The Relevance of the LIMA Plan

There has been a lot of discussion in the subscriber forums of BaseballHQ.com about the value (or lack of value) in the LIMA Plan. The discussion was jump started thanks to an article that appeared on the Hardball Times site, written by John Burnson. Burnson does limit his analysis to starting pitchers which are only a part of the LIMA Plan. Relief pitchers (even non-closers) play a huge role on many fantasy teams, so to leave them out of the evaluation is to miss a large portion of the LIMA eligible pitchers.

Ron Shandler wrote an editorial response that I believe is unaccessible for non-members. In it he shows a number of points that Burnson missed, and explains some of the history and the true use of the plan which is often missed by adopters. The LIMA Plan was never expected to provide someone with a first rate pitching staff. Rather, it was intended to allow users to spend most of their available budget on hitting and still build a competent and competitive staff. Ron Shandler began by listing a few key facts that everyone should know about the LIMA Plan.

• It has been around for a long, long time (11 years in fantasy time is forever)
• The more popular it has become, the less effective it has become.
• With each year that passes, memory fades and more people get it wrong
• I have not used the LIMA Plan, as written, for at least four years.

Ed DeCaria wrote another response testing the viability of using the LIMA filters (>=6.0 K/9, >=2.0 K/BB, and <=1.1 HR/9) to find pitchers that will show an improved ERA. Though Ed's work was a little hard to follow, he does show that the plan does work if you can get the eligible pitchers at a discount rate. This seems much more likely to happen in mixed leagues than in NL or AL leagues. But my favorite part of the article is when Ed describes why LIMA is not a failed strategy despite its flaws.

LIMA (“Low Investment Mound Aces”) was first introduced over 10 years ago. BEFORE Voros McCracken’s research revealed the sharp regression to the mean of hits on balls in play for pitchers. BEFORE the daily tracking of groundballs and flyballs and their subsequent segmentation into line drives and pop-ups and now “fliners.” BEFORE the realization that home runs allowed were largely a function of a pitcher’s fly ball rate, park factors, and luck rather than any direct home run avoidance skill. BEFORE pitch outcome data enabled us to analyze ball vs. strike ratios, called and swinging strike rates, and first pitch strikes. And BEFORE technology systems were installed in every major league stadium to allow us to analyze pitch types, release points, velocity, movement, and location.

There are definitely more accurate tools than the LIMA filters to use in evaluating pitchers and projecting their performance. I use them all the time. But the filters are not obsolete and are still useful in a lot of leagues. I don't recommend following any plan too strictly. A vital need at the draft table is the ability to zig when they zag. This flexibility will prevent you from failing to acquire the needed stats during your draft when you discover that everyone in your league is also using the LIMA Plan.

TRADE: Jake Peavy to White Sox

Will Carroll has reported on Baseball Prospectus.com and similar reports are flooding sports radio outlets that the San Diego Padres have traded All Star starting pitcher, Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox for a collection of players. The deal is apparently agreed to by both clubs but is awaiting the approval of Peavy who has a No-Trade clause in his contract.

The Padres and White Sox agreed to a trade centered on Jake Peavy moving from the Padres to the White Sox. Peavy has repeatedly stated that he wants to stay in the National League and a source close to Peavy re-iterated that in a call this morning. Peavy has a three year extension in place beginning in 2010, so there’s not much that the White Sox can do to give him more incentive. One of the main concerns, I was told, is that Peavy is unsure about playing for Ozzie Guillen. Peavy has until tomorrow to approve the deal. No “window” has been open or requested by either team.

The White Sox made an aggressive first offer of four players, including Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, and two other prospects. Gordon Beckham is thought to have been discussed, though it is unlikely the Sox would be willing to deal him, even for Peavy. He would have to be traded as a PTBNL, due to the Incaviglia rule. There’s been speculation that the Sox would deal Chris Getz, but again, the names included in the agreed deal have not been confirmed by any outlet at this time.

This is not a good trade for Peavy's fantasy owners (especially the ones in leagues that do not allow owners to keep players traded to the other league). Peavy has spent his MLB career in the best pitching environment in MLB - Petco Park. If he approves the deal he will be pitching in a homerun park that is likely to significantly errode Peavy's fantasy value. His HR/FB will take a huge jump based on just the change in home park alone. Peavy will also have to face the much stronger American League lineups that include designated hitters rather than his fellow pitchers.

