Moving Up: Luke Hochevar and Juan Cruz

UPDATE: Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore announced on Tuesday that Joakim Soria has NO structural damage in his shoulder. This is great news. A couple of weeks rest and some ibuprofen should do wonders. ALSO: I'm in the same boat as everyone else who picked up Luke Hochevar and suffered a terrible blow to their ratios. Hopefully start two goes much better.

When the Royals placed Joakim Soria on the disabled list and moved Sidney Ponson (their only struggling starter) to the bullpen it created an opportunity for two players. Juan Cruz will be the interim closer for the Royals. Oh, they say it will be a committee but Cruz should see the majority of save chances. And Luke Hochevar, who was making the PCL look like Little League, joins the major league rotation.

Joakim Soria to the Disabled List

It has been obvious that there was something up with Soria, almost since the start of the season. He has pitched just about the bare minimum for a closer. The shoulder soreness has not seemed to affect his pitching when he has taken the mound which is hopefully an indication that the injury is not that debilitating. The Royals seem to think that a couple of weeks rest should do the trick but they are not saying much about it. We can only hope that they have taken all the appropriate steps to protect one of their best pitching assets. Soria should be held in every type of league. The temptation to make a panic move this time of year is huge but I encourage all owners to relax and find the best replacement possible.

Juan Cruz should lead the Royals new Closer Committee

If you are a Soria owner hopefully you might be lucky enough to pick up Juan Cruz. Cruz is an excellent pitcher who has been considered a great potential closer for years but has seen few opportunities. Cruz has not been at his best this season. His walk rate (always a little bit high) has elevated to 5.65 thus far this season. His strikeout rate is also a bit lower than usual at 6.91 compared to his 9.28 career average. Cruz is also a flyball pitcher who is inducing even fewer groundballs than usual. Fortunately, none of his weaknesses are showing in the results so far which means even though he is off to a shaky start his luck has improved. His FIP of 4.43 (1.88 earned run average) shows you the level he has pitched this season. Although you might normally scoff at picking up a reliever with so many bad indicators it should only be for a few weeks (we hope) and he'll collect valuable saves in that time.

The Hot Young Starter Everyone Wants: Luke Hochevar

The pitcher that every fantasy owner on the planet either tried to pick up or wished they could have over the last few days is Luke Hochevar. Hochevar flashed his ability in an otherwise mediocre debut season in 2008. The Royals banished him to triple-A this season to experiment with Sidney Ponson (lunacy I know). While Sidney Ponson was accumulating his typical numbers (on the bad side of mediocre) Hochevar was proving that he did in fact learn a few things in his 22 major league starts. In his six minor league starts this season pitched to a 0.90 ERA (3.10 FIP) by showing improved control and a little luck.

Hochevar is a extreme groundball pitcher with a good strikeout rate (expect something between 6.00 and 7.00) and very good control. The PCL is a hitters league and Hochevar's dominance in triple-A has mirrored Zack Grienke's in the majors. That is not to say I believe Hochevar will continue to be this good in the majors. I do believe that he will be a very good major league pitcher this season. He may have the typical ups and downs that young pitchers experience but all in all he should be worth picking up in leagues of all sizes and types.

Hochevar's Numbers:

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2006	Royals (A)	9.39	1.17	8.00	1.17	0.65	0.181	97.60%	3.40
2007	Royals (AA)	9.00	2.49	3.62	1.24	1.45	0.362	64.60%	4.02
2007	Royals (AAA)	6.83	3.26	2.10	1.71	1.28	0.260	69.80%	5.39
2007	Royals	3.55	2.84	1.25	0.71	1.18	0.246	84.30%	5.13
2007	Average	6.67	3.33	2.00	1.03	1.41	0.307	70.70%	4.47
2008	Royals (AAA)	6.23	3.12	2.00	1.04	0.98	0.196	70.40%	4.35
2008	Royals	5.02	3.28	1.53	0.84	1.47	0.310	62.30%	4.43
2009	Royals (AAA)	6.75	2.25	3.00	0.45	0.95	0.239	90.90%	3.10

The Royals' pitching just got even better

All-Star closer continues to battle shoulder soreness

Get to Know: Royals' two-start SP Hochevar

Poll: Do you prefer to be in leagues with friends or strangers?

Please excuse my experiments with different poll software. I think this one will work much better.

Moving Up: Chris Coghlan

The Marlins have called up second base prospect Chris Coghlan and it appears that he will soon replace week one hero Emilio Bonifacio in the starting lineup. The early plan is to have Coghlan play multiple positions but as essentially a regular in the lineup. He made his first start at his natural second base position and the next in the outfield. If Coghlan is productive and Bonifacio continues to slump a change could be made very quickly.

Coghlan is a disciplined hitter with strong contact skills. He has some pop and could hit around ten homers in a full season. He has just slightly above average speed but is a very good base stealer. He should accumulate 20-plus in a full season of at-bats. He is the player the Marlins project to eventually replace Dan Uggla at second base. Coghlan is a real prospect (Marlins #9 according to Baseball America) in a way that the well-traveled Bonifacio could never be. He will receive opportunities despite his production when Bonifacio could be replaced under similar circumstances.

