Third baseman Josh Bell has been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk and will be activated by the Orioles in time for Thursday night's game. He will bat seventh and man third base. The Orioles needed a bat with Luke Scott being placed on the disabled list with a strained hamstring.
I like Bell a lot as a prospect and believe he will eventually be a productive major league player. However, he was not exactly tearing up Triple-A. He was batting .266 for Norfolk with 10 homers and 44 RBIs in 74 games this season. He should be owned in all AL-only leagues and large mixed leagues with deep rosters should be aware.
This is what I wrote about Bell before the 2010 season started:
Josh Bell became an Oriole via the Los Angeles Dodgers by being the primary return in the George Sherrill trade. There is a strong possibility that he begins the 2010 season as the starting third baseman. Oddly, it seems his development as a switch hitter is going to be a major factor in the decision. Bell is extremely good from the left side of the plate facing right-handed pitchers. According to minorleaguesplits.com, Josh Bell hit .340 with 19 homers in 315 at-bats as a left-handed hitter, and .198 with one homer in 131 at-bats as a right-handed hitter in 2009. Most reports say his mechanics are fine from both sides of the plate though ESPN’s Jason Grey has said he can “get a little big” swinging from his heels on the right-handed side.
There are those that believe that Bell should abandon switch-hitting and become a left-handed batter. This is the possibility most likely to send Bell to the minors (assuming he has a strong spring and the Orioles do not make a huge move to fill the position). In this scenario, the Orioles would be unlikely to allow Bell to adjust to seeing left-handed pitching from the left side in the majors. Fortunately, those closest to the Orioles believe they are happy with Bell as he is and want to see him continue to switch hit. The belief there (and here) is that Bell can develop enough as a hitter from the right side to be an asset.
Josh Bell just became more dangerous as the season and the post season passed. He was a monster in the AFL. He posted an Isolated Power of .281 (for reference Alex Rodriguez has a career ISO of .271) after the trade, during 114 at-bats at double-A for the Orioles. On the season, he slashed .297/.370/.538 with 35 doubles, 2 triples, 20 homeruns. He also received a very favorable projection from theThe Bill James Handbook 2010. He probably will not be much of a sleeper come draft season but he is an incredibly talented prospect that is worthy of fantasy attention even as a rookie.
Looking to improve my pitching and capitalize on what I think is a buy-low / sell-high.
I deal: Carl Crawford, Billy Butler, Scott Baker and Carlos Marmol
I get: Justin Upton, Juan Pierre, Dan Haren and Huston Street.
I'm thinking I net even on steals, saves and Ks and am sacrificing RBI and Average for improved pitching ratios and upside potential in both Upton and Haren.
What do you think?
I think we should start by looking at the stats of the players involved.
Carl Crawford - .310/.373/.488, with seven homers, 57 runs, 38 RBI and 27 stolen bases
Crawford seems to be past his shoulder problems. He hit .296/.380/.481 with 12 stolen bases in June. The last seven days he has hit .364/.364/.455 so he doesn't seem to be slowing down at all.
Billy Butler - .322/.377/.480, with 8 homers, 40 runs, 42 RBI and zero stolen bases
Billy Butler is having a nice season. He might be slower to develop the power we'd like to see out of our first basemen but there is very little to complain about here. For June he is batting .284/.333/.461 and .304/.385/.478 the lat seven days.
Scott Baker - 4.97 ERA/4.07 FIP/3.81 xFIP with six wins, 7.78 K9, 1.78 BB9, and 1.41 HR9
June has not been kind to Scott Baker. But most of the problem as illustrated by his xFIP has been poor luck. With a regression closer to his FIP seeming likely, I think he will have an excellent second half.
Carlos Marmol - 2.27 ERA/2.32 FIP/ 2.84 xFIP with two wins, 14 saves, 16.65 K9, 6.31 BB9 0.25 HR9
Marmol isn't always great in non-save situations. The Cubs losing ways don't help. However, Marmol has provided excellent numbers and a decent save total. He has a pretty firm grip on the closer role at this point.
Upton began the season rather slow but has hit .312/.423/.548 with six homers and three stolen bases in June. Crawford has been better than him thus far but if Upton keeps up his current pace he will have been the better player at the end of the season.
Juan Pierre - .249/.317/ .279 with zero homers, 39 runs, 13 RBI and 29 stolen bases
Juan Pierre is not a great hitter. However he has value to fantasy teams because the White Sox let him run wild. Unfortunately he provides zero power and not much run production. I would not expect his numbers to improve but they shouldn't decline much either.