Clayton Richard who has shown borderline LIMA skills and would look much better in the National League starting for the Padres. Aaron Poreda is a top pitching prospect but still has significant developing to do before he becomes a starting option. Gordon Beckham is an awesome hitter. If he were included this would have to be considered a very good deal for the Padres. Beckham would be listed as a PTBNL because players have to be with the teams that drafted them for at least a year before they can be dealt.

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2002	Padres	8.29	3.04	2.73	1.01	1.42	0.339	0.70	3.69
2003	Padres	7.21	3.79	1.90	1.53	1.31	0.263	0.78	4.99
2004	Padres	9.36	2.87	3.26	0.70	1.20	0.310	0.84	3.14
2005	Padres	9.58	2.22	4.32	0.80	1.04	0.288	0.77	2.89
2005	Padres	6.23	6.23	1.00	4.15	2.54	0.394	0.37	9.71
2006	Padres	9.56	2.76	3.47	1.02	1.23	0.316	0.73	3.51
2006	Padres	3.38	1.69	2.00	1.69	2.25	0.434	0.66	5.40
2007	Padres	9.67	2.74	3.53	0.52	1.06	0.286	0.78	2.84
2008	Padres	8.60	3.06	2.81	0.88	1.18	0.285	0.82	3.60
2009	Padres	10.13	2.79	3.63	1.03	1.11	0.288	0.71	3.35

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Continues

Sorry about the lack of posts the last few days. I'll try to make up for it this afternoon. You can read the lastest Fantasy Baseball Roundtable at Razzball.com this week. This week's topic of discussion concerns the statistical categories that we use to draft and evaluate players during the season. You should check out all the interesting answers.

What category(ies) do you think about least when drafting and managing your fantasy roster?

To Trade David Wright or Not is the Question

I recently received the following e-mail from a loyal reader:

Jon,

I'm in a 14 team, highly competitive keeper league in the midst of our 5th year. I have owned and been extremely happy with David Wright since the leagues inception. I have finished 3rd and 4th the past two years and I'm extremely motivated to win this season. I have been offered a very enticing trade and would appreciate your unbiased fantasy mind opinion of this proposed deal.

I would be trading:
David Wright, David Price, Ubaldo Jimenez, Zach Duke and Asdrubal Carbera

to obtain...

Miguel Cabrera, Brian Roberts, Heath Bell, Erik Bedard and Matt Cain

I'm very tied and invested in David Wright and find it difficult to part with him, however, I feel this deal could drastically improve my team in needed areas of HR, RBI, SV, and K please dispense upon me your knowledge and opinion of this deal.

Thanks,

Mark

I love this trade for you Mark. I do not believe you will lose anything in any category if you make this deal. Miguel Cabrera compares very well to David Wright. Wright steals a few more bases and is on a better team, but the rest of the deal makes it more than worth it.

Brian Roberts is a better fantasy option than Asdrubal Cabrera and should steal just as many bases with the added bonus of power. I like Asdrubal long term but I think he still has some developing to do despite his hot start. Roberts is a better hitter at this stage in their careers and I like the Baltimore lineup better if everyone stays healthy. Asdrubal's batting average is going to drop in the second half (as pitchers make adjustments) and Roberts will stay pretty consistent.

Heath Bell is a closer right now and one of the better ones, if not the best. The Padres offense is bad enough that Bell will be positioned for a save in just about any game the Padres lead in the ninth. Even a team as bad as the Padres will provide 40-plus save opportunities. David Price is an awsome prospect but he isn't in the majors right now. He also isn't pitching particularly well in triple-A, which is just fine with the Tampa Bay Rays who do not have a natural opening for him right now.

I like Ubaldo Jimenez as a future pitching star. Jimenez has been pitching better lately but his control is not yet at the point where he is trustworthy with a potential championship on the line. Despite his recent hamstring injury, I still prefer Erik Bedard. He is pitching very well (discounting his last start) and should help you in every pitching category but saves. If he does a short stint on the disabled list, do not fret just grab the best available middle reliever until he returns.