Season	Team	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2006	Marlins (R)	2	7	2	0	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	0	0.286
2006	Marlins (A-)	28	94	28	5	1	0	14	12	13	9	5	2	0.298
2007	Marlins (A)	81	305	99	26	4	10	60	64	47	43	19	4	0.325
2007	Marlins (A+)	34	130	26	5	3	2	17	18	15	19	5	1	0.200
2008	Marlins (AA)	132	483	144	32	5	7	83	74	67	65	34	10	0.298
2009	Marlins (AAA)	25	96	33	9	1	3	21	22	12	10	9	1	0.344

Lance Berkman (and his Owners) Still Suffering

As if the slump wasn't problem enough, Lance Berkman is now complaining of a sore wrist. The wrist is so sore that he was only able to take five swings in batting practice before Friday's game. He says he hurt the wrist on Thursday night during a check swing. I am certain we will hear about an MRI exam soon. A wrist injury can seriously impact a hitter. I would bench Berkman wherever possible (I'm sure he is already benched in many leagues) and start searching for a long term replacement. While I hope this is just a short term injury, my gut is telling me it will not be.

In addition to the wrist injury Berkman seems to have lost considerable faith in himself. He compared himself to Andruw Jones and other players who have mysteriously lost their ability to hit productively. He was also scheduled to move down to fifth in the order (shocking that this had not already happened) and that has to contribute to his depression.

“I can’t believe it took this long to be moved out of the three hole,” said Berkman. “I’ve been awful. It’s really the only logical thing. I’m sorry that I’ve forced Coop’s hand to this point."

"Hopefully this will work a little bit better for the team. I don’t know, but I’d like to think that,” he said. “But you know it’s certainly a scary place to be when you don’t have any answers and you don’t see really any improvement in your performance."

"The only thing (is that) in 2007 it was similar because I felt pretty terrible all the way through May. That was the first. I could be the next Andruw Jones,” he said. “I mean, it’s possible and it’s unexplainable.”

Question of the Week: Which Slow Start Are You Most Worried About?

A new regular feature of Advanced Fantasy Baseball will be the Friday Question of the Week. I would love to get reader suggestions every week. You can e-mail them to Jon@AdvancedFantasyBaseball.com or just comment or twitter then to me at @bigjonwilliams.

pollcode.com free polls

Which Slow-Starting Star Are You Most Worried About?

Jimmy Rollins SS Philadelphia Phillies Lance Berkman 1B Houston Astros Josh Hamilton OF Texas Rangers Magglio Ordonez OF Detroit Tigers Matt Holliday OF Oakland Athletics BJ Upton OF Tampa Bay Rays David Ortiz DH Boston Red Sox Derrek Lee 1B Chicago Cubs Milton Bradley OF Chicago Cubs Garrett Atkins 3B Colorado Rockies

Manny Ramirez Suspended for 50 Games

From the LA Times:

Manny Ramirez has tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs and will be suspended 50 games starting today, The Times has learned.

The test result and suspension is expected to be announced later today. The Dodgers informed triple-A outfielder Xavier Paul this morning that he was being promoted to Los Angeles.

This is going to be a huge blow to those teams counting on Ramirez, especially in NL-only leagues. The Dodgers are likely to use Juan Pierre as a starter now. Pierre is not the player he once was but he should still provide a safe batting average and a few dozen steals playing regularly.

Xavier Paul is an interesting prospect. He has mid-teens power and steals bases at a nice clip. He's probably good enough to start for the Pirates or another team with a weak outfield. I feel I know Joe Torre well enough to predict that Pierre will get the bulk of the available playing time over an inexperienced kid.

To Read: Chipper Jones Interview

A member of the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable has secured an interview with the Atlanta Braves star third baseman, Chipper Jones. Since we always support our friends I am pointing out the interview so that you all (or y'all if you prefer) may enjoy it.The interview appears a few inches under the banner and breaking news at the top of the page.

The Chipper Jones Interview

Trade Advice: Shields/Berkman and Jones/Cruz

Hi Jon,

I'm in a mixed 6 team keeper roto league. I'm considering trading James Shields for Lance Berkman. Both of these players will become free agents at the end of this season. Berkman is suffering from some bad luck with his low babip as we all know. Possibly a good buy low situation?

It is important to note that the rest of my staff includes: Webb, Garza, Cain, Harden, Gallardo and Billingsley. I will surely go over my IP limit with 7 starters.

Thanks,
Jason

Hey Jason, in a six team league (assuming normal size rosters) I imagine there is decent talent available on the waiver wire in case of injuries. I love your pitching staff but with Brandon Webb having injury problems and Rich Harden's history of injuries it is important that you have some emergency options. Your staff is excellent and you are correct that if everything goes well you should easily meet most innings limits even without Shields on your roster.

James Shields is an excellent pitcher. He induces groundballs which helps limit the number of homers allowed. The Tampa Bay Rays have emphasized to their pitchers the importance of pitching to contact and allowing the defense to do its part. This has resulted in a significant drop in strikeouts by the starters. Shields has gone from a K/9 of 7.70 in 2007 to 6.70 in 2008 and just 5.05 thus far in the 2009 season. This is dragging down his fantasy value in 5x5 leagues. In addition, his BABIP is a very low .245 which indicates that a correction could be coming along with a potential jump in earned run average. This is not a pitcher to avoid, but his value looks like it could drop off from previous seasons.
Lance Berkman has started slowly. He suffered from a biceps injury that caused him to miss a few days early this season. This was reported as a minor injury and we haven't heard Berkman complain about it since his return. But he is presently batting .189 with six homeruns. His walk and strikeout rates are both a little higher than usual. His power seems as good as usual. This definitely looks (as Jason suggested) like just bad luck caused by a his pathetic .182 BABIP.

I would make this trade in an instant if I were in Jason's shoes. You probably won't have another chance to get Berkman at a value like this again this season as he is showing signs of breaking out of the slump.

