Grading the Rookies

Here’s a look at rookies who are making a fantasy impact – either positive or negative – this season. Much like a kindergarten teacher, I don’t have the heart to give any rookie an “F” – if only for the plain fact that they are rookies and they deserve a little bit of slack. I hope I don’t leave anybody out. Here we go…

The A’s: The Future Has Arrived - Guys who should be rostered and/or starting in just about any league
1. Brennan Boesch (OF-DET): 243AB 12HR 49RBI .341/.397/.593: Go to the head of the class, Mr. Boesch. Jim Leyland surprised most people when he called up Boesch so early, but the rookie slugger has proven Leyland to be a genius. Despite being a free-swinger, the ROY candidate should continue to see plenty of RBI opportunities batting behind AL triple crown challenger Miguel Cabrera.
2. Jaime Garcia (SP-STL): 98 IP (8-4) 80K/40BB 2.17 ERA 1.25 WHIP: As I have written in the past, Garcia has the best ERA of any starting pitcher in the league outside of Josh Johnson. His success is yet another testament to the effectiveness of Tommy John surgery. While I expect his numbers to slide a bit, a strong second half is looming.
3. Neftali Feliz (RP-TEX): 38 IP (1-2) 42K/13BB 3.82 ERA 1.06 WHIP 23 Saves: Feliz took over the closing duties in April and has never looked back. He is tied for fourth in MLB with his 23 saves; his K:BB ratio is terrific; he has nasty stuff; and he looks to have locked down the closer’s job in Texas for years to come.
4. Jason Heyward (OF-ATL): 259AB 11HR 45RBI .247/.362/.448: Once a shoo-in for ROY after an amazing start to the season, a thumb injury and the resulting decline in power and batting average have thrown a wrench into the machine. However, don’t go rushing to trade, him, I expect him to surge to the head of the rookie class once again in the second half – he is just way too good not to.
5. Mike Leake (SP-CIN): 110 IP (6-1) 70K/39BB 3.53 ERA 1.40 WHIP: The man who took what was supposed to be Aroldis Chapman’s job out of spring training has proven that the brass in Cincinnati knew exactly what they were doing.
6. Buster Posey (C/1B-SF): 141AB 7HR 26RBI .355/.392/.567: In the week before the All-Star break, Posey posted the best statistical week of any hitter this season. He scored more in my points league than any other hitter in any other week by nearly 20 points. Here was the amazing line: 15-27, 0.556 BA, 8 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 9 R, 3 BB. Now that Bengie Molina is gone to Texas, nothing is standing in Posey’s way.
7. Carlos Santana (C-CLE): 95AB 5HR 16RBI .284/.425/.568: While the raw numbers don’t match Posey’s, Santana’s OBP and SLG are proving that he is no run-of-the-mill catcher. Expect a huge second half.
8. John Axford (RP-MIL): 26 IP (5-1) 32K/11BB 3.12 ERA 1.27 WHIP 10 Saves: Like ships passing in the night, the career of Axford is taking off just about as fast as Trevor Hoffman’s is sinking. And he shouldn’t see much competition for saves in Milwaukee.
9. Gaby Sanchez (1B-FLA): 315AB 9HR 38RBI .302/.365/.467: A red-hot June and July have thrust Sanchez into the ROY discussion, and he shouldn’t be available in your league any more.
10. Ike Davis (1B-NYM): 279AB 11HR 40RBI .255/.332/.430: Davis keeps chugging along, and the return of Carlos Beltran should offer him even more lineup protection. However, Davis could be in another rough stretch – he hit just .243 in the 10 games leading up to the break.
11. Austin Jackson (OF-DET): 313AB 1HR 20RBI 14SB .300/.354/.403: Despite the usual ups and downs you would expect from a rookie, Jackson is showing that he has the potential to end up being a prototypical leadoff hitter for years to come – if he can cut down on his strikeouts (88 – way too many) and improve on his OBP. I’d like to see more steals too, but it’s hard to complain about this line from a rookie.
12. Stephen Strasburg (SP-WAS): 43IP (3-2) 61K/11BB 2.32 ERA 1.01 WHIP: I wasn’t going to include Strasburg on the “A list” – mainly because of the rumors that Washington is going to shut him down early. But how can you not include him on the A list with those numbers and that potential?

The B’s: The Future is Almost Here - Major contributors mostly rosterable but with consistency issues
1. Sean Rodriguez (2B-TB): 219AB 6HR 30RBI 7SB .265/.302/.425: The guy has terrific numbers in June, but he limped into the All-Star break, and I need to see extended production in July/August before I’m a 100% buyer. That said, he isn’t really being challenged for playing time, so there is ample opportunity to catch lightning in a bottle again.
2. David Freese (3B-CIN): 240AB 4HR 36RBI .296/.360/.404: The average is great, but we are still waiting for some power. An ankle injury doesn’t help matters.
3. Jonathan Niese (SP-NYM): 90IP (6-3) 73K/28BB 3.61 ERA 1.36 WHIP: For the most part, Niese has looked very good despite battling a few injuries here and there. Note that he – like the rest of the Mets squad – is a much better player at home than on the road. His home ERA (3.23) is a full point better than on the road (4.24).
4. Brian Matusz (SP-BAL): 104 IP (3-9) 80K/38BB 4.775 ERA 1.45 WHIP: The Baltimore factor makes starting him difficult – especially in H2H leagues; however, the K:BB ratio is something to hang your hat on.
5. Justin Smoak (1B-SEA): 247AB 8HR 34RBI .202/.307/.340: To say that anyone hitting .202 is inconsistent would likely be an understatement. He still has great potential and a job in Seattle, but I don’t think the Mariners gig is nearly as promising as one in Texas – less protection in the lineup and a more difficult home park for hitters.

The C’s: Pure Futures - Keep them on your radar, but don’t stampede anyone to get to the waiver wire yet
1. Tyler Colvin (OF-CHC): 183AB 12 HR 32RBI .268/.320/.536: He slowed down in July (.200 average), but his power numbers have been consistent. Playing time should not be an issue in the second half – meaning he can definitely help you in the power department.
2. Madison Bumgarner (SP-SF): 28IP (2-2) 21K/5BB 2.57 ERA 1.04 WHIP: Another guy to keep a close eye on, Bumgarner is 2-0 with one run allowed over 14 innings with 11 strikeouts in his last two starts. A big second half could be looming here.
3. Drew Storen (RP-WAS): 26IP (2-1) 20K/11BB 2.45 ERA 1.21 WHIP: He is on this list because the rumor is that Matt Capps is going to be traded – and Storen should step immediately into the closer’s role, and he should probably keep it for the next few years at least.
4. Mike Stanton (OF-FLA): 108AB 5HR 20RBI .231/.276/.435: The Marlins rushed him up to the majors, and he is paying the price. Major League pitching has proven to be quite a difference from the double-A level. Still, he showed some flashes of his power potential right before the break.
5. Wade Davis (SP-TB): 94 IP (6-9) 62K/42BB 4.69 ERA 1.46 WHIP: He hasn’t lost his job and he has good stuff. Just waiting for it all to come together consistently with that offense behind him. It looks to me like next year will be his year to shine.
6. Alcides Escobar (SS-MIL): 287AB 2HR 24RBI 7SB .240/.297/.324: Highly touted on draft day, his lack of steals and plate discipline has been his downfall this season. But he shouldn’t be losing at-bats in the second half.
7. Jhoulys Chacin (SP-COL): 77IP (5-7) 80K/35BB 4.09 ERA 1.32 WHIP: I have a true aversion to Colorado pitchers, but Chacin has been solid as rookie pitchers go.
8. John Jaso (C-TB): 175AB 3HR 29RBI .274/.393/.377: It escapes me why Tampa isn’t playing Jaso even more than he already is. He’s a good contact hitter who can get on base for the power bats in Tampa, but he is in a time-share with Kelly Shoppach right now.
9. Starlin Castro (SS-CHC): 200AB 2HR 24RBI 2SB .280/.341/.405: Castro has shown some flashes of brilliance (mostly when he was first called up) – but he has been unspectacular in the fantasy world, unable to produce great numbers in the stolen base, OBP or runs categories.
10. Ian Desmond (SS-WAS): 271AB 6HR 36RBI 8SB .254/.297/.395: He has been better in July than June (which was a disaster). He has a decent combination of power and speed, so check his numbers at the end of the month and look for a positive trend.
11. Pedro Alvarez (3B-PIT): 84AB 3HR 11RBI .214/.272/.381: A recent call-up, Alvarez is batting .289 in July with all three of his HR. He is the 3B of the future in Pittsburgh, and it looks like the future is now. Keep an eye on him.

