The Secrets of Sustained Success

Ron Shandler recently wrote a couple of articles devoted to uncovering the formula for consistent success in Fantasy Baseball. He broke fantasy success down to six variables and polled fans and his fellow experts to weigh the importance of each. I won't reveal all of Ron's conclusions. The articles were part of a free preview (I'm not certain if that is still available or not but here are the links):

The Formula for Consistent Success - Part One

The Formula for Consistent Success - Part Two

I find this to be an interesting topic for discussion. In leagues of relative equals (in baseball knowledge and fantasy tactics) any owner can win in a given season. The true challenge is winning year after year after year. This is about finding the key to that sustained success.

1. Better player projections: I do not believe that the difference between occasional success and consistent success has much, if anything, to do with the difference between most sets of projections. I am certain there are some horrible projections available. However, smart owners are probably choosing from the more established options. If you are using projections from Baseball HQ, RotoWorld, RotoWire, Mastersball, Yahoo, ESPN, The Sporting News, Fantasy Pros 911 or any of a dozen others, you are doing just fine.

The key here is to use a set of projections that you can familiarize yourself with well before your draft or auction. You should have at least a general idea of how the projections were generated. It could be a complex formula that incorporates dozens of performance indicators and multiple computer generated algorithms or it could be as simple as weighted three-year averages. As long as you know and understand the process enough to vary from it when it seems logical.

2. Better grasp of contextual elements that affected players: This is the variable that is most important to me. This is how you manage to draft Carlos Silva, Ben Zobrist, Ryan Ludwick, and so forth from year to year. This is also how you know that the Braves will go with Jason Heyward to start the season and that Mike Stanton will have to wait, regardless of their spring performances. This is how you understand that Brandon Wood will get an extended opportunity and Chris Davis will not.

Owners need to know managers and general managers and their tendencies. Every owner who hopes to have consistent success should understand how each team utilizes players on the major league roster and in the minors. You should know which players are likely to be traded and which are virtually untouchable and why. The best owners instinctively know what teams are planning to do in any given situation based on their history and trends.

3. Better sense of value: It is essential that owners know how much a player is worth in their individual league. But it goes beyond knowing that Albert Pujols is typically worth $45. You need to know the value your league places on him as well. If your league refuses to pay more than $40 for any player being willing to say $41 could be a monstrous advantage to you.

Every league has subtle differences in the players they value. My local leagues, the MPRL (American League Only) and CGRL (National League Only) tend to over value the top prospects and young players. They also pay top dollar for the studs, leaving the boring veterans in the middle as excellent bargains. If this is news to you go back to your leagues draft or auction and examine the record for trends you may be able to exploit next season.

4. Better in-draft strategy and tactics: Owners should go into every draft or auction with a plan. While it is not always a good idea to target certain players, many of the best owners I have known plan to acquire players within small groups of the similarly skilled. They also have back-up plans. They exactly what they will do if plan A is not working out. It may not surprise you that this is the area that Shandler's group of experts collectively assigned the most importance.

This is an area I need to strengthen in my own game. I am good at establishing a plan of action. I always have a well-worked plan. My weakness has always been adjusting when things do not go as planned. When plan-A fails I start to take too many chances. I tend to embrace so much risk that winning becomes almost impossible unless I am incredibly lucky. Fortunately, this doesn't happen to me often but it did happen to me in several drafts this season. Owners should always be prepared when things go awry. It happens to everyone.

5. Better in-season roster management: This encompasses FAAB bidding, trades, pick-ups, use of your reserve roster, activating minor leaguers, and replacing disabled players. If your league allows free pick-ups and the constant churning of your roster - this can become the most crucial element in winning. In contrast, if your league allows very little in the way of roster changes this is almost irrelevant and your draft becomes that much more important.

One of the best ways to keep up with your leagues is to set aside a regular block of time everyday to review your leagues. This can be quite quick if you are doing it everyday. I have the bad habit of skipping the review of teams I am less concerned about (no money involved usually). It typically starts with a time cruch and I put things off and a day becomes a week, becomes a month, and so on. I plan on doing better with this in the future by not being in quite so many leagues.

6. Better luck: Any idiot can get lucky and win a fantasy league. Luck plays a huge part in every league. Most of the time injuries, suspensions, slow starts, and off years are just bad luck. Or you might get lucky by picking up Livan Hernandez to ride his hot streak and finding that it lasts the entire season. but luck is not entirely random, you can create your own good or bad luck.

Drafting Mark Teixeira knowing he starts slow is one thing, drafting him, Grady Sizemore coming off an injury, Milton Bradley, Chris Davis, Brandon Wood and Ken Griffey Jr. onto the same team was just asking for trouble. You can often avoid massive amounts of bad luck by using your head in most cases. Know the injury history of your players and don't place too much risk onto one roster.

Good owners will also give themselves the chance to get lucky. Playing it safe will not usually result in a fantasy championship but it requires a smart balance. If you realized that Chris Davis would get the hook if he started slow, using a reserve pick on Justin Smoak is a great risk.

What do think is most important to consistent success?

Felix Doubront, the Next Red Sox Ace?

Felix Doubront has come on strong his last two seasons in the Red Sox organization. Doubront was signed out of Venezuela in 2004. He progressed slowly but steadily through the system putting up mostly good but not great numbers. The last two seasons things have started to click for him and he has emerged as a top prospect.

Doubront is making his major league debut today primarily due to the DL-stints of Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka. However, he also deserved the promotion because of his very good numbers at triple-A this season. He has a 2.11 ERA in 12 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this season, with 54 strikeouts, 22 walks and no homers allowed in 59 2/3 innings. He gets to face Manny Ramirez in his return to Fenway Park.

From Red Sox Prospects:

Doubront utilizes a 91-94 mph fastball, a very good 79-81 mph changeup with screwball action, and a developing mid-70s curveball. Flawless and fluid downward pitching motion with excellent control. Deceptive delivery, hitters don't pick up the ball until late, causing his fastball to look a little faster. Used to struggle against left-handed batters, but seemed to fix this issue in 2009. He has a reserved and modest demeanor, but is aggressive and poised on the mound. Sometimes has the tendency to leave the ball up in the zone too much, giving up too many home runs. Athletic and agile in the field. Doubront struggled in 2007 due to numerous injuries, including recovery from a hernia operation.

Doubront should be worth an add in AL-only leagues. He isn't likely to be great in mixed leagues just yet. He will probably go back to the minors when Dice-K comes off the disabled list.

Wrist Injury Downs Tulowitzki

The Colorado Rockies placed shortstop Troy Tulowitzki on the 15-day disabled list with a broken left wrist. They say Tulo will miss six to eight weeks with the injury. Experienced fantasy owners know that wrist injuries can linger and sap a players power months after they've returned to the playing field. But every player is different and Tulo owners should hope for the best as they prepare for the worst.

The Rockies have replaced Tulowitzki on the active roster with prospect Chris Nelson. Nelson has played well at Colorado Springs batting .311 with five home runs and 20 RBIs but Clint Barmes is expected to get most of the starts at shortstop with Melvin Mora and Jonathan Herrera competing with Nelson for playing time at second base. I suggest picking up Nelson in NL-only leagues. He many not receive many at-bats but he has the highest ceiling of the trio.

Nailing Down the Arizona Closer Situation

After waiting entirely too long, Arizona Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch decided to remove Chad Qualls from the closer role. For the moment we are expected to believe that Aaron Heilman is the new closer. However, the D'Backs have been hesitant to place Heilman in that role. Their reasoning is not clear. Most of the bullpen has struggled and it is possible they find him more valuable in a set-up role.

