Which Players to Keep
First and foremost, if you want to win do not keep players (aside from minor leaguers of course) based on what they might do in two or three years. Every player you protect should be a contributor to your success right now. While it is important to take a few chances on draft day, your protected list should be as full of as many certainties as possible. If you have young players with future value who you cannot stash in reserve or on a farm roster you must trade them for some present day value or future value that you can stash. If you are as obsessed with young players as I am this can be difficult but you get used to it when it results in winning more often.

The most valuable keepers are usually pitchers. It is much easier to replace the under priced hitter you put back into the available player pool than the under priced starter or closer. I like to keep as many under priced pitchers as possible so I can concentrate on hitters come draft day. I often attempt to trade my borderline hitting keepers for cheap pitching. Some years it works and others it does not. This year in my AL-only I tried to trade for a cheap Kevin Slowey and Phil Hughes.

Set Your Goals High
I often hear owners mention they set goals of finishing third in every category. That's sweet. I set a goal of finishing first in every category. Do I make it? Not usually but I've been damned close. Setting my goals high forces me to draft players with upside potential. This has the extra added benefit of building up my keeper list. It also gives me a little more room to screw up and still finish third in every category.

Building a Strong Roster
I use what is often referred to as a Stars & Scrubs strategy. However, the way I do it it is more of a Stars & Future Stars strategy. I plot out my budget well ahead of time and experiment by plugging various names into the different slots. If I have a very strong keeper list I'll take fewer risks but reach for my biggest upside sleepers. When I have a weaker roster I draft more sleepers but try to limit the downside. John Smoltz has a lot of upside if healthy but has very little downside. Russell Branyan has huge upside but also a pretty miserable downside. I usually split my budgets into 70 percent hitting and 30 percent for pitching. I split my roster into the following fairly obvious groups:

Catchers - I allocate enough here to buy one of the better catchers available. My second catcher will be a younger catcher with offensive potential. A lot of teams are willing to live with whatever two bucks will get them at the catcher position. I would prefer my one dollar guys to be corners and outfielders.

Corner Infielders - I like to have at least one stud at this position, if that stud is a inexpensive keeper all the better. In my optimum situation I end up with a stud, a steady vet and a young player with upside. Corners are usually among the most productive players on your team. This is not the place to be stingy.

Middle Infielders - I like to have a strong middle infield but if money is tight this is the spot I cut dollars from. I always seem to find cheap and productive middle infielders in the end game. I'm okay with drafting the good side of platoons and talented youngsters with bench roles here. Speed is especially easy to draft in the middle infield.

Outfielders - I do not feel comfortable unless I have two stud outfielders. When I have those two studs I grow very willing to take chances in my outfield. The outfield is a good place to do some gambling with your roster because mistakes are fairly easy to overcome. You can also find the widest variety of stats in the outfield.

Utility - When my utility does not need to be a qualifying Designated Hitter (as in a lot of AL-only leagues) I try to match positions with the biggest gamble I'm taking with the rest of my roster. This allows me to more easily replace that player if the gamble fails. I very rarely allocate more than a few dollars to this spot on my roster.

Starting Pitchers - I know a lot of fantasy baseball veterans who refuse to draft more than five starting pitchers. This is usually done as precaution against adding too many bad innings (which is difficult to overcome). I refuse to limit myself to a certain number of starters. I like to have at least five and actually prefer to have seven. This helps me be more competitive in the wins category. To pull this off you have to be careful not to bid on interchangeable fifth starters that appear at the end of a lot of major league rotations.

I usually look for pitchers with the following criterion (but there are always exceptions):

• At least half a season of major league experience in the books, but the more the better.
• A career K9 of 7.00 or higher
• A career Ground Ball rate of at least 40 percent
• Pitching in front of a strong defensive team (which does not require the team to actually be good)
  
• A good minor league resume (majors is obviously better but also more expensive)
  

Relief Pitchers - Nine times out of ten I refuse to pay for saves. I usually manage to roster a few future closers while they are still cheap. In keeper leagues you have the advantage of looking beyond just the present season. I drafted Heath Bell two years ago and he's been worth rostering both seasons and now he is a closer. In the last two years in addition to Bell I've drafted Chris Perez, Joey Devine, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Qualls, Frank Francisco, Matt Lindstrom, and Grant Balfour. More often than not for less than five dollars each. In almost every case they have been worth owning well before they became closers.
Drafting future closers has usually been about drafting relievers with dominating stuff in bullpens with shakey, old, or injury-prone closers.