The D’s: The Future ISN'T now - not likely to contribute to your fantasy team this season
1. Jason Donald (SS-CLE): 146AB 2HR 12RBI .274/.329/.425: Besides being known as the guy who was out, but he was really called safe during Armando Galarraga’s perfect game, he entered the All-Star break on fire, hitting .389 in his last six games. Asdrubal Cabrera’s impending return, however, will put a damper on Donald’s production.
2. John Ely (SP-LAD): 80IP (4-7) 59K/25BB 4.63 ERA 1.32 WHIP: To me, Ely looks overmatched in the majors right now – and the Dodgers are doing everything they can to pick up another starting pitcher. He was optioned to AAA on Sunday of this week.
3. Roger Bernadina (OF-WAS): 181AB 5HR 24RBI 7SB .282/.345/.437: Since being called up, Bernadina has played well, but often sits against left-handed pitching.
4. Neil Walker (2B/3B-PIT): 142AB 3HR 12RBI .247/.318/.423: He has respectable hitting numbers and plays just about every day, but he just isn’t producing enough in the counting categories.
5. Reid Brignac (SS-TB): 189AB 2HR 25RBI .265/.329/.365: Sean Rodriguez has stolen his thunder; and despite Jason Bartlett’s struggles, Brignac isn’t much more than a pinch hitter right now.
6. Jose Tabata (OF-PIT): 116AB 1HR 6RBI 8SB .241/.323/.328: He’s a speed guy, but his lack of power and disciplined hitting puts him on the D-list.
7. Scott Sizemore (2B-DET): 97AB 1HR 8RBI .206/.297/.289: He was drafted in many leagues this year, but he has proven to be a bust.

Welcome To Splitsville: Part 2

...Continued from Part One

Here's the rest of my 2010 All-Splits team for players owned by 50% or fewer teams according to Yahoo.

Vs. Righties

C: John Jaso (6% owned) Although he's cooled considerably since May, the 26 year old catcher came seemingly out of nowhere to perform admirably behind the plate for the Tampa Bay Rays. Jaso has put together nice numbers against righties, going .295/.412/.397 in 177 PA, while struggling against lefties in limited action. Interestingly enough, Jaso's MiLB Splits are pretty even throughout his five years on the farm. With enough plate appearances against big league lefties (since returning from injury, the struggling Kelly Shoppach has been getting a lot of appearances against southpaws), Jaso might be able to prove he's deserving of a full-time gig.

1B: Lyle Overbay (4% owned) It seems like you could pencil Overbay into this list every year and still somehow he manages to hold down a full-time job in Toronto. The veteran first baseman has always done better against right-handers (.264/.353/.443 in 269 PA so far in 2010) while doing little against lefties, but that split is even more dramatic this season as he's stunk it up to a tune of .192/.232/.308 so far. With first base so rich in talent, there's no reason to have to roster Overbay outside of the deepest of leagues. If you do however (maybe you own Kendry Morales and Todd Helton, both shelved with injuries), you'd do well to sit him against lefties or platoon him with a guy like Daric Barton or Adam Rosales.

2B: Omar Infante (9% owned) The man who may forever be known (through no fault of his own) as the worst All-Star selection ever is the only 2010 All-Star to also make my All-Splits team. The jack-of-all-trades has been consistently mediocre from both sides of the plate through out his nine years of mostly part-time, MLB play. This season however, the right-handed Infante has shown infinite prowess if not power against righty hurlers, posting a .364/.384/.447 in 138 PA in while disappearing against lefties in limited time (.262/.303/.311 in 67 PA). If he receives regular playing time, I would expect that gap to close quite a bit before season's end.

SS: Wilson Valdez (3% owned) Wait, what? Yeah I put Valdez on this list, what of it? That's how shallow SS is and the 32 year old journeyman plays in a hitter's paradise. While starting in place of the injured Jimmy Rollins at short and now Chase Utley over at second, Valdez has proved useful against righties (.283/.300/.449 with all 4 of his HR in 133 PA), while doing next to nothing against southpaws. Outside of a hot streak, I don't think he's rosterable in 12 team mixed, but I did have him for a cup of coffee on my 15 team mixed league a few weeks ago.

3B: Chase Headley (45% owned) The Padres every day third baseman started off like a ball of fire in April, only to come back down to earth with a thud in May and June. He's been picking it up again lately however, and remains solid against right-handed pitching going .306/.351/.427 with 5 of his 6 homers in 251 PA. His weakness against left-handers remains glaring however, as he's been shut down to the tune of .197/.258/.248 in 129 PA. His sneaky speed makes you want to pencil him in every day in case he swipes a bag, but his ineptitude while facing lefties removes that option unless you like zeros. Cavernous Petco Park saps his power and that weak Padre lineup does him no favors either, so unless you've got another 3B eligible guy to platoon him with, I'd stay away from Headley in all but deep leagues.


OF: Hideki Matsui (37% owned) Godzilla is a shell of the player he was a few years ago with the Yankees and he's been absolutely dreadful against lefties this year - .188/.224/.366 in 107 PA. Against righties however, Matsui can still hit and he's put up a useful .281/.381/.408 line in 231 PA. Consider him rosterable in deeper leagues, when platooned with an outfielder who can rake lefties like Matt Diaz, Jeff Francoeur or Cody Ross.

OF: J.D. Drew (44% owned) The captain of my all-splits team, J.D. Drew is the epitome of a platoon player - when healthy, of course. Drew demolishes right-handers with a .315/.400/.586 line, along with 9 of his 10 home runs in 210 PA. Conversely, he's atrocious against lefties, going .185/.265/.235 in 91 PA. If you've got Drew on your team, platoon him or else!