Hi Jon

Great site and valuable insights. Wanted to get your thoughts on a trade offer. I'm strong in steals/runs, but need some power. Another owner has offered me Nelson Cruz in exchange for Adam Jones. While both players are at a peak right now, I'm not quite sold on Nelson maintaining his value through the year.

What do you think?

Thanks
Dan

Thanks for reading Dan. I like both players and I did write ups on them very recently. You can check them out here and here. I have faith that Nelson Cruz can continue to hit at his current power pace. The average could take a dip but I have faith that if healthy he will hit thirty homers this season. I like Adam Jones just as much and I think Jones will be a better player in the long term.

You did not provide too many details about your league but assuming there is not anything strange these two players are pretty equal in my eyes for the 2009 season. In a keeper league I would not part with Adam Jones because I believe his future is brighter. I also do not believe that there is a significant enough power difference between the two that would make this trade worthwhile for you. If you really want to move Jones for a power hitter I would aim much higher.

If you have a fantasy baseball question or need some advice please do not hesitate to contact me by e-mail (jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com), by commenting on the blog (you're halfway there already), Twitter me (@bigjonwilliams), or by instant messenger (bigjonempire on both AIM and Yahoo).

Now on the Waiver Wire...

The latest edition of The (Waiver) Wire is now up on Crucial Sports. As usual it features a mix of players that may be available in a wide variety of leagues. You can check it out as always by following this link:

The (Waiver) Wire A small sample:

The Mets have more than their fair share of problems this season. David Wright is doing his annual Augie Ojeda imitation. Doc Gooden signed the newly painted walls of Citi Field. In addition, Darryl Strawberry shared what he and Wilt Chamberlain have in common. With all of this happening, it would be easy to miss Jerry Manuel falling in love with Omir Santos. Santos came up through the Yankees’ system. He was considered one of those all glove no bat catching prospects. However, that has changed recently, and although he will never be a Russell Martin or Joe Mauer, he can certainly be an acceptable National League catcher in your NL-only league.

Trade Jose Reyes for Greinke, Jones, and Hill?

I'm in a 14 team 4 player keeper league that is now in its fifth year. I can't sleep at night with a feeling of buyers remorse after making a trade yesterday. I decided to deal my fantasy God Jose Reyes for Zack Greinke, Adam Jones, and Aaron Hill. I have owned Reyes since his career began but this trade seemed so interesting. Did I do the wrong thing here in getting rid of Reyes for possibly some players who could be over performing now. Honestly I just wanted to hear an outside opinion because I'm getting ripped apart on the boards in my league.

-- Scott

I think you can relax, Scott. I think you made a great deal for yourself. It is always hard when you give up the unquestioned best player in the deal. You are right that Zack Greinke probably will not have an earned run average under 1.00 for the entire season. Adam Jones is unlikely to bat for a .380 average. Aaron Hill may hit 20 homeruns but I would be shocked if he hit the 30-plus for which he is presently on pace. But that is no reason to worry.
Zack Greinke is becoming the ace pitcher he was always projected to be. He should be a Cy Young contender all season. He is striking out better than a batter per inning which is excellent for a starter but only slightly better than the pace has established over the last few seasons. His BABIP is .292 so far which indicates that he hasn't been particularly lucky with balls in play. He induces ground balls so he should limit the damage that flyballs can do as well. FanGraphs has him with an FIP of 1.38 (compare it to ERA if you aren't familiar -- with some luck factors removed) so it is not an illusion, he is in fact pitching like an ace.

Adam Jones has been projected as a potential 30/30 star outfielder by dozens of analysts including me. In addition, Jones was predicted to ready for a breakout entering this season by just about every fantasy writer in the business. He is being more patient at the plate so far with 9.1 percent walk rate compared to a 5.2 percent career rate. His contact rate has improved and swinging at better pitches naturally leads to better numbers. I believe the batting average will come down to the .290-.300 range. But the power? The power is here to stay. I think we're looking at a very real 30/30 ((okay, maybe 30/20) season in the making.

I've always liked Aaron Hill a little more than most. Probably because I drafted him as a minor leaguer in my primary AL-only and he contributed to a championship. Hill is getting lucky at the plate so far. His walk and strikeout rates are right at his career averages. His BABIP is at .388, almost 70 points over his career average. His career high in homeruns is just 17 (hit the year before his injury) but at age 27 he would not be the first player with experience to see a power spike. I doubt he hits 30 homers but a career high in the 20-25 range would not be ridiculous. His average will come closer to his career .289 average. Some might consider this a disappointing analysis but a .290 average with 20-plus homers from second base is not a bad thing.

I have to assume Scott, because he made the deal that he is not concerned with stolen bases because this is the area you will no doubt lose the most. Jose Reyes is in a mini-slump after starting the season fairly hot. This is mostly the result of an unlucky streak. His BABIP is .283, almost 40 points below his 2008 level and 27 points below his career level. I am not at all worried about Reyes' production. Jones will lessen that loss slightly but the big benefit in this trade is in homeruns, Runs, RBI, and adding the (presently anyway) best pitcher in baseball. You should relax Scott, and tell your league mates they can drink out of your championship trophy at the end of the season...after they admit they were wrong.

Trade Advice: B.J. Upton for Nelson Cruz

Hello Jon,

I'm in a mixed 18 team head to head, keeper, points league. I have just been offered BJ Upton for Nelson Cruz. This looks to be a classic buy low, sell high trade but Upton's high stikeouts and .152 avg scare me. Is he healthy and do you think he will turn his season around? Thanks

James in San Diego

This is definitely a tough one, I'm going to assume that there are no salaries to be concerned with here. I do think that B.J. Upton will come around eventually. As Jason Grey of ESPN recently wrote - it takes a while for a batter coming off shoulder surgery to regain his swing. Some batters will take longer than others. And judging by the struggles that other players like Travis Hafner, Shawn Green and Carlos Quentin endured after their surgeries expecting Upton to recover quickly looks like a long shot. Upton was still recovering from the injury when the season started and I believe that he rushed to get back on the field, possibly to his own detriment. This does not mean I would give up on Upton if I owned him (and I do in a few leagues). Upton is striking out a lot right now and appears to be experiencing some bad luck with balls in play (.231 BABIP). I think at some point (possibly after a stint on the disabled list) Upton will not only get it together but explode in production.

But you don't own Upton, you own Nelson Cruz who is playing great right now. I do believe that Nelson Cruz will establish himself as a major league player this season. He is already on pace for 30-plus homers and around 20 steals with about a .280 batting average. I believe Cruz will only get better when Josh Hamilton returns to the lineup and starts to hit. Cruz does have a very high BABIP right now (so his batting average could come down a bit) but he has been maintaining a high BABIP for the last few years in the minors and I believe his normal level is still a pretty high .330 or so.

Everything being equal I believe Upton is capable of putting up better numbers than Cruz. However, I cannot endorse trading Cruz for Upton right now. You just aren't getting enough of a discount in my opinion. If Upton continues to struggle you may get him for even less of a value than Cruz (assuming the owner does not move him to someone else first). I would counter with a lesser but still fairly productive player and see if he bites. Otherwise my advice is to wait a little longer. You may end up without Upton but you also will not have to suffer through the rest of his recovery and adjustment period.

If you have a fantasy baseball question or need some advice please do not hesitate to contact me by e-mail (jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com), by commenting on the blog (you're halfway there already), Twitter me (@bigjonwilliams), or by instant messenger (bigjonempire on both AIM and Yahoo).

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Continues

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is being hosted by RotoAuthority.com (respect it!) and Tim Dierkes has asked the collected members:

Here on April 30th, what is your single biggest fantasy baseball regret of the year?

Check out a wide variety of answers from some of the best Fantasy Baseball Bloggers in the business.

Moving Up: David Aardsma

He has been a potential closer for longer than is recommended. He has shown better stuff than results...until this season that is. With the Seattle Mariner closer Brandon Morrow, on the disabled list with right biceps tendinitis (a minor but annoying problem for a pitcher who is called on multiple times a week) David Aardsma is the favorite to see save opportunities.

Aardsma has pitched very well for new Mariner manager Don Wakamatsu. Wakamatsu demonstrated that he would not hesitate to use Aardsma in a save situation just last week and Aardsma succeeded without incident.

"You've seen the value of having two guys that have the stuff and the makeup to do the job," manager Don Wakamatsu said Sunday to MLB.com.

One of the tenets of Advanced Fantasy Baseball is "ride the hot arms until you cannot ride them any longer." Aardsma is pitching very well pick him up and use him until he stops pitching well. If you need saves he is one pitcher that is still available in a lot of leagues about to get the chance to close.

Brandon Morrow to the Disabled List

The Mariners Closing Duo

Moving Up: Matt LaPorta

With Travis Hafner on the disabled list the Cleveland Indians have called up top outfield prospect Matt LaPorta. LaPorta of course was the key reward when the Indians dealt CC Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers. He should be picked up in all but the shallowest of leagues. He begins by platooning with David Dellucci but if he continues to hit the way he was at triple-A that won't last long.

LaPorta has amazing power and should eventually hit for a good average. He has good contact skills but still needs to develop more patience and discipline at the plate. In a full season of at-bats he could easily hit 30 homeruns and is likely to approach forty once he adjusts to the major leagues. This season I would expect something in the 260-270 range with 25-plus homers if he stays in the majors the rest of the season. He is likely to be streaky as pitchers adjust and he adjusts back to them. But those hot streaks will be what fantasy owners live for -- like the older players in your league when they talk about Darryl Strawberry's epic streaks.

IMPORTANT: Do not sleep on Luis Valbuena who was also called up. He could very well be starting before the end of the week. He has pop and speed and qualifies at second base.

Season	Team	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2007	Brewers (R)	7	27	7	1	0	2	4	4	1	8	0	0	0.259
2007	Brewers (A)	23	88	28	8	0	10	18	27	7	22	0	1	0.318
2008	Indians (AA)	17	60	14	1	0	2	6	8	4	12	0	0	0.233
2008	Brewers (AA)	84	302	87	23	2	20	56	66	45	63	2	1	0.288
2009	Indians (AAA)	21	75	25	4	2	5	22	14	9	10	0	0	0.333

LaPorta called up and ready to play

Matt LaPorta and Luis Valbuena Ready for Impact

Hot Prospect Profile—MATT LAPORTA

Me, Albert Pujols, and the Magic Lamp

I was walking around the perimeter of the little league field scouting for future big leaguers I could take in my farm system drafts when I tripped over some junk behind the center field fence. Russell Field was very deep in center field (for a little league park) thus very few people wandered this way. I pulled myself back onto my feet, holding the fence for support. I kicked the pile of junk and saw what appeared to be an old kerosene lamp. I picked it up and rubbed the face of it with my sleeve -- more in the interest of keeping the gunk off my hands than actually cleaning it. It suddenly became very hot and I dropped it. It began to smoke. I started to walk away quickly but then the smoke began to take the shape of a man who looked an awful lot like Albert Pujols if you discounted the fact that he had wisps of smoke rather than legs.

I stood in stunned silence starring at what I was certain was an hallucination of some kind. It reminded me of the time I thought I saw a giant space craft floating over Malden Square. I don't do drugs and I was not drinking this time. The smokey man was adjusting his sweater vest which looked very tacky over his otherwise bare torso. He said something to me but it did not register. He repeated it but much louder.

"Thank you for freeing me," he said. "I've been trapped in that thing since the seventies."

I really wasn't sure I wanted to enter into conversation with my delusions so I just nodded. He seemed slightly annoyed with me as if waiting for me to do something. I tried just turning and walking away, I had settled on the idea that I was dehydrated and should pick up a bottle of water as soon as possible. But the smokey Pujols appeared directly in front of me as if he had been there all along.

"Apparently you do not know how this works. I am a Baseball Genie. I can influence events and give you knowledge of baseball beyond all men. As the person who has freed me from my captivity I will allow you five wishes."

"Five," I asked. "I thought genies customarily only allowed three wishes."

"Are you complaining or would you rather not have any wishes at all?"

"Uh, okay sorry about that. Can you give me enough money to buy the New York Yankees and still have billions to spare?"

"Are you not listening? I am a Baseball Genie. I do not have the power to grant wishes that are unrelated to baseball. So I cannot give you money or make any part of you bigger or smaller. I cannot make girls fall in love with you or make being fat cool."

"Fine. You don't have to get all testy about it. You being a lame genie is not my fault."

"I walk perfectly fine when I choose not to float. I am growing tired of this. What are your five wishes?"

WISH ONE

I wish to have a perfect understanding of baseball. I want to be able to look at stats or see a player on the field and instantly know exactly what his potential is. I want this understanding to also include what general managers are thinking when they make personnel changes. Eventually word of my outstanding understanding will reach general managers and owners everywhere. But I would turn down offers from every team except the most pathetic franchises. The worse the team the more likely I would be to help. Just think what that would do for my blog!

WISH TWO

I wish steroids has never existed. I wish every achievement in baseball history was completely untainted by anything having to do with performance enhancing drugs. I am assuming that this would result in Barry Bonds being perceived as a Hall-of-Fame bastard, rather than a bastard who will never be in the Hall-of-Fame. Mark McGuire, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro, and Jose Canseco could all be fun again.

WISH THREE

I wish MLB Opening Day was a National Holiday. We have so many stupid holidays for so and so's birthday and to honor this group and that group. Just think how many people could avoid lying to their bosses or using up vacation days. We could have parades in the morning (parades in April have to be better than parades in January, right?) and barbecue traditions after the game. Since everyone had the day off all the games could be day games.

WISH FOUR

I wish everyone played fantasy baseball the way everyone listens to music. I know not everyone listens to music but the people who never listen to any music at all are few and far between. I want fantasy baseball to be integrated into normal life that way. Think about it, kids would want to learn advanced math to improve their ability to understand baseball through statistical analysis. Men and Women of all ages would have another common point of interest. Parents could tell their children stories of the days when every league was either American League or National League and they never mixed and their children could be annoyed about it.

WISH FIVE

I wish that every kid would play baseball. I want baseball to be everyone's favorite sport. I never want to pass a baseball field again that isn't either covered with snow or kids playing ball. I want little league to be like the cub scouts used to be before too many scary things happened. I want being on a little league team to teach kids the values that so many do not seem to be learning. I want kids to learn to work together and to support each other. I want baseball to work through children to eliminate prejudice. I want baseball to be too important to be tainted by petty differences.

"Damn you sound like a beauty pagaent contestant," the genie laughed. "But I like it."

He winked and made some odd gestures with his hands. There was a distant rumble and he blinked out of site. I can only hope my wishes come true.

Now, Back to the other kind of fantasy baseball...

The Injuries Pile Up Quickly

Dealing with injuries is probably the toughest thing a fantasy owner has to deal with during the season. In deeper leagues it can be incredibly difficult to find replacements capable of putting up acceptable numbers, especially when it comes to pitchers. Sure, there are usually lots of arms on the free-agent list but rarely are they the types you want to have on your roster for a month or two. I judge whether or not to replace a particular player with a particular free agent on a few different criteria.

1. Do the league rules allow me to drop a player at will? In leagues that force you to hold on to replacement players until the original player returns or the replacement is himself disabled or sent to the minors, I will often avoid picking up previously unknown quantities.
   
2. Is the player being replaced expected to be out longer than two weeks? If a player is going to be out for the season (especially when the injury occurs in April or May) I will hold off on replacing them (as rules allow) until I can find a good long term replacement. I don't want to risk being stuck with Omir Santos all season if I have no chance of dumping him.
3. How good is the team of the potential replacement? This can be tricky but I would prefer to find replacement on good teams. This is because a good team is unlikely to keep a player around who fails to produce. Unfortunately, the good teams will sometimes just keep the player on the roster (especially pitchers) and use them in the absolute worse situations --blow outs and in the 14th inning when there are no other options.
4. Could the potential replacement win a regular role if he does well? I love when this happens. Right now, I'm hoping Garrett Mock and Omir Santos turn into regulars. Top prospects and older veterans are great for this type of speculation. At some point this season I hope to take a chance on Jim Edmonds and Pedro Martinez.
5. How desperate am I am for at-bats or innings? Under normal circumstances I would not go near a player a like Augie Ojeda but when the injuries start to pile up at-bats become very important. You want to remain competitive in runs and rbi and even the worst players when they continue to receive at-bats can help you in these categories. When I'm desperate for innings things are a little different. Obviously you don't want to pick up a pitcher just because he pitches a lot. That's a good way to end up with the worst Rockies type starter who will almost certainly blow up your ERA and WHIP. If you can add/drop players at will you can just rotate between favorable starts. Otherwise I suggest you pick the pitcher with the highest combination of groundball rate and strikeout rate. Hopefully that pitcher will be on a good team with a good defense.
   

Orioles expect Mora back Friday

Soria tests shoulder, throws on Sunday

McLouth's return likely a few days away

Derrek Lee day-to-day with neck spasms

Mauer targets Friday return to Twins

Girardi hopeful Damon can return to action on Monday

With Drew on DL, D-backs shuffle roster

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is up at FantasyPros911. The question of the week:

Would you prefer to have Howie Kendrick or Aaron Hill for the remainder of the season?

You can check out the various answers right here.

Advanced Fantasy Baseball

Happy Birthday to me. I only mention it because I would like something from everyone who visits the site today. I want you to tell me how I can improve this site. How to make it a site you'd like to visit everyday.

Please leave a comment, send me an e-mail, twitter me, find me on facebook...whatever way you like. If you aren't into fantasy baseball that doesn't mean you can't comment. Just judge the site on other criteria.

Thanks.

The Yankees Re-Boot their Pitching Staff

Sometimes I wonder why the Yankees (and every other big market team) have to see things fail before they make the moves that seem so obvious to me and I'm certain many others. The Yankees finally placed Chien-Ming Wang on the disabled list to give him time to re-build his arm strength. Brian Bruney and Cody Ransom also hit the disabled list. They recalled closer of the future Mark Melancon and the talented David Robertson to fill roles in the bullpen. Angel Berroa who looked great this spring had to wait for Cody Ransom of all people to get hurt before getting a job.

I thought it was obvious at the end of the 2008 season that those two players would have big roles to play in the 2009 bullpen. It also seemed as if the Yankees knew it too. But rather than give them jobs to start the season they insist on working with lesser talents and blow a few games before doing what they knew months ago they would do eventually. But maybe I'm missing some subtle ability in Cody Ransom and some skill that Robertson and Melancon were missing that a few weeks in the minor leagues solved...

Owners in American League-only should grab Melancon as soon as possible. He should take over the eighth inning role this season and eventually replace Mariano Rivera as the Yankees closer. David Robertson is another option for the Yankees that I like a lot. He has great stuff and should provide strikeouts in bunches. He has control issues at times like most young pitchers but has shown improvement lately. The Yankees released Humberto Sanchez which seemed unnecessary to me. I can think of a few names I would rather dump before giving up on him. Though again, the Yankees probably have some information I don't. Seriously, they probably do.

Phil Hughes, who I suggested to anyone who listened as a bullpen candidate out of spring training, is expected to get the call on Tuesday to start in Wang's spot. He is probably getting two starts on the road which is not really a bad thing. I sincerely believe that Hughes will never ride a minor league bus again. I'll be picking him up in every league possible. It wasn't so long ago that Hughes was more highly thought of than Joba Chamberlain.

Speaking of Joba...the Yankees need to stop babying him so much. I respect that they want to be responsible with his arm and put restraints on his pitch counts but I think its holding him back. From watching him, I think Joba pitches better when his arm is well stretched. In the bullpen he always seemed to pitch better when he had multiple outings in a week. When he went long stretches his control would leave him. This is not an argument that he should return to the pen. But rather that the Yankees should extend his pitch count a little and stop skipping him in the rotation. I still love Joba as a fantasy option he just won't do much good for fantasy owners or the Yankees until they stop treating him with kid gloves.

Mark Melancon Statistics

Mark Melancon Profile

Mark Melancon Spring Report

Scott Downs is the New Closer in Toronto

Scott Downs has become the new closer in Toronto after the Blue Jays disabled B.J. Ryan with "muscle tightness" which is actually code for "you suck majorly right now." Coincidentally this took place immediately after Ryan blew his second save of the season. Downs has been ready for an important role on the Blue Jays for a while and Cito Gaston has been waiting for an excuse to make the change since mid-March.

It doesn't seem likely that anyone that reads this blog is in a league where Downs is still available (I've been drooling over him for as long as Cito Gaston has wanted him in the role --since last season in other words) but it is definitely worth checking. He is an extreme groundball pitcher who strikes out nearly a batter per inning (far better than that so far this season) and plays in front of what is an excellent defense. There is nothing not to like here.

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2000	Cubs/Expos	5.85	3.71	1.58	1.21	1.67	0.341	0.71	4.97
2000	Cubs	6.03	3.54	1.70	1.24	1.64	0.340	0.71	4.93
2000	Expos	0.00	9.00	0.00	0.00	2.67	0.371	0.63	6.13
2003	Expos	12.00	9.00	1.33	6.00	2.67	0.402	0.58	12.03
2004	Expos	5.43	3.29	1.65	1.29	1.62	0.334	0.63	4.94
2005	Blue Jays	7.18	3.26	2.21	1.15	1.35	0.299	0.72	4.33
2006	Blue Jays	7.13	3.51	2.03	1.05	1.34	0.291	0.73	4.33
2007	Blue Jays	8.84	3.72	2.38	0.47	1.22	0.292	0.84	3.24
2008	Blue Jays	7.26	3.44	2.11	0.38	1.15	0.264	0.87	3.39
2009	Blue Jays	13.50	0.00	13.00	0.00	0.46	0.259	0.80	0.58

Cubs call up Samardzija; Bradley back in right

Pedro, Big Hurt, Edmonds among the free agents still looking for work

Angels should be a bit more worried, but they did call up Brandon Wood

Riske facing possible surgery Tigers designated hitter Marcus Thames out with 'major injury' to rib cage area

Another two-strikeout inning for Zumaya Oblique strain forces Romero to DL

Just A Little Trade Advice

The longer articles I promised last week are still in progress (just becoming very very long). I'm diverting my attention from those articles to offer a little advice. I received an e-mail from a reader, call him Jay. He wanted some advice on a trade. His AL-only team had some strength in pitching but definitely has some holes on offense. He was offered the following deal:

Jay Deals: Cliff Lee $3

Jay Receives: Travis Snider $10, Taylor Teagarden $4, and Joel Zumaya $5

Cliff Lee at $3 is a great deal but at his age I think his future is as a competent, slightly above average major league starter and not a perennial Cy Young contender.

Travis Snider gives the Jay the big bat he needs in the outfield. Although Snider is a rookie he has had no problem making adjustments and should be a top 20 American League outfielder in the very near future.

Taylor Teagarden fills the gapping hole Jay has at catcher. Teagarden should also gain at-bats as Jarrod Saltalamacchia makes much slower adjustments to the major leagues. Teagarden has good power and while he won't win any batting titles should hit for a decent average.

Joel Zumaya is a great pitcher when he's healthy which has not been often. I see him assuming the closer role for the Tigers in the second half of the season. Jay, as you may have guessed could also use some help in the saves department.

The players Jay is receiving should all be very keepable in an AL-only league. They also have great value to rebuilding teams (which I don't think Jay should consider just yet) and will either set him up well for the future or become bait for dumping teams. Either way I think this is a great trade for Jay.

In fact I can't see this trade as bad for Jay unless Lee threatens to win another Cy Young (not happening says my pyschic powers).

Good News and Bad News

The Good News is Miguel Cabrera is staying put on the Detroit Tigers. This means that his AL-only owners do not have to fear losing one of the better hitters in baseball. The Bad News is that Miguel Cabrera is still on one of the lesser teams in the American League. The Tigers do not have a bad lineup but just because they won't consider trading Cabrera does not mean they won't trade any of their other hitters to improve the team in the long term, which would seriously impact Cabrera's production.

The Angels are considering a group of free agent starters that could be of interest to fantasy owners, which is Good News. General Manager David Reagins has contacted the agents for Pedro Martinez, Paul Byrd, and Mark Mulder. All of these pitchers have been fantastic fantasy options at one point or another. As a fantasy owner I am always happy when more options become available even if I am not the beneficiary. The Bad News is that these guys are all unemployed right now for a reason -- their lack of production or health (sometimes both) in their most recent appearances.

John Lackey and Ervin Santana should begin rehab assignments soon. This is good news for those owners. If they both come back healthy and effective they could be among the better pitchers in the American League. The Bad News is elbow and shoulder injuries in pitchers are always a cause for concern. The rest and rehabbing they have done did not rid them of their problems but merely strengthened the area around the injuries. The hope is that this will allow them to ignore the problem for another chunk of time. That could be a matter of years or days.

Xavier Nady will not need surgery and may be able to return in a month or so, which is Good News. The Yankees and Nady's owners were counting on him to maintain the gains he showed in the last couple of years. Unfortunately (and this is the Bad News), Nady does have a partially torn ligament in his elbow. It could completely tear at any time which is why the Yankees are now considering using him as a designated hitter. Which means that Hideki Matsui will be in the field sooner and perhaps more often than we thought. It could also mean that the Yankees will have two DH's on the roster and both will be less productive (less at-bats) than projected.

Ryan Doumit will miss the next 8 weeks (at least) after wrist surgery. This has to be considered Bad News. I engaged in some twittering yesterday about Doumit replacements (you can follow me @bigjonwilliams) and the consensus in most AL-only leagues is that the pickings are quite slim. In some leagues Lou Marson is available (I can't see him receiving many at-bats but he can hit), or Jason Jaramillo (he is not a great hitter but there are worse options). In shallower mixed leagues you might find John Baker (a great hitter without much power) or Nick Hundley ( he has power but isn't much of a hitter). The Good News is that Doumit is projected to be back in 8-10 weeks so his return to your roster will seem like a nice post All-Star Break acquisition. I also revealed that I had an opportunity to trade for Geovanny Soto to replace Doumit but the asking price turned out to be too high in my opinion. My rebuilding league mate wanted Doumit $10A, Nate McClouth $12c11, and minor leaguer Brett Wallace for Soto $15A and Brad Hawpe $27. With Soto also banged up and struggling at the plate I thought this was way too much.

What the hell is wrong with Geovanny Soto?

Ryan Doumit out 8-10 weeks, having surgery

Xavier Nady's ligament is only partially torn

Angels' Reagins begins looking outside for pitching help

The Facts About Omir Santos and (much older) Santos Shakes Off the Rust

Xavier Nady Likely Out for the Season

UPDATE: According to Peter Abraham of the LoHud Yankees Blog, Xavier Nady will not require surgery on his injured elbow. Unfortunately the return date for Nady is still unknown.

The Best Yankees Blog on the Planet

Xavier Nady had Tommy John Surgery on his elbow in 2001 and he may need it again. He will be placed on the disabled list before Thursday's Home Opener.

From the New York Daily News:
Although nothing is official, Nady told several teammates that he was likely headed for Tommy John reconstructive surgery, the same procedure he underwent in Sept. 2001. That would knock him out for the rest of this season, leaving the start of 2010 in doubt for the free agent-to-be. Nady will be examined by team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad before Thursday's home-opener, at which time a final diagnosis will likely be released

For the New York Yankees and obviously Xavier Nady, this is bad news. Fortunately, Nick Swisher is still around and hot to boot. He is the obvious replacement in right field which is good for his owners but a problem for the Yankees' depth. Melky Cabrera will obviously get to hang around a lot longer. The Yankees will need some corner infield depth which with third baseman Alex Rodriguez out and first baseman Mark Teixeira's wrist bothering him when he bats right-handed was already a problem. Shelly Duncan is probably the first option. This may force the Yankees to consider some trade options. Players such as Hank Blalock and Dallas McPherson could be available.