How to Stretch Your Budget Further
Never spend your available cash on mediocrities.. This is the kiss of death to fantasy teams. I buy the best talents available within my budgetary limits. I always place talent above roles. I would prefer to spend one dollar on talented Orioles starter David Pauley fighting for a job than on Jarrod Washburn who has a spot gift wrapped for him.

For every full price David Wright or CC Sabathia on my roster I plan to have a one dollar player. This will make it seem as if you have a lot more money to spend on the middle of your roster. If you find more bargains use any extra money on the middle of your roster rather than eliminating the one dollar spots.

Not every player needs to be an immediate everyday hitter like left fielder Ryan Braun is for the Milwaukee Brewers. For example, a player such as shortstop Emmanuel Burriss may not have a full-time role for the San Francisco Giants as the 2009 season begins but he is still likely to make a significant contribution to the fantasy teams that draft him. If he receives just 250 at bats he could steal 25 bases. At the right price a part-time player who contributes is worth rostering.

If you pay full price for a star batter be certain that said player will contribute in every statistical category. If you pay $35 dollars for a player you don't want him hurting your batting average. This is not to say that every player must contribute to every category. I'll roster a .250 hitter or two I just demand a discount.

Some Quick Auction Tips
The following bullet points are taken from my RotoExperts article "Dominating the Auction Draft" which is available for free as part of the RotoExperts Draft Kit if you register (again for free) as a member of the site. The article is a very good compliment to this one.

• Vary your bidding style between frequent small increments and sudden big jumps. This will keep your rivals off balance and unable to anticipate when you are truly interested in a player.
  
• Bid on as many players as possible. This will make it difficult for your rivals to discern your ultimate strategy.
  
• You will hear that you should never nominate players you really want and you will hear that you should never nominate players that you do not want. Ignore these people and mix it up.
  
• Hold off nominating your sleepers until most of the money is off the board. But do it before you run out of money yourself.
  
• Follow your instincts. There is nothing worse than having regrets after a draft.
  
• Draft players with upside potential, these are the players that have huge breakouts.
  
• It is okay to pay for saves, just do not overpay.
  
• Reserve some money and roster spots for the end game, there are always bargains at the end of an auction.
  
• Watch the other owners as much as possible, everyone has a tell.
  
• You are not running the Pittsburgh Pirates, there is no need to waste a whole season in re-building mode – just go for it.
  
• Do not overpay for rookies, especially pitchers, no matter how highly touted.
  
• However, do not avoid rookies altogether, a large percentage of breakout seasons come from rookies.
  
• With everyday players, it can be beneficial to draft a mediocre player if he has guaranteed playing time. The more at-bats you can roster the better you will do in Runs and RBI.
  
• Avoid starting pitchers without quality skills. They collect too many innings and drag down your ERA and WHIP.
  
• The point of all this is to have fun, so do it.

By TwitterButtons.com

Alex Rodriguez to Have Hip Surgery

Alex Rodriguez will miss at least the first month of the season due to hip surgery to remove a cyst that may or may not have been caused by steroid use. His price is crashing through the floor and he can not be a first round pick.




Diamond Draft - The Official Draft Software of Advanced Fantasy Baseball

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

The 2009 All Sleeper Teams

Every year I provide my readers (more than ever this season) with three teams composed entirely of sleepers. Each team uses a different criteria to determine who is a sleeper. These teams all have players that will benefit you in many different types of leagues. This is followed by very brief comments on what makes them sleepers.