OF: David DeJesus (50% owned) The Royals outfielder is quietly having a very nice year all around - 45 R/5 HR/ 36 RBI .326/.395/.460 and his career splits aren't that far apart, however this season he's really shined against right-handers, going .344/.403/.478 in 275 PA. I've currently got him in my 12 team mixed league and I sit him against lefties in favor of Dexter Fowler, since his .272/.372/.407 line with little pop or speed in 95 PA doesn't offer much in that format. DeJesus has been mentioned in trade talks with the Red Sox, where I see him in a platoon with Mike Cameron, once Jacoby Ellsbury gets back, which would certainly help his counting numbers against righties.

UTL: Angel Pagan (50% owned) Currently the Mets leader in batting average (.315), Pagan will get the bulk of the playing time in a platoon with Jeff Francoeur, once Carlos Beltran gets back. His speed makes him playable every day right now, but if you can afford to, it's best to platoon him to take advantage of his splits. Against lefties Pagan has been pretty underwhelming with a .273/.309/.386 line in 96 PA. Facing righties though, Angel has been heavenly, belting out it out at a .335/.398/.512 clip. Platooned with a lefty killer and you're looking at steady production in the second half.

I'm ending my list here, but there are lots of other players around, who if platooned properly can provide your fantasy team with a nice lift. Who do you think are some other players who could have made the Splitsville All-Stars?

Welcome To Splitsville: Part One

It's common knowledge in baseball today that hitters generally find it easier to bat against pitchers of the opposite hand. It's easier for the hitter to pick up the pitch as it leaves the pitchers hand and most breaking balls will break into the center of a hitter's field of vision, rather than away from it. When a team's roster allows, managers regularly deploy platoons to gain the upper hand on the day's opposing starter.

Ever since Bob "Death To Flying Things" Ferguson (how's that for a great nickname?) first took to hitting from both sides of the plate, back in the formative days of our pastime, players and managers alike have understood the advantage that a hitter has when facing a pitcher of the opposite hand - even if teams were not actively platooning players to get the most out of this advantage until years later. According to Bill James' essay, "A History Of Platooning," featured in "The Complete Book of Armchair Baseball" the first manager known to utilize the lefty/righty platoon was Detroit Tigers manager, Bill Armour, who juggled catchers to take advantage of their handedness in his final year in The Bigs, 1906. As roster size expanded and the dead-ball era waned, managers such as John McGraw and later Casey Stengel would popularize the strategy and make it common practice in modern baseball.

In deeper fantasy baseball leagues, owners often roster players whose splits are extremely weighted to one side or another. With awareness of these splits, astute owners can make daily lineup decisions (if league rules allow of course) just as real managers do to get the most out of their players strength and minimizing their weakness.

In keeping with this week's All-Star theme, I present to you my position player picks for the 2010 all-left/right-splits team, based on a pool of players who are generally rostered on approximately 50% or fewer teams according to Yahoo. So without further ado, or a profanity-laced Ichiro speech, here are some guys to consider platooning when the opportunity arises.

Note: In a one catcher league, I would not recommend rostering two catchers unless one is also playing another position and his currently catcher eligible.

Part One: Vs. Lefties

C: Ivan Rodriguez (20% owned) The man who's caught the most baseball games in history has shown slightly more aptitude hitting left-handers over his career. In 2010 however, his splits are quite notable in an admittedly small sample size. Against lefties, Pudge has raked to the tune of a .383/.413/.500 line in 63 PA, while posting a pedestrian .263/.291/.346 triple slash against righties in 166 PA.

1B: Gaby Sanchez (34% owned) In his first year as a starter in Florida, the 27 year old first baseman is showing surprising hitting prowess against both lefties and righties. His .285/.347/.434 line against right-handers is nothing to sneeze at for a guy who you probably took a late-round flyer on or possibly even picked up off of waivers. Against lefties however, Sanchez has raked up a gaudy .350/.416/.563 line in 89 PA. He's good enough to start every day in my league, but against lefties he's been money.

2B: Clint Barnes (47% owned) With a .289/.337/.496 career line against lefties versus .247/.290/.384 against righties, The Rockies middle infielder has always displayed lefty-heavy splits. Seeing more playing time since Troy Tulowitzki has been on the shelf, Barnes has used the opportunity to display even more extreme splits this year. Against lefties Barnes has gone .304/.371/.430 in 89 PA while posting a pedestrian .238/.301/.386 against right-handers.

SS: Orlando Cabrera (45% owned) We may not find more extreme splits than those of the the Cincinnati Reds shortstop. Cabrera has been stellar against lefties - .344/.394/.427 in 105 PA and absolutely awful against righties - .207/.241/.291 in 272 PA. I wouldn't roster him with your team, but you have him in a very deep league, I'd pair him up with another SS capable of hitting righties well, such as Mike Aviles or Omar Infante - both of whom hit right handed but do their best work against hurlers coming from the same side.

3B: David Freese (20% owned) In his first full year in the majors, Mr. Freese was offering the Cardinals and fantasy owners alike surprisingly solid offensive numbers through the first three months of the season, before hitting the DL on June 28, with a deep ankle bruise. He's hit lefties at a .357/.416/.457 clip in 78 PA, while posting a respectable .271/.339/.382 against righties. You're likely to want more out of your hot corner, but paired with Chase Headley (who can only seem to hit right-handers), you have a potent 3B duo that can do damage.

OF: Cody Ross (41% owned) With an honorable mention to Rajai Davis - who's 27 steals makes him pretty much an every day player on most rosters even with his struggles against righties. Ross makes for a good platoon candidate, going .303/.354/.513 with three of his seven homers coming in 82 PA against southpaws. His power numbers are markedly improved facing lefties, as he's hit 40 career jacks against lefties and only 39 against righties in more than twice as many plate appearances.

OF: Dexter Fowler (13% owned) Since coming back to the big club from AAA, the Rockies outfielder has been a huge spark for the resurgent Rox. With only 773 PA in the majors since debuting with a cup of coffee in 2007, we'll use his entire MLB resume here to find that Fowler's noticeably more effective against lefties with a .314/.388/.462 line versus the paltry .221/.338/.354 he's posted against righties. At 24, Fowler's still young though and his recent success leads me to believe he'll close that gap enough to give him full-time playability in 12 team mixed leagues.

OF: Lastings Milledge (3% owned) Once thought to be a "can't miss" prospect, Milledge has just about disappeared off of the fantasy radar the past couple of years. In 2010 however, Milledge makes an appearance on my all splitsville team. While righties are still giving Lastings a hard time (.255/.297/.327 in 177 PA) the 25 year old has found his stroke against the southpaws going .318/.431/.518 in 102 PA. Notably, he's hit all three of his homers against lefties and perhaps even more telling he has a 17/11 BB/K ratio, a lot better than the lousy 8/36 BB/K split that he's posted against righties.

UTL: Jeff Francoeur (27% owned) Free swinging Frenchy has always hit lefties much better (.302/.345/.484 in 924 career PA versus an anemic .256/.297/.406 in 2341 PA against righties). With Carlos Beltran returning to Flushing to roam centerfield, it seems that the sizzling hot Angel Pagan will slide over to right and form a potent platoon with Francoeur. With the switch-hitting Pagan wielding a better bat from the left side of the plate, Francoeur will be relegated to taking his cuts against lefties, who he's pounded this season (.348/.403/.449 in 77 PA). In deeper leagues where he might rostered, this could be used to a fantasy owners' advantage by pairing him with a righty killers like Pagan or David DeJesus.