In the short term, Nady owners in shallower leagues should check the waiver wire for Swisher, who with is hot start may already be out of reach. In deeper leagues, Melky Cabrera will see an increase in at-bats especially against left-handers. This could also force the Yankees to seriously consider A-Rod's claims that he could be ready by the end of April.

More as it comes together...

Eight (plus one) Pitchers That Improve Your Fantasy Team

Okay, they are not available in every league, but they are available in a surprising number of mixed leagues. Check out my latest article on Crucial Sports (posted Monday Afternoon) for write-ups and statistics on the following pitchers that can improve your fantasy team.

1. Manny Corpas
2. LaTroy Hawkins
3. Derek Holland
4. Justin Masterson
5. Garrett Mock
6. Franklin Morales
7. Carl Pavano
8. Glen Perkins
9. Jordan Zimmerman

Moving Up: Julio Lugo

With Jed Lowrie looking more and more like he will miss the remainder of the season, Julio Lugo's health and ability becomes huge for the Red Sox. Fantasy owners would probably prefer the more aggressive Lugo to Lowrie in any case. Lugo has shown the ability to steal 30-plus bases and hit 10-15 homeruns. His on-base percentage is not stellar but his other numbers (if he's healthy) could make that irrelevant.

On Friday Lugo had five plate appearances in a rehab assignment. According to Red Sox manager Terry Francona "Lugo ran the bases a couple of times and scored on an extra-base hit. " which would seem to indicate that he could return to action very soon. In any case, the Red Sox do not have a qualified major league alternative. All Lowrie owners should pick up Lugo if he is available. Any owner with a need for steals or an upgrade to their infield positions is advised to do the same.

Julio Lugo's FanGraph's Page

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is hosted by Patrick Cain of the Albany Times Union.

What "cold" starts are most concerning to you? Who would you look to trade before their value plummets even further? What makes you convinced that this is not just a slow start to 2009?

Check out the variety of great answers!

The (Waiver) Wire

You can read this week's edition of the (Waiver) Wire at Crucial Sports. Today, as it usually will, the article features several players available in various types of leagues.

Check out the (Waiver) Wire

...With DeWayne Wise sent to the disabled list, the Chicago White Sox once again return to Brian Anderson and Jerry Owens as options. Anderson will receive the first opportunity to solidify himself as the regular center fielder. Anderson was well thought of as a prospect but failed to live up to his potential. At best, he should hit for average with middling power. He does not have much above average speed (if at all) but will steal bases given the opportunity and manager Ozzie Guillen is likely to demand it of his leadoff hitter. Jerry Owens does not have the skills that Anderson has shown at times but he definitely has superior tools. Those tools are what make him a constant stolen base threat when he can find his way on base. Scott Podsednik signed a minor league deal with the White Sox after his late spring release from the Colorado Rockies. Podsednik was an effective leadoff hitter for the ChiSox a few years ago and should Anderson and Owens fail to deliver, Guillen would not hesitate to call for Podsednik’s return...

Read More

Daisuke Matsuzaka to Disabled List

The Red Sox have now placed Daisuke Matsuzaka on the 15-day disabled list. He left last night's game in the first inning after struggling with what the team called arm fatigue. It has been suggested that this is a result of his use during the World Baseball Classic.

The Red Sox have placed Daisuke Matsuzaka on the 15-day disabled list and recalled lefthanded reliever Hunter Jones from Pawtucket.
To read more, visit http://www.boston.com

This sounds relatively minor. Although any arm related problems are worrisome in pitchers this problem seems easily retified with a couple of weeks off. Owners should not panic, nor should they release Matsuzaka under any circumstances.

Lastings Milledge Optioned to Minors

This is ridiculous. Less than ten games into the season you send your starting center fielder to the minors? Obviously he was not off to the greatest of starts but again, less than ten days into the season. This will not do good things for Lasting Milledge's supposedly questionable attitude.

Via USA Today

WASHINGTON (AP) — Nationals center fielder Lastings Milledge has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse.

Milledge is batting .167 with no extra-base hits, one RBI, one walk and 10 strikeouts this season. He has been hitting in the leadoff spot.

Washington is 0-7, the only team in the major leagues without a victory.

The Nationals did not immediately announce who will replace Milledge on the active roster. They were off Tuesday and scheduled to host Philadelphia on Wednesday.

UPDATE: Some of the reasoning according to Bill Ladson of MLB.com

Milledge, 24, is off to a slow start, batting .167 (4-for-24) with one RBI. Milledge was the leadoff hitter, and the front office didn't like the fact that he didn't take enough pitches to draw walks.

It was an adventure for Milledge in center field so far this season. On Opening Day against the Marlins on April 6, Emilio Bonifacio hit a ball that went over Milledge's head for an inside-the-park home run in the fifth inning. The next day, Bonifacio hit a triple that went over Milledge's glove. In both cases, some people in the organization believe Milledge should have caught the ball. Not Milledge. He followed the scouting report, which said to play shallow.

The team had warned Milledge about a possible demotion since Opening Day. Members of the organization were upset that Milledge was late for a meeting held by manager Manny Acta the day before, and they wanted Milledge to sit out for Opening Day. Acta refused, however, so the team fined Milledge instead.