***

The Day Dreamers (not sleeping but lacking the proper respect) - This squad is composed of lite sleepers that are more likely to be bargains in shallower mixed leagues. In deeper leagues you might laugh at the notion of these players being sleepers.
C Jarrod Saltalamaccia, Texas Rangers - Increased playing time
C Jeff Clement, Seattle Mariners - Increased playing time, gaining position flexibility (C, 1B, DH)
1B Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels - Full time job, blistering hot in fall/winter leagues
3B Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals - Improving skills, better lineup, post-hype
CR Chris Davis, Texas Rangers - Amazing 2008 preview, off the chart projections

2B Mark Ellis, Oakland Athletics - Better BABIP luck, better lineup
SS Khalil Greene, St. Louis Cardinals - Out of Petco Field Hell, better lineup
MI Bobby Crosby, Oakland Athletics - Healthy, new position flexibility, new batting coach
OF Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers - Improving skills, new opportunity, great lineup OF Ryan Spilborghs, Colorado Rockies - Increased playing time, improving skills
OF Dan Murphy, New York Mets - Increased playing time
OF Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians - Increased playing time, improving skills
OF Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves - Can't get worse, improved focus, he'll be a lot cheaper

UTL Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox - Could still start but will play often either way, healthy

SP Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees - Only health keeps him out of top ten starters SP Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins - True Ace stuff, underrated team, finally healthy
SP Manny Parra, Milwaukee Brewers - Groundball Pitcher with strikeouts = Awesome
SP Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros - Improving skills, good stuff
SP Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins - improving skills, improved defense
MR Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays - Dominating stuff, no clear closer
MR Octavio Dotel, Chicago White Sox - Closer stuff behind the declining Bobby Jenks
MR Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals - Experienced closer behind youthful save candidates

CL Frank Francisco, Texas Rangers - Healthy, the forgotten closer, not throwing chairs

***

The Cat-Nappers (A loud noise would wake them in a hurry) - This group consists of players that are definitely underrated, unhyped, or unexperienced. These are the players you'll want in deeper leagues.
C John Baker, Florida Marlins - Late bloomer, OBP skills, underrated team
C Brayan Pena, Kansas City Royals - The best skills at his position, underrated team
1B Chris Duncan, St. Louis Cardinals - Healthy, Mad Power, The Genius
3B Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds - Better luck, underrated power
CR Russell Branyan, Seattle Mariners - Huge opportunity, 40 homer upside
2B Emmanuel Burriss, San Francisco Giants - batting average and steals what more do you need? SS Cesar Izturis, Baltimore Orioles - 30 steals possible if you can live with .260 average
MI Eugenio Velez, San Francisco Giants - a little old for his levels but still has underrated skills, 40 steal upside, should get steals even from the bench
OF Brett Gardner, New York Yankees - Could be the next Kenny Lofton, the best CF option
OF Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies - Nice tools, great park, opportunity
OF Josh Anderson, Atlanta Braves - does whatever Bourne, Tavares, and Pierre can do, only better
OF Jerry Owens, Chicago White Sox - This is not the year to pay for steals, 40 steal upside
OF Josh Phelps, San Francisco Giants - should be 1B/OF reserve, nice power upside

UTL Jonny Gomes, Cincinnati Reds - Could be the next David Ortiz, great power, needs an opportunity

SP Andrew Miller, Florida Marlins - Was better than he looked last season
SP David Huff, Cleveland Indians - Strikeouts and groundballs, gotta love it
SP Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays - Top prospect with a rotation shot
SP Anthony Reyes, Cleveland Indians - If healthy he can be a frontline starter
SP Andy Sonnanstine, Tampa Bay Rays - If the K9 comes up a smidge he could win big

MR Jeremy Affeldt, San Francisco Giants - improving skills, could see saves
MR Garrett Mock, Washington Nationals - closer stuff behind shaky Hanrahan
MR Jose Mijares, Minnesota Twins - Closer stuff, improving role

CL J.J. Putz, New York Mets - The obvious choice if the rumors about K-Rod being injured are true

***

Nearly Comatose (No Explanation Necessary) - This team is loaded with long shots and comebacks. These are the high risk, high reward players. You don't want to own more than one or two of these players because the potential for failure is very high.