No this isn't an NL only team, that's just how it worked out. I assure you that when we see who's carrying the righty heavy splits, you'll see some A.L. players. Tomorrow, I'll flip around and swing from the other side in Part Two...

Cliff Lee Traded to the Texas Rangers

Cliff Lee has been traded within the American League but not to the New York Yankees as many were speculating. Instead, the Seattle Mariners have sent Cliff Lee, Mark Lowe, and cash to the Texas Rangers for first baseman Justin Smoak and prospect right-hander Blake Beavan, Frisco reliever Josh Lueke and second baseman-outfielder Matt Lawson.

Texas Stadium (or the Ballpark or whatever) is not an ideal place for any pitcher to call home. But Lee owners should not panic. Lee will be pitching in front of a solid defense team. Whatever he loses because of the park (not a lot I expect) should be more than compensated for in offensive support.

Smoak as a left-handed power hitter should be able to succeed in Seattle's pitching park. More on the prospects after I get to do a little research.

The Return of Carlos Beltran

Less than a week from today Carlos Beltran is expected to be on the field for the New York Mets. That is something that has been impossible to say with any conviction for most of the last two seasons. Beltran missed a large part of the 2009 season and the entire first half of the 2010 season basically preparing and then recovering from surgery on his right knee. On July 15th he is expected to return as center fielder of the New York Mets. But how much can he contribute?

Before the 2009 season, Beltran was considered one of the best players in baseball and one of the more consistent fantasy options. In NL-only leagues Beltran is probably already on someone's roster. In the shallower mixed leagues he may still be available. Beltran contributed in every batting category. I still expect Beltran to hit for average. He is one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball. He rarely swings at balls out of the strikezone and has an extremely good contact rate. He has a career .302 BABIP and a .283 career batting average.

Beltran has been one of the better base-stealers in the game. His success rate has always been one of the best in baseball. Although he has not stolen 40 bases (nor more than 25) in several years, he has been a consistent threat to steal 20 or so bases a season. This was true even last season before the injury when he had 11 stolen bases (1 cs) in 308 at-bats. I expect we will see Beltran attempt fewer stolen bases. Even if the knee is healthy I think the Mets will do everything in their power to keep him healthy which unfortunately includes taking away the green light.

Mets manager Jerry Manuel has suggested installing Beltran directly into the third spot in the lineup. He told ESPN.com that it depended on Beltran's energy level and also a bit on David Wright's production.

"I've thought about it a couple of different ways," the manager said. "If he appears fresh, I was thinking of having him probably third. If not, I'll probably bat him around fifth or sixth."

And asked about keeping NL RBI Leader, David Wright in the third spot.

"As long as he keeps doing that, we could bat Carlos right after him [at cleanup] and give David that switch hitter with experience behind him to make sure he stays hot," Manuel said. "Not that [incumbent No. 4 hitter] Ike Davis doesn't hit, but [Beltran] is an All-Star player -- a switch hitter, power both sides."

Before he succumbed to the knee injury, Beltran was enjoying a fairly good season marred only by a disturbing lack of power. In retrospect, it is not difficult to surmise that the knee was bothering him all along and playing with the injury was sapping his power. However, the 33-year old Beltran has also experienced a three-year decline in HR/FB (21.1, 17.1, 15.7, 10.8) one of the leading indicators of a player's power. It is very possible that with the knee finally fixed, there is a rebound in Beltran's power numbers. That seems likely to me. Beltran's batted ball ratios have remained steady. My guess is he bats at a 20-30 homer pace which should make most owners happy.

In Conclusion
Fantasy owners should scoop up Carlos Beltran if he is still available. If he is truly healthy he should hit for both average and power in the middle of a productive lineup. The Mets will protect him at first but within a few weeks I expect the kid gloves to be off.
For the balance of the season look for a line like this:

300 at-bats .290/.375/530 with 12-15 homers, 60 runs, 50 RBI, 3-5 stolen bases

What Beltran's Return Means for Angel Pagan and Jeff Francoeur
Manager Jerry Manuel has stated that Beltran will play two games and receive at least one day and perhaps two days off before starting again. This should ensure that both Angel Pagan and Jeff Francoeur receive plenty of at-bats. There has been a lot of debate on who will start when Beltran plays and who should start between Pagan and Francoeur.

When Beltran and Bay are both in the lineup, the most likely scenario is that Pagan plays against right-handers and Francoeur will start against left-handers. Obviously when Beltran is out of the lineup, they should both start. Francouer will probably pinch-hit and play late inning defense quite a bit when he is on the bench.

Chime In - Join the Conversation By Adding to the Comments Section
Are you targeting Beltran? Is my projection for the balance of the season too optimistic? Will he make the Mets better or disturb the chemistry of a team playing fairly well? Let us know what you think in the comments section!

Call To The Pen

Hi everyone, my name's Andre (aka 3FingersBrown) and I'm the newest contributor to Advanced Fantasy Baseball. Jon was kind enough to pick me up off of the waiver wire and give me an opportunity to share my baseball insights and observations with you and I hope you'll find what I have to say useful and entertaining.

I've been involved with fantasy baseball for six years but I've been playing baseball simulations since the mid-80's, be it through pen and paper games like Strat-o-matic or computer sims such as Micro League Baseball and Earl Weaver.

As long as I can remember baseball has been an obsession. From the moment I gripped a bat, to the day I opened the cover of "Moneyball," my passion for the game has only grown over the years. As I've gotten deeper into fantasy baseball and begun reading more advanced statistical analysis, I have begun to focus my writing on my favorite sport, ultimately starting my own baseball blog, Three True Outcomes.

Currently I'm playing in two leagues. One is a 5x5, 15-team mixed roto league, that counts OBP instead of AVG and features NFBC style rosters. My home league, which drafts live, is a 6x6 (standard 5x5 plus OBP and QS) 12-team mixed keeper league. Now in it's fourth year, I'm coming off a championship season in 2009 and I have my eyes set on a repeat performance.

I have a background in the film and television industry, where I've worked in a number of different roles over the years. I'm also a freelance writer with work in a variety of subjects such as music, film and pop-culture essays, commercial copy and screen-writing. One of the die-hard Flushing Faithful, I'm holding out hope that this is the year that the Mets finally return to championship glory after a 24 year drought.

I'll be posting on a number of different baseball-related topics such as in-depth player profiles, prospects, advanced statistical analysis, fantasy strategy and more. With all that said, I'm looking forward to continuing the endless narrative that our great American pastime provides - so lets Play ball!

First-Half Offensive MVPs, Goats and Waiver Wire Studs

I know Jon posted his fantasy all-stars yesterday, but I have been working on this for a few days now, so please forgive me if there is a little bit of repetition here. I will go by league and position pointing out the MVP, Goat and Waiver Wire stud (someone who went undrafted according to average draft position in ESPN leagues) with a very brief description of my reasoning. For outfielders, I will pick two of each. Let’s get some good discussion going on this!