Dan Haren - 4.56 ERA/3.90 FIP/3.43 xFIP with seven wins, 8.90 K9, 1.70 BB9, 1.47 HR9
Haren has not been as bad as Baker but they both have had rotten luck. This is especially surprising in the year of the pitcher. Haren has not been particularly great of late. He may be an upgrade over Baker but not a tremendous one.
Huston Street - his stats are irrelevant at this point
Street has just returned to the Rockies active roster after spending most of the season on the disabled list. I can ignore my code against trading for pitchers recently coming off the disabled list (even ones with shoulder injuries and a lot of bad injury history). However, I still have to point out that despite achieving his first save, manager Jim Tracy is insisting that the closer-by-committee is still in effect. This is not to say he won't re-earn the job, just that he does not yet have it secured.
In Conclusion Whew...so. Our reader is looking for a pitching upgrade. There is probably one here, assuming Street stays healthy and becomes the closer again. Not an assumption I would make, but it is a fair possibility. It is a risk but one that is (as the reader surmised) at the cost of batting average, probably a few homers and some RBI production. I believe he'll actually gain in steals. But the actual difference in pitching is almost nothing. For perhaps a few points of ERA, you lose quite a bit if nothing changes.
The entire trade seems to hinge on Dan Haren pitching like the top ten pitcher he was expected to be. He has yet to show much of that Haren to this point. And although I don't really believe in labeling players first or second half players, Haren is definitely more of the later. Check out his last three years of stats:
By Day/Month
ERA
W
L
SV
SVO
G
GS
CG
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
AVG
April
2.10
9
6
0
0
17
17
1
111.2
83
35
26
9
21
89
.203
May
3.07
6
4
0
0
16
16
0
111.1
88
38
38
11
19
103
.214
June
1.80
9
1
0
0
17
17
1
120.1
77
26
24
11
23
110
.180
July
2.77
10
3
0
0
16
16
1
107.1
99
39
33
6
23
99
.236
August
4.97
7
6
0
0
17
17
0
108.2
132
64
60
21
19
112
.295
September
4.38
4
6
0
0
16
16
1
102.2
122
53
50
11
27
101
.298
October
7.50
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
6.0
9
5
5
1
1
7
.346
Pre All-Star
2.34
27
13
0
0
56
56
3
385.0
284
115
100
33
70
342
.202
Post All-Star
4.33
18
14
0
0
44
44
1
283.0
326
145
136
37
63
279
.286
I would save my trade ammo for a more certain upgrade. I think the risk that nothing is gained in the desired areas is too strong in this deal. I would pass and look to acquire a pitcher performing better right now. Perhaps one of these guys:
5X5 H2H league (OBP instead of Avg). My free agent choices are M.Tejada, Jose Lopez, Beckham, Pennington, Peralta, or S. Rodriguez. Obviously Utley is my MI (behind Kinsler/Rollins).
Whaddya think? Big Mike
Tough decision. At least you have a mix of possibilities. You have the fading veteran in Tejada. The underachieving veteran in Lopez. The struggling phenom in Beckham. The slap-hitting speedster in Pennington, the disappointing Peralta, and the underutilized youngster in Sean Rodriguez.
Part of the decision has to be based on how your team is doing and what your category needs are.
Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles - Tejada no longer provides much power. He hits for a fairly empty average thanks to being part of the underachieving Orioles lineup. In your league he is nearly worthless with just a .313 OBP.
Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners - Lopez probably has more upside than Tejada at this point but his stats are even worse. He has a slash line of .244/.269/.337 and is showing zero power. Definitely pass.
Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox - Beckham is the most promising of the players on this list. He was expected to be a force in Chicago but has slumped through most of the season. He is swinging at more pitches out of the zone than he did in his rookie season. However, his contact rates are still pretty good and there is definitely a degree of bad luck. Unfortunately he does not walk much. There have been some signs of life this week, he hit his first homer in quite some time and seems to be coming around. If you can afford to embrace some risk this might be a good place to go.
Cliff Pennington, Oakland Athletics - Pennington is a mediocre hitter but he steals bases and walks enough to justify his reputation as a leadoff hitter. He has a slash of .247/.323/.359 and like the others has displayed little power. But mediocre is better than lousy and that makes him a real possibility.
Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians - Peralta showed some promise a few years ago but seemed to lose it when he was moved off shortstop. Perhaps his defensive position is like Sampson's hair. Still, he has more powers than the others have shown (though nothing to go crazy about). He's a possibility if we're desperate for any homeruns we can get.
Sean Rodriguez, Tampa Bay Rays - Rodriguez hasn't been that great overall but has been hot in June. Hitting .292 with four home runs and three stolen bases as of the 26th. His potential is second only to Beckham on this list. I have a hunch he'd have been better playing everyday than he is sharing a job, but that's just a hunch. He's the hot hand.
So here are your options:
Shoot for the Stars - Gordon Beckham who has shown signs of life lately.
Take the stolen bases and the best OBP you can get - Cliff Pennington, probably the safest bet.
Desperate for Power - Jhonny Peralta, hope he gets back what he lost in the second half.
Play the hot hand - Sean Rodriguez, hope he keeps it up.
I tend to be an embrace risk type of fantasy owner and would grab Beckham. Play it safe types should probably grab Pennington. If you believe whoever you pick up is short term, Rodriguez is probably the one.
NBC Sports is reporting that the Braves are promoting left-hander Mike Minor to Triple-A Gwinnett after dominating Double-A batters with 109 strikeouts in just 87 innings. Minor is a candidate for a second half call-up if the Braves need the arm. However, they could try to restrict his inning count in just his second professional season.
"The No. 7 overall pick in the 2009 draft is a relatively polished four-pitch southpaw (despite his first-inning blowup in the Rising Stars game). He sits at 90-92 mph but showed he could dial it up to 94 when needed. He had good fade on his change, and his curveball was inconsistent but good at times. He needs to improve his fringy slider, but he's another pitcher who could move very quickly but doesn't have a huge ceiling."
They also have a report on Aroldis Chapman's progress in his transition (at least temporarily) into a reliever.
"Excellent," GM Walt Jocketty said when asked how Chapman was doing as a reliever. "His last time out [on Saturday], he pitched one inning and faced two left-handed hitters and struck them out. He got the right-hander out. In that one performance, he was dominating."
Chapman has allowed one run over three innings in two relief appearances with Triple-A Louisville, striking out five and walking one. The Cuban fireballer was scheduled to work two innings behind the rehabbing Edinson Volquez on Tuesday night.
Mark Prior was once the man. He was a stud starter for the Chicago Cubs and helped propel them to one of their best seasons in decades. He was coveted by fantasy owners everywhere. But Dusty Baker was his manager, thus his arm was destined to fall off, and it pretty much did.
From Fox Sports: Right-handed pitcher Mark Prior, who came out of USC with a hype along the lines of Stephen Strasburg, is still trying to piece his injury-plagued career back together.
Prior, 29, will work out for major league clubs at USC on Wednesday. Prior, who has not pitched in the big leagues since going 1-6 in nine games with the Cubs in 2006, has been working with USC pitching coach Tom House, the former big-league pitching coach who has worked with Prior since his high school days in San Diego.
Most major league teams are expected to have a scout in attendance. Prior was the second player selected in the 2001 draft, Minnesota opting for high school catcher Joe Mauer, and then Twins general manager Terry Ryan being criticized at the time for passing on a pitcher that many claimed was ready to step directly into a big-league rotation.
Prior did receive a then-record $10.5 million signing bonus, and appeared to validate the Cubs decision in 2003, his first full big-league season, when he was 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA. Prior, however, developed shoulder problems that required surgery after that season, and has made only 57 big league starts since.
— Tracy Ringolsby
Prior seems a long way from being an effective pitcher for fantasy owners. However, you never know. Stranger things have happened than a former stud pitcher regaining some semblance of effectiveness again. He is worth watching but don't act too rashly.
Who the hell is Brennan Boesch? Because of his incredible production the Detroit Tigers and a few fantasy owners have much better lineups. But for most fans he came out of nowhere and analysts have been saying his lucky streak just can't last.
Fantasy owners tend to be a numbers oriented lot. As the art of sabermetrics has become more popular a large segment of this crowd has developed an almost snobbish dismissal of players that do not fit their criteria for players of interest. Brennan 'Hollywood' Boesch was such a player for most of his minor league career. In 2009 he caught the attention of some Tigers fans with a 28-homer season for Double-A Erie. Baseball America rated him as the best power prospect in the EL though they left him off their top-20 prospect list for the circuit; they did rate him Detroit's #25 prospect. The power had been projected but not realized until then. But no one doubts the power potential of the 6'5" slugger...
The name of the game is simple for Boesch, as he is a power hitter through and through. Most scouts tossed around plus-plus or 70 power for Boesch, though one scout felt his power may warrant an 80 grade. Boesch can hit balls out to any part of any park on the planet, and his power is absolutely prodigious to the pull side. He gets the bat to the zone quickly and he rips the barrel through the hitting zone with incredibly muscular upper and lower arms.
For all his power, Boesch has some very significant kryptonite. Most scouts see significant holes in his swing, and a susceptibility to breaking balls in nearly any part of the zone. He lacks the pitch recognition skills to consistently work counts, and he has a below average hit tool as a result. There will always be a lot of swing and miss in his game, and it is a matter of whether his power will be enough to make up for what will likely be a lot of strikeouts and a very low on-base percentage.
Boesch is an average runner. His jumps in the outfield are fringy at best, and most scouts I spoke with see at best, an average defender. He can make most of the plays in right field, and he has an above-average arm with decent carry.
His makeup rates as a positive in his favor, and he does a solid job of keeping his mind focused on the present and not letting poor plays in the field or poor at-bats, impact the task at hand on the field. He is unlikely to be a star, but his power is difficult to ignore, and he will get chances to nail down a corner outfield spot if he continues to blast balls out of the park.
What most analysts did not like about Boesch was his extremely aggressive style that resulted in very few walks and low on-base percentages. A scout explained to Nick Underhill, a writer for TigsTown.com how he felt watching Boesch play during the 2009 season:
“How do I fill this out? Every time I start to fill it out I don’t feel good about it. He hits the ball hard, plays decent defense, but he’s too wild at the plate. Way too wild, this is the hardest report I’ve had to file in a while.”
At the University of California, where Boesch played three seasons, Boesch had these batting lines -- .284/.365/.541 (7BB, 3 HBP) in 74 at-bats, .355/.436/.567 (26BB, 6 HBP) in 217 at-bats, and .313/.372/.505 (20BB, 2HBP) in 214 at-bats. This is shown to demonstrate that hitting for average (with high BABIPs) and showing at least some discipline at the plate is not entirely unprecedented. Boesch was considered a potential first round pick before the 2006 season. He fell because of a swing that some scouts considered stiff and not ideal for play with a wooden bat, and some bad reports on his defense in the outfield. However, it is worth posting his college stats as evidence that hitting for high averages and walking ( a 9.2 percent walk rate at the University of California) is not entirely unprecedented.
According to the few reports to be found, including a report from John Sickels, Boesch's problems in the minors were the result of that same stiff swing. But it is obvious that part of his problem has also been a lack of patience. Curious that he seems to have found his solution by becoming ultra aggressive and swinging at almost every pitch. In an article forFanGraphs.com, Joe Pawlikowski pointed out that as of May 11th, 2010, Boesch was swinging at 66.2 percent [of pitches], more than 20 percentage points above league average. Obviously he was doing good things with a lot of those pitches.
Boesch's swing percentage is down to (a still very high) 58.2 percent. His O-swing percentage (over 50 percent at the time of Joe Pawlikowski's article) is now down to (again, still very high) 42.6 percent. He has also made slightly better than average contact in all those swings. If nothing else, Boesch seems headed in the right direction as he continues to pound the ball as June ends.
Make no mistake, Boesch had a very luck influenced BABIP (over .500 at one point in May) his first month in the major leagues. But in June his walk rate doubled along with his power. Put another way, after just two walks in his first 50 PA, he has 14 in his next 166 PA, while this will not put him in the class of patient sluggers like Jason Giambi or Adam Dunn, it does make his projections for the rest of the season look considerably better. The increase in walks in conjunction with his increased power makes sense. Various reports, easily found on the internet, will demonstrate how an increase in power almost always leads to more walks as pitchers adjust.
Conclusions As of this writing Brennan Boesch has 198 at-bats and a batting line of .338/.389/.621 with 12 homeruns, 26 runs, 43 RBI, and two stolen bases. He has a BABIP of .374, a .283 ISO, and a .432wOBA. His numbers look a lot like Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers. Of batters with at least 190 at-bats he ranks fifth in wOBA just behind Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera, Hamilton, and Kevin Youkilis and slightly ahead of Robinson Cano, Paul Konerko and Joey Votto. He's been very good.