Hinch added to the confusion Wednesday night by bringing Heilman into the game in the eighth inning when his team trailed 6-4. While it is true that Heilman needed the work, the result of the outing casts doubt on Heilman's hold on the job. He allowed four baserunners and two runs to score in one inning of work.

I believe that Sam Demel will be closing in Arizona in the second half. I was going to write more about Sam Demel. The D'backs just acquired him in the Connor Jackson trade. But Jason Grey has already done the job many times better than I ever could so I'll just link and sample him here.

A third-round pick in the 2007 draft (one pick after the Chicago White Sox drafted current Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher John Ely), Demel both started and closed in college at TCU, but the 6-foot right-hander has been viewed strictly as a reliever in the pros. The A's have drafted a number of hard-throwing relief arms in recent years (Demel, Andrew Bailey, Jeff Gray, Jared Lansford, Andrew Carignan) in the hopes that some of them pick up the necessary secondary pitches and/or command to stick in the majors...

...In terms of his fantasy value, the main thing to talk about with Demel in the short term is opportunity, as the D-backs are looking for someone, anyone, to step up in the later innings. Aaron Heilman is getting a chance to run with the ball for the moment in the ninth, almost by default. But Heilman has had far more success against left-handed hitters this year thanks to his changeup; his ability to get tough righties out in the ninth is still in question. The expectation is that Demel could quickly find his way to some high-pressure situations if he adapts well to the major leagues.

Read the rest of the article for a great write-up of his skills and ability as a pitcher. As Jason points out the key is that Demel has a huge opportunity to work his way into the role quickly. The rest of the Arizona bullpen has been horrible. There is no one (with the exception of Heilman and a possible return to Qualls at some point) in the way of Demel becoming the closer. He should be picked up by any owner in any type of league where saves are at a premium.

Jose Tabata and Brad Lincoln Bolster the Bucs

Today the Pittsburgh Pirates may be taking a significant step into their future. Outfield prospect Jose Tabata and long-time pitching prospect Brad Lincoln will make their 2010 Major League debuts today against the Washington Nationals. Pirates fans deserve some good news after suffering through the much-hyped decimation of their lineup by Stephen Strasburg during his Major League debut last night.

Jose Tabata became famous as a New York Yankees prospect. It is quite possible that no one would recognize his name without that claim to fame. He was sent to Pittsburgh in exchange for Xavier Nady in 2008. Though he has not developed the power the Yankees expected he has strengthened other areas of his game. In 217 triple-A at-bats Tabata has a line of .323/.384/.442 with three homeruns. Tabata hits the ball on the ground more than 60 percent of his balls in play. That should explain his lack of power numbers. You cannot hit the ball out of the park if it rolls through the infield. He has 25 stolen bases this season and only 6cs so speed has become his game as far as fantasy owners are concerned. He still owns the power potential but it will take some serious re-working of his swing mechanics to bring it out. I expect the Pirates are not very interested in that kind of project. I expect Tabata will soon be owned in most leagues for his stolen base potential.

Brad Lincoln has not been the same pitcher since undergoing Tommy John Surgery in 2007. However, he has returned as a different but still effective pitcher. He has decent strikeout numbers in the minors (7.17 K9) but is far from elite. He is not a groundball pitcher (42.6 percent) but has done a decent job keeping the ball in the park. Lincoln was once considered a potential ace. He has not regained that sort of projection but it remains a possibility. I would suggest fantasy owners pick him up only if they are desperate for a good starter or have the room to stash him if he struggles.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are getting better by small degrees. They still have a long way to go.

A Big Day For Baseball's Future - Strasburg and Stanton Debut

Today is a big day for baseball. Stephen Strasburg makes his debut with the Washington Nationals against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The game will be shown on the MLB Network tonight and I'm betting every baseball fan in the country will be tuning in. However, there is more making this an exciting day for baseball. Michael Stanton will be making his major league debut with the Florida Marlins. The only fans not watching Strasburg tonight will be Stanton's fantasy owners who are tuning into Stanton's debut against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Stephen Strasburg

Stephen Strasburg has thrown 57.3 innings with a 2.04 FIP in the minors. He is not just a strikeout pitcher. In addition to his 10.20 K9 (combined Double-A and Triple-A) he also owns a 64.9 groundball percentage. He's probably been ready to pitch in the majors for more than a year. But without his stint in the minors his first MLB start would not have nearly the impact on baseball and Washington Nationals that it will tonight. I expect him to pitch well. He won't necessarily be Tim Lincecum right off the bat. He will be facing the very best hitters in the world now. Even the Pirates are better than anything he saw in the minors or in college.

Michael Stanton

In 189 at-bats in Double-A, Stanton has hit .312/.443/.730 with a .328 BABIP. He has nice batted ball splits, more than 50 percent of his batted balls are fly balls. He kills lefties but does not have handedness issues. He has hit much better at home than on the road. This has led some to believe he is the product of a nice home environment but I don't buy that and neither do the Marlins. He could probably do with a little time at triple -A (and hell, he may still get it) but I think he will hit for a decent batting average and tons of power. He is still available in a lot of leagues. You should pick him up right now, you may not have the chance again.

2010 MLB Draft

The draft continues today. You can check it out in progress at MLB.com/live. Yesterday had a few surprises including Bryce Harper being announced as an outfielder rather than a catcher. The Chicago Cubs went their own way by drafting Hayden Simpson. Zigging when they Zag has been the habit of Scouting Director Tim Wilken.

Tim described the kid physically as a cross between Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum while acknowledging he has a long way to go to reach that status. Like Lincecum, Simpson said on a conference call tonight that he uses his whole body to pitch, easing stress on the arm.

The 21-year-old Simpson was 13-1 this year with a 1.81 ERA in Division II ball. Simpson said his best pitch is his slider and that he also possesses a four-seam fastball, a circle change and a 12-to-6 curveball.

The New York Yankees stunned many by drafting high school shortstop/RHP Cito Culver with the 32nd pick of the draft. He is an okay prospect. He was just picked about 100 names earlier than anyone expected.

On the mound, he was 90-91, which really isn’t bad for a guy with that kind of frame. What you didn’t see with Culver was a lot of physical projection for height, which would make his future as a right-handed pitcher pretty nominal. On one play, a kid fouled a pitch back behind the screen. Culver came off the mound, full speed, and caught up to his catcher deep in foul territory. It was a throwaway play to some scouts, but it showed me reflexes, his first step and his acceleration. The guy is an athlete.

One of my favorite picks of the draft went to the Atlanta Braves. Scouting Director Tony DeMacio selected Matt Lipka, a high school shortstop from Texas. The Braves project him as their future leadoff hitter.

When DeMacio went to suburban Dallas' McKinney High School last month, he was thoroughly impressed with the cerebral approach taken by an athletic shortstop whose will to win complimented the speed that had made him such a threat as a leadoff hitter and two-time Class 4-A All-State wide receiver in the football hotbed of Texas. Thus when it came time for the Braves to make their first selection, the 35th overall, in this year's First Year Player Draft on Monday night, DeMacio confidently selected Matt Lipka, the 18-year-old shortstop who had developed into one of the two multi-sport superstars that made McKinney High a popular destination this past year for college-football recruiters and baseball scouts. "He's a kid that's going to show up for you every day," DeMacio said. "He's going to make everybody else better around him. He's a winning-type guy. He's just a great, great young man and we're just very pleased to have him."

Check out Position Reviews at the Football Site

Over at Advanced Fantasy Football (its still pretty new, so be nice) I have just begun running a series of NFL Position Reviews written by Bob Lung of BigGuyFantasySports.com. Bob uses Quality Game Scores to measure player consistency. If you've ever led your Fantasy Football League in overall points and failed to make the playoffs, you will want to read this. Here's a small sample:

Read the Rest at Advanced Fantasy Football

So, let us start with the first tier of wide receivers ranked by their Quality Game Success Rate.

TIER ONE

Player Name	Total Points	Pts Rank	Total QG	Total GP	QG Success Rate
Larry Fitzgerald	187.20	5	12	16	75%
DeSean Jackson	189.40	4	11	15	73%
Wes Welker	162.40	12	10	14	71%
Miles Austin	197.80	3	11	16	69%

The top tier of consistent wide receivers for 2009 consists of wide receivers that had a 69% - 75 percent QGSR (Quality Game Success Rate). Only four receivers met our criteria during the 2009 season. That may seem like a very small group. However, in 2008 the top tier of wide receivers with a 69 percent or higher QGSR included six players.

Many fantasy players new to Quality Game Scores (i.e., consistency factor) expect the most consistent wide receivers to also lead the position in overall fantasy points. As you can see, they are not. Wes Welker ranked 12th overall, while the other three receivers ranked third, fourth and fifth. The top two overall receivers did not earn a Quality Game Score more than 70 percent of the time. The recent trend of teams spreading the ball around to multiple receivers (an effort to stop teams from double-teaming the studs) appears to be working for the real teams, but not the fantasy teams.

Read the Rest at Advanced Fantasy Football

Watch the MLB Draft While You Work!

You can watch all four days of MLB's 2010 Amateur Draft this week. It starts today at Noon (WHOOPS! Day One starts at 7pm but the rest of the week coverage starts at Noon) and will be covered by the MLB Network (just the first round) and online at MLB.com/live (the entire draft). For fantasy owners this may be an opportunity to gain an advantage over your league-mates who do not watch. Some of the names you hear over the next four days will not be heard again for a couple of years. Knowing them ahead of time will allow you to beat the hype.

MLB.com has video and small write-ups on tons of the potential draft picks. I think I'm going to have just as much fun watching the MLB draft as I do watching the NFL Draft. Maybe more, considering how much I love baseball and following prospects.

***

So, the reason I've gone through a slow period is I lost another job. It sapped my motivation just as the season was starting. Thankfully, I seem to be moving past my Blue Period. I have a ton of ideas that with any luck will see the light of day in the next few weeks. As George Constanza might say, "I'm back, Baby!"

Selig Speaks on Instant Re-Play

Obviously Armando Galarraga pitched a perfect game on Wednesday night but he will never get credit for it. The man has shown tremendous class in accepting the outcome without anger or bitterness towards umpire Jim Joyce. Galarraga is a true sportsman.


Baseball Commissioner Allan H. (Bud) Selig issued the following statement regarding last night's game in Detroit:

"First, on behalf of Major League Baseball, I congratulate Armando Galarraga on a remarkable pitching performance. All of us who love the game appreciate the historic nature of his effort last night.

"The dignity and class of the entire Detroit Tigers organization under such circumstances were truly admirable and embodied good sportsmanship of the highest order. Armando and Detroit manager Jim Leyland are to be commended for their handling of a very difficult situation. I also applaud the courage of umpire Jim Joyce to address this unfortunate situation honestly and directly. Jim's candor illustrates why he has earned the respect of on-field personnel throughout his accomplished career in the Major Leagues since 1989.

"As Jim Joyce said in his postgame comments, there is no dispute that last night's game should have ended differently. While the human element has always been an integral part of baseball, it is vital that mistakes on the field be addressed. Given last night's call and other recent events, I will examine our umpiring system, the expanded use of instant replay and all other related features. Before I announce any decisions, I will consult with all appropriate parties, including our two unions and the Special Committee for On-Field Matters, which consists of field managers, general managers, club owners and presidents."

The Rise of Francisco Cervelli

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Jorge Posada is out for the next few weeks with a hairline fracture in his foot. Posada suffered the injury on Sunday when a foul tip off the bat of Michael Cuddyer struck him on the foot. Top catching prospect Jesus Montero is not quite ready to replace him. The Yankees already have Juan Miranda on the roster and I am positive he will benefit from Posada's absence, but the player that I would grab would be Francisco Cervelli.

Cervelli will not hit for a ton of power or steal any bases. However, he has improving plate discipline, the patience to take walks and low strikeout rates over his career in the majors and minors. He should hit for a strong batting average and by virtue of being in the Yankees lineup will pile up the runs and RBI.

From MLB.com:

Girardi said he foresees Francisco Cervelli continuing to get the majority of at-bats in place of Posada. Cervelli has already made a good impression this season in his 17 starts, batting .375. He hit .298 last season in two starts.

"Jorge has been a leader," Girardi said. "It's something that we dealt with last year. [Kevin] Cash and [Cervelli] came up big and did a good job, and we're going to need someone else to come in and do a good job for us."

Re-Evaluating the Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals have fired manager Trey Hillman. I believe Hillman was managing the way General Manager Dayton Moore wanted him to manage. Moore wanted this team to win this season using veteran talent rather than continue to rebuild with younger players. If the Royals have reached the point of firing the manager, I hope that they have also seen that the present philosophy used to run the team was not working either.

If you want more on why Hillman is gone read Rany on the Royal's Hillman's Last Stand.

The Royals need to utilize the most talented players on their roster and those are also the younger players. Below are a few players you might expect to see increased playing time with new manager Ned Yost (formerly of the Milwaukee Brewers) at the helm, and one player I have a hunch will make an impact before the end of the season.

Mike Aviles, Shortstop - Avilles is playing a lot now but I expect the Yunisky Betancourt appearances to become less and less frequent.

Kila Ka'aihue, First Baseman - Jose Guillen will not be a member of the Royals' next winning team. Ka'aihue could very well be the starting first baseman or Designated Hitter. He can hit and deserves to play every day.

Alex Gordon, Third Baseman - The Royals need Gordon to be all that he can be even if that is not quite what they may have once hoped. He needs another chance and the Royals have little to lose by giving it to him.

Mitch Maier, Outfielder - Maier has the ability to hit 10-12 homers and steal 10-15 bases over a full season in the majors.

Jai Miller, Outfielder - Last year for Triple-A New Orleans he had 16 homers, 52 RBIs and a .289 average.

In Other News

Hechavarria makes pro debut tonight
The much anticipated professional debut for highly touted Cuban shortstop prospect Adeiny Hechavarria will be made on Friday night for Dunedin as the Blue Jays take on the FSL North Division leading Clearwater Threshers at 7 p.m. at Dunedin Stadium. Hechavarria is expected to be with Dunedin for a short while before seeing time at Double-A New Hampshire. His play with the Fishercats will then dictate his path to the Major Leagues either with a September call-up this year or a shot at the shortstop job in 2011.

Casper Wells Recalled By Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers today recalled the contract of outfielder Casper Wells from Triple-A Toledo and optioned the contract of right-handed pitcher Alfredo Figaro to Toledo. Wells will be in uniform tonight for the Tigers against the visiting Red Sox, wearing No. 57. Wells was batting .203 with a team-leading five home runs (tied with Jeff Larish) in 31 games for the Mud Hens. The 25-year-old is a Grand Rapids native. (From Tiger Tales: Billfer explains how he thinks the roster will shake out at Detroit Tigers Weblog and I agree with his thinking. Wells will likely replace Alfredo Figaro on the roster tonight. He then may return to Toledo on Sunday if Armando Galarraga is recalled to start a game. This would prevent Jeremy Bonderman or Rick Porcello from pitching on three days rest.)

Boras: Hank Blalock - promote him or let him become free agent!
Agent Scott Boras indicated Tuesday that Blalock would activate the out clause in his Triple-A contract within the next week, forcing the Rays to either promote him to the big-league team or allow him to become a free agent and sign elsewhere. Blalock, 29, has been sizzling at Durham, with an International League-leading .366 average plus four homers, 23 RBIs (in 24 games) and a .959 OPS, while playing third base regularly.

Cameron expects offseason surgery inevitable
Rehabbing Red Sox outfielder Mike Cameron believes that even if he can make it back on the field through simple rehab of his sports hernia, he'll still undergo postseason surgery to correct the problem. While immediate surgery seems to be ruled out, and Cameron told the Providence Journal he could return to the Sox Monday, the outfielder indicated that he is still in significant pain from the injury, which he believes he initially suffered during spring training.

Fractured tibia lands Young on shelf
Eric Young, Jr. never made it to the dugout. He reported to Coors Field with a lump in the middle of his right tibia and was sent to a local hospital, where x-rays revealed a stress fracture. Young sustained the injury while awkwardly rounding first base in the seventh inning of Thursday's game. He continued to play before complaining of soreness in the ninth inning.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Emerald Guide to Baseball 2010

The Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) is pleased to to offer the Emerald Guide to Baseball 2010 as a free PDF to the world baseball community.

Edited by accomplished and acclaimed baseball historians Gary Gillette and Pete Palmer with Rod Nelson and Ted Turocy and published by SABR, The Emerald Guide distills the 2009 season down to 570 fact-filled pages that contain the pitching, fielding, and hitting statistics for every player active in the major and minor leagues in 2009. A bound version is available via print on demand at Lulu.com for $24.95. Every page in the bound edition is in the PDF.

Go to this link for your FREE PDF.

Today is Free Comic Book Day!

Patience is also a Virtue for Fantasy Owners

Photo from fOTOGLIF

The toughest moves to make in Fantasy Sports is none at all. Everyone preaches patience this time of year but inevitably some owners will overreact to Grady Sizemore hitting .192, Mark Teixeira batting .139, or Aramis Ramirez hitting .159. These stats are horrible and they hurt your fantasy squad but dumping these players just because they're slumping would be a huge mistake.

The second toughest move to make in fantasy is to acquire a player like this while in the midst of such a slump. I do recommend it. Especially if you can trade a hot hitter unlikely to last for one of them. Players like Kelly Johnson ( I love the guy, he was one of my sleepers, but if you believe he's going to hit the 60 homers he's on pace to hit there is a bridge I'd like to sell you), Paul Konerko (on an incredible hot streak but I'll eat my hat if he leads the league in homers), or Austin Jackson (a rookie hitting .330, please).

I'll leave you with The Three Most Important Aspects of a Good Trade:

1. Mission Accomplished - You went into the trade talks with a clear objective, and even if the players changed you still accomplished what you set out to accomplish. (You acquired the steals you needed, Re-Built for next year-- wuss, Or sold high on a player with an inflated value.)
2. Feeling Good - You are happy with the package you received in return. You should love your side of a trade or at the very least be satisfied that the package you received will accomplish your goal of improving your team. (If you feel bad or uneasy about a deal DO NOT MAKE IT!)
3. Integrity Intact - Your deal doesn't need to make your league mates happy but it should past the smell test. You should not have deceived your trade partners in any way. You did everything by the rules of your league. (Sometimes the rules are not so clear, its okay to test those rules as long as you do not break them. Maybe the new rules will be named after you.)
   

RosterSlots.com Caters to Fantasy Baseball Micro-Managers

My friend Peter would like me to share with you the news of a great new fantasy oriented website. RosterSlots.com allows you to build a fantasy team through a virtual slot machine. I'm participating in an expert league with teams built with this system I'm expecting it to be a blast. But I'll let Peter's press release do most of the explaining.

For Immediate Release
RosterSlots.com Caters to Fantasy Baseball Micro-Managers

Northborough, MA - Ever picked up a free agent starting pitcher on a hunch? Ever traded away a star player just to shake things up? Ever just wanted to "do something" during the season, but thought better of it? If so, RosterSlots.com is for you.

In fantasy baseball, there aren't a lot of opportunities for experimentation with your roster. Teams that show patience and discipline are rewarded in the standings, but it's roster transactions (the draft, free agent pickups, and trades) that make fantasy baseball fun. At RosterSlots.com, which begins fantasy baseball play on May 1, transactions are the focus of the game. RosterSlots.com's "slot machine" user interface provides a fun, easy access outlet for serious players and casual players alike - especially those seeking more immediate gratification (or a second chance) as the baseball season plods along.

The slot machine user interface is the key to the transaction-rich game play. Each day, you are provided with a certain number of "spins" to build your team. Each spin of the slot machine's reels returns 3 players. You decide to keep or replace all 3 players together, as a single unit. To replace the players, you either use another spin or trade the players to another team for more spins. Your team consists of 15 players and you score points based on the daily performance of each player.

Your lineup and your spin count reset everyday, but you don't need to play everyday: there are daily, weekly, average-per-play, and season long leaderboards. You can also create your own Personal League of unlimited size by adding teams (friends or foes) from any of the leaderboards - sort of a social network for fantasy baseball.

The slot machine interface works because slot machines are the ultimate in transactional gaming, but this is not a gambling site; in fact, it's free! With traditional slots, you go broke. With RosterSlots.com, you get to evaluate and experiment with more players, invite more of your friends to play, and you always have something to do during the fantasy baseball season. Go to www.rosterslots.com and use your existing Google, Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, or MSN user account to sign up, or create a new account.

About RosterSlots.com

RosterSlots.com is a fantasy sports-based Internet startup founded by Peter Wikander. RosterSlots.com provides a unique fantasy baseball game where you build your team using a virtual slot machine. The idea originated in 2007 as a way to create a more interactive fantasy baseball experience. The site launched for a closed beta for the Arizona Fall League in November of 2009, and then an open beta for the Winter Olympics in February of 2010. The open baseball beta launches on May 1, 2010 and will feature a 12 team Expert League, featuring industry veterans from such web sites as KFFL.com and FantasyPros911.com.

Mr. Wikander works as a technical writer in Chelmsford, MA and resides in Northborough, MA with his wife and daughter. He can be reached at peter@rosterslots.com.

Top Prospect: Adeiny Hechavarria

Photo from fOTOGLIF

The story has been out there for weeks but the Toronto Blue Jays finally made their signing of Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria official. The 21-year old received a four-year, $10-million major-league deal. He expects to be playing in the majors very soon. So soon in fact that he chose the Blue Jays over the Yankees based on the contract extension Derek Jeter is expected to get, while Alex Gonzalez has just a one-year deal.

Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun describes all the events that led to the signing by the Blue Jays. This is a great article that will give you a true sense of the talent level of the player and what the team was thinking when they signed him.

“Scouting is about comparison,” Anthopoulos said. “I wanted Dana there because he’d been scouting director (Washington Nationals) for eight years. Andrew knew shortstops eligible for the draft.”

Beeston’s question was “where would Hechavarria go in the draft — if eligible.”

“Marco felt really strongly about Hechavarria, we thought we could set the competition at our complex,” Anthopoulos said.

Antopoulos’ first impression seeing the 5-foot-11 178-pounder?

“His body, he’s wiry, strong, not an ounce of body fat,” Anthopoulos said. “Watching him walk was impressive. When you look at young shortstops you wonder if they are going to get thicker in the lower half which might cause them to lose a step defensively”

Anthopoulos said the prospect was not as thick as Alfonso Soriano, but had a similar build to Julio Lugo, Edgar Rentaria and B.J. Upton, who is taller.

What the Jays entourage saw was an athletic fielder with quick twitch muscles.

Hechavarria runs a 60-yard dash.

“He was 6.4 or 6-5, but he’d been 6.3 before,” Hernandez said.

The right-handed hitter took batting practice with an inside-out swing, hitting the ball the other way.

Anthopoulos said they did not see him swing and miss a pitch.

Hechavarria faced some of harder throwers from the Jays rookie-class Dominican summer league and free-agent international pitchers.

In a simulated game Hechavarria led off every inning. If he got an extra-base, hit or made an out he returned to first and attempted to steal.

New Episode of "Lineup" Tonight!

Last week, the panel declared Jackie Robinson as New York's All-Time Best Second Baseman. Tonight, Monday, April 12th starting at 10:30PM, the panel will discuss NY's All-Time Best Third Basemen. David Wright? Alex Rodriguez? or Billy Cox? See which other top third basemen are in the running for the lineup! Also, if you missed last night's episode, you can watch video highlights here: http://msg.com/lineup/

Stayed tuned to see if you won a signed baseball from a baseball legend! Each week you play the The Lineup fantasy baseball game is a chance to win more signed memorabilia!

“The Lineup: New York’s All-Time Best Baseball Players,” is a new original series and interactive fantasy game that will determine the best baseball players in the history of New York. Each 30-minute episode of “The Lineup” will present a number of nominees for consideration at each position, from the Yankees, Mets, New York Giants and Brooklyn Dodgers, with one episode dedicated to the best New York manager of all-time. MSG’s Fran Healy hosts a panel, consisting of Hall of Fame Mets catcher Gary Carter, former Yankee bullpen ace Sparky Lyle, New York Magazine contributing editor and baseball aficionado Will Leitch, and executive vice president of the Elias Sports Bureau Steve Hirdt. The panel will whittle down a larger list of players from each position and determine the top five from each spot on the diamond. By the end of each episode, they will crown the top player at each position and name him to the official “Lineup” card.

With an interactive fantasy game launched in conjunction with the on-air program and hosted on http://msg.com/lineup/, viewers can see how they stack up against The Lineup's experts. Fans will try to predict the five players who will be nominated each week and ultimately who will be selected as the starter in the final “Lineup.” Participants will receive points for each correct pick and will be eligible for weekly prizes such as signed memorabilia from baseball greats like Don Mattingly, Joe Torre, Reggie Jackson and Derek Jeter. At the end of the series, the participant with the most points will win a Grand Prize. The site will also feature chats for fans to interact and debate each position, quizzes about the nominated players, photo and video galleries, and player statistics for fans to comb through before making their picks.

The 2010 All Sleeper Teams

It isn't what I wanted to present but waiting any longer would rob it of all value. Have fun, I'll try to keep updating but no promises.

Identifying Fantasy Baseball Sleepers () is what every fantasy site attempts to do better than the others. We all have our fair share of big hits and huge misses. What is important is that you understand that while I list many sleepers (enough to fill five teams) I would never recommend that you draft more than a few with the possible exception of the new Temporary Hibernation Squad, which consists of players that are already (as Larry David might say…) pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good.

The Temporary Hibernation Squad – This team consists of players who are relatively well known. However, I believe that each of these players is likely to take a small and maybe even a giant step forward in terms of production this season or maybe just get a lot more at-bats or innings pitched.

C – Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles – This near rookie has the tools and the discipline to be every bit as good as Joe Mauer…maybe better. Still, it will be a while before he signs for $184 million. He has hitting talent that is rare in a catcher. Do not allow his slow start in 2009 to ruin it for you.

C – Dioner Navarro, Tampa Bay Rays – His strength as a hitter was always in his ability to put the ball in play. He is a great contact hitter who usually displays better than average plate discipline. In 2009 his game was way off. His BABIP was a very low .231 and I believe he panicked a bit. The starting job is still his if he can stay healthy and regain his effectiveness. Kelly Shoppach should take away his toughest at-bats, which has to help.

1B – Casey Kotchman, Seattle Mariners – Okay, he has not lived up to his potential. Kotchman be the regular first baseman for the Mariners. If he hits for his usual good average in the middle of their improved lineup, Kotchman should be very productive for a AL-only fantasy team and better than expected in mixed leagues.

3B – Adrian Beltre, Boston Red Sox – Free from Safeco Field which greatly inhibits the power of right-handed hitters, Beltre should look considerably more like the player who once hit 40 homers in 2010 in Fenway Park. He will not actually hit that many but you will start to think he could. You know who else looks like a 40 homerun guy? David Wright, that’s who. He has his power stroke back this spring and as long as he maintains it he should be a certain first rounder once again. That’s extra value for actually reading these blurbs.

CR – Scott Rolen, Cincinnati Reds – It is not so much that I expect better numbers from Rolen as it is that he is going very cheaply in many leagues. If he is going for single digit prices in your NL-only, you want him on your team – injuries be damned. The power is not what it was but for the money he’s worth it.

2B – Mike Fontenot, Chicago Cubs – Like Scott Rolen it isn’t so much the improvement in numbers as the lowness of his price. In many leagues, he is not even being drafted! Fontenot is a good hitter with 15 homer power in a full season of at-bats. He has the starting second baseman job almost locked up.

SS – Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels – He finally has that starting job all to himself. Defense is his calling card at this point, but people forget that he has the speed to steal 50 bases, which is one of the reasons he will be batting leadoff this season. He is not a great base stealer but if allowed to run he will make fantasy owners very happy.

MI – Marco Scutaro, Boston Red Sox – Sometimes fantasy owners become so jaded against overspending on last year’s flukes that they dismiss guys like Scutaro without looking at the evidence. He has always shown the ability to get n base with moderate power. He just never collected enough at-bats to cause anyone to notice. He is not a one-year wonder.

OF – Jeremy Hermida, Boston Red Sox – The talent is there. The skills displayed in flashes. He begins the season as a fourth outfielder but do not be surprised if he works himself into a much better position. With the fragile J.D. Drew in right field and the aging (and streaky) Mike Cameron in center there should be plenty of available at-bats. He should not cost more than a few bucks (even in Boston) so the risk is very small in deeper leagues.

OF – Juan Pierre, Chicago White Sox – The White Sox love to steal bases and Pierre is the former Greek God of steals (I just made that up). Still as a full time regular, he should steal 40 bases easy and score a ton of runs. The awesome part is the low-low price.

OF – Delmon Young, Minnesota Twins – There is not much evidence this spring that Delmon Young is going to break out this season. Nevertheless, my considerable gut tells me he will. He did hit .302/.322/.502 in the second half and Ron Gardenhire finally seemed to love him late in the 2009 season. So much so, that despite the Jim Thome signing, Young will still play every day. Young is only 24-years old. He will be on many of my teams this season.

OF – Jonny Gomes, Cincinnati Reds – He has not won a starting job yet. However, the Reds seem determined to keep Chris Dickerson as a bench asset only. He proved he could hit right-handers as well as lefties last season and with considerable power. He only needs a break to pull a David Ortiz.

OF – Hunter Pence, Houston Astros – Pence has had small but steady improvements in his walk rates the last three seasons. He cut his strikeout rate in 2009 and improved his plate discipline by swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone. I would love to see him hit more line drives. He is also 27 with experience if you like that old theory. It fits in this case because I think we are about to see a career year from Pence.

UTL/DH – Chris Davis, Texas Rangers – Going into the 2009 season there were few players desired as much. Far too many strikeouts later, 114 strikeouts in 258 at-bats, he was demoted to the minors to get his game straightened out. He came back from the minors a new man and hit .308/.338/.496 to end the season. Now he is destroying all competition this spring. His confidence is contagious, as is confidence in him.

P – Jon Lester, LHP, Boston Red Sox – Minus a slow start in 2009 we would be talking of him as the unquestioned ace of the Red Sox. The improved defense and another year of experience was enough to move him up my rankings. Watch his strikeout rate explode this season, as it did in the second half of 2009. He had an unlucky .323 BABIP in 2009. He is about to have one of THOSE seasons.

P – Chad Billingsley, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers – The first half of the season demonstrated what Billingsley could do. He wore down in the second half. He has not used it as an excuse but he missed part of 2009’s spring training with a leg fracture and that may have impacted his conditioning. Then he pitched through a knee injury in the second half. He has everything you want to see in a pitcher. I see big things for the healthy, better conditioned Chad Billingsley in 2010.

P – Brad Penny, St Louis Cardinals – Working with Pitching Coach Dave Duncan has done a ton of good for pitchers with far less natural talent than Penny. If he stays out of double digits prices, I would draft him.

P – David Price, Tampa Bay Rays – Some pitchers take longer than others to develop. Price had an up and down season. He was mediocre after his call up but as he became more effective, his strikeout rate fell but so did his walks, and his groundball rate increased. He was working at the end of the season on developing his changeup. This work has continued this spring. Price will be better this season but the big breakout will be in 2011.

P – Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox – Beckett will benefit from the improved defense of the Red Sox in 2010. A potential free agent after the season, Beckett should be motivated. We have seen a motivated Beckett do great things before and I expect even more this time.

P – Matt Harrison, Texas Rangers – In July Harrison was diagnosed with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome which ended his season. Since returning during the Arizona Fall league his stuff looks rejuvenated. This spring both his velocity and command have been excellent. The Teixeira trade is looking ridiculously in favor of the Rangers. He is one of my favorite late round dollar picks.
P – Edwin Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks – I do not understand why so many people want to have a problem with Edwin Jackson. Is it because he took so long to emerge? He has now had three decent to very good seasons in a row and is still just 26-years old. Baseball Prospectus has suggested that he was tipping his pitches at the end of the season in 2009 and that makes some sense but it is also possible that the inning load just wore him out. He moves to the easier league and I like him still.

P – Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox – Matt Thornton has been the best pitcher in the White Sox bullpen for a couple of years now. He is the favorite to take the closer role from Bobby Jenks when he no longer proves worthy of it. The White Sox seem eager to see that happen and Bobby Jenks is not doing much to stop it.

The Day Dreamers (they are not sleeping they just lack the proper respect) - This squad is composed of light sleepers that are more likely to be bargains in shallower mixed leagues. In deeper leagues, you might laugh at the notion of these players being sleepers.

C – Jeff Clement, Pittsburgh Pirates – Due to the silly contracts that Bill Bavasi handed out as General Manager of the Seattle Mariners Jeff Clement has yet to receive the shot he deserves at a full time catching job. He will not get that chance with Pittsburgh it seems either. But at the least the Pirates have recognized the potential of his bat and are giving him every opportunity to win the first base job in Spring Training. His batting average has been up and down but he has shown some on-base skills and power consistently over the years. Clement is 26-years old this season. He needs to make the most of this opportunity, because at 27-years old you become useless in Major League Baseball. You knew that, right?

C – Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers – This rookie has power and some skills with the bat. He is certainly a better offensive option than Gerald Laird is. Even if he does not start, he has a decent chance of splitting the job in 2010 before taking over as the starter in 2010.

1B – Casey Kotchman, Seattle Mariners – He came through the minors with high expectations. He was supposed to hit for power and average and become another homegrown star for the Los Angeles Angels. But illness and a variety of injuries and a little bad luck combined to turn him from darling to dud. Now the Seattle Mariners (as they did successfully with Russell Branyan in 2009) are giving him an opportunity to be their regular first baseman. His power is better than it looked with the Braves. He has solid plate discipline and draws more walks than strikeouts. I like him as a corner infielder, especially in deeper leagues. I think a .290, 15-20 homerun season is very possible. In the Mariner lineup he could easily score 80 runs and drive in a similar number.

3B – Mark Teahen, Chicago White Sox – Back at third base where he started the White Sox are hoping that Teahen can recapture what he seemed to lose being shuffled around the infield and outfield with the Royals. He has the talent to be an above average player. He has a brand new opportunity; he only needs to take advantage. The change in ballparks helps too, though his new home tends to help more with home run hitting than batting average.

CR – Brandon Wood, Los Angeles Angels – I get annoyed with the Angels all the time. They have these great prospects and they make them wait much longer than seems necessary to earn a major league job. But maybe I should get over it. When they needed Erick Aybar to play regularly, he was ready. Juan Rivera (I know a Yankees prospect) was also ready when needed. Kendry Morales was ready when needed. They traded for Scott Kazmir who was having the worst season of his career and suddenly he was ready as well. Now, they seem to think Brandon Wood is ready to become their full time third baseman. I agree. He has reduced his massive strikeouts totals to a reasonable level. The power is still there to hit 25-35 homeruns a season on a consistent basis. I love him.

2B – Kelly Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks – He will start at second base and should return to his former level of production, established before a fluke 2009 season. The upside is a .290 average with 15-20 homers and 15-20 stolen bases. That’s gold baby! Gold!

SS – Everth Cabrera, San Diego Padres – You have to love it when a Rule V pick manages to stay with the big league club and becomes a fantasy asset to boot. Cabrera will begin the 2010 season as the starting shortstop for the San Diego Padres. If he can continue to make adjustments and utilize his speed on the bases he has a chance at 50 steals this season.

MI – Blake DeWitt, Los Angeles Dodgers – DeWitt is fighting for a spot in the majors after the Dodgers signed both Jamey Carroll and Ronnie Belliard. DeWitt’s ISO has improved along with his walk rates and contact rates. He has proven to have better than average plate discipline in his brief time in the majors and looks like a player with upside at a potentially weak position. UPSIDE: .290 BA with 20 homers.

OF – Ryan Raburn, Detroit Tigers – I liked him a lot better before Johnny Damon arrived in Detroit. Still, Raburn showed he could hit. With the Tigers lineup featuring a collection of old and brittle stars, there should still be plenty of at-bats. Do not overpay for Raburn, in the end he is just a good utility player. If you have to pay him like a starter, you can use your money better.

OF – Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks – A strong September (after a return to the minors) offers Young some hope of recapturing his potential. Of course, we have seen these flashes before. He is rapidly approaching the hit it or quit it portion of his career. Meaning he needs to get productive or go home. I actually like owning guys in that situation, you can count on their teams casting them off(opening a roster spot for you) if they fail.

OF – Brett Gardner, New York Yankees – The New York newspapers love to doubt Gardner’s ability. He has excellent plate discipline and draws walks at a decent clip. He can bunt for hits almost at will and has the speed and requisite skills to steal 40 bases in a season. At the very least, he is a younger version of Nyjer Morgan, I happen to think he is closer to Jacoby Ellsbury.

OF – Juan Francisco, Cincinnati Reds – Given the opportunity he could probably hit 30 homeruns in a season. His plate discipline is not great but he mashes what he connects with. As a fifth outfielder or utility player in an NL-only league, you could do much worse.

UTL/DH – Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians – He looks healthy. He is ripping the ball in Spring Training. We also know from experience that he can do a ton of good to a fantasy team when he is feeling good. I would not expect 40 homeruns again, but 30 are not out of the question. Plus: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox – Ortiz fixed a mechanical problem in his swing and looked more Big Papi-like in the second half of last season. He should have better all around totals in 2010 but we have seen his best seasons already.

P – Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Rays – He had a very solid rookie season which included a strong second half of the season where his K9 went up nearly every month due to increased use of his curveball.

P – Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics – As good as he was in his rookie season, he was better than he looked. His ERA of 4.06 will fool some of the less perceptive members of your league. Anderson is a stud in progress. He has the strikeout ability, the control, and the groundball induction skills to be one of the best in the game. His LOB of 67 percent, his BABIP of .317, and his 3.69 FIP are all signs of the improvement that we could see in 2010. Get him now, this may be your last chance for a decade.

P – Joel Pineiro, Los Angeles Angels – Some doubt that Pineiro can maintain 2009’s gains with the Angels. I actually think he could be better. Pineiro has talked enough about his change in pitching style that I believe he will stick with it. He will be pitching in a good pitching environment with a better defense behind him and supported by a better offense.

P – Phil Hughes, New York Yankees – The hype around Phil Hughes is certainly still loud but the nature of the hype has changed. Instead of being regarded as the best pitching prospect in baseball as he was just a few years ago, he is now considered semi-flop with a reconsidered ceiling of a number three starter. This is good news for you. Now you can grab the pitcher on the cheap. Almost every projection out there is based on Hughes receiving a few spot starts and spending the rest of the season in the bullpen. He has the changeup working again, and the Yankees have another ace in the making.

P – Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks – Kennedy has a strikeout rate and walk rate that should indicate a successful pitcher. He is not a groundball pitcher. He has demonstrated an ability to keep the ball in the park. He induces many infield flies (as Barry Zito used to do). The D’Backs will give him a complete opportunity to perform in the majors, a chance he was unlikely to get as a Yankee. Do not go crazy but for a few bucks, I love him in NL-only leagues.

P – Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians – Justin Masterson, underutilized with the Red Sox due to their outstanding pitching depth, is a better pitcher than you may understand. He has the power sinker to induce mad numbers of groundballs. He strikes out batters at a nice clip and if he can bring some of his minor league control to the majors, he will have the holy trinity of abilities that we look for in young starters. I almost did not include him in this article for selfish reasons. I want him in my local leagues that much. But I couldn’t do that to you.

P – Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays – It is amazing how quickly these guys can fall off the fantasy radar. He does not strike out many batters but he induces a ton of groundballs. He combines that with decent control. And he induces a ton of groundballs. The Blue Jays will give him an extended opportunity this spring. I think it will work out well.

P – Mike Adams, San Diego Padres – Personally, I think the Padres should keep Heath Bell as their closer. So far, the Padres seem to think the same way. However, the media and fans calling for and expecting the Padres to trade their more expensive players (even though they are relatively cheap) can have a powerful effect on a team, especially when they are not winning. Mike Adams has been around and he has pretty typical closer stuff. He has the big fastball, the strikeout totals, and he even induces groundballs at a decent clip. The great thing for Adams owners is the improved control. Adams went from shaky control to damn good control over the last few years. He can do the job.

P – Matt Guerrier, Minnesota Twins – Before Spring Training began I considered him an excellent set-up reliever. He was a great candidate for someone planning to use the Three Reliever Strategy. Now, with Jon Rauch the closer, he becomes a candidate for saves and his potential value explodes. Remember Jon Rauch (since injuries prevented him from starting) for a saves role in the past. However, something whether it is injuries or just bad luck has prevented him from embracing it long term. If he fails again, guess who takes his place… Throwing a dollar down on Jesse Crain couldn’t hurt either.

The Cat-Nappers (A loud noise would wake them in a hurry) - This group consists of players that are definitely underrated, un-hyped, or inexperienced but producing or due to produce much better than the general perception. These players are deeper league targets.

C – Kurt Suzuki, Oakland Athletics – When you consider the money involved there is no fantasy catcher I like more than Suzuki. He has very good plate discipline, he can draw walks and get on base, he has good power, and steals a handful of bases. Yet, he is available at bargain rates in a whole lot of leagues.

1B – Daniel Murphy, New York Mets – Murphy should be a second baseman or a third baseman but that just isn’t going o happen right now. Instead, Murphy will be the primary starter at first base. He has solid plate discipline and power that would be decent coming from your middle infield but lousy at first base. But at the end of the season he should (assuming he doesn’t have another three-month slump) have totals around .280 BA, .340OBP, .450 SLG, 15 homers, 10 steals , and a bunch of runs scored depending on his final location in the lineup.

3B – David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals – If he can avoid another DUI Freese should be the starting third baseman for the Cardinals. He can hit. He has solid plate discipline and 25-homer power and can steal a base if asked. I have him for $8 in my local AL-only league. I’m keeping him.

CR – Jake Fox, Oakland Athletics – Fox will initially be a part-time DH and fill in at both infield corners. If Daric Barton has another poor start he could take over at first. Fox is potentially a better hitter than Jack Cust but lacks major league experience. I would like him even more if there were not so much competition at the corners in Oakland.

2B – Tony Abreu, Arizona Diamondbacks - He came to the D’Backs as the Player-to-be-Named in the Jon Garland deal. He makes strong contact but lacks patience at the plate. Abreu also has decent power and speed for a middle infielder. I think of him as a Howie Kendrick type. He is a strong candidate to become the starting second baseman.

SS – Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals – He will not be ready to start the season. Aviles may have started poorly in 2009 but that does not mean that 2008 was a fluke.

MI – Mike McCoy, Toronto Blue Jays – A career minor leaguer that hit .307 with a .405 on-base percentage last season at Triple-A, walking 80 times and striking out just 70 while going stealing 40-for-46 on the basepaths, yeah, that’s a sleeper. He does not have any pop, but he can get on base, can handle the strike zone and is a smart base stealer.

OF – Julio Borbon, Texas Rangers – If you just like him, you are underestimating him. We will not get it all in 2010 but Borbon’s potential is vast. He is an excellent contact hitter, draws walks like a leadoff hitter, has solid plate discipline, and hits the ball on the ground the way a player of his speed should. He could steal 50 bases this season or even more if the Rangers feel like running this year. They certainly have the personnel for it.

OF – Aaron Cunningham, San Diego Padres – Away from the outfield glut of Oakland, he joins the outfield glut in San Diego but he’s becomes the best center field option. He has some power and speed. A 20/20 season is very possible if he wins full time at-bats. As I write this, the Padres seem to be leaning towards Tony Gwynn Jr., which I understand emotionally but intellectually seems somewhat stupid.

OF – Fernando Martinez, New York Mets – The Mets and their manager Jerry Manuel are probably dumb enough to force Martinez back to the minors in favor of established mediocrities like Angel Pagan and gary Matthews jr. However, this is a player with major league talent and star potential. If stashing is possible in your league, you should be the one stashing him.

OF – Terry Evans, Los Angeles Angels - Evans is out of minor league options, which gives him a good chance to claim one of the openings the Angels have for a reserve outfielder, and even though he's a bit old for a prospect (he just turned 28), there's actually some potential here if he gets a chance at regular playing time. Evans hit .309 with 33 homers and 37 steals between high Class A and Double-A in 2006, and .301 with 15 homers and 24 steals in 2007, before missing much of 2008 due to injury. He bounced back last year with a .291 average, 26 homers and 28 steals at Triple-A. Sometimes production can come from an unexpected source if that player gets a chance to play (witness Garrett Jones last year), and that could be the case with Evans if he somehow finds playing time.

UTL/DH – Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins – The Twins have built up the lineup entering their new stadium. Kubel has been very good, and he could be even better in 2010.

P – Felipe Paulino, RHP, Houston Astros – Injuries destroyed Paulino’s 2007 and 2008 seasons. But his fantastic ability to strikeouts batters, improving control, some ability to induce groundballs, and seriously bad luck in 2009 make Paulino an excellent sleeper who should be available for pennies in your auction.

P – Bryan Augenstein, Arizona Diamonbacks

P – Ryan Rowland-Smith, Seattle Mariners

P – Marc Rzepczynski, Toronto Blue Jays – If he finds control over his great sinker and excellent slider in the majors he will collect strikeouts in addition to being an extreme groundball pitcher.

P – Aaron Poreda, San Diego Padres

P – Shawn Marcum, Toronto Blue Jays

P – Blake Hawksworth, St Louis Cardinals

P – Juan Gutierrez, RHP,ArizonaDiamondbacks – He’ll get important outs for the dbacks, the question is which inning.

The Nearly Comatose Commandos - This team is loaded with long shots and comebacks. These are the high risk, high reward players. You do not want to own more than one or two of these players because the potential for failure is almost as high as the potential reward.

C – Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers

1B – Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox

3B – Troy Glaus, Atlanta Braves

CR – Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals

2B – Ronnie Belliard, Los Angeles – He’s no superstar but if he gets a starter’s at-bats he’ll be worth owning in most leagues.

SS – J.J. Hardy, Minnesota Twins – At this point, I think we know what Hardy is. He is an extremely streaky but powerful hitter who had an unlucky 2009 season. He will never be a great hitter but .270 with 20-plus homers from shortstop is good enough for me.

OF – Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers – If you look closely you will see that despite a disappointing season Gomez actually showed some improvement in his plate discipline and patience. Gomez is a potential star and one of my favorite members of this sleeper team.

OF – "Andruw Jones is "said to be in the best shape he's been in for a decade," writes SI.com's Jon Heyman.
"Jones agreed to a one-year, $500,000 contract with the White Sox in late November and is expected to serve as the club's designated hitter most nights. The 32-year-old batted .214/.323/.459 with 17 homers and 43 RBI in 281 at-bats with the Rangers in 2009 and is a fine add in AL-only leagues.
"

OF – Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers

P – Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers

P – Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox and Matsuzaka had it out last season. The result was a renewed peace between them. Matsuzaka will stop working slightly apart from the team and do everything as every other member of team does. He will work with the Boston pitching coaches and work out on their program. He will even spend three weeks at the Athletes Performance Institute in Arizona before spring training. The same place used by some of baseball’s best athletes including teammates Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia.

P – Manny Parra, Milwaukee Brewers - He destroyed a few fantasy seasons in 2009. But Manny Parra has the stuff of an ace. He just struggles to harness it from game to game. New pitching coach Rick Peterson may be just the man to straighten him out.

P – Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins - Minnesota Twins left-hander Francisco Liriano, a rookie sensation in 2006 before an elbow injury stalled his progress, pitched 26⅔ scoreless innings in a row in the Dominican League, including the playoffs. He had 35 strikeouts in 27⅔ innings.

P – John Maine, New York Mets - When he was last healthy he went 15-10 with a pretty good ERA. After two injury-plagued seasons, he will be coming to you dirt-cheap. For a single-digit price, he is worth the risk.

P – Chien-Ming Wang

P – Billy Buckner, Arizona Diamondbacks - In 77.1 innings pitched he struck out 7.45 batters per nine innings, issuing 3.38 BB/9. He also kept the ball down, generating grounders 48.8 percent of the time. Buckner’s xFIP, based on whiffs, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, was 3.95- nearly two and a half runs lower than his actual ERA.

P – Ben Sheets, Oakland Athletics

P – Justin Duchscherer

The Fresh Ones – This team’s roster loads up on rookies and first-year players with very little major league experience and usually even less name value. These players all have an opportunity to make their major league teams and could have massive impacts if the playing time is there.
C – Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers
C – Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians
1B – Justin Smoak
3B – Brett Wallace, Toronto Blue Jays
CR – Chris Carter
2B – Scott Sizemore, Detroit Tigers
SS – Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee Brewers
MI – Cliff Pennington, Oakland Athletics

OF – Chris Heisey, Cincinnati Reds – Heisey is a potential 20/20 fantasy stud. His primary obstacle is to overcome his status as a late round draft pick and a rookie on a Dusty Baker team. Wish him luck. In 585 plate appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A, Heisey hit a robust 314/.379/.521 with 22 home runs, and for good measure he swiped 21 bases in 24 attempts.
OF – Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves
OF – Desmond Jennings
OF – Casper Wells, Detroit Tigers – He could provide the offense from center field in 2010 that Austin Jackson hopes to provide in future seasons, maybe better.
OF – Michael Taylor, Oakland Athletics

UTL/DH – Jesus Montero, New York Yankees – There is little hype around Jesus Montero becoming the 2010 Rookie of the Year. This is primarily due to Jorge Posada filling the catcher position (and Monetero’s need for continued development there) and Nick Johnson’s arrival as the new designated hitter. If Johnson requires a stint on the disabled list (as has often been the case), it would probably herald the arrival of Jesus Montero to the major leagues. It is only a matter of time. Then we will see a Mike Piazza, Carlos Delgado level of talent hit the majors.

P – Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
P – Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays
P – Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles
P – Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays
P – Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
P – Hector Rondon, Cleveland Indians
P – Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
P – Mark Melancon, RHP, Yankees
P – Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
The Keeper Sleepers – These players are the names you will be looking at in 2011. No one will care now so you will get most of these players on the cheap. Only draft these guys if you can stash them away. In leagues with minor league systems most of these guys should be drafted already. If not be certain to pounce on them.
C – Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
C – Josh Thole, New York Mets
1B – Logan Morrison, Florida Marlins
3B – Josh Bell, Baltimore Orioles
CR – Danny Valencia, Minnesota Twins
2B – David Adams, New York Yankees – Adams is one of those guys who tend to be called scrappy. He plays the game with passion and works hard at it. Compared to Dustin Pedroia for his talent as well as his drive to be the best, he will not quit until he makes it. He will steal some bases and eventually hit for power but his strength will be getting on base.

SS – Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs
MI – Adeinis Hechavarria, Toronto Blue Jays - Cuban Free Agent
OF – Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins
OF – Dominic Brown, Philadelphia Phillies

OF – Ryan Westmoreland, Boston Red Sox – His potential is as high as any one player on this list. Unfortunately, last week Westmoreland underwent surgery to remove a cavernous malformation in his brain.
From Joy of Sox: (http://joyofsox.blogspot.com/2010/03/report-westmoreland-surgery-successful.html)
According to the Barrow Neurological Institute at St. Joseph's Hospital and Medical Center in Phoenix, AZ, Red Sox minor league outfielder Ryan Westmoreland today underwent successful surgery to remove a cavernous malformation in his brain. Dr. Robert Spetzler performed the surgery. The announcement was made by General Manager Theo Epstein. Following the five-hour procedure, Westmoreland remains in the intensive care unit but has come through the surgery well. Due to the complexity of this surgery, Ryan will face a difficult period initially before beginning his recovery.

OF – Will Venable/Tony Gwynn Jr.
OF –
UTL/DH –
P – Tanner Scheppers, Texas Rangers
P – Jordan Zimmerman

P – Tim Alderson - Alderson has asked, and the Pirates have agreed, to restore his motion to its origins when he was the 22nd-overall selection in 2007 out of Scottsdale, Ariz. He felt he got away from the mechanics that enabled him to regularly throw 89-93 mph fastballs. Poor kid, they were down to 87-91 mph last season, when he went 10-3 with three different teams in two separate leagues. Still, that supposedly slower fastball is said to have hit-the-dot command. Ergo, the Pirates don't want to mess up a good thing, but they're behind Alderson in this mechanics quest.
P –
P – Mark Rogers, Milwaukee Brewers -
P – Jose Ceda, Florida Marlins
P – Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals
P – Jenrry Mejia, New York Mets
P – Dan Runzler, San Francisco -