Catcher
AL MVP: Victor Martinez – The lack of depth at catcher really shines through in the AL. Joe Mauer is hitting a great .301, but has managed just 4 HR this season, so the honor falls to Martinez, who definitely struggled mightily out of the gate, but has turned things around in the last couple months.
NL MVP: Miguel Olivo – Not only is Olivo the MVP on the power of a .311 average with 11 HR, but he is also my pick for WW Stud at the position in the NL. He was largely undrafted in ESPN leagues this season (he was the 16th choice among catchers).
AL Goat: A.J. Pierzynski – The disaster of a season for the former all-star catcher seemed to be turning around in early June, but he has fallen back into a slump and his batting average sits at .237. He is 1-for-15 in July so far.
NL Goat: Bengie Molina – Since Bengie was just traded to the AL last week, I will still count him as a NLer for this article’s purposes. Molina looks like he has turned the corner (in a negative way) and has struggled to a .255/.310/.325 mark with just 3 HR this season. This is a guy who belted 20 HR last year!
AL WW Stud: John Buck – Wasn’t drafted at all this season pretty much anywhere and stands sixth overall in my points league.
NL WW Stud: Olivo (see above)

First Base
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera – Beast. Total, unadulterated B-E-A-S-T. He is by far and away the points leader on the season.
NL MVP: Joey Votto – Votto edges out Albert Pujols by virtue of having one more HR and a few points higher batting average on the day I wrote this. Of course it could go either way.
AL Goat: Chris Davis – If you drafted him (he went 153rd overall on average in ESPN leagues), you likely don’t have him anymore. He’s the dictionary definition of the term BUST.
NL Goat: Todd Helton – Hey, this guy has treated us to years and years of terrific production. Age has just seemed to catch up to him now, as he is dealing right now with a gimpy back and hammy to go with a career-low .246 BA.
AL WW Stud – There really haven’t been any players who were truly “undrafted” that have made a huge impact; however, with a few more good games this month, Russell Branyan would take the honor – I’m just not ready to hand it over yet.
NL WW Stud: Aubrey Huff – Huff has as many points as Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder this season. For someone who started the year on every waiver wire, that’s amazing. Yes, I know he plays mostly OF now, but he qualifies at 1B everywhere.

Second Base
AL MVP: Robinson Cano – Cano is the easy choice here – not only is he blowing away everybody in the league in scoring, but his best competition, Dustin Pedroia, is injured right now.
NL MVP: Martin Prado – A pair of HR last night raised Prado’s SLG% to an even .500. I thought this guy was going to be a slap hitter! A lack of stolen bases is distressing, but his numbers across the board have been pretty astounding. Oh yeah, he was the 15th second baseman taken on average in ESPN leagues.
AL Goat: Aaron Hill – This guy is making me pull my own hair out. He hasn’t been able to get himself over the Mendoza Line for more than a couple days all season long. Hill’s draft-day price (8th second baseman taken, on average) makes him one of the biggest busts on this list. Apologies to Brian Roberts, I know you deserve to be here too!
NL Goat: Chase Utley – Not many choices on the NL side, so considering his average draft position (first 2B taken with the 6th overall pick on average), I will call him the goat. The fact that he will miss all of July and most of August will have many owners agreeing.
AL WW Stud: Alberto Callaspo – He has quietly been having an above-average season so far, with 8 HR and a .279 average.
NL WW Stud: Juan Uribe – Freddy Sanchez and Edgar Renteria’s injuries helped propel Uribe to 12 HR and 46 RBI this season. Definitely above replacement value.

Third Base
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez – You could make a case for Evan Longoria – heck, even Michael Young, but ARod is sitting in the clubhouse with the most RBI (67) among all Major League third basemen. And he started slow!
NL MVP: David Wright – He has gone ahead and officially proven that last year’s power outage was a total aberration.
AL Goat: Chone Figgins – Apologies to Gordon Beckham, but Figgins went 9th overall among third basemen on draft day. He has rewarded his owners with a .233/.330/.272 mark. Even 23 steals can’t make up for that.
NL Goat: Aramis Ramirez – Taken 8th overall among third basemen on draft day, holy cow Ramirez has been AWFUL! He is only 32 years old, but struggled to a .189/.250/.342 mark – and that was before he started getting injured. He and Aaron Hill are competing hard for bust of the season.
AL WW Stud: Jose Bautista – Face it, nobody could have predicted that Bautista would be leading Major League Baseball with 22 HR on July 8! NOBODY! And just about everyone who owns him snagged him off waivers.
NL WW Stud: Scott Rolen – Troy Glaus also deserves some recognition, but Rolen went undrafted according to ESPN and has scored more in my points league than Ryan Zimmerman, Mark Reynolds and Adrian Beltre. Not sure many of us were predicting the .296/.362/.560 line he is putting up.

Shortstop
AL MVP: Derek Jeter – He is a little behind his 2009 numbers, but Jeter is pretty much blowing the rest of the AL away (not that hard to do at shortstop) with 8 HR, 40 RBI and a .277/.344/.398 line. His only AL competition would be my WW Stud below…
NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez – Hard to make the call for anyone else. Even if a .296 average isn’t up to his usual lofty standards, we will all take the 13 HR and 16 SB.
AL Goat: J.J. Hardy – The move to the AL and a few injuries have derailed his season. Hey, he never really hit for average in Milwaukee, but at least he was driving in runs with the long ball. These days, he boasts a whopping 3 HR and 13 (yeah, 13!) RBI in 149 at-bats this season.
NL Goat: Jimmy Rollins – It’s hard to penalize a guy for being injured, but considering that he was the fourth SS taken off the board and has managed just 102 at-bats this season, I think it’s safe to call him a bust for now. Let’s see if he can salvage something in the second half.
AL WW Stud: Alex Gonzalez – Can you tell that Toronto is having an above-average season? Alex is the third of the Blue Jays’ WW Studs, and a humongous April (7 HR) has powered him to be the fourth-highest scorer among all SS in my points league.
NL WW Stud: Cristian Guzman – Not many choices on the NL side, but Guzman has proven his versatility – rotating between second base and SS to post a .297 average with 38 runs scored. He has outperformed teammate Ian Desmond, who was projected to put up better numbers.

Outfielders
AL MVPs: Josh Hamilton and Carl Crawford – Hamilton has been other-worldly good and is second to only Miguel Cabrera in scoring this season (in points leagues). Crawford has been nearly as devastating and is the only non-specialty player (such as Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn) with more than 25 steals this season. Of the five players with 25 or more steals, Crawford has the same amount of HR as the other 4 combined. Apologies definitely go to Vladimir Guerrero (even though he is basically a DH, he was the 152nd player taken overall on average and has been absolutely dominant this season – wow the Angels made a huge mistake).
NL MVPs: Adam Dunn and Carlos Gonzalez – The NL hasn’t been anywhere near as strong as the AL among outfielders. Dunn ranks behind five AL Outfielders. Dunn gets the nod because he has somehow managed to post a .280/.367/.572 line despite an already death-defying 100 strikeouts. Gonzalez (.307/.339/.514) has been solid all season long, and he has 15 HR and 12 SB to his credit. You should see some of the names that were drafted ahead of him – from Curtis Granderson to Shane Victorino to Adam Jones to Raul Ibanez (and the list goes on) – he has outperformed them all.
AL Goats: Jacoby Ellsbury and Grady Sizemore – Another pair of injury casualties, Ellsbury has only managed 44 at-bats this season due to a variety of maladies. Sizemore was horrible LONG BEFORE he had the knee surgery that ended his season. These guys went 6th and 8th overall among all outfielders on draft day – OUCH!
NL Goats: Carlos Lee and Nate McLouth – Not nearly as egregious as the two guys above, still Carlos Lee has fallen off the planet and can’t seem to get his average above .230. McLouth started slow and continued to be slow until the Braves (mercifully) put him on the DL in early June with mysterious “concussion-like symptoms.” Up to that point, he was batting .176 with 14 RBI – that’s a long way from his Pittsburgh glory days.
AL WW Studs: Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson – You know the Tigers must be having a good season if two of their three OF made the WW Stud list! You may not have heard of the rookie Boesch before, but unless you have been living under a rock, you know who he is now. Boesch ranks 24th in RBI among all OF – he also has fewer at-bats than anyone in the top 30 because he was called up on April 24! This is a guy who was completely unowned in April and is 100% owned today – now that’s some good ROI. Jackson may have slumped in late May, but he is again firing on all cylinders and is batting .306 with 50 runs scored and 13 steals.
NL WW Studs: Corey Hart and Jonny Gomes – Full disclosure, I had to stretch the “undrafted” part of my criteria to include Hart, although his average draft position was 232.7 on ESPN (blame the lack of great options in this category, OK?). After an excruciatingly slow start, Hart exploded for 10 HR in the month of May and maintained his good play in June. Gomes wasn’t supposed to have a full-time gig on draft day, but he has jumped on his chance for increased playing time and has responded with a .280/.333/.473 mark in just 264 at-bats this season.

The Fantasy League All-Star Teams

As I was putting this together I began to wonder. Do fantasy owners get anything out of their players being voted to All-Star teams? I have to admit I get a sort of cheap thrill from it. It feels like a mild validation, especially when the younger guys on my keeper league teams are voted in. I would love to hear your opinions on this in the comments section below.

The criteria I used to put these together involved more than just a list of the best players. It also considered the players that came at a discount or seemed to arise out of nowhere to have great value in the first half. Let me know if you agree with my choices or if you think I'm a blithering idiot.

American League Fantasy All-Stars

C Victor Martinez, Boston Red Sox
C John Jaso, Tampa Bay Rays

1B Justin Mourneau, Minnesota Twins
3B Adrian Beltre, Boston Red Sox
CR Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

2B Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
SS Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
MI Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals

OF Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
OF Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays
OF Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers
OF Brennan Boesch, Detroit Tigers
OF Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

DH Vladimir Guerrero, Texas Rangers

SP Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners
SP Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
SP Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
SP David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
SP Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

P Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays
P Joaquin Benoit, Tampa Bay Rays

RP Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
RP Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals

National League Fantasy All-Stars

C Geovanny Sota, Chicago Cubs
C Miguel Olivo, Colorado Rockies

1B Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
3B Scott Rolen, Cincinnati Reds
CR Aubrey Huff, San Francisco Giants

2B Kelly Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks
SS Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers
MI Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins

OF Josh Willingham, Washington Nationals
OF Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
OF Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals
OF Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
OF Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates

UTL David Wright, New York Mets

SP Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins
SP Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies
SP Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
SP Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies
SP Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals

P Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
P Sean Marshall, Chicago Cubs

RP Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
RP Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers

Time for you to Chime In
Who are your all-stars? Who has been essential to your fantasy team that isn't listed above. Are All-Star posts useless on Fantasy Sites? I wanna hear it from you in the comment section.

Top 5 All-Star Game Snubs

Let's face it, the fans will never help in getting this right, but at least it gives us something to talk and write about. That said, here are my top 5 all-star snubs. Note that this was written before fan voting ended for the "final roster spot," so those guys will be marked with an asterisk, for those of you who want to vote.

1. Jered Weaver -- The AL is loaded with starting pitching this year on the all-star team, but Weaver currently ranks No. 8 among all starting pitchers in the majors in my points-based fantasy league. Why? Because he just about never turns in a poor performance, and oh yeah....he is LEADING THE MAJORS in strikeouts (124)! Not enough to make the All-Star team you say? Well how about a 2.82 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP? Still not enough? He has 14 quality starts in 17 appearances this season. More you ask? Well, he has 8 wins too for a team in the thick of a division hunt. And the best part? You can't vote for him to make the final roster spot.

2. Heath Bell* -- I am flabbergasted. Taking into account that every team needs a representative on the All-Star team, the powers that be chose Adrian Gonzalez for the Padres. That doesn't seem so bad until you take a look at the next name on this list -- and then you realize that Heath Bell is and has been the best relief pitcher in all of baseball this year. That's right -- the best reliever in baseball, and the numbers back me up. He leads the majors in saves with 23. Among the top 10 players in saves this season, Bell is No. 2 in ERA (behind Rafael Soriano), No. 2 in strikeouts (behind K-Rod), and No. 1 in vulture wins with 4. If you took Bell on the team and eliminated Adrian, it might give you room for...

3. Joey Votto* -- I understand that first base is a completely stacked position this season, but still, Votto is the MVP candidate on a surging Reds squad, and there is no way he should be left off the team. They selected the top 10 RBI men in baseball and left off number 11 (Paul Konerko) and 12 (Votto) -- and Votto has a better batting average (.312) than all but three of the top 10. Let's compare him to Adrian...Votto has more hits, more HR, more RBI, more runs scored and a better batting average. Gonzalez has fewer strikeouts, and they are tied in walks. Enough said.

4. Paul Konerko* -- The AL version of the Votto situation -- the situation, not the player. This was a very tough choice between Konerko and Kevin Youkilis. First base is stacked in the AL too, and there is no case that can be made for Konerko (or Youkilis) going in ahead of Justin Morneau or Miguel Cabrera. That said, Paulie is 11th in the majors in RBI, and has the same amount of HR as Cabrera, Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. And if you think he got snubbed because he can't hit for average, you are wrong there as well, because he is hitting .296. Konerko's edge in HR and RBI numbers gave him the nod over Youkilis for me, and either player's numbers completely trump those of second-team All-Star DH David Ortiz, for example.

5. Jaime Garcia -- Garcia has a better ERA (2.099) than any starting pitcher not named Josh Johnson. He has as many wins as Johnson and fellow All-Stars Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum and Yovani Gallardo. This is the penalty of being a rookie these days...just ask Jason Heyward! But seriously, Garcia has been an awesome surprise and a waiver-wire stud this season, and he deserves some recognition. Of his 16 starts this season, 13 of them were quality starts.

Just so you are aware, these are the other guys you can vote in for the final roster spot: Kevin Youkilis, Nick Swisher, Delmon Young and Michael Young in the AL; and Carlos Gonzalez, Billy Wagner and Ryan Zimmerman in the NL.

Go ahead and make your case for anyone I didn't include in the comments section!

NSFW But its a holiday anyway

It is the Fourth of July weekend and no one is watching. So we'll take a brief detour from Fantasy Baseball to witness the greatest movie insults of all time. With a hat tip to Scott of Go To the Story.com

Orioles Prospect Josh Bell Gets the Call

Third baseman Josh Bell has been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk and will be activated by the Orioles in time for Thursday night's game. He will bat seventh and man third base. The Orioles needed a bat with Luke Scott being placed on the disabled list with a strained hamstring.

I like Bell a lot as a prospect and believe he will eventually be a productive major league player. However, he was not exactly tearing up Triple-A. He was batting .266 for Norfolk with 10 homers and 44 RBIs in 74 games this season. He should be owned in all AL-only leagues and large mixed leagues with deep rosters should be aware.

This is what I wrote about Bell before the 2010 season started:

Josh Bell became an Oriole via the Los Angeles Dodgers by being the primary return in the George Sherrill trade. There is a strong possibility that he begins the 2010 season as the starting third baseman. Oddly, it seems his development as a switch hitter is going to be a major factor in the decision. Bell is extremely good from the left side of the plate facing right-handed pitchers. According to minorleaguesplits.com, Josh Bell hit .340 with 19 homers in 315 at-bats as a left-handed hitter, and .198 with one homer in 131 at-bats as a right-handed hitter in 2009. Most reports say his mechanics are fine from both sides of the plate though ESPN’s Jason Grey has said he can “get a little big” swinging from his heels on the right-handed side.

There are those that believe that Bell should abandon switch-hitting and become a left-handed batter. This is the possibility most likely to send Bell to the minors (assuming he has a strong spring and the Orioles do not make a huge move to fill the position). In this scenario, the Orioles would be unlikely to allow Bell to adjust to seeing left-handed pitching from the left side in the majors. Fortunately, those closest to the Orioles believe they are happy with Bell as he is and want to see him continue to switch hit. The belief there (and here) is that Bell can develop enough as a hitter from the right side to be an asset.

Josh Bell just became more dangerous as the season and the post season passed. He was a monster in the AFL. He posted an Isolated Power of .281 (for reference Alex Rodriguez has a career ISO of .271) after the trade, during 114 at-bats at double-A for the Orioles. On the season, he slashed .297/.370/.538 with 35 doubles, 2 triples, 20 homeruns. He also received a very favorable projection from theThe Bill James Handbook 2010. He probably will not be much of a sleeper come draft season but he is an incredibly talented prospect that is worthy of fantasy attention even as a rookie.

Searching for a Pitching Upgrade?

Hi Jon

Looking to improve my pitching and capitalize on what I think is a buy-low / sell-high.

I deal:
Carl Crawford, Billy Butler, Scott Baker and Carlos Marmol

I get:
Justin Upton, Juan Pierre, Dan Haren and Huston Street.

I'm thinking I net even on steals, saves and Ks and am sacrificing RBI and Average for improved pitching ratios and upside potential in both Upton and Haren.

What do you think?

I think we should start by looking at the stats of the players involved.

Carl Crawford - .310/.373/.488, with seven homers, 57 runs, 38 RBI and 27 stolen bases

Crawford seems to be past his shoulder problems. He hit .296/.380/.481 with 12 stolen bases in June. The last seven days he has hit .364/.364/.455 so he doesn't seem to be slowing down at all.

Billy Butler - .322/.377/.480, with 8 homers, 40 runs, 42 RBI and zero stolen bases

Billy Butler is having a nice season. He might be slower to develop the power we'd like to see out of our first basemen but there is very little to complain about here. For June he is batting .284/.333/.461 and .304/.385/.478 the lat seven days.

Scott Baker - 4.97 ERA/4.07 FIP/3.81 xFIP with six wins, 7.78 K9, 1.78 BB9, and 1.41 HR9

June has not been kind to Scott Baker. But most of the problem as illustrated by his xFIP has been poor luck. With a regression closer to his FIP seeming likely, I think he will have an excellent second half.

Carlos Marmol - 2.27 ERA/2.32 FIP/ 2.84 xFIP with two wins, 14 saves, 16.65 K9, 6.31 BB9 0.25 HR9

Marmol isn't always great in non-save situations. The Cubs losing ways don't help. However, Marmol has provided excellent numbers and a decent save total. He has a pretty firm grip on the closer role at this point.

Now, the return package:

Justin Upton - .269/.355/.472 with 14 homers, 48 runs, 39 RBI, 11 stolen bases

Upton began the season rather slow but has hit .312/.423/.548 with six homers and three stolen bases in June. Crawford has been better than him thus far but if Upton keeps up his current pace he will have been the better player at the end of the season.

Juan Pierre - .249/.317/ .279 with zero homers, 39 runs, 13 RBI and 29 stolen bases

Juan Pierre is not a great hitter. However he has value to fantasy teams because the White Sox let him run wild. Unfortunately he provides zero power and not much run production. I would not expect his numbers to improve but they shouldn't decline much either.

Dan Haren - 4.56 ERA/3.90 FIP/3.43 xFIP with seven wins, 8.90 K9, 1.70 BB9, 1.47 HR9

Haren has not been as bad as Baker but they both have had rotten luck. This is especially surprising in the year of the pitcher. Haren has not been particularly great of late. He may be an upgrade over Baker but not a tremendous one.

Huston Street - his stats are irrelevant at this point

Street has just returned to the Rockies active roster after spending most of the season on the disabled list. I can ignore my code against trading for pitchers recently coming off the disabled list (even ones with shoulder injuries and a lot of bad injury history). However, I still have to point out that despite achieving his first save, manager Jim Tracy is insisting that the closer-by-committee is still in effect. This is not to say he won't re-earn the job, just that he does not yet have it secured.

In Conclusion
Whew...so. Our reader is looking for a pitching upgrade. There is probably one here, assuming Street stays healthy and becomes the closer again. Not an assumption I would make, but it is a fair possibility. It is a risk but one that is (as the reader surmised) at the cost of batting average, probably a few homers and some RBI production. I believe he'll actually gain in steals. But the actual difference in pitching is almost nothing. For perhaps a few points of ERA, you lose quite a bit if nothing changes.

The entire trade seems to hinge on Dan Haren pitching like the top ten pitcher he was expected to be. He has yet to show much of that Haren to this point. And although I don't really believe in labeling players first or second half players, Haren is definitely more of the later. Check out his last three years of stats:

By Day/Month	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
April	2.10	9	6	0	0	17	17	1	111.2	83	35	26	9	21	89	.203
May	3.07	6	4	0	0	16	16	0	111.1	88	38	38	11	19	103	.214
June	1.80	9	1	0	0	17	17	1	120.1	77	26	24	11	23	110	.180
July	2.77	10	3	0	0	16	16	1	107.1	99	39	33	6	23	99	.236
August	4.97	7	6	0	0	17	17	0	108.2	132	64	60	21	19	112	.295
September	4.38	4	6	0	0	16	16	1	102.2	122	53	50	11	27	101	.298
October	7.50	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	6.0	9	5	5	1	1	7	.346
Pre All-Star	2.34	27	13	0	0	56	56	3	385.0	284	115	100	33	70	342	.202
Post All-Star	4.33	18	14	0	0	44	44	1	283.0	326	145	136	37	63	279	.286

I would save my trade ammo for a more certain upgrade. I think the risk that nothing is gained in the desired areas is too strong in this deal. I would pass and look to acquire a pitcher performing better right now. Perhaps one of these guys:

Name	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	E-F	xFIP
Francisco Liriano	Twins	9.67	2.46	3.93	0.18	.259	1.26	.355	71.9 %	3.47	2.20	1.27	3.01
Cliff Lee	Mariners	7.34	0.47	15.60	0.47	.235	0.92	.289	71.6 %	2.45	2.34	0.10	3.31
Josh Johnson	Marlins	8.92	2.25	3.96	0.33	.202	0.96	.270	81.9 %	1.83	2.47	-0.64	3.17
Roy Halladay	Phillies	7.75	1.18	6.59	0.69	.257	1.11	.315	80.3 %	2.42	2.85	-0.43	3.04
Tim Lincecum	Giants	10.16	3.65	2.79	0.52	.231	1.25	.319	75.9 %	3.13	2.88	0.25	3.22
Jered Weaver	Angels	10.45	2.12	4.92	0.97	.233	1.09	.311	75.3 %	3.01	2.93	0.08	3.22
Yovani Gallardo	Brewers	9.91	3.80	2.61	0.50	.223	1.23	.304	79.2 %	2.56	2.97	-0.41	3.46
Jon Lester	Red Sox	9.34	3.45	2.71	0.42	.205	1.11	.277	76.5 %	2.86	3.02	-0.16	3.44
Ubaldo Jimenez	Rockies	8.12	3.19	2.55	0.40	.199	1.05	.255	86.2 %	1.83	3.08	-1.24	3.68
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	8.60	2.41	3.56	0.68	.213	1.03	.269	81.3 %	2.34	3.11	-0.77	3.28

Any other opinions on this deal out there? Feel free to leave your questions, comments or even complaints in the comment section.

Filling Chase Utley's Shoes

I received the following e-mail this morning:

5X5 H2H league (OBP instead of Avg). My free agent choices are M.Tejada, Jose Lopez, Beckham, Pennington, Peralta, or S. Rodriguez. Obviously Utley is my MI (behind Kinsler/Rollins).

Whaddya think?
Big Mike

Tough decision. At least you have a mix of possibilities. You have the fading veteran in Tejada. The underachieving veteran in Lopez. The struggling phenom in Beckham. The slap-hitting speedster in Pennington, the disappointing Peralta, and the underutilized youngster in Sean Rodriguez.

Part of the decision has to be based on how your team is doing and what your category needs are.

Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles - Tejada no longer provides much power. He hits for a fairly empty average thanks to being part of the underachieving Orioles lineup. In your league he is nearly worthless with just a .313 OBP.

Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners - Lopez probably has more upside than Tejada at this point but his stats are even worse. He has a slash line of .244/.269/.337 and is showing zero power. Definitely pass.

Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox - Beckham is the most promising of the players on this list. He was expected to be a force in Chicago but has slumped through most of the season. He is swinging at more pitches out of the zone than he did in his rookie season. However, his contact rates are still pretty good and there is definitely a degree of bad luck. Unfortunately he does not walk much. There have been some signs of life this week, he hit his first homer in quite some time and seems to be coming around. If you can afford to embrace some risk this might be a good place to go.

Cliff Pennington, Oakland Athletics - Pennington is a mediocre hitter but he steals bases and walks enough to justify his reputation as a leadoff hitter. He has a slash of .247/.323/.359 and like the others has displayed little power. But mediocre is better than lousy and that makes him a real possibility.

Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians - Peralta showed some promise a few years ago but seemed to lose it when he was moved off shortstop. Perhaps his defensive position is like Sampson's hair. Still, he has more powers than the others have shown (though nothing to go crazy about). He's a possibility if we're desperate for any homeruns we can get.

Sean Rodriguez, Tampa Bay Rays - Rodriguez hasn't been that great overall but has been hot in June. Hitting .292 with four home runs and three stolen bases as of the 26th. His potential is second only to Beckham on this list. I have a hunch he'd have been better playing everyday than he is sharing a job, but that's just a hunch. He's the hot hand.

So here are your options:

Shoot for the Stars - Gordon Beckham who has shown signs of life lately.

Take the stolen bases and the best OBP you can get - Cliff Pennington, probably the safest bet.

Desperate for Power - Jhonny Peralta, hope he gets back what he lost in the second half.

Play the hot hand - Sean Rodriguez, hope he keeps it up.

I tend to be an embrace risk type of fantasy owner and would grab Beckham. Play it safe types should probably grab Pennington. If you believe whoever you pick up is short term, Rodriguez is probably the one.

Good luck.

Hot Prospects: Mike Minor and Aroldis Chapman

NBC Sports is reporting that the Braves are promoting left-hander Mike Minor to Triple-A Gwinnett after dominating Double-A batters with 109 strikeouts in just 87 innings. Minor is a candidate for a second half call-up if the Braves need the arm. However, they could try to restrict his inning count in just his second professional season.

From Jason Grey

"The No. 7 overall pick in the 2009 draft is a relatively polished four-pitch southpaw (despite his first-inning blowup in the Rising Stars game). He sits at 90-92 mph but showed he could dial it up to 94 when needed. He had good fade on his change, and his curveball was inconsistent but good at times. He needs to improve his fringy slider, but he's another pitcher who could move very quickly but doesn't have a huge ceiling."

They also have a report on Aroldis Chapman's progress in his transition (at least temporarily) into a reliever.

"Excellent," GM Walt Jocketty said when asked how Chapman was doing as a reliever. "His last time out [on Saturday], he pitched one inning and faced two left-handed hitters and struck them out. He got the right-hander out. In that one performance, he was dominating."

Chapman has allowed one run over three innings in two relief appearances with Triple-A Louisville, striking out five and walking one. The Cuban fireballer was scheduled to work two innings behind the rehabbing Edinson Volquez on Tuesday night.

Remember Mark Prior? Don't Call It a Comeback.

Mark Prior was once the man. He was a stud starter for the Chicago Cubs and helped propel them to one of their best seasons in decades. He was coveted by fantasy owners everywhere. But Dusty Baker was his manager, thus his arm was destined to fall off, and it pretty much did.

From Fox Sports:
Right-handed pitcher Mark Prior, who came out of USC with a hype along the lines of Stephen Strasburg, is still trying to piece his injury-plagued career back together.

Prior, 29, will work out for major league clubs at USC on Wednesday. Prior, who has not pitched in the big leagues since going 1-6 in nine games with the Cubs in 2006, has been working with USC pitching coach Tom House, the former big-league pitching coach who has worked with Prior since his high school days in San Diego.

Most major league teams are expected to have a scout in attendance.
Prior was the second player selected in the 2001 draft, Minnesota opting for high school catcher Joe Mauer, and then Twins general manager Terry Ryan being criticized at the time for passing on a pitcher that many claimed was ready to step directly into a big-league rotation.

Prior did receive a then-record $10.5 million signing bonus, and appeared to validate the Cubs decision in 2003, his first full big-league season, when he was 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA. Prior, however, developed shoulder problems that required surgery after that season, and has made only 57 big league starts since.

— Tracy Ringolsby

Prior seems a long way from being an effective pitcher for fantasy owners. However, you never know. Stranger things have happened than a former stud pitcher regaining some semblance of effectiveness again. He is worth watching but don't act too rashly.