Starting with the bad news, it seems obvious that his batting average will creep down. He has numbers that will be very difficult to maintain (seemingly impossible some might say) with his peripherals. Even noting the recent improvements, Boesch still swings at too many pitches, especially outside of the strike zone. Though his aggression is at least somewhat responsible for his success, he must improve his pitch recognition and selection if he hopes to have long term success. He needs to take more walks, hitting for power will get him part of the way. If he learns to lay off most pitches out of the strike zone, he will increase his OBA dramatically.
With his swing nice and loosened, Boesch has become a very good contact hitter and I believe we can call that one of his skills. He has fantastic power that scouts have often rated a 70 on the 20-80 scale and in at least one case he received an 80. He is a hard worker who is constantly working to become a better player. He is extremely confident, bordering on overconfidence, which is an asset as long as he also remains coachable. This is a combination that leads me to believe that Boesch is capable of hitting for good batting averages (.270-plus) with excellent power on a regular basis.
Fantasy owners with Boesch on their rosters should hold on to him. Selling high is not a bad idea, but I believe that he will have continuing value in keeper leagues. Those owners should also prepare for the massive slumps to which hitters this aggressive frequently fall victim. When he does slow down, resist the urge to dump him if he can be placed in reserve. For the balance of the season I would expect the power numbers to continue and for his batting average to continue to gradually decline. He can not be considered the next Pujols at this point, he just doesn't have the skills. However, a solid power hitter with decent (not amazing) batting averages is already a virtual certainty.
Also known as the buy-low list, here are five players who are either slumping right now or have been slumping all season, and the reasons why their slumps (hopefully) won't last. Some players are just second-half guys, for whatever reason.
1. Mark Teixeira -- If you have played fantasy baseball at all in the past few years, you know what Teix is capable of doing after the all-star break (which is coming up on July 12). In 2009, he hit .313 after the break and raised both his on-base and slugging percentages significantly. In 2008, the first- and second-half differences were even more dramatic -- he went from batting .271 to .366; slugged nearly 200 points higher (.656 vs. 484) and raised his OBP from .373 to .464. Now is the time to make a play for Teix -- and you are hoping his owner can't take another day of his .230 average so far this season.
2. Derrek Lee -- Lee had an enormous second half last season; and while he is only batting .233 right now (not nearly as good as the .280 first half he posted last season), he posted a .336 average with a .656 slug and .436 OBP after the break in 2009. His current BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) is just .275 -- well below his career mark of .321. So, has Lee just been a bit unlucky this season, or has his career turned the downhill corner? My guess is the former. Buy.
3. Mark Reynolds -- Reynolds has improved in the second half in two of the last three seasons, and his career second-half batting average is 10 points higher than first-half. He is another player whose BABIP this season is way below his career mark (currently he is at .271, and his career number is .333). Give his second-half improvement in past years, I would expect his luck to change.
4. Jorge Cantu -- After a red-hot start to the season, Cantu has been plugging along at a snail's pace in the RBI and batting average department. He is batting .210 in June with just 9 RBIs -- just for comparison's sake, he had a .311 average and 23 RBI in April. And yeah, his slugging has fallen dramatically in that span, from .567 at the end of April to the .432 it stands at today. The good news is that Cantu improved slightly in the second half in 2009, and I think a shake-up a the helm in Florida is going to spur him on for the second half this year. This one is more of a gut-feeling pick than the others that are based more in numbers; however, Cantu's BABIP is 21 points below his career average -- so there's that.
5. Adam Lind -- It is much more difficult to predict players that haven't been around all that long. His career splits indicate that he is a much better second-half player, but most of that was determined by the enormous season he posted last year. So what is Lind, who has a .205 BA, just 9 HR and 34 RBI doing wrong? Well first of all, he just may have been pressing -- really hard -- in the first half, trying to reproduce the magic of last season. Toronto has tried to ease the pressure by moving Lind down in the lineup (this week), and he responded by hitting his first homer since May. Cito Gaston says Lind and fellow struggling teammate Aaron Hill (who was moved to sixth in the order) will stay down there until they get hot. His BABIP is .244 so far as opposed to the .323 he had last season -- there must be some middle ground to be had here. It might be risky, but it is probably a cheap enough chance to take.
Honorable Mention: Matt Wieters -- I can't use the numbers to back me up, since he is only in his second season, but his second half last year was awesome. He is only hitting .203 in June, so his slump is for real -- let's see if his second half last year was too.
. He probably will not be much of a sleeper come draft season but he is an incredibly talented prospect that is worthy of fantasy attention even as a rookie.