C Michael Barrett, Toronto Blue Jays - If healthy he could be a top ten catcher
C Nick Hundley, San Diego Padres - Big time power but he couldn't hit for average in the minors

1B Nick Johnson, Washington Nationals - If healthy he hits for average and power
3B Eric Chavez, Oakland Athletics - He appears to be healthy, 2002: .275, 34 Homeruns
CR Brett Wallace, St. Louis Cardinals - He's young but can seriously hit, next Pujols

2B Anderson Hernandez, Washington Nationals - failed prospect getting an opportunity
SS Jerry Hairston, Cincinnati Reds - Has a shot at the fulltime shortstop job
MI Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City Royals - Former prospect could be starting at second

OF Endy Chavez, Seattle Mariners - Defense could win him 400 at-bats
OF Andruw Jones, Texas Rangers - Only has to beat out Marlon Byrd
OF John Mayberry Jr., Philadelphia Phillies - Power hitter could sneak his way into a platoon
OF Jody Gerut, San Diego Padres - Has a shot to be the starting center fielder
OF Barry Bonds, Free Agent - He wants to come back

UTL Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians - he needs to start hot or he'll be replaced by Matt LaPorta

SP Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants - After the all-star break he resembled the old Zito
SP John Smoltz, Boston Red Sox - He should be back in May. Iron Will and Huge Heart
SP Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals - So far so good, Ace or closer if healthy
SP Mark Prior, San Diego Padres - You never know...
SP Curt Schilling, Free Agent - Would return to a contender




Diamond Draft - The Official Draft Software of Advanced Fantasy Baseball

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

The Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League

Last night we had the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League draft on Mock Draft Central. A great time was had by all. This league has a few not exactly unique but uncommon challenges. It a mixed 5x5 Head-to-Head league. It uses On-base Percentage rather than Batting Average. The rules also state that every team has to accumulate 40 innings a week unless at least eight of the nine pitching spots are filled by starters. These rules aren't a huge handicap but they forced me to approach things a little differently than I might otherwise.

My biggest weakness in Fantasy Baseball is probably Head-to-Head Leagues. I have been in a few but have only one Head-to-Head Championship on my record. I've attributed this to balanced lineups that don't dominate any particular categories. Thus in this draft I decided to go for high OBP power hitters, and high strikeout starters and essentially dump steals and saves. I didn't do exactly as planned but I'm okay with the results.

The Results:

Player	Team	Acquired
1B	Mark Teixeira	NYY	R1 P10
1B	Lance Berkman	HOU	R2 P3
1B	Kevin Youkilis	BOS	R4 P3
1B	Jason Giambi	OAK	R20 P3
2B	Brian Roberts	BAL	R3 P10
2B	Jose Lopez	SEA	R11 P10
2B	Mark DeRosa	CLE	R15 P10
3B	Edwin Encarnacion	CIN	R12 P3
SS	Derek Jeter	NYY	R5 P10
C	Jorge Posada	NYY	R16 P3
C	John Baker	FLA	R26 P3
OF	Magglio Ordonez	DET	R6 P3
OF	Johnny Damon	NYY	R7 P10
OF	Andre Ethier	LA	R10 P3
OF	Brett Gardner	NYY	R22 P3
OF	Juan Pierre	LA	R27 P10
DH	Kendry Morales	ANA	R24 P3
SP	Felix Hernandez	SEA	R8 P3
SP	Jon Lester	BOS	R9 P10
SP	Josh Johnson	FLA	R13 P10
SP	Clayton Kershaw	LA	R17 P10
SP	Justin Duchscherer	OAK	R18 P3
SP	Chris Carpenter	STL	R19 P10
SP	David Huff	CLE	R23 P10
SP	Anibal Sanchez	FLA	R25 P10
RP	Joey Devine	OAK	R14 P3
RP	Kevin Gregg	CHC	R21 P10

Diamond Draft - The Official Draft Software of Advanced Fantasy Baseball

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

Computer Problems and Expert Draft

I have now been through six computers in less than a year. Two in just the last week. Fortunately, I think I'm past it. I have a draft at 9pm for the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League. I'll be writing about that tonight. Wednesday morning should see the annual All-Sleeper Teams. See ya real soon.

From Todd Farino:

Hey everyone. Check out our expert draft coverage tonight at 9:00pm EST on Blog Talk Radio. Ryan, RC, and I will discuss our draft and have some fun while making our picks. The site is to listen www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru and follow the draft at www.mockdraftcentral.com.

Diamond Draft - The Official Draft Software of Advanced Fantasy Baseball

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams