The 2011 Fantasy Baseball All Sleeper Teams

The idea of sleepers is an out-dated one. However, it is a tremendous amount of fun for fantasy
owners to come up with players that seem under-rated based on a wide variety of circumstances. If you split those collectively thought as sleepers into groups based on what makes them interesting, you might come up with teams like these.

Easy Like Apple Pie

C Mike Napoli - He is finally with a team that appreciates his skills but be careful not to over estimate his playing time. He'll be the primary DH against left-handers (and he'll rock at that) but at-bats against righties could be tough to come by on a crowded Rangers roster.

C Matt Wieters - So few catchers have ever been dominate offensive players at Wieter's age that calling him a sleeper seems unfair. Like calling a teenager a potential adult, if you just wait a few years he'll probably get there.

1B Mitch Moreland - He's young but he's a fairly disciplined hitter that should hit for both average and power in the middle of a great lineup in a great park for hitters. Plus he won't cost nearly as much as the equivalent hitter with more experience. Would you rather have a $12 Moreland or a $23 Derrek Lee?

3B Pablo Sandoval - His confidence is soaring, he's in the best shape of his life and his new condition should guarantee that doesn't get benched for poor defense again.

CR Jerry Sands - He won't begin the season with the team but he's too much the powerful hitter the Dodgers need to stay in the minors the entire season. I'm betting he's up in May.

2B Sean Rodriguez - He does a little of everything, and the price is right to gamble on what he does with career high at-bats. Twenty homers and a few steals would fit nicely on my teams.

SS Jose Reyes - He's healthy again, he's playing for a new contract with a manager who values him for what he does, rather than what he might do. That is to say watch him steal 70 bases in 2011.

MI Gordon Beckham - His potential is just too high to give up on. Plus, the White Sox rushed him a bit anyway, so the slump was something not very difficult to fortell.

OF Jason Heyward - If he stays on the field (and healthy while doing so) for 550-600 at-bats, he's a potential 2011 MVP.

OF Mike Stanton - This is your next National League Homerun King. If you're worried that he won't hit for average you haven't been watching closely enough.

OF Dexter Fowler - He has all the tools and the developing skills to explode on the scene a lot like teammate Carlos Gonzalez did in 2010. Now he needs a cool nickname, De-Fowl? De-Ler? Dexter is a serial killer to me now...

OF Jay Bruce - Bruce hit .338/.418/.700 during August-October. Bruce hit 15 HR in his final 35 games. Bruce is coming around.

UTL Manny Ramirez - With Manny it is all about health and motivation. He seems motivated to keep his career going. He the opportunity, now he just needs to go do it. Are you really betting against him?

SP Shawn Marcum - He proved last season that he was fully recovered from elbow surgery. This season he gets not only the bump from moving from the American League to the National League, but a bump from the AL-East to the NL-Central. He is my pitcher to get in NL-only Leagues this season.

Or he was, until this came up:

Shaun Marcum left his start on Wednesday because of shoulder tightness, and while Marcum downplayed what he felt, his manager sounds concerned. From Andrew Gruman's story: "There is definitely concern there," said [Ron] Roenicke. "His neck bothered him the last couple of days and when he went out there today, he thought it was the neck. I don't know if he was overcompensating, I don't know. We're in a tough spot if he's down for a while." One evaluator who saw Marcum's start on Thursday clocked his fastball at 86 mph. Not a good sign. Marcum has never been a power pitcher, but what concerns evaluators who have seen him this spring, beyond the velocity, is the quality of his fastball. Hopefully for the Brewers and for Marcum, he'll get better as he goes along.

SP Matt Garza - Garza gets the same bumps as Marcum but a lot of analysts seem to feel he'll be hurt by Wrigley Field (at least the ones that don't just think he's overrated do). I think what he gains in the switch (like facing pitchers instead of David Ortiz, Adam Lind, Jorge Posada and Vladimir Guerrero) will more than make up for a few extra homers allowed due to park factors.

SP Edison Volquez - The ace the Reds are looking for isn't Homer Bailey or even Aroldis Chapman. What you're hoping is that your league mates pay too much attention his control numbers in 2010. We know his control is better than that, he had quite a bit of bad luck, the statistical kind and the regular kind. I think he's ready to step up big time with a contending team at his back.

SP Jonathan Sanchez - Slow and steady progress isn't as exciting as the big splash but you can often get it cheaper. He's definitely going to pitch better in 2011, but he may not be as fortunate with his BABIP, so be cautious in bidding.

SP Phil Hughes - All he needs is to get his confidence back with his change-up and he becomes a top 20 pitcher without a single doubt. That's the pitch he's been working on all Spring Training. It's gonna happen.

SP Daniel Hudson - He had an amazing second half, Hudson may not be an "ace" but he is damn good. He and Mr. Kennedy will put the D'backs back in contention.

RP Frank Francisco - The favorite for saves in Toronto. His only problem has been staying healthy. He does not have the platoon problems that the other candidates for the job have.

RP J.J. Putz - The new closer in Arizona. Don't let the injuries and non-closer season get you down on Putz. He's as good as they come when healthy.

RP Drew Storen - This great young pitcher surrounded by solid bullpen talent should be able to thrive as the Nationals new closer. He isn't being drafted very high so he makes a great later rounds saves grab. Forget his spring numbers, he'll be fine.

An Apple a Day

C Jarod Saltalamaccia - Yes he has had his struggles but most of them were health related. He has his confidence back and a major opportunity. He's going to smash this season if he stays on the field.

C Russell Martin - He looks healthy so far. That doesn't necessarily mean his bat will bounce back but if he can return to hitting for average even with reduced power, he'll be one of the better catchers in the American League.

1B Derrek Lee - If the back isn't cranky,and the hand problem isn't serious, Lee is going to love Camden Yards which gives a giant homer assist to right-handed batters. That boost should help minimize the effects of aging on this classy slugger.

3B Chipper Jones - Some injury prone guys you just give up on drafting. But Chipper has always been different. He wants to contribute so bad and is still quite a hitter when healthy. It makes you wish the Braves were in the American League.

CR Lance Berkman - He is in better shape but the outfield will still be a challenge for him at this point.But as long as his legs are solid, I expect to see a resurgence in his bat.

2B Brian Roberts - Back problems are scary. When I originally placed him on this list it looked like he was coming into the season strong. Now I'm a bit more worried but I'll still take him his present discount.

SS Jose Reyes - He's healthy again, he's playing for a new contract with a manager who values him for what he does, rather than what he might do. That is to say watch him steal 70 bases in 2011.

MI J.J. Hardy - Hardy is not an ideal choice in H2H leagues because he is as streaky as they come. But with health and a favorable new park come 20 homers.

OF Grady Sizemore - You cannot risk drafting him as a top 30 outfielder as some have been doing. But if you get him in the pick 100-120 area I think you'll be happy with the return even if it isn't quite the long dreamed of 30/30 season.

OF Carlos Beltran - I thought he was comingback healthy this season but he is not bouncing back quite as well as hoped. Part of it is probably the Mets and Beltran being cautious. But at some point he needs to prove he can play, then my early Beltran picks in mock drafts will be justified. (Are you watching Justified on FX? A great show.)

OF Jacoby Ellsbury - A potential 70 steal guy, before the injuries. He has looked fantastic this spring.

OF Justin Upton - He was held back by a sore shoulder for most of the 2010 season. With health and good fortune I see an explosion coming, similar to Ken Griffey, Junior, after his 1992 season. Look it up, kids.

UTL Mark DeRosa - He should play multiple positions for the Giants this season. He has a way to go before he has proven he can return to his former production levels but at his ADP, I don't think it will be a problem.

SP Brandon Webb - He won't start the season with his former Cy Young form completely intact. He is healthy, but re-gaining his mechanics will take a while. He is best drafted if you have the ability to reserve him in April and May while he gets his mojo back.

SP Jordan Zimmerman - Tommy John Surgery is not quite the problem it used to be for pitchers (and their fantasy owners). Players used to need 18-24 months to fully recover both physically and to re-gain effectiveness. That has been trending closer to 12-14 months of late.

SP Jake Peavy - He sure looks healthy to me this Spring Training. I've cautioned against high expectations with Peavy but he should remain a top American League starting pitcher.

SP Josh Beckett - Josh gives owners a lot to think about. I still have a mild fear that he remains the keeper of a secret injury. The reduction in fastball velocity followed by the reduction in use of the fastball. Could an injury be the cause? But he was also unlucky in 2010, and even if he pitches basically the same, better luck would make him a decent starter in AL-only leagues. Then there's that blow to the head...

RP Huston Street - Okay, so he's a little on the fragile side. But he does his rehab and comes back strong every time. When he stops bouncing back I'll stop drafting him.

RP Joe Nathan - Tommy John Surgery just isn't the problem it used to be. These days a guy returns in 12-14 months and he's stronger than ever.

Teach A Man to Fish...

C Derek Norris - Ivan Rodriguez, Wilson Ramos and Jesus Flores are all in his way but Norris is the one who be guiding the Nationals pitching staff when they are ready to win. He'll prove that this season. He has the best bat of the bunch (by far) and though he has areas to improve defensively, throwing out 50 percent of potential basestealers will win you a ton of leeway.

C Robinson Chirinos - If nothing else he is more interesting than John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach. The Rays like him a lot, the Tampa Bay bloggers like him a lot and PECOTA likes him a lot. Here's a clip from TheProcessReport.com (one of the better Rays blogs out there):

So, imagine my delight when PECOTA projects a rather solid line for Chirinos right out of the chute: .261/.369/.455. That’s pretty good from any position, but catcher? Forget about it, consider that Prospectus has the league average catcher at .248/.321/.379 last season, leaving Chirinos with at least a .013 point advantage across the board. Impressive stuff, except some parts of this post are lies.

Prospectus does not have Chirinos projected at .261/.369/.455; Prospectus has Chirinos projected at .276/.360/.471. Even better – so why the deceit? Because the line everyone, from you to me to your mother would have taken from Chirinos belongs to someone hated in the fan base – Kelly Shoppach – and it’s not a projection, but rather how he hit left-handers last season. Folks are so quick to dismiss Shoppach from the roster for flavor of the month candidates like Jose Lobaton and Nevin Ashley that they forget Shoppach has utility to this roster and provided value last season.

1B Dan Johnson - Remember him? I'll let TPR take the lead again:

According to the research of Jason Hanselman of Dock of The Rays, Johnson’s expected BABIP (xBABIP) should have been right around the league average at .301. That equates to 13 extra hits and an expected slash line of .311/.432/.527. Even the biggest Johnson supporters would say that line is extremely optimistic, but keep in mind we’re talking about a small sample size of 40 games. The point is, even if Johnson’s 2011 BABIP is in the neighborhood of .250-.260, his batting average will improve and so will his already admirable on-base percentage.

3B Ian Stewart - It seems like he's been around forever but he is just 25 years old. He is finally feeling his job threatened and it seems to be exactly the motivation he needed. Stewart has been more vocal in the clubhouse and is putting up a fight for his job. He is working with hitting coach Carney Lansford on a slight alteration to his stance against lefties and on using the entire field rather than the pull-heavy style he has used in recent years. The potential is there and now the motivation is too.

CR Brett Wallace - A lot of teams are going to regret giving up on Brett Wallace so soon. He was a great hitter in college and a great prospect for the Cardinals, then after a year of being shuffled about we're shocked he lost his swing mechanics for a minute and struggled in an unexpected Major League debut? He's kicking ass this Spring, especially relative to the other Astros hitters.

2B Ryan Raburn - He is finally getting the playing time he'll need to make a serious impact on your fantasy team. Seriously, 30 homers (an increasingly rare feat) is a real possibility.

SS Alcides Escobar - Once the favored prospect of the Brewers, he was gonna be the base-stealing, gold glove shortstop of the next decade. Instead he is a Kansas City Royal. All that stuff he was gonna do for the Brewers? He'll just be doing it for the Royals' soon-to-be loaded and contending team.

MI Jed Lowrie - He is a better shortstop than Marcos Scutaro in almost every way, but Terry Francona is a loyal guy and he'll force Lowrie to fight for every at-bat and prove he deserves to play.

OF Logan Morrison - He has more power than early drafters seem to believe. He is only going to get better over the next few seasons. Even now he should hit for average with decent power and score a bunch of runs batting in front of Mike Stanton and Gaby Sanchez.

OF Carlos Gomez - Yeah, he's hitting .400 this spring. Sometimes it just takes time, sometimes it takes tough love, sometimes you just need people to think Lorenzo Cain is better than you.

OF Roger Bernadina - He is fighting for a starting outfield spot with the Nationals. Draft him whether he wins or loses. The Rick Ankiel and Nyjer Morgan types can't block him for much longer. He'll provide power and speed even as a bench guy.

UTL Juan Miranda - It looks like Russell Branyan will win the first base job. That is very understandable for a team that wants to win games now. I still back Miranda as a decent sleeper because the Diamondbacks have a gaping hole in left field, where Miranda can also play (if not particularly well. But he has a left field bat, which is more than you can say for most of the other candidates.

SP Craig Stammen - A strong groundball rate, a strong swinging strike rate that suggests his K-rate will rebound to levels closer to those on his minor league resume. And he'll be available so cheaply, you can't lose.

SP Carlos Carrasco - It seems like he's been around forever. He is just 24-years old. Analysts have debated for a few ears about his upside, mid-rotation or potential ace. He'll show us which this season, either way the price is right for acquiring him.

SP James McDonald - The Dodgers of the last few years give up on guys far too quickly. McDonald struggled a bit but he never got the chance to adjust. Now the Pirates will reap the benefits.

SP Phil Coke -When a guy gets moved from starting to relieving early in his career, we often forget how successful he was in his former role. Coke isn't a superstar but he's going to be a solid rotation guy.

SP Gio Gonzalez - A friend of mine has lost his mind trying to add Gio Gonzalez in every league. He's absolutely positive he is the next big breakout pitcher. He did have an amazing second half of the season. Gonzalez is also having a very nice Spring Training.

SP Brian Matusz - Matusz is a future ace. There no denying it. Do what you can to acquire him now. He's heating up this spring the way he did in the second half last season.

SP Max Scherzer - After his brief demotion, Scherzer posted a 2.46 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning over his final 23 starts. That's one of the best pitchers in baseball for almost two thirds of the season.

RP Ryan Webb - He has the stuff to close. I've always hated Leo Nunez.

RP Kenley Jansen - He's a middle reliever you want on your pitching staff. He'll help your pitching staff (especially in strikeouts) more than a lot of starters would.

RP Johnny Venters - The man who should be closing for the Braves, he has the strikeout rate plus the control the other guy struggles with.

RP Evan Meek - The man who should be closing for the Pirates, he has the strikeout rate plus the control the other guy struggles with.

Its Not Where You're From...

C Hank Conger - As the only catcher the Angels have, who knows how to use a baseball bat, Conger is bound to get playing time. He can hit but he's still a rookie so don't overbid.

C Jonathan Lecroy - He'll miss four weeks with a finger fracture but he is still the starting catcher. He can hit a little too. He'll be a great one dollar catcher in 2011.

1B Adam Dunn - One of the best sluggers in baseball is moving from an National League pitchers' park to one of the best homer parks in the American League. Fifty homers is not out of the question.

3B Edwin Encarnacion - His potential is immense. Imagine he starts taking to the same coaching Jose Bautista starting to use the last couple of years? I have a hunch this could be the year. He's been sufficiently humbled.

CR Carlos Pena - It was a big portion of bad luck for a guy who has a small margin for error. He should rebound this season with the Cubs who have a ballpark he should enjoy mashing within.

2B Chris Getz - You don't need every guy to be a hall of famer. You just need guys that will produce more than their cost to you. Getz will hit a few homers and steal some bases. He may even qualify at multiple positions.

SS Luis Cruz - It is very anti-sabremetrics of me to admit this, but I think Yuniesky Betancourt has been underrated, and even abused by the pro-Advanced Stat crowd. Sure, he isn't a great player but he gets ground into the dirt whenever his name is mentioned. It's a little much. But if the Brewers get sick of Betancourt's mediocre defense and his inconsistent bat, Luis Cruz is ready and raring to go. He tore up the winter leagues, don't take my word for it, go look it up.

MI Omar Infante - No, he doesn't really rank as an All-Star but he is a solid player about to get a career high number of at-bats. That usually equals career high stats for the talented guys and Infante is a talented guy. Plus, he's one of those guys that just looks like a Baseball Player.

OF Jay Gibbons - A once solid bat, that is probably out of place as a starter. It looks like Marcus Thames and Tony Gwynn are going to take a lot of at-bats from him. But for a buck or two, in a deep NL-only, he could be useful.

OF Rajai Davis - He hits for average, he steals a ton of bases and he'll score a mega-ton of runs. Don't get all down on him because of his on-base percentage, that probably doesn't matter in your league anyway.

OF Jordan Schafer - He's back, he's healthy and swinging the bat as he did a few years back. As soon as an opening presents itself he'll be the best fifth outfielder you've ever owned.

OF David Murphy - Because of the Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli acquisitions, Murphy will be sitting a little more than usual at the start of the season. But with Josh Hamilton fragile, Nelson Cruz fragile, and Julio Borbon inconsistent thus far - Murphy will get his at-bats.

SP Aaron Harang - Once upon a time owners actually wanted to draft Harang. He was a fairly effective pitcher with a decent strikeout rate. Then he ran into Dusty Baker and an unfavorable ballpark and everything went to hell. Now he has a manager used to coddling fragile arms and the best pitching park in the game.

SP Jeff Francis - The former ace of the Rockies has had some rough times of late, mostly due to injuries but seems healthy now, if not quite what he was once projected to be. He still has some stuff and a mind that knows how to use that stuff, and a ballpark stingy with homeruns.

SP Chris Young - See Jeff Francis, but change Rockies to Padres.

SP Kyle McClellan - They keep calling him the fifth starter for the Cardinals, but he won't be at the end of the season. Then they'll be calling him ace.

SP Mark Rzepczynski - With a new manager in place, a pitching oriented one, Rzepczynski has a chance to win a spot in the rotation again, or at least become a regular in the bullpen. Either way, I expect him to be very useful in AL-only leagues.

RP Joel Peralta - Someone has to get saves in Tampa Bay, it may as well be Peralta. If nothing else he's the cheapest of the guys projected to be part of the time-share.

RP Henry Rodriguez - I just like guys that can sling in 100mph in bullpens with closers I don't like.

RP Matt Belisle - He is not flashy but he is effective and in a bullpen with weaknesses.

RP Jordan Walden - He is the future closer of the Angels. Get him now.

RP Jesse Crain - If Thornton chokes on the big job, this guy rather than Sale just might be the answer.

Flying Pigs in a Wintery Hell

C Brayan Pena - The Royals would rather start broken down Jason Kendall.

C Jason Castro - He finally has a complete opportunity in his grasp and he gets hurt again.

1B Jason Giambi - He can still hit a ton of homeruns. If Todd Helton goes down again...

3B Jose Lopez - Everyone except the Rockies management apparently, would rather see Eric Young Jr. win the second base job this season.

CR Dallas McPherson - The White Sox may actually keep him on their bench this season. Maybe he'll put some at-bats together.

2B Luis Hernandez - He may have gotten some press as a possibility for the Mets but it will never happen.

SS Eric Farris - A toolsy possibility should the Brewers get sick of their mediocre and injury-prone middle infielders.

OF Carlos Gomez - Sure he has yet to show much potential in the majors but it's in there somewhere. Maybe the great spring is a sign.

OF Matt Joyce - The Rays traded for him and then they let him sit around for a while. But apparently he'll get serious play this season. In that case, you want him.

OF Johnny Damon - He'll keep Desmond Jennings down on the farm all season. No better reason for resentment than that.

SP Zack Duke - He depends on defense and the Pirates gave him none last season.

SP Scott Olsen - He's not even close to what he was maybe with a team like the Pirates he can accept that.

SP Paul Maholm - See Zack Duke.

SP Esmil Rogers - He gets the strikeouts and the groundballs, he just needs to have some BABIP luck, or stop allowing so many linedrives, either one. Looks like he has a spot in the rotation all sewed up.

SP Shawn Hill - He is always hurt, but when healthy he can be an effective starter.

RP Dontrelle Willis - His spring started off okay, but this is probably the last shot for Willis.

RP Fernando Rodney - He'll get saves but his ratio stats will suck.

Built-In Resentment

C Chris Ianetta - This is clearly Ianetta's last opportunity to prove himself with the Rockies. According to Denver Post columnist Troy Renck, minor-league catching prospect Jordan Pacheco has impressed veterans with his plate discipline and understanding of his swing. He says there are some in the organization that believe he can hit big-league pitching this season.

C Matt Wieters - In a lot of keeper leagues, Wieters owners have to decide before the season starts whether he deserves a contract extension or not. Prediction: Wieters will be available in a lot of drafts in 2012.

1B Kila Ka'aihue - In this case the resentment isn't ours. It comes from Royals GM Dayton Moore who hates that the power and average providing Ka'aihue has forced himself into the big league picture. He's also hated by those that need to spell his name.

3B Brandon Wood - Now that no one cares, he's absolutely positive to produce great numbers for a shortstop/third baseman.

CR Andy Marte - The Pirates are the latest team to give him a look.

2B Ben Zobrist - There is a guy in one of my leagues that could have traded his one dollar Zobrist for almost anything, but he held on to him. He thought the power was for real (so did I ) but it hasn't worked out so well so far.

SS Drew Sutton - A disciplined player in the Ben Zobrist class of hitters. He could start the season with the Red Sox. he won't get many at-bats but if an injury happens he could have use in AL-only.

MI Robert Andino - With J.J. Hardy injury-prone and Cedeno without a bat, Andino might be the best offensive option at short the Orioles have, at least at times during the season.

OF Felix Pie - The baseball gods just won't give Pie a break. When he plays well he either gets hurt or is then stuck on the bench behind a more proven player. He has not played well from the bench in his career but he says he's better prepared for that role this season.

OF Nate McClouth - He's back. No one knows where he went but 20/20 is once again a possibility.

OF Jeff Francouer - He is in a very comfortable situation. A coaching staff he's familiar with and an upper management that has faith in him. He has been put into a leadership role on a very young team. I have a hunch he has a decent season. But I won't pay more than a buck or two.

OF Alex Gordon - Judging by his Spring Training numbers he really wants to play on your team this season. Will you let him?

OF Julio Borbon - Many owners were disappointed by Borbon in 2010. But giving up on him is probably a mistake. He has the talent to be a top fantasy outfielder.

UTL David Ortiz - Something his slow starts the last couple of seasons has seen his stock drop dramatically in early drafts this season. I think he has another great season in him, especially surrounded by so much talent on the Red Sox.

SP A.J. Burnett - He's had a great spring and he has all the talent in the world. However, he tends to let us down.

SP Javier Vasquez - Except for those years with the Expos (doesn't that seem like a million years ago) and that one season with the Braves, he's been disappointing. He might be a solid pitcher this season but if you pay for more than that I name you sucker.

SP Oliver Perez - Maybe he can find a team that won't trash his mechanics and then release him when he loses velocity. Harold Reynolds agrees.

SP Joel Pinero - He's never quite as good as we hope.

SP Jason Hammel - Hammel tends to struggle with men on base. Probably because he gets hammered when pitching out of the stretch. However until those base runners get on he is a pretty good pitcher.

RP Joba Chamberlain - He's got his velocity back. Makes a huge difference. The oblique injury is just annoying.

RP Wilton Lopez - He pitches for that Astros, but I like him. I like him quite a but actually.

OFF THE BENCH

C Bobby Wilson - The Angels are obsessed with defense and Bobby Wilson may be the only possibility that can provide a great defensive presence and not be a complete zero with the bat.

C Jake Fox - At the time of this writing, Fox was leading the majors in Spring Training homers and RBI. He could always hit, he just needs a position to play and the opportunity to get 400 or so at-bats. Buck Showalter might be the man to give it to him. If he gets 20-30 starts at catcher that would really rock.

1B Chris Davis - Every season he puts on a late season homer display and looks like the second coming in Spring Training.The question is always, is this the year? In 806 at-bats, Davis has 39 homers, which isn't too bad, it is the 278 strikeouts in that same period that kills him.

3B Eric Chavez - He's healthy and playing quite a bit in Spring Training. Damn, he used to be good. One of the best actually.

CR Jorge Vazquez - This big guy can hit. Only Eric Chavez is standing in his way. Chavez is bound to get hurt doing that.

2B Josh Barfield - He probably just lost a nice role to Luis Castillo.

SS Eduardo Nunez - Look him up, he's better than you think. He'll be stealing some bases for the Yankees this season.

MI Scott Sizemore - The Tigers were willing to call him the starter at second last year before Spring Training even started. They'll find a place for him this season.

OF Marcus Thames - He should play quite a bit with Gibbons considered the full time left fielder. Thames has stupid power.

OF Alejandro De Aza - He'll steal some bases, no matter what.

OF Mike Morse - He could always hit, he's just never been given the opportunity to put 500 at-bats together as a starter. He might win a starting role this spring, either way he's going to play this season, a lot.

OF Tony Gwynn Jr. - The Dodgers would be very happy if Gwynn won their center field job and pushed Kemp to left field. He's having a great spring, maybe the combination of Daddy and Donnie Baseball has got everything finally clicking. At worst you'll still collect a couple dozen steals.

UTL Mark Trumbo - He'll man first base while Kendry Morales is on the disabled list.

Rookie of the Year Candidates

C Carlos Santana - He does everything and he's a catcher. Bold Statement: Forget Buster Posey, this is your man. You're gonna love him.

C Jesus Montero - There is some doubt out there bout whether Montero can remain at the catcher position but it isn't coming from the higher ups in the Yankees organization. Mark Newman admitted to John Sickels that there was a point when Montero was indeed a bad catcher. However, he has worked very hard to learn the position and Newman believes he can be average at the position. With this guy's bat that is more than good enough, and fantastic news for Montero owners. And yes, he can play from the bench.

1B Brandon Belt - His excellent bat control and great coaching has helped him shoot through the Giants system. He may never return to the minors.

3B Lonnie Chisenhall - The cheapskate Indians just sent him back to the minors to save a few bucks but he'll be back really soon. He isn't Mike Schmidt but he should hit for average and power.

CR Mike Moustakas - Okay, he might be Mike Schmidt.

2B Jason Kipnis - The Indians are loaded with great talent again. Kipnis is another that could be playing for the tribe right now. Hopefully the Indians don't screw it up again.

SS Danny Espinosa - A potential 20/20 shortstop is definitely somthing we fantasy guys like to see. His batting average may not impress but it shouldn't kill you unless you have other BA-less players keeping you down.

MI Brett Lawrie - He has a solid chance to skip Triple-A ans start the season with the Toronto Blue Jays.

OF Domonic Brown - The broken hand may end up being the best thing to happen to Domonic Brown. Rather than face the pressure of winning a spot he can relax, rehab and then get a call-up after tearing up the minors for a few weeks more. It's all good.

OF Eric Thames - A toolsy outfield prospect for the Blue Jays. If Travis Snider fails to make it happen you could see him mid-season.

OF Brett Jackson - Blocked in the Cubs outfield for now. I love his bat and feel he's slightly underrated. Probably because he's a Cub.

OF Trayvon Robinson - He's a bit raw but has potential superstar written all over him. A faster Matt Kemp is my comparison.

OF Will Myers - If he was remaining a catcher for reals, he might be the number one prospect in baseball. Hell have to settle for top ten.

UTL Eric Hosmer - The 2011 Baseball Prospectus called him Batman. What else do you need to know?

SP Zach Britton - My favorite pitching prospect, an extreme groundball guy with a knack for striking guys out. It looks like he'll make the team out of spring training.

SP Michael Pineda - Pineda has the strikeouts and control to be on a bunch of sleeper lists. But the topper for me is the ability to also induce groundballs. No, I can't say it enough.

SP Jeremy Hellickson - Everyone loves him, he'll probably be over priced.

SP Kyle Drabek - Son of Doug and a future ace on his own merits.

SP Mike Minor - Picked because he would move quickly through the system, he turned out to be better than even the Braves expected.

SP Ivan Nova - Ivan Nova was 12-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 23 Triple-A starts in 2010. He is one of many young Yankees having a great Spring Training.

SP Mark Rogers - He has the stuff when healthy. It used to be better stuff but it's still plenty good. He won't begin the season with the big league team because he's been slow stretching out, but he'll be up soon if all goes well.

RP Jake McGee - He's begging to close, so far Joe Maddon is ignoring him.

RP Chris Sale - He won't get the first shot at the closer role but he should still have great stats. Just don't pay too much.

RP Craig Kimbrel - The new close for the Braves. You can't ignore the strikeout rate, he should be an exciting pitcher to own.

RP Aroldis Chapman - He won't close this year and he isn't likely to start either but he has the stuff for either job. The starting would take some time, the closing he's ready to do now.

The Adventure of Juan Carlos Linares

He has received much attention since defecting to the United States but he was a star in Cuba and could advance to the Major League Red Sox in a hurry. He had a very good Arizona Fall League season and followed that with a nice Spring Training. He's a nice sleeper for your minor league draft but has only played a few games in the minor leagues so don't over pay.

Looking for 2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers?

Are you looking for sleepers for your fantasy league draft? You've come to the right place. Today I present (yes, as a tease) just the first of the eight teams of sleepers in the annual All Sleeper Teams article. The rest should be up tonight (please please please...)

Let the name of the team be your guide.

Easy Like Apple Pie

C Mike Napoli - He is finally with a team that appreciates his skills but be careful not to over estimate his playing time. He'll be the primary DH against left-handers (and he'll rock at that) but at-bats against righties could be tough to come by.

C Matt Wieters - So few catchers have ever been dominate offensive players at Wieter's age that calling him a sleeper seems unfair. Like calling a teenager a potential adult, if you just wait a few years he'll probably get there.

1B Mitch Moreland - He's young but he's a fairly disciplined hitter that should hit for both average and power in the middle of a great lineup in a great park for hitters. Plus he won't cost nearly as much as the equivalent hitter with more experience. Would you rather have a $12 Moreland or a $23 Derrek Lee?

3B Pablo Sandoval - His confidence is soaring, he's in the best shape of his life and his new condition should ensure that doesn't get benched for poor defense again.

CR Jerry Sands - He won't begin the season with the team but he's too much the powerful hitter the Dodgers need to stay in the minors the entire season. I'm betting he's up in May.

2B Sean Rodriguez - He does a little of everything, and the price is right to gamble on what he does with career high at-bats.

SS Jose Reyes - He's healthy again, he's playing for a new contract with a manager who values him for what he does, rather than what he might do. That is to say watch him steal 70 bases in 2011.

MI Gordon Beckham - His potential is just too high to give up on. Plus, the White Sox rushed him a bit anyway, so the slump was something not very difficult to fortell.

OF Jason Heyward - If he stays on the field (and healthy while doing so) for 550-600 at-bats, he's a potential 2011 MVP.

OF Mike Stanton - This is your next National League Homerun King. If you're worried that he won't hit for average you haven't been watching closely enough.

OF Dexter Fowler - He has all the tools and the developing skills to explode on the scene a lot like teammate Carlos Gonzalez did in 2010. Now he needs a cool nickname, De-Fowl? De-Ler? Dexter is a serial killer to me now...

OF Jay Bruce - Bruce hit .338/.418/.700 during August-October. Bruce hit 15 HR in his final 35 games. Bruce is coming around.

UTL Manny Ramirez - With Manny it is all about health and motivation. He seems motivated to keep his career going. He the opportunity, now he just needs to go do it. Are you really betting against him?

SP Shawn Marcum - He proved last season that he was fully recovered from elbow surgery. This season he gets not only the bump from moving from the American League to the National League, but a bump from the AL-East to the NL-Central. He is my pitcher to get in NL-only Leagues this season.

SP Matt Garza - Garza gets the same bumps as Marcum but a lot of analysts seem to feel he'll be hurt by Wrigley Field (at least the ones that don't just think he's overrated do). I think what he gains in the switch (like facing pitchers instead of David Ortiz, Adam Lind, Jorge Posada and Vladimir Guerrero) will more than make up for a few extra homers allowed due to park factors.

SP Edison Volquez - He is the ace the Reds have been looking for. He'll prove it this season.

SP Jonathan Sanchez - I just love all those strikeouts. He's jumping up a level this season.

SP Phil Hughes - The Little Rocket (so named by Jason Giambi) takes off this season.

SP Daniel Hudson - He had an amazing second half, Hudson may not be an "ace" but he is damn good. He and Mr. Kennedy will put the D'backs back in contention.

RP Frank Francisco - The favorite for saves in Toronto. His only problem has been staying healthy. He does not have the platoon problems that the other candidates for the job have.

RP J.J. Putz - The new closer in Arizona. Don't let the injuries and non-closer season get you down on Putz. He's as good as they come when healthy.

RP Drew Storen - This great young pitcher surrounded by solid bullpen talent should be able to thrive as the Nationals new closer. He isn't being drafted very high so he makes a great later round saves grab.

Wait until you see the rest of the teams. You will LOVE it.

Wiggy, Lewis lead NL-only 'Deep Picks'

Just to re-introduce myself to the blog, my name is Pauly…I infrequently contributed to Advanced Fantasy Baseball during last season. This year, I am planning a weekly feature, “Pauly’s Pickup of the Week,” which will highlight one hitter and one pitcher each week who should (or will become) a universal legit pickup in fantasy baseball.

As I’m sure you know, in-season pickups can be the difference between contending and bringing up the rear. Last year, for instance, I picked up Jose Bautista in week 2 of the season in one league and week 3 of the season in the other. Needless to say, we all know he made a significant impact :) So look for Pauly’s Pickup of the Week every Friday morning once the season starts.

As for your draft prep…I don’t want to contribute to the glut of projections for top-line players out there. You know where to find that stuff. However, most of these draft previews don’t include deep picks.

Deep picks…those of use in “only” leagues are mostly familiar with the concept of trying to find a very cheap end-game player either as the last pick in your draft; the cheapest pick of your draft; or for reserve drafts. If you are in a deep NL-only, this column may be for you…it’s a list of players who will not be in an opening day lineup this season, but will see enough at-bats to contribute to your fantasy team as a cheap plug-in. There may be quite a few teams picking at least one player from this list – mainly every team that drafts Albert Pujols – meaning they are likely using the “Stars & Scrubs” strategy discussed by Jon earlier this week.

Here are my top 10 NL-only deep picks on offense:

1. Tyler Colvin (OF - CHC): OK, Colvin isn't sneaking up on anybody after hitting 20 HR in 135 games last season. But the bottom line is that he is the Cubs' fourth outfielder right now, and barring injury, he will be riding pine when the first pitch is thrown on opening day. The fact that he isn't starting should push his ADP and auction value down (assuming he wasn't kept), and those HR may come at a bargain in 2011. The rest of the players on this list fall more into the endgame.

2. Ty Wigginton (1B 2B 3B – COL): Heading into the season, Wigginton is likely backing up Todd Helton at first base, Jose Lopez at second base and Ian Stewart at third base. Stewart just returned to spring action on Wednesday, but assuming he is OK for opening day, that means Wigginton will be taking on the “super sub” role in Colorado…and that means a lot of at-bats this season. Wiggy has shown over and over that he can produce with ABs (22 HR last season in 581), and besides, is anyone really counting on Helton to stay healthy? One caveat is because of Wigginton’s elevated numbers last season, he may not be an end-game pick, but if your league mates only pay for starting players, you will get a bargain here.

3. Fred Lewis (OF – CIN): Dusty Baker doesn’t have a pure leadoff hitter in his starting lineup. He says he is going to use Drew Stubbs there for the most part, but let’s face it – it’s an experiment. Lewis, the only pure leadoff hitter on the team, happens to back up every OF position in Cincy. That means as soon as Jonny Gomes starts slumping or Jay Bruce hurts a fingernail, Lewis is leading off. That means the potential for an easy 60-plus runs scored and 15-plus stolen bases. He can legitimately challenge for best OF option on this list.

4. Jason Michaels (OF – HOU): The Astros are a bit of a depth chart mess right now because it is hard to predict what is going to happen with Brett Wallace. As it is right now, Michaels is the universal OF backup in Houston. If Wallace struggles like he did during his cup ‘o coffee last season (.222/.296/319), it will open the door for a lot of playing time for Michaels. Carlos Lee would move to first base and Michaels would become the starting left fielder. If that happens, I wouldn’t expect the world from Michaels, but for a dollar I’d take the shot that he can hit 10 HR and live up to his career .270 average.

5. Daniel Murphy (1B – NYM): Murphy is challenging Luis Castillo for the second base job in New York. Assuming he comes up short, Murphy will still be an excellent source of ABs over the course of the season. I mean how many of us can see Castillo (who did nothing in half a season last year) holding down that job for any extended period? Murphy is coming off a torn MCL which forced him to miss last season – and a chance to compete for the 1B job in NY – but he hit 12 HR in 155 ABs in 2009 and should see more ABs than that this season backing up Castillo and Ike Davis at first.

6. Jerry Hairston Jr. (2B SS – WAS): Hairston will back up Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond up the middle for the Nationals. You have to figure he gets a lot of ABs backing up such a young duo. Last year in San Diego, Hairston put up 10 HR and 9 SB in 430 ABs before suffering a stress fracture in his leg in September. He started 105 games at five different positions (second, short, third, left and right) and six different spots in the batting order. Expect the same in Washington.

7. Jorge Cantu (SD): Cantu backs up both corners (Chase Headley and Brad Hawpe) in San Diego. He has the potential to catch fire and provide you with a month or two of really good production. Just look at his numbers in April last season – he hit .311 with 5 HR and 23 RBI. So the potential is there…the question is, when will it happen? My guess is Cantu will be solid in the first half again this season, and you can expect 10-15 HR over the long haul – not bad for a buck.

8. Jon Jay (OF – STL): Jay was actually a popular late-season pickup last year after posting a .300/.359/.422 line in 105 games. While he hasn’t shown a ton of power or speed, he will hit you a few homers and steal you a few bases – all while keeping his averages respectable. With Lance Berkman in right field for St. Louis, you can expect Jay to see regular action late in games this season.

9 & 10. Mike Fontenot & Mark DeRosa (2B / OF – SF): Both of these guys are coming off down years (which makes them really cheap), and both of them should see a bunch of ABs – at least in the early going – this season. Fontenot will back up all the infield positions in San Francisco outside of catcher; and DeRosa will see plenty of time in the OF and could see time at 3B. With starting second baseman Freddy Sanchez coming off a 111-game season, and Miguel Tejada at SS, there should be plenty of opportunity for Fontenot to thrive in the “super sub” role. He hit 9 HR in back-to-back seasons for Chicago before he struggled last season. DeRosa, who hit 23 HR in 2009 but played in only 26 games last season and had a second wrist surgery – will platoon with Pat Burrell.

Hey I didn’t say these guys didn’t carry any risk :)

See you next week for NL draft day pitching bargains.

-Pauly

TENTATIVE FREEZE LISTS AND THE RESERVE DRAFT

This week I'm offering up an idea to help get those last minute trades rolling, plus a look at how to make your post-auction reserve draft a success.

Tentative Freeze Lists. This is an exercise I always try to initiate in any league I am in, at least two to three weeks before freezes are due. You simply invite every owner to post a non-binding list of his anticipated freezes, and you start off by proposing your own. Most owners will respond favorably to this, even if they are not yet certain as to which players they want to freeze.

The exercise doesn’t always provide a great deal of information. If you’ve done your homework you should have already projected most of the freezes. But frequently an owner will list a keeper you didn't expect, or will indicate an intention to drop a certain player who appeals to you. Accordingly, the exercise can serve some very important interests, and create an opportunity to improve your own keeper list, even if you have already gone through the process of predicting everyone‘s freezes.

One benefit is that it tends to get owners active. Even though you may have been studying in earnest since January, there will be some owners who have given their squads very little attention since the end of the previous season. The idea of submitting a tentative freeze list will often spur these owners to get in gear and analyze their rosters.

Perhaps the most important function of the “tentative freeze list” exercise is that it can dramatically increase trade conversations and opportunities. I believe this adds enjoyment to the league, while giving you a chance to improve your freeze list. Owners may realize an area where they are weak, and look for trades to shore up that area. Owners may indicate that they won’t freeze certain players, giving you the sign that these players are available for the right offer. The mere increase in league activity can lead to trades.

The “tentative freeze list” and the trades that it promotes can allow you to establish better relationships with your fellow owners. This can come in very handy during the season when an opportunity arises for you to help each other by a trade.

In summary, it’s a great gambit…fun for all, educational, and helpful in maximizing your freeze lists going into the auction.

The Reserve Draft. Many leagues have a reserve draft after the primary auction, where owners are allowed to fill their reserve rosters in a round-by-round draft, often in a serpentine format. Some leagues have a small reserve roster, maybe five players, while the “ultra” leagues generally have a minimum of seventeen players on their reserve list. How can you best use this reserve draft to your team’s advantage?

Players picked in reserve drafts usually carry the salary of the round in which they are picked. Typically, first round picks have a salary of $15. Rounds 2 through 6 are $10. Rounds 7 through 12 are $5 picks. Rounds 13 to 17 are $2 rounds, but they still hold some treasures if you look closely enough.

My belief is that you should use your first round pick to find someone who can help you right away. Since these players carry a price tag of $15, few owners will use a first round pick to select a minor league prospect. So what should you look for in a first round draft pick?

There are almost always some valuable players who were missed for one reason or another during the auction. If you have kept up carefully with who was taken and not taken in the auction, you’ll have this information at your fingertips. You can sometimes improve your roster substantially, as this overlooked player may be better than one of the players you purchased.

For your picks in rounds 1 through 6, it is a good idea to back up players from your active roster. For example, if you bought Joel Hanrahan as one of your closers in the auction, and Evan Meek is available in Round 2 of the reserve draft, you might do well to add him to your squad. Likewise, if another owner has a shaky closer, you might be wise to use one of these picks to grab the pitcher most likely to pitch the 9th if that closer were to lose his job. Such a player might make a good trading chip, or he might turn into a full time closer.

Rounds 7 through 12 are where you pick up your prize minor leaguers and other prospects with the potential for substantial value in the future. These players will only be $5, so they will start their tenure on your team as a relatively inexpensive commodity. So, grab your favorite minor leaguer here, but know that the other owners will likely have the same game plan.

This is also a good time to pick up an injured player who may miss most or all of the year. You can add that player here without it costing you a roster spot or any budget dollars. Last year, Joe Nathan fit into this category in some leagues. Keep in mind that Round 7 holds the most strategic picks, since this is the first of the $5 rounds and where most owners look for future keepers.

Rounds 13 through 17 can be difficult. Here you can reach way down into the minors and pick up a player with great tools but a long way to go. Often, leagues do not start the clock running on minor leaguer salaries until they are activated, so you may be able to wait a couple of years for these flowers to bloom. In my experience is it noteworthy how many future stars were originally selected as long-shots in rounds 13 through 17.

The reserve draft moves extremely fast. You call a name, you get that player. For this reason, it is absolutely critical that you have a reliable method for keeping up with who was frozen or purchased in the auction, and who is left over for the reserve draft.

Well, that’s this week’s article. If you have any questions about the article, about specific player issues, or just want let me know what you think, please feel free to use the “comments” portion of the page, found below.

Good luck, and have fun!

How to Win: The LIMA Plan

The LIMA (Low Investment Mound Aces) Plan became extremely popular for a while. However, it soon became a less effective strategy for some because the most recommended LIMA pitchers were so hotly desired that they quickly became too expensive to fit within the plan. We zig when they zag, so many of us dropped the strategy. Now, with a few years separating us from the height of the strategy's popularity, it may become a viable strategy again, with a few tweaks.

1. Go extreme LIMA - Avoid the future closer types and the popular future starter candidates such as Chris Sale and Aroldis Chapman. These guys are too popular to get at a discount. You need to be way ahead of the game to effectively use the LIMA Plan now. The middle relievers you draft should cost you no more than 2-3 bucks each. Here are a few guys to look into that should be pretty cheap: Wilton Lopez, Astros; Joe Thatcher, Padres; Matt Belisle, Rockies; Takashi Saito, Brewers; and James Russell, Cubs.
2. Screw the Closer - Unless you can get one for dirt cheap, forget about drafting a closer and spend even more on offense. You can trade for a closer later if you don't get lucky on the waiver wire. With offense you should be able to put together, you should have plenty to entice potential trade partners.
   
3. Pick Up Young Starters - When you troll the waiver wire look for young starters getting call ups, especially ones being called up after brief demotions. They're usually a lot better the second time around.
   

You can still win with the LIMA Plan, it just takes a little imagination and stepping away from the guys that everyone else is clamoring after.

How to Win: The Stars and Scrubs Strategy

Stars and Scrubs is a strategy that a lot of owners use. Essentially an owner will use his available budget to acquire as many star level players as possible. It make s some sense, these arew the players that can often carry a fantasy team for long stretches. The remaining players are the scrubs, very low cost players, the idea is to embrace risk and draft a lot of high upside scubs.

It is a strategy that will often help a team place in the money but not always bring a victory. This is not a weakness of the strategy it is a weakness in the owner's use of it. Here are some tips to make it a more effective strategy.

1. Scarce Positions - If you're willing to pay top dollar for stars, do it at the positions that will bring you the biggest advantage. This year grabbing the top shortstops is a great strategy. Typically, catcher, and third base are going to be good spots to spend your money as well. I would also grab the top outfielders if you can manage it. Outfield thins out very quickly when 12-13 teams (only leagues) or 15-20 teams (deeper mixed leagues) are grabbing five each.
2. The Pitchers - I would avoid buying pitchers with my stud money. You should have a pitching budget and a pitching plan that is independent of your offensive plan. Spending 25-plus on pitchers even the best ones is not something I am often willing to do. I personally prefer to have a deep group of $8-15 guys with maybe a $20 "ace" to front things. I always have 2-3 one dollar relief pitchers - even in deep leagues you can manage to grab a few relievers with high strikeout ability for very cheap, you should have a long list of possibilities with you at the draft.
   
3. The Scrubs - You also need to have a plan for your scrubs. You don't want to just buy the guys that go cheap. You want specific groups of scrubs. Identify players that will not cost big money that have the potential for career-high at-bat totals, young players with upside and playing time potential. Older veterans with starting roles that fantasy owners are bored with owning. And players returning from long-term disabled list stints. Platoon Players with at least one dominate ability, such as hitting for power or stealing bases. Some ideas: 2B Josh Barfield, Phillies; 3B/OF Alex Gordon, Royals; OF Julio Borbon, Rangers; C Brayan Pena, Royals; OF Jordan Schafer, Braves; 3B Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays; OF Marcus Thames, Dodgers; 2B/OF Ryan Raburn; and SS Jed Lowrie, Red Sox.

Stars and Scrubs is a legit strategy for use in any auction league. Just remember to consider your scrubs just as important as your stars and you can have a championship level auction.

Coming This Week:

Monday Night: How to Win - Still Using the LIMA Plan?

Wednesday Morning: The 2011 All Sleeper League Teams

Friday Night: 2011 Breakout Pitchers

And all sorts of goodness in-between! Don't miss it.

BUILDING YOUR AUCTION BUDGET

This is the time during my auction prep when I typically begin work on my budgets. On the surface, this might seem a fairly simple matter. You have $260. You need 23 players. Pretty straightforward, right? Maybe not. Planning and executing auction budgets seem to be areas which create problems for even the most experienced owners.

Over the years, I listened to owners lament after their auctions “Man, I got so many guys I didn‘t really want“, or “How did I wind up with so little pitching?” These owners mystify me. How could they be surprised? It’s like going to the grocery store, and then being shocked when you get home and open the shopping bags.

A good owner should have a definite idea what his team will look like coming out of the auction, if not the specific players, at least the type of players. How you can accomplish this feat, and why it is important to do so, deserves to be addressed. Most of what follows will be directed toward owners in redraft leagues, but I will illustrate how the lessons can be applied to keeper leagues as well.

Where to Spend Your Money? There is considerable debate over how one should apportion auction dollars between hitters and pitchers. On the one hand, 14 of our 23 roster spots are hitters, while only nine are pitchers. On the other hand, half the points come from pitching. I have seen guys spend $100 on pitching, and I have seen guys spend only $40 on pitching. I have even seen guys attempt the $9 pitching staff strategy. In my experience, none of those approaches find much success. Neither do gambits like Sweeney and Labadini work against experienced owners, unless the goal is simply to finish in the money,

Two things I keep in mind while building a budget:

1) Hitters are as a rule more reliable than pitchers, and therefore safer investments; and

2) In most leagues, as much as 30% of the pitching value comes from pitchers who were not projected to have value when the year started, and who are not reserve picks or free agents purchased during the season.

These things have led me to conclude that the optimal salary allocation for a 5x5 budgets is 70/30: $182 for offense and $78 for pitching. Some will say that in a 5x5, you should allocate more on the pitching side. As I’ll explain later, this is not necessary, and will weaken your offense to an unacceptable degree.

Building the Budget. Okay, we’ve decided upon a 70/30 split for our auction dollars. What’s next? First we have to make certain that the dollar values we are using are realistic. By that I do not mean only individual player’s values, but the value of the player pool in the aggregate.

The math is simple. Assuming a standard 12-team AL-only league, there are $3120 in auction dollars chasing the available talent ($260 x 12 = $3120). Auctions are a zero sum game, so assuming nobody leaves money on the table, $3120 will be spent for the 276 players who will be rostered. The projected values for the 276 players must necessarily add up to $3120. If our projected dollar values do not reflect 276 players at a total of $3120, our calculations are incorrect.

So, working with the 70/30 split we have decided upon, we must decide how we can best spend our $182 and our $78. This is where the process becomes less science and more art.

Hitters. We know what it will take to compete in each scoring category (see last week’s column), so we have to determine which combination of players will produce the numbers we need. We should probably spend big on a 1B, maybe $25, since they normally produce big power numbers and are easier to replace than are some other positions. We should also consider spending a good bit at 3B, since they can also give you good power numbers. (Some people worry that 3B is a scarce position, but we’ll examine that idea a little later.) In the middle infield, I’ll typically allocate less money per position, maybe $15 each for the 2B and SS. Let’s say $5 for the CI and $5 for the MI.

This leaves the catchers, which is one of the most difficult decisions we have to make. Despite much theorizing to the contrary, position scarcity is not an issue in an auction. In fantasy baseball, it doesn’t matter where our production comes from, so long as it happens. So long as we don’t overspend at any one position (particularly ones imagined to be scarce), there should be no problem finding the hitters we need to stock a solid roster. That is because almost every position player in our playing pool will have a positive value. So long as we are spending our money to maximize that positive value, position doesn’t matter (although 1B and OF are generally easier to replace in the event of injury or sudden lack of effectiveness)
.
Catchers present a different problem. In standard leagues, we need two catchers, so in our 12-team AL league, we will go 24 players deep at that position. Unlike OF, there are insufficient catchers with positive value for everyone to have two of them. So we must decide how much of your budget you will dedicate to this difficult position. In my AL-only league, owners tend to overspend for catchers, making it nigh impossible to find a bargain. As a consequence, I‘m usually in the “cheap catcher” school. I budget $1 for each catcher. My goal, however, is to find two catchers who will not hurt me - two catchers whose production won’t be well into the red. We can usually find them, even if we are forced to rely upon backup catchers. So, for purposes of building this budget, let’s say $1 each or a total of $92 so far for our offense.

In the outfield, We are usually best off spreading our money around. Typically I’ll go with something like $30, $25, $20, $10, and $4 for the five outfield spot, and then $1 for DH/UT. I like to leave that position open for the end game. Since it is a utility spot, you can take the best offensive player available, regardless of position. That makes $90 for OF and DH/UT. Altogether, our offensive budget now looks like this:

C $1
C $1
1B $25
2B $15
3B $25
SS $15
CI $5
MI $5
OF $30
OF $25
OF $20
OF $10
OF $4
UT $1

TOTAL: $182

Tweaking the Basic Budget. By this point in our auction prep (whether redraft or keeper league), we have an accurate picture of the specific players who will be available for purchase. We have the template for our budget, so we can begin tweaking it to match up with the actual player population. Let’s say there are several 1B we wish to target, but we don’t think we can get one of them for our allotted $25. We simply bump our 1B slot up to $30 and our 3B slot down to $20. This will allow us to acquire the player we need without abandoning our budgetary plan.

Say we need more money for a 2B or SS, and that the most expensive OF we like has a value of $20-$25. We can just shift some OF dollars up to the infield positions. If our particular league has a tendency to overvalue or undervalue any particular position, we can tweak accordingly. Eventually our auction budget will resemble the original template, fine tuned to reflect player availability, league tendencies, etc.

Pitchers. How about our $78 pitching budget? We can start out with a template which looks something like this:

P $20
P $12
P $8
P $7
P $5
P $2
P $2
P $8
P $14

TOTAL: $78

Two things should be very obvious. First, we’re not going to get Felix Hernandez or Roy Halladay. Second, we’re not going to get one of the big name closers. But, that’s fine for us. Recall our assumptions regarding pitching. Even the best pitchers are not always reliable, and this holds especially true for closers. who sometimes have a tenuous hold on their jobs. Moreover, we are mindful of the potential for value in those pitchers who are not purchased in the auction.

Armed with this knowledge, we find a good starter to fill our $20 roster slot and serve as our anchor. If we happen to save a couple of dollars, we’ll increase our $12 starter slot to a $14 slot. We’ll look for starting pitchers (whether five, six or seven total) who have outstanding skills, but maybe lack the hype or the big names. In our remaining slots, we’ll try to cobble together some saves. We might actually get a real closer with our $14 slot, if the cards fall right or if we are in a mixed 5x5 league where some owners undervalue closers. Then we’ll look to fill out our roster with other relievers who have outstanding skills, and, ideally, a chance of stepping into the closer role at some point.

Last year, in my AL-only league, I was able to pick up Jose Valverde for only $14, since he was something of a question mark to AL-league owners. I also gambled by picking up a cheap Kevin Gregg. He was also coming over from the NL, and was serving as a setup man for Jason Frasor, who I considered to be a weak closer. In mid-April, Gregg took the closer job. My third reliever was Brandon League, who is usually available in the end game, usually undervalued and usually returns a nice profit.

We might decide to tweak this budget template as well as well. We may want a more expensive anchor for our rotation, or we may feel the need to buy a more solid closer. We may even decide to punt saves (although I would advise against that, for the reasons set forth in last week’s article.) So long as we know what pitchers are out there, and which ones we can reasonably expect to buy for the money we have allocated, we should be in good shape

Keeper Leagues. For keeper leagues, the process is not difficult. We simply pencil our frozen players into our budget form, placing them in the slot which that most accurately reflects their actual value. For example, if we have a $25 outfielder frozen at $12, then we put that outfielder in the $25 slot. We then take the savings we have accumulated from these frozen players, and use them to upgrade the other positions. This means we can target a $25 shortstop instead of being limited to a $15 player. On the pitching side, we do the same. We pencil in our freezes, and spread the savings among the other pitching slots. Now we put our new budget to work.

Using our Budget in Preparation for the Auction. As I mentioned last week, I don’t do practice auctions. I look at the results from other auctions, such as Tout Wars, but I rely more upon my predictions of what my league will likely pay for various players. Then I do an exercise in which I build roster after roster based upon the budget I have crafted, learning which combination of players will give me the statistics I’ll need to compete. Here’s how that works:

If we have done our draft prep properly to this point, we will have a list of all players likely to be purchased at the auction, and the projected dollar values of those players. Then we think in terms of what prices these players will actually bring in the auction. There will be some guys we believe will be overpriced at the auction, meaning they will go for more than they are worth. On the other hand, there will be players we believe will go for less than their actual value. These players will become targets for us, as will some players who may go for full price, but who we believe will meet expectations and remain healthy.

Making these judgments is generally easier in a league you have played in before, but you can still have a good idea who will be overpriced or under priced based upon hype, team he plays for, etc. For example, Mo Rivera will go for more than Joakim Soria in a lot of leagues, but for the money I would take Soria every time.

Now, having determined those players likely to be overpriced and those likely to be undervalued, and having targeted certain players as potentially good investments, we must identify players a) who are acceptable to us targets, and b) who are likely to be purchased for an amount close to what we have budgeted. In the AL we can forget about Felix Hernandez and Jon Lester, but we very well might land Max Scherzer, Jeremy Hellickson, or Brandon Morrow as our $20 anchor. We continue matching groups of players with each of our budget slots…ideally five or six possibilities at each position…and then do the same with the pitchers. We should consider contingencies as well. If we are shut out on our choices for 2B, can we make up for it by upgrading our SS or MI selections.

The Hard Part. Once we have generated a pool of targeted players for each roster spot, as well as alternatives based upon potentially adverse auction dynamics, we begin to put together different rosters based upon our target player pools and our budget. We tinker with them a bit. We imagine that we get Adrian Beltre early in the auction for only $20 of our $25 budget. We move that extra $5 to 1B, and now we are in the Adrian Gonzalez sweepstakes. We go through this process numerous times, imagining the various scenarios likely to unfold at the auction.

Each time we put together such a practice roster, we calculate the statistics the players would likely produce, based upon our projections. Then we compare those numbers against what it will take for us to compete.

This work is admittedly tedious. I used to do it on paper with a calculator. Now, I can do run these auction scenarios and statistical results using my draft software program. It calculates everything for me, and I can run a dozen different rosters in a couple of hours.

The point of this exercise is not just to get us used to working within our budget; we also become more adept at adapting to changing circumstances and adjusting our budget on the fly when necessary…saving a couple of bucks here and re-allocating it to another slot, or paying a few extra dollars to get someone we need and adjusting one or more slots accordingly. Most importantly, it gives us a realistic idea of how far our money will go and what kind of team we can put together. There is a very good chance, of course, the roster we wind up purchasing at auction will be better than our practice rosters, since there will undoubtedly be be a few bargains that fall our way.

Working the Budget in the Auction. The big day is here, and we’re ready for it. As we expected, the big names are getting tossed out early, and the bidding for them is hot and heavy. What should be be looking for?

One of three things will likely be happening: a) people will be very aggressive, all pumped up and overpaying, in which case we’ll sit back and let them overspend for a while, knowing the bargains will come later; b) owners will be more passive, meaning players could go under value, in which case we’ll wade in and start buying; or c) players will go for about what we think they are worth, in which case we will patiently and calmly execute our budget strategy. And patience is vitally important if we are to get the most out of our hard work and preparation. There have been auctions in which I didn’t buy a player in the first hour or more, only to buy six or seven in one round of nominations.

There shouldn’t be many circumstances in which we will bid substantially more for a player than we have budgeted. If we believe that Carl Crawford is absolutely crucial to our success in 2011, we should already have created a $40 budget slot for him. But, if we get carried away and spend $42 for Crawford when our budget for that slot was only $20, we likely will have caused problems executing the remainder of our budget plan. That’s where the discipline comes in.

On the other hand, what if we have $1 budgeted for a catcher, and we find Mike Napoli about to go for the bargain price of $6? Of course, we have to jump in and get him at $7 if we can. This is where the flexibility comes in. We don’t have to pass up a bargain just because it exceeds our slot allocation, so long as we find a way to allocate other budget dollars around to make up for it.

So, discipline and flexibility are the keys. We don’t want to find ourselves with $60 left late in the auction and nobody to spend it on. Likewise, we don’t want to find ourselves with $8 to spend and eight players to buy. I’ve seen people wind up in both situations, and it isn’t pretty.

Somebody may point out that in keeper leagues, it may be necessary to jump out early and make sure we get our fair share of the valuable players available. This is certainly true, but in a keeper league we will have factored the other owners’ projected freeze lists into our budget planning, and we will know who will be likely be available and have a sound idea of what it should take to acquire them. Then, after the final freeze date, we will have fine-tuned our budget and projections to account for any freezes we didn’t anticipate.

An Actual Keeper League Budget. The $182/$78 budget we worked through above is the actual budget I will use in my upcoming AL-only 5x5 Ultra redraft auction. In addition, I will use a similar budget in my 15-team mixed keeper league. Based upon my current plans for freezes, that keeper league budget will look like this:

C $4
C $4
1B $40
2B $15
3B (frozen $5)
SS (frozen $1)
CI $25
MI $5
OF $35
OF (frozen $33)
OF (frozen $6)
OF (frozen $4)
OF (frozen $3)
UT $2

P $20
P (frozen $5)
P (frozen $2)
P $20
P $15
P $10
P $2
P (frozen $1)
P (frozen $3)

This budget uses the same 70/30 split between hitters and pitchers. As you can see, the relatively low prices of my keepers allows me to allocate substantially more money for the players I will be purchasing. Of course, the specifics of this budget may have to be fine-tuned once final freeze lists are announced.

Inflation in this keeper league will be fairly high. Accordingly, it is important that I find some way to pay less than the inflated prices for the players I want. Otherwise, the profit I have built into my keepers will dissolve.

Let's Do the Twist. I have been using this budget approach since 1991, in keeper leagues and redraft leagues, but with a tactic that I haven’t seen the experts suggest. It may seem counter-intuitive, given what we have talked about so far, but it has worked well for me. If you take little else from this article, you may want to remember this little twist:

Conventional strategy and tactics for using a budget system as I have described ($182/$78) assume that I will actually spend $182 on offense and $78 on pitching. The assumption is that if I save $3 on a starting pitcher, I will add that money to another pitching slot. However, I do it differently, and for a reason.

If I save money on a pitcher, I don’t spread those extra dollars among the other pitching slots. Instead, I move that money to the offensive side of the ledger. Ideally, I will be able to spend at least $200 total on my offense. This strategy is justified by the fact that hitting is more reliable than pitching, and the fact that there is usually a large amount of pitching value left in the player pool after the auction.

Whether we tap into that extra pitching value by a reserve draft or by free agent pickups, it is usually much easier to bolster our pitching after the auction than to improve our offense. And the stronger our offense, the more options we have for improvement through trades and other in-season management techniques.

Well, there is this week’s article. I don’t expect that readers will rush out and copy the approach that I use. But I hope that it did give you some insights as to how you can use a budget to give yourself a competitive edge…and also explain why some of your fellow owners are pulling their hair out after the auction.

Good luck, and have fun.

2011 AL-Only Sleeper: Mitch Talbot

Mitch Talbot has been around.

I don't mean to make him sound that half-full container of sour cream in the back of your refrigerator. Just that he has seems to have been floating around baseball for a while before landing with the Indians in 2010. He isn't exactly old, he'll turn 28 at the end of the season. But because he has floated around it becomes easy to label him as a journeyman and dismiss him as a fantasy baseball factor, but that would not be fair. As the champion of fairness in these parts, it is up to me to make a case for Mitch Talbot: 2010 Sleeper!

Talbot has pitched exactly 169 innings in the major leagues. He achieved the bulk of them (159 IP) starting for the Cleveland Indians during the 2010 season. He wasn't an amazing performer but in an AL-only league he was useful. He collected ten wins, a 4.41 era, and 1.49 whip, with peripherals that looked like this: .301 BABIP, 69.4 percent LOB, .73 HR9, 4.97 K9, 3.90 BB9, and a 47.8 percent GB rate. Talbot's overall numbers match his FIP almost exactly. Pretty crappy, eh? Now look at his career minor league numbers:

1.30 whip, 9.05 H9, .62 HR9, 2.64 BB9, and a 7.41 K9 - Nothing amazing there, but consider this. If you throw out a horrible (7.78 era, I usually hate doing that but here it feels right) month of August and his strong finish in September, I think Talbot can help an AL-only pitching staff. He'll also do it for pennies. The Cleveland Indians are going to shock a lot of people in 2010 with their rapid improvement. They have tons of talent and Talbot (and Talbot owners) should benefit.

Plus, he's a warrior who likes to beat on the Red Sox...unbiased Jon

AUCTION STRATEGY AND TACTICS

I was surprised and honored when Jon asked me to write a piece for Advanced Fantasy Baseball. I’ve never claimed to be an expert, but for the past 25 years, I have spent the better part of January, February and March preparing for fantasy baseball auctions of one type or another. So, I have picked up some ideas about what can increase your odds of having a good auction, and I’m happy to share them.
There are many ideas about what makes for a successful fantasy baseball season. Some say it is having the best projections. Others say it is having the best handle on player values, or doing the best job of in-season management. Some say it‘s a matter of luck. There was a recent survey, however, among the top fantasy experts in which “auction strategy and tactics” was named as the most important factor in winning. So, let’s explore that topic. Bear in mind that my favorite format is single league Ultra, but I think the concepts here will apply to most other formats.

Your Most Effective Eight Hours of Preparation. These are the eight hours of sleep you get the night before your auction. Anything you are likely to fit into your brain the night before the auction is almost certainly outweighed by the benefit or being well rested when the auction begins. It is fine to spend some time going through last minute developments, such as updates on position battles, injuries, etc. But you need that sleep. While it may seem obvious, it should be reiterated that an auction can be a test of endurance, and of your ability to maintain focus for 8 to 10 hours. If you are sleepy, or hung over, you have given your opponents a huge advantage. A good night’s sleep followed by a shower and a light breakfast can tilt the odds in your favor.
On a related issue, sobriety during the auction can be critical as well. I have seen many smart owners screw up their auctions because of too many adult beverages.

In-draft Materials. For years, I would go into auctions with a single sheet of letter sized copy paper, upon which I had written everything I needed to have with me. Other guys would bring notebooks, lists, all kinds of books and magazines, almost more than they could carry and certainly more than they could keep up with in an auction. If you are adequately prepared, the amount of materials you need should be minimal. If you find yourself looking at a book in the middle of the auction to see if you want to go another dollar on a guy, that should be a clue that you didn’t do enough preparation.
Nowadays, I use a laptop and auction software. It can have its advantages, but you must be familiar enough with the software that you can use it while staying in touch with the flow of the auction.

Price Enforcing. Price enforcing, by definition, is bidding up a player you don’t want in order to keep another owner from getting him at a bargain price. However, the reality is that there will be some bargains in the auction, and not all of them will be yours. The danger in price enforcing is that your auction can be seriously damaged by the purchase of a player you don’t want and don’t need. Yet every year I hear owners lament that they were caught price enforcing. Some will rationalize by saying they are happy with the player they bought. Malarkey.
If you wanted the guy at that price, you weren’t price enforcing, you were just bidding. Let someone else be the bargain police if they want to. There is no percentage in it for you.

The auction is not about baseball. The auction is about money management. The auction is about economics, gamesmanship, and brinksmanship. While you are trying to assemble a roster with the most possible projected value, a roomful of other owners are trying to do the same thing by going after the same commodities you have targeted.
But all men (and women) are not created equal when it comes to handling an auction. I have one friend who can walk into an auction completely unprepared, pick up a good sheet of projections and have a great auction. He has the instincts of a gambler, thinks fast on his feet, understands the economics of fantasy baseball, and never loses his cool. Conversely, I have another friend who knows everything about every player on every team, as well as all their farm system. Yet this fellow never has a stellar auction. He cannot translate his knowledge into success at the auction table. He cannot figure the angles when it comes to constructing a winning roster using a limited amount of money. The point? Spend time thinking about the auction. Visualize it. If you have a Plan A, you better have a Plan B and a Plan C. Better, you should have a broad idea of what you want to do, and the awareness to be flexible when necessary to achieve it.
I personally don’t do on-line practice auctions. But I do construct roster after roster based upon my projected auction prices, and compare them to see which combinations will best give me the numbers I will need in order to have a competitive team.

Player Values. This was a lesson hard for me to learn. Projections are not precise, and even if they are, the value they represent is dependent upon many unknowns, including the performance of the other players in the league. So, instead of thinking of someone as a $27 dollar player, think of him as a player in the $25 to $30 range. It will help you as you stratify players in your personal rankings and preparations. It will also give you the confidence to go an extra dollar or two for the guy you really want.

Hold the Cheering. Cold as it may sound, you should not think about the players as individuals, no matter how big a fan you may be. I’m not saying that you should ignore a player’s changing role, new team, or injury situation; those will factor into your preparation. But, in the final analysis, you are not buying names, but the numbers you hope they will produce.
Back in the day, I overspent for my favorite player, Ozzie Smith, every year. I finally saw the light and bought a bobble head doll.
A corollary of this is “don’t be a homer”. A home run in the Bronx doesn’t help you any more than one hit in the Twin Cities.

Early Nominations. A person could write a dissertation on what type of players should or should not be nominated in the early rounds of the auction. I’ll keep it simple: watch carefully what happens. If guys are excited and are overpaying, don’t throw out the name of someone you really want. If guys are laying back a little, nominate one of your targets and you might get him for a buck or two less, especially if you nominate a second tier player while everyone else is thinking about the big stars.
If you just keep throwing out guys you don’t want, while others get them at good prices, it only makes it tough later, when you try to grab the guys that you do want.

Go Against The Flow. It is essential to keep up with the flow of the auction. It is unlikely that the owners, as a group, will consistently pay exactly what players are worth throughout the auction. The auction will ebb and flow, creating inefficiencies which will produce buying opportunities. If owners overpay in early rounds, there will often be a bidding lull, while they sit back and worry about how much money they have spent. You can use this to your advantage. You may not buy a single player the first hour of the auction, and then, when the time is right, buy six or seven players in one round of nominations. Conversely, if the early bidding is yielding bargains, you should wade in and start spending money. The other owners will be disappointed later when they are spending top dollar for second tier players. But, how do you know exactly how the auction is trending at a given time? Some can feel it, almost instinctively. I do it by keeping a simple tally. If a $28 player goes for $35, I’ll mark a +7. If a $23 player goes for $17, I’ll mark a -6. Use this to keep track of whether people are overpaying or underpaying. Eventually, the time of economic reckoning will come.

The Bidding Process. I believe that techniques used in bidding can make a difference over time. I typically bid in an even, almost monotone voice. I try to show no emotion, whether I am nominating someone I don’t really want, or nominating the player who may be the key to my draft. I do this for a couple of reasons. I don’t want to be read by someone who might decide to price enforce on a guy I want. I also don’t want to bid in such a manner as to fire up another owner’s competitive instincts. In fact, I would be perfectly happy if the other owners didn’t even notice me bidding…just so long as the auctioneer does.
There are various bidding gambits that people employ in an effort to gain an advantage. One is the jump bid, where instead of raising the bid by a dollar each time, you jump it up two or three bucks. Sometimes the other fellow is caught a little off guard and won’t come back with another bid.
Another is the plateau bidding. This is where you jump to a bid ending in a “9”, such as $9, $19, $29, $39, etc. The thinking is that the other bidder will be averse to taking the bid into double figures, or to the twenties, thirties, etc.
There are other gambits, and most people have their favorites. In my experience, they can prove effective, provided you do not use them too often, or try them repeatedly against the same owner.

Dumping A Category. Conventional wisdom says it is very hard to dump a category in a 4x4, but that it can work well in a 5x5. Most see dumping a category as a way to ensure a “money finish”, but not a title. Others feel it is next to impossible to employ this strategy successfully in a super-competitive league.
Here‘s a short war story about a fantasy baseball stretch run that may challenge your thinking about if, how and when the decision to dump a category should be made. “Bob” was in a league which was long established and very competitive. Bob was in contention, but well behind the leader. Bob’s starting pitchers had not performed well, and his team was way off the pace in Wins and Strikeouts. Since it was late in the year, Bob calculated that he could easily meet the Minimum Innings requirement. He figured out which other owners had players they could spare in trade. With this information in hand, Bob pulled off a series of trades, almost simultaneously, in which he swapped all of his starting pitchers for closers, short relievers and a couple of select hitters. Bob effectively dumped both Wins and Strikeouts, catching the leaders by surprise. He finished with 57 out of 60 hitting points, and first in Saves. With so many relievers, his ERA and Whip also improved dramatically. Bob won the title by a narrow margin.
The lesson? You can dump a category, but you shouldn’t necessarily go into the auction with the intention of doing so. You can never tell how the season will pan out, and it is impossible to predict what your standing will be in the various categories at a given time. Accordingly, if you are going to dump a category (or two categories, like Bob did successfully), you are better off waiting until the right opportunity presents itself.

The End Game. Long ago, you could squirrel away a little bit of money and then totally dominate the end game, grabbing up bargain after bargain while the other owners were helpless to stop you. Times have changed. Owners are much more sophisticated and, more importantly, patient. There will always be a couple of other guys with money at the end, and one of them will be targeting that very guy you were hoping to snare for next to nothing. So, is the end game irrelevant now? Not at all. It just needs to be played a little differently.
My thinking is that you should go ahead and get the guys you really want or need before the end game. Don’t save a lot of money. One of the worst things you can do is to have $25 at the end and nobody to spend it on. I like to have $8 or $9 in my stack and three or four players to buy. I always try to keep a couple of pitching spots open. In “only” leagues, there will almost always be a valuable middle reliever you can get for a buck who will earn seven or eight dollars. There may also be a couple of sixth starters…young guys in the pen being groomed to eventually join the rotation, and almost always better than whoever the fifth starter is. Make sure you know who is out there, what you need, what the other owners need, and the order of nomination. There can still be money made in the end game.

The Bottom Line. To conclude, it might be wise to think in terms of what you are trying to achieve during the auction. Say you have $260 to spend. Do you want to get your money’s worth? No. If you do, you will finish in the middle of the pack. You have to get more that your money’s worth. Some say you need to come out of the auction with $330 worth of value in order to be in contention. I think this number is a little high in an experienced, competitive league, so I look at it a little differently.
I believe you should strive to accomplish two things. Using your money management and auction skills, you should try to come out of your auction with a final roster, the value of which exceeds its cost by 10%. In a $260 league, that would be $286. More importantly, that roster should be composed of players who have a good chance, as a group, to exceed their projected values by 10%. Those two things would give you a roster with a potential value of $315. With good in-season management, you should have a chance to compete for the top spot in any competitive league.
Obviously, buying a group of players who will outperform their projections is easier said than done. The point is that you should be thinking in terms of players with upside whenever you can, not necessarily picking risky players, but choosing ones who are benefited by circumstances which would enhance their chances of bettering their projections.

In closing, I realize that many members of this site are true experts, and have forgotten more about fantasy baseball than I will ever know. Nonetheless, I hope that some part of the this article will benefit you as you plan strategies and tactics for your 2011 auction. Good luck, and have fun.

Looking for Wins? IP, GB%, and Strikeouts are Key

Starting pitching is often the bane of fantasy teams. Owners can't stand most of their starters and they wish their league didn't have an innings floor so they could draft all relievers (especially in K9 leagues). They usually fail to do well in the wins category anyway...

If the paragragh above describes your thinking or even comes close I've got some questions and answers for you.

How does a pitcher get a win?

1. He pitches at least five innings.
2. He is the pitcher of record, when his team takes the lead for the final time.
3. The bullpen doesn't blow it.

When you put together your pitching staff are you actually looking for wins?

1. Many of the owners I speak to are looking for pitchers on teams that score lots of runs.
2. They avoid pitchers on teams like the Royals and Indians (teams that lose a lot) and on teams like the Rangers and Rockies (play in offensive ballparks).
   
3. They usually find themselves in the middle of the pack in most pitching categories. They are avoiding risk but not grabbing skills.
   

Do the last two questions correlate in any way?

1. No.
2. Seriously, no.

So, what should you look for in a starting pitcher?

1. First, acknowledge that wins are a weak statistical category and have only a little relation to a pitcher's skill. Now, you're saying "a little? I thought it was no relation. " Think of it like this. If you or I went out to face the Yankees' lineup, we would have to get extremely lucky to get even one win with the world's greatest defense and pitching in the world's greatest pitcher's park. As a pitcher's skill level increases the chance of getting wins increases. So, yes, there is at least a little skill involved in gaining wins.
2. Innings. The more innings the better the chance of gaining wins. An innings horse is most likely to pitch at least five innings. An innings horse will pitch through the innings covered by the weakest park of his team's bullpen. An innings horse just might pitch a complete game and leave just the final score out of his hands.
   
3. I have a league mate that HATES adding innings to his staff. He believes that with innings come bad innings, and a poor pitcher with lots of innings will just drag his team down. That's kinda true. This is why you have to make certain that the pitchers you draft or buy at auction have certain skills. The ability to strikeout batters and the ability to induce weak groundballs.
4. Strikeouts are the key. As you may realize, strikeouts measure a pitchers ability to keep the batter from putting the ball in play. When the ball is in play, the outcome is very difficult to control. Some would say impossible, but that isn't true. Some pitchers are very good at inducing infield fly balls, which are usually as good as outs. I do my best to avoid pitchers with less than a 7.5 K9.
5. Groundballs are a good things. Especially the weakly hit ones. Even more so when they come from a pitcher with a high strikeout rate. This means that there are even fewer well hit balls in play than from a pitcher that does just one or the other. I do my best to draft a staff with a collective groundball rate of 45 percent or better.
   

Here is a list of the 31 starting pitchers with at least 190 innings pitched in 2010 and at least a 7.5 K9 rate. Look for young pitchers who finished the 2010 season with 140-160 innings that fit this criterion and you're looking at future aces you may get at a slight discount. But that's another article.

Name	Team	W	L	GS	IP	K/9	BABIP	GB%	ERA	FIP
Tim Lincecum	Giants	16	10	33	212.1	9.79	0.31	48.90%	3.43	3.15
Jon Lester	Red Sox	19	9	32	208	9.74	0.289	53.60%	3.25	3.13
Jonathan Sanchez	Giants	13	9	33	193.1	9.54	0.252	41.50%	3.07	4
Francisco Liriano	Twins	14	10	31	191.2	9.44	0.331	53.60%	3.62	2.66
Jered Weaver	Angels	13	12	34	224.1	9.35	0.276	36.00%	3.01	3.06
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	13	10	32	204.1	9.34	0.275	40.10%	2.91	3.12
Cole Hamels	Phillies	12	11	33	208.2	9.1	0.289	45.40%	3.06	3.67
Justin Verlander	Tigers	18	9	33	224.1	8.79	0.286	41.00%	3.37	2.97
Colby Lewis	Rangers	12	13	32	201	8.78	0.275	37.90%	3.72	3.55
Ryan Dempster	Cubs	15	12	34	215.1	8.69	0.294	47.40%	3.85	3.99
Ubaldo Jimenez	Rockies	19	8	33	221.2	8.69	0.271	48.80%	2.88	3.1
Max Scherzer	Tigers	12	11	31	195.2	8.46	0.297	40.30%	3.5	3.71
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	13	12	34	249.2	8.36	0.263	53.90%	2.27	3.04
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	20	11	33	230.1	8.32	0.275	51.60%	2.42	2.86
James Shields	Rays	13	15	33	203.1	8.28	0.341	41.30%	5.18	4.24
Dan Haren	- - -	12	12	35	235	8.27	0.311	40.50%	3.91	3.71
Wandy Rodriguez	Astros	11	12	32	195	8.22	0.303	47.90%	3.6	3.5
Roy Oswalt	- - -	13	13	32	211.2	8.21	0.253	45.70%	2.76	3.27
David Price	Rays	19	6	31	208.2	8.11	0.27	43.70%	2.72	3.42
Chad Billingsley	Dodgers	12	11	31	191.2	8.03	0.301	49.60%	3.57	3.07
Roy Halladay	Phillies	21	10	33	250.2	7.86	0.29	51.20%	2.44	3.01
Cliff Lee	- - -	12	9	28	212.1	7.84	0.287	41.90%	3.18	2.58
Ian Kennedy	Diamondbacks	9	10	32	194	7.79	0.256	37.10%	3.8	4.33
Edwin Jackson	- - -	10	12	32	209.1	7.78	0.313	49.40%	4.47	3.86
Ted Lilly	- - -	10	12	30	193.2	7.71	0.247	29.50%	3.62	4.27
Tommy Hanson	Braves	10	11	34	202.2	7.68	0.286	41.80%	3.33	3.31
Gio Gonzalez	Athletics	15	9	33	200.2	7.67	0.274	49.30%	3.23	3.78
Shaun Marcum	Blue Jays	13	8	31	195.1	7.6	0.279	38.40%	3.64	3.74
C.J. Wilson	Rangers	15	8	33	204	7.5	0.266	49.20%	3.35	3.56

When the Noise Becomes Interesting...

You do not have to search far to find a fantasy baseball analyst warning against trusting the noise generated during Spring Training. "He's in the best shape of his life" and "I'm definitely going to steal 40 bases this season" are the phrases that make us drool but are probably best ignored. It is about ignoring the subjective and concentrating on the facts. Nothing wrong with that. But once in a while the objective case needs the subjective ideas to form a complete picture.

LINK

According an arrest affidavit, a deputy spotted a car [Miguel] Cabrera was driving, smoking on the side of Okeechobee Road in Ft. Pierce, about 100 miles southeast of the Tigers' spring-training base in Lakeland. Cabrera had an odor of alcohol on his breath, his eyes were bloodshot and watery, and his speech was heavily slurred, according to the report.

In the arrest affidavit, deputies said Cabrera repeated, “Do you know who I am? You don’t know anything about my problems.” Cabrera then picked up a bottle of James Buchanan’s Scotch whiskey and started drinking, according to the report.

Miguel Cabrera has an alcohol problem. He is not willing to admit that at this point. The Tigers believed that they had nipped this problem in the bud after the 2009 incident. A stern talking to and a few apologies were never going to be enough to truly solve this problem. How do I know he has a problem with alcohol? If you get in trouble with the police because of your drinking, even if it is only once in every 365 nights you go drinking, you have a problem. But if you're paying attention you'll note that this is me applying my thoughts to to the facts about Cabrera. We are not supposed to do this.

If the Detroit Tigers think that a week of "rehab" is enough to address Cabrera's problems, they aren't taking his alcoholism seriously. The Tigers are now saying that he may make his Spring debut on Monday. 'Nuff said.

Now does that mean that Miguel Cabrera shouldn't be your first round pick? Tough to say. I have been criticized in the past for suggesting that I wouldn't draft Cabrera because of his untreated alcohol problems. In addition, I don't think he takes his position as the leader of the Tigers offense seriously. I don't believe he gives much consideration to conditioning. None of that makes him a bad person or even a bad player but in my opinion he is a serious risk to dash a fantasy team's championship hopes. It's 50/50, in the first round I want better odds.


LINK

At his long-awaited physical exam and official weigh-in Friday, [Pablo] Sandoval tipped the scales at 240 pounds, according to Ethan Banning of Triple Threat Performance, which coordinated his offseason conditioning regimen.

Sandoval weighed 278 pounds at the end of last season. He also reduced his body fat measurement from 30 percent to 19 percent, Banning said.

"That's not Mr. Universe, but it's a long way from where he was," Banning said.

Banning estimated that the 5-foot-11 Sandoval gained nearly seven pounds of muscle on the highly disciplined nutrition and training plan, so his total fat loss was closer to 45 pounds.

It is tough not to love Pablo Sandoval. Not only does he obviously love playing baseball, he looks like a lot of us. So when we hear that Kung-Fu Panda is in the best shape of his life, we cheer for him and then we ignore it. It won't improve his plate discipline after all.

I'm certain you'll let me know if any of the following subjective thoughts on Pablo Sandoval and his weight-loss/transformation stop making sense:

1. His agility and ability to play defense is likely to improve, at least to the level it was in 2009. In case you missed it, Sandoval was benched last year because of his defense, not his bat. So, he'll get more at-bats.
   
2. His endurance should improve. He should be stronger later in games and should require fewer late-inning substitutions. So, he'll get more at-bats.
3. His confidence is soaring. As we know, half of baseball is 90 percent mental.
   

What is the most important thing a player needs to have for offensive success? That's right, tons of at-bats. Sandoval is an excellent contact hitter who has good power (maybe even better now after training with Barry Bonds' boys) who looks like he'll get a ton of bats. Not only do I think Sandoval being in the best shape of his life is significant, I think it is the primary reason we can expect a big bounce-back season.

From the Process Report:

Bautista had a fantastic season and would have qualified for free agency at season’s end. Instead, the Jays essentially replace Vernon Wells’ dollars with a lone commitment and an equally risky one at that. There are no early opt-out or buyout opportunities involved here. Even if you just look at when Bautista got playing time and ignore that he couldn’t break into the lineup while playing for some extraordinarily poor teams, here’s what you’ll find:

Season (PA)/TAv/wOBA/OPS
2006 (469): .261/.326/.755
2007 (614): .269/.331/.753
2008 (424): .256/.311/.718
2009 (404): .272/.339/.757
2010 (683): .331/.422/.995

Bautista is an above average offensive player most years, but not by much. He appears to be a negative on defense, although his flexibility is a nice asset, and this is his 30-year-old season –leaving little doubt he will decline over the length of the deal. A replication of 2010 is highly unlikely, so being an above average player for the duration is the perfect world outcome. More likely? He earns some surplus on the front side and the Jays are ready to get rid of the deal by 2015.

When Jose Bautista signed his big new contract this week it was trashed by many of the smartest writers around. They look at the stats and see that Bautista's 2010 season sticks out like a sore thumb. It must be a fluke! How can a player go from slightly above average to suddenly great?

You won't always find the answer in the stats. Instead you need to look closer. Jose Bautista may have struggled to find a full-time role while with the Pittsburgh Pirates but think about that. The Pirates? They haven't won meaningful games in a decade and haven't done it two straight seasons in two decades. They are routinely trashed for making lousy personnel decisions. Until very recently they've struggled to develop major league talent despite having top picks in every draft of the last 20 years and certainly lacked the ability to coach them up. Even with the Pirates a closer look would have revealed a slightly flawed player with good power. The Blue Jays saw a decent player they could turn into a better one (the Red Sox did too, just sayin').

You can check out this detailed explanation by Frankie Piliere for the specifics. But the mechanical changes are very real and they matter. If he can maintain them there is no reason he can't remain at a new level of effectiveness. This isn't noise, these are facts.

I like that the Blue Jays signed Jose Bautista. Yes, it is a bit of a gamble but guys that can smack 50 homers a season are especially rare in the post-steroid era. If he has a strong follow-up season he would have gotten at least that and more. He can hit, hit for power and field two positions very well. This is not the next Vernon Wells contract.

Spring Training Points of Interest

And we're back...

Isn't Spring Training freakin' awesome? I love it. This is the time of year when I rarely watch any show that isn't on the MLB Network. So many rumors and stories to follow and many of them are fantasy relevant.

Michael Young is beginning to look like a future Florida Marlin. It seems odd to think that the Marlins would take on the salary of Young, and they are not likely to take on all of it, but they have become the favorites to acquire the Rangers' captain. The fish do have a huge hole at third base this year. They also have a ton of welfare money they've been sitting on. Young's numbers in Florida's pitching friendly stadium probably wouldn't be quite as good but he'd become a major part of a potentially awesome young lineup. If you aren't drooling over Mike Stanton's potential this season, you have not been paying attention.

Here are five other stories that should interest you:

The Top 50 Fantasy Sports Blogs

I would have linked to this article anyway, but being included on the list flattered and amazed me. I'll be checking out many of these sites myself. I wish I'd known about some of the basketball blogs a few months ago.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Albert Pujols

Some fans are starting to call Albert Pujols greedy for his contract demands but I don't think so. Most fantasy baseball participants understand that Pujols is the best everyday player in the game. You would be hard pressed to find any negatives on Pujols. This isn't Jayson Werth getting an inflated contract, this is the best player in the game looking to get appropriate compensation.

What Position will Jose Bautista Claim?

I've already covered what I think of Jose Bautista's ability to repeat his amazing power show in 2011. But will it happen at third base or in the outfield? The outfield is surprisingly shallow in deeper leagues where everyone is looking for five starters. Third base is pretty deep these days especially if you include some of the great prospects like Lonnie Chisenhall and Mike Moustakas. I vote for the outfield.

Can A.J. Burnett get it back?

I think so. Burnett has bounced back before so he can do it again. Plus, it is being kept quiet but apparently he dealt with a load of personal problems last season that threw off his focus. A.J. is also a pitcher that needs to be clicking with his catcher and that has been tough for him with the Yankees. I think Russell Martin can help here if he is healthy and effective.

Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau Comebacks in the Works

This may shock you. I'm am far more confident in the return of Joe Nathan to dominating closer than I am Justin Morneau to top notch first baseman. Nathan is already tossing the ball 90 miles-per-hour and swears he'll be ready to start the season. The Twins may want to hedge that bet but Nathan looks good and talks a great game. Justin Morneau has concussion problems that the thing about head injuries is that they don't just go away. In fact each concussion makes the next one ore likely. Scary thought.

I have an article on late round starting pitchers that has been in the works for a few weeks almost ready to go and the annual sleepers article will be posted very soon as well. Join the site by clicking the panel in the right side bar, go ahead, everyone is doing it.