Zach Duke is pitching very well. The only weakness in Duke is a mediocre strikeout rate. I do think he will continue to pitch very well. Matt Cain is also pitching fairly well, if not as good as Zach Duke. He will always have a better strikeout rate. Cain's control is a little off right now but not so much that he'll harm your team (it's better than Jimenez's) and he should come around.

Mark, I think you win this trade in a huge way. It should be more than worth tearing yourself away from David Wright. Good luck, and let me know how it turns out.

Which Rookie (or close enough) Can Make or Break Your Fantasy Team?

Although everyone preaches not to rely on rookies to propel your fantasy team, there is no denying that rookies can have a huge impact. In the last few seasons we've seen Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria, and Tim Lincecum come from the minor leagues and show first round talent. Which rookie are you counting on this season?

Welcome to the Show

Toby Mergler of MLB.com interviewed me for their Welcome to the Show blog. The interview is part of a series featuring the members of the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League. Please check out my interview and the rest of the series.

In addition to Toby Mergler of MLB.com, the Expert League also features the following:

• Todd Farino
  Owner and operator of Fantasy Baseball Search
• Fred Lynn
  Legendary former MVP and ROY
• Matthew Leach
  Lead writer for the St. Louis Cardinals on MLB.com
• Matt Lutovsky
  Fantasy Writer for The Sporting News
• Jon Williams
  Writer for Advanced Fantasy Baseball
• Geoff Stein
  Operations Manager of Mock Draft Central
• Evan Dickens
  Writer for Fantasy Baseball Search
• Ryan Hallam
  Owner and operator of Fighting Chance Fantasy
• Junkyard Jake
  RC Rizza, Writer for Junkyard Jake
• Mike Kuchera
  The Fantasy Man, Fantasy Baseball Extraordinaire
• Sean Sultaire
  Writer for Fantasy Baseball Geeks

What's wrong with David Ortiz?

David Ortiz is large, slow and in his mid-thirties. He has hit for power just about everywhere he has ever played. Last season he had a wrist injury which definitely impacted his stats. But every media source seems to agree with Ortiz and batting coach, Dave Magadan when they say the wrist is no longer a problem. Ortiz missed a few days with a stiff back. At his age a stiff back and sore joints becomes a normal condition. This has been reported as a brief and minor problem. However, Ortiz is not hitting for average or for power. Two weeks ago, Magadan thought he had hit on the answer to Big Papi's problems.

From Boston.com on April 20th:

Hitting coach Dave Magadan diagnosed Ortiz's issue late last week. Ortiz has been cocking his hands into a hitting position too late, the same problem that has crept up on Ortiz when struggles surfaced in the past, Magadan said.

Late last week, Magadan showed Ortiz two pictures, one from last year during a hot streak and one from this year. In the first, Ortiz had his hands back, ready to swing, while the ball was halfway to the plate. In the second picture, Ortiz was in an identical position, but the pitch had nearly reached the plate.

Yesterday, Koji Uehara struck out Ortiz swinging twice, both at fastballs that did not reach 90 miles per hour. "When you're a little bit late . . . getting to the spot where you need to put a swing on the ball, 87 is like 97," Magadan said.

Magadan emphasized that readiness is Ortiz's main issue. Ortiz has not been hitting the ball to the opposite field and producing familiar Wall Ball doubles, but Magadan said opponents have been pitching him hard and inside. Magadan also said he has witnessed no effects from the wrist injury that plagued Ortiz late last season and in the playoffs.

While Magadan had identified the problem, he was not concerned with it. He and Ortiz worked on fixing it Saturday and Magadan is happy with the results.

"When you can change your season around in two games, it's not a start," Magadan said. "It takes some time. He felt good about the changes he made yesterday. For me, I think it's just a matter of time."

I and David Ortiz owners across the globe hope and pray that this is indeed the problem and that it is just a matter of timing. But I'm not so certain. Ortiz is in a class of player that has historically declined very quickly when reaching their mid-thirties, often it seems to happen overnight. Former Red Sox Mo Vaughn is a good example of this type.

Ortiz has a career walk rate of 13.5 percent, it is currently at 14 percent. His career K-rate is 21 percent, this season his rate is a just a touch higher at 22 percent. His BABIP is a little low at .281 compared to his .308 career rate, but that is hardly a sign of disastrous luck. Ron Shandler's XBA (expected batting average), which combines statistical indicators to predict what a player's batting average should be, suggests that Ortiz should be batting for about a .223 average. That's right on the money so far.

Ortiz's slugging percentage is hovering around .315, which is nearly .300 points below his last few years of production. He is hitting more flyballs than ever but a large percentage of them have been infield flies which helps supports Magadan's theory. The fact that he is not hitting homers at all is much more disturbing than the batting average. This is the part I believe is a fluke that will be corrected in the second half of the season.

So, what's wrong with Ortiz? He's getting older. His bat is slowing down a bit. His batting mechanics are a little off and he has struggled to correct them. I doubt the batting average will improve much above the .260 range, but I believe we'll see 20-plus homers before the season ends. That said, I wouldn't look acquire him unless the price were extremely low. I believe he'll bounce back but he's also an old enough version of the type that falls completely off the map to be willing to risk much. Then, maybe he just misses Manny...

Moving Up: Nolan Reimold

Most reports out of Baltimore are suggesting that outfielder Luke Scott is about to be placed on the disabled list. Scott was scheduled to have an MRI today on his injured left shoulder. Most of the Maryland media is in agreement that the result will see Scott on the disabled list very soon. The fondest wish of Orioles fans and Fantasy Baseball owners is that Nolan Reimold will be called up to replace him.

Reimold is an interesting prospect. He has suffered through a variety of injury problems that slowed his movement up the ladder and caused some to doubt his ability to become an impact minor leaguer. The 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook describes Reimold as someone who "... crushes mistakes and should be an average overall hitter..." He is better than that. His power is very good and he has improved a lot as a contact hitter over the last two seasons. I expect him to eventually hit for a decent average (in the .275-.285 range) and for 30-plus homers in a full season of at-bats.

Judging by his amazing start at triple-A, he could very well hit that projection by mid-July. On the strength of this start, fantasy owners everywhere are just waiting to pounce. I recommend that you be among them. As I'll say about every call-up, I expect Reimold to have his ups and downs this season but overall he should be worth owning in AL-leagues and deeper mixed leagues.

Season	Team	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	Spd	BABIP	wOBA
2006	Orioles (A+)	15.50%	25.80%	0.379	0.455	0.834	0.200	3.8	0.301	0.379
2007	Orioles (R)	16.70%	13.30%	0.410	0.433	0.844	0.200	3.9	0.269	0.406
2007	Orioles (AA)	8.40%	25.30%	0.365	0.565	0.929	0.258	2.5	0.359	0.401
2008	Orioles (AA)	11.10%	16.20%	0.367	0.501	0.868	0.217	4.4	0.298	0.384
2009	CHONE	8.50%	22.90%	0.320	0.418	0.738	0.165	4.4	0.296	0.325
2009	Oliver	9.40%	21.40%	0.333	0.462	0.795	0.203		0.289	0.344
2009	ZiPS	8.10%	16.50%	0.338	0.462	0.800	0.184	3.6	0.296	0.348
2009	Orioles (AAA)	14.40%	20.80%	0.479	0.713	1.192	0.327	3.3	0.431	0.514

Moving Up: Luke Hochevar and Juan Cruz

UPDATE: Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore announced on Tuesday that Joakim Soria has NO structural damage in his shoulder. This is great news. A couple of weeks rest and some ibuprofen should do wonders. ALSO: I'm in the same boat as everyone else who picked up Luke Hochevar and suffered a terrible blow to their ratios. Hopefully start two goes much better.

When the Royals placed Joakim Soria on the disabled list and moved Sidney Ponson (their only struggling starter) to the bullpen it created an opportunity for two players. Juan Cruz will be the interim closer for the Royals. Oh, they say it will be a committee but Cruz should see the majority of save chances. And Luke Hochevar, who was making the PCL look like Little League, joins the major league rotation.

Joakim Soria to the Disabled List

It has been obvious that there was something up with Soria, almost since the start of the season. He has pitched just about the bare minimum for a closer. The shoulder soreness has not seemed to affect his pitching when he has taken the mound which is hopefully an indication that the injury is not that debilitating. The Royals seem to think that a couple of weeks rest should do the trick but they are not saying much about it. We can only hope that they have taken all the appropriate steps to protect one of their best pitching assets. Soria should be held in every type of league. The temptation to make a panic move this time of year is huge but I encourage all owners to relax and find the best replacement possible.

Juan Cruz should lead the Royals new Closer Committee

If you are a Soria owner hopefully you might be lucky enough to pick up Juan Cruz. Cruz is an excellent pitcher who has been considered a great potential closer for years but has seen few opportunities. Cruz has not been at his best this season. His walk rate (always a little bit high) has elevated to 5.65 thus far this season. His strikeout rate is also a bit lower than usual at 6.91 compared to his 9.28 career average. Cruz is also a flyball pitcher who is inducing even fewer groundballs than usual. Fortunately, none of his weaknesses are showing in the results so far which means even though he is off to a shaky start his luck has improved. His FIP of 4.43 (1.88 earned run average) shows you the level he has pitched this season. Although you might normally scoff at picking up a reliever with so many bad indicators it should only be for a few weeks (we hope) and he'll collect valuable saves in that time.

The Hot Young Starter Everyone Wants: Luke Hochevar

The pitcher that every fantasy owner on the planet either tried to pick up or wished they could have over the last few days is Luke Hochevar. Hochevar flashed his ability in an otherwise mediocre debut season in 2008. The Royals banished him to triple-A this season to experiment with Sidney Ponson (lunacy I know). While Sidney Ponson was accumulating his typical numbers (on the bad side of mediocre) Hochevar was proving that he did in fact learn a few things in his 22 major league starts. In his six minor league starts this season pitched to a 0.90 ERA (3.10 FIP) by showing improved control and a little luck.

Hochevar is a extreme groundball pitcher with a good strikeout rate (expect something between 6.00 and 7.00) and very good control. The PCL is a hitters league and Hochevar's dominance in triple-A has mirrored Zack Grienke's in the majors. That is not to say I believe Hochevar will continue to be this good in the majors. I do believe that he will be a very good major league pitcher this season. He may have the typical ups and downs that young pitchers experience but all in all he should be worth picking up in leagues of all sizes and types.

Hochevar's Numbers:

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2006	Royals (A)	9.39	1.17	8.00	1.17	0.65	0.181	97.60%	3.40
2007	Royals (AA)	9.00	2.49	3.62	1.24	1.45	0.362	64.60%	4.02
2007	Royals (AAA)	6.83	3.26	2.10	1.71	1.28	0.260	69.80%	5.39
2007	Royals	3.55	2.84	1.25	0.71	1.18	0.246	84.30%	5.13
2007	Average	6.67	3.33	2.00	1.03	1.41	0.307	70.70%	4.47
2008	Royals (AAA)	6.23	3.12	2.00	1.04	0.98	0.196	70.40%	4.35
2008	Royals	5.02	3.28	1.53	0.84	1.47	0.310	62.30%	4.43
2009	Royals (AAA)	6.75	2.25	3.00	0.45	0.95	0.239	90.90%	3.10

The Royals' pitching just got even better

All-Star closer continues to battle shoulder soreness

Get to Know: Royals' two-start SP Hochevar

Poll: Do you prefer to be in leagues with friends or strangers?

Please excuse my experiments with different poll software. I think this one will work much better.

Moving Up: Chris Coghlan

The Marlins have called up second base prospect Chris Coghlan and it appears that he will soon replace week one hero Emilio Bonifacio in the starting lineup. The early plan is to have Coghlan play multiple positions but as essentially a regular in the lineup. He made his first start at his natural second base position and the next in the outfield. If Coghlan is productive and Bonifacio continues to slump a change could be made very quickly.

Coghlan is a disciplined hitter with strong contact skills. He has some pop and could hit around ten homers in a full season. He has just slightly above average speed but is a very good base stealer. He should accumulate 20-plus in a full season of at-bats. He is the player the Marlins project to eventually replace Dan Uggla at second base. Coghlan is a real prospect (Marlins #9 according to Baseball America) in a way that the well-traveled Bonifacio could never be. He will receive opportunities despite his production when Bonifacio could be replaced under similar circumstances.

Season	Team	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2006	Marlins (R)	2	7	2	0	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	0	0.286
2006	Marlins (A-)	28	94	28	5	1	0	14	12	13	9	5	2	0.298
2007	Marlins (A)	81	305	99	26	4	10	60	64	47	43	19	4	0.325
2007	Marlins (A+)	34	130	26	5	3	2	17	18	15	19	5	1	0.200
2008	Marlins (AA)	132	483	144	32	5	7	83	74	67	65	34	10	0.298
2009	Marlins (AAA)	25	96	33	9	1	3	21	22	12	10	9	1	0.344

Lance Berkman (and his Owners) Still Suffering

As if the slump wasn't problem enough, Lance Berkman is now complaining of a sore wrist. The wrist is so sore that he was only able to take five swings in batting practice before Friday's game. He says he hurt the wrist on Thursday night during a check swing. I am certain we will hear about an MRI exam soon. A wrist injury can seriously impact a hitter. I would bench Berkman wherever possible (I'm sure he is already benched in many leagues) and start searching for a long term replacement. While I hope this is just a short term injury, my gut is telling me it will not be.

In addition to the wrist injury Berkman seems to have lost considerable faith in himself. He compared himself to Andruw Jones and other players who have mysteriously lost their ability to hit productively. He was also scheduled to move down to fifth in the order (shocking that this had not already happened) and that has to contribute to his depression.

“I can’t believe it took this long to be moved out of the three hole,” said Berkman. “I’ve been awful. It’s really the only logical thing. I’m sorry that I’ve forced Coop’s hand to this point."

"Hopefully this will work a little bit better for the team. I don’t know, but I’d like to think that,” he said. “But you know it’s certainly a scary place to be when you don’t have any answers and you don’t see really any improvement in your performance."

"The only thing (is that) in 2007 it was similar because I felt pretty terrible all the way through May. That was the first. I could be the next Andruw Jones,” he said. “I mean, it’s possible and it’s unexplainable.”

Question of the Week: Which Slow Start Are You Most Worried About?

A new regular feature of Advanced Fantasy Baseball will be the Friday Question of the Week. I would love to get reader suggestions every week. You can e-mail them to Jon@AdvancedFantasyBaseball.com or just comment or twitter then to me at @bigjonwilliams.

pollcode.com free polls

Which Slow-Starting Star Are You Most Worried About?

Jimmy Rollins SS Philadelphia Phillies Lance Berkman 1B Houston Astros Josh Hamilton OF Texas Rangers Magglio Ordonez OF Detroit Tigers Matt Holliday OF Oakland Athletics BJ Upton OF Tampa Bay Rays David Ortiz DH Boston Red Sox Derrek Lee 1B Chicago Cubs Milton Bradley OF Chicago Cubs Garrett Atkins 3B Colorado Rockies

Manny Ramirez Suspended for 50 Games

From the LA Times:

Manny Ramirez has tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs and will be suspended 50 games starting today, The Times has learned.

The test result and suspension is expected to be announced later today. The Dodgers informed triple-A outfielder Xavier Paul this morning that he was being promoted to Los Angeles.

This is going to be a huge blow to those teams counting on Ramirez, especially in NL-only leagues. The Dodgers are likely to use Juan Pierre as a starter now. Pierre is not the player he once was but he should still provide a safe batting average and a few dozen steals playing regularly.

Xavier Paul is an interesting prospect. He has mid-teens power and steals bases at a nice clip. He's probably good enough to start for the Pirates or another team with a weak outfield. I feel I know Joe Torre well enough to predict that Pierre will get the bulk of the available playing time over an inexperienced kid.

To Read: Chipper Jones Interview

A member of the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable has secured an interview with the Atlanta Braves star third baseman, Chipper Jones. Since we always support our friends I am pointing out the interview so that you all (or y'all if you prefer) may enjoy it.The interview appears a few inches under the banner and breaking news at the top of the page.

The Chipper Jones Interview

Trade Advice: Shields/Berkman and Jones/Cruz

Hi Jon,

I'm in a mixed 6 team keeper roto league. I'm considering trading James Shields for Lance Berkman. Both of these players will become free agents at the end of this season. Berkman is suffering from some bad luck with his low babip as we all know. Possibly a good buy low situation?

It is important to note that the rest of my staff includes: Webb, Garza, Cain, Harden, Gallardo and Billingsley. I will surely go over my IP limit with 7 starters.

Thanks,
Jason

Hey Jason, in a six team league (assuming normal size rosters) I imagine there is decent talent available on the waiver wire in case of injuries. I love your pitching staff but with Brandon Webb having injury problems and Rich Harden's history of injuries it is important that you have some emergency options. Your staff is excellent and you are correct that if everything goes well you should easily meet most innings limits even without Shields on your roster.

James Shields is an excellent pitcher. He induces groundballs which helps limit the number of homers allowed. The Tampa Bay Rays have emphasized to their pitchers the importance of pitching to contact and allowing the defense to do its part. This has resulted in a significant drop in strikeouts by the starters. Shields has gone from a K/9 of 7.70 in 2007 to 6.70 in 2008 and just 5.05 thus far in the 2009 season. This is dragging down his fantasy value in 5x5 leagues. In addition, his BABIP is a very low .245 which indicates that a correction could be coming along with a potential jump in earned run average. This is not a pitcher to avoid, but his value looks like it could drop off from previous seasons.
Lance Berkman has started slowly. He suffered from a biceps injury that caused him to miss a few days early this season. This was reported as a minor injury and we haven't heard Berkman complain about it since his return. But he is presently batting .189 with six homeruns. His walk and strikeout rates are both a little higher than usual. His power seems as good as usual. This definitely looks (as Jason suggested) like just bad luck caused by a his pathetic .182 BABIP.

I would make this trade in an instant if I were in Jason's shoes. You probably won't have another chance to get Berkman at a value like this again this season as he is showing signs of breaking out of the slump.

Hi Jon

Great site and valuable insights. Wanted to get your thoughts on a trade offer. I'm strong in steals/runs, but need some power. Another owner has offered me Nelson Cruz in exchange for Adam Jones. While both players are at a peak right now, I'm not quite sold on Nelson maintaining his value through the year.

What do you think?

Thanks
Dan

Thanks for reading Dan. I like both players and I did write ups on them very recently. You can check them out here and here. I have faith that Nelson Cruz can continue to hit at his current power pace. The average could take a dip but I have faith that if healthy he will hit thirty homers this season. I like Adam Jones just as much and I think Jones will be a better player in the long term.

You did not provide too many details about your league but assuming there is not anything strange these two players are pretty equal in my eyes for the 2009 season. In a keeper league I would not part with Adam Jones because I believe his future is brighter. I also do not believe that there is a significant enough power difference between the two that would make this trade worthwhile for you. If you really want to move Jones for a power hitter I would aim much higher.

If you have a fantasy baseball question or need some advice please do not hesitate to contact me by e-mail (jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com), by commenting on the blog (you're halfway there already), Twitter me (@bigjonwilliams), or by instant messenger (bigjonempire on both AIM and Yahoo).

Now on the Waiver Wire...

The latest edition of The (Waiver) Wire is now up on Crucial Sports. As usual it features a mix of players that may be available in a wide variety of leagues. You can check it out as always by following this link:

The (Waiver) Wire A small sample:

The Mets have more than their fair share of problems this season. David Wright is doing his annual Augie Ojeda imitation. Doc Gooden signed the newly painted walls of Citi Field. In addition, Darryl Strawberry shared what he and Wilt Chamberlain have in common. With all of this happening, it would be easy to miss Jerry Manuel falling in love with Omir Santos. Santos came up through the Yankees’ system. He was considered one of those all glove no bat catching prospects. However, that has changed recently, and although he will never be a Russell Martin or Joe Mauer, he can certainly be an acceptable National League catcher in your NL-only league.

Trade Jose Reyes for Greinke, Jones, and Hill?

I'm in a 14 team 4 player keeper league that is now in its fifth year. I can't sleep at night with a feeling of buyers remorse after making a trade yesterday. I decided to deal my fantasy God Jose Reyes for Zack Greinke, Adam Jones, and Aaron Hill. I have owned Reyes since his career began but this trade seemed so interesting. Did I do the wrong thing here in getting rid of Reyes for possibly some players who could be over performing now. Honestly I just wanted to hear an outside opinion because I'm getting ripped apart on the boards in my league.

-- Scott

I think you can relax, Scott. I think you made a great deal for yourself. It is always hard when you give up the unquestioned best player in the deal. You are right that Zack Greinke probably will not have an earned run average under 1.00 for the entire season. Adam Jones is unlikely to bat for a .380 average. Aaron Hill may hit 20 homeruns but I would be shocked if he hit the 30-plus for which he is presently on pace. But that is no reason to worry.
Zack Greinke is becoming the ace pitcher he was always projected to be. He should be a Cy Young contender all season. He is striking out better than a batter per inning which is excellent for a starter but only slightly better than the pace has established over the last few seasons. His BABIP is .292 so far which indicates that he hasn't been particularly lucky with balls in play. He induces ground balls so he should limit the damage that flyballs can do as well. FanGraphs has him with an FIP of 1.38 (compare it to ERA if you aren't familiar -- with some luck factors removed) so it is not an illusion, he is in fact pitching like an ace.

Adam Jones has been projected as a potential 30/30 star outfielder by dozens of analysts including me. In addition, Jones was predicted to ready for a breakout entering this season by just about every fantasy writer in the business. He is being more patient at the plate so far with 9.1 percent walk rate compared to a 5.2 percent career rate. His contact rate has improved and swinging at better pitches naturally leads to better numbers. I believe the batting average will come down to the .290-.300 range. But the power? The power is here to stay. I think we're looking at a very real 30/30 ((okay, maybe 30/20) season in the making.

I've always liked Aaron Hill a little more than most. Probably because I drafted him as a minor leaguer in my primary AL-only and he contributed to a championship. Hill is getting lucky at the plate so far. His walk and strikeout rates are right at his career averages. His BABIP is at .388, almost 70 points over his career average. His career high in homeruns is just 17 (hit the year before his injury) but at age 27 he would not be the first player with experience to see a power spike. I doubt he hits 30 homers but a career high in the 20-25 range would not be ridiculous. His average will come closer to his career .289 average. Some might consider this a disappointing analysis but a .290 average with 20-plus homers from second base is not a bad thing.

I have to assume Scott, because he made the deal that he is not concerned with stolen bases because this is the area you will no doubt lose the most. Jose Reyes is in a mini-slump after starting the season fairly hot. This is mostly the result of an unlucky streak. His BABIP is .283, almost 40 points below his 2008 level and 27 points below his career level. I am not at all worried about Reyes' production. Jones will lessen that loss slightly but the big benefit in this trade is in homeruns, Runs, RBI, and adding the (presently anyway) best pitcher in baseball. You should relax Scott, and tell your league mates they can drink out of your championship trophy at the end of the season...after they admit they were wrong.

Trade Advice: B.J. Upton for Nelson Cruz

Hello Jon,

I'm in a mixed 18 team head to head, keeper, points league. I have just been offered BJ Upton for Nelson Cruz. This looks to be a classic buy low, sell high trade but Upton's high stikeouts and .152 avg scare me. Is he healthy and do you think he will turn his season around? Thanks

James in San Diego

This is definitely a tough one, I'm going to assume that there are no salaries to be concerned with here. I do think that B.J. Upton will come around eventually. As Jason Grey of ESPN recently wrote - it takes a while for a batter coming off shoulder surgery to regain his swing. Some batters will take longer than others. And judging by the struggles that other players like Travis Hafner, Shawn Green and Carlos Quentin endured after their surgeries expecting Upton to recover quickly looks like a long shot. Upton was still recovering from the injury when the season started and I believe that he rushed to get back on the field, possibly to his own detriment. This does not mean I would give up on Upton if I owned him (and I do in a few leagues). Upton is striking out a lot right now and appears to be experiencing some bad luck with balls in play (.231 BABIP). I think at some point (possibly after a stint on the disabled list) Upton will not only get it together but explode in production.

But you don't own Upton, you own Nelson Cruz who is playing great right now. I do believe that Nelson Cruz will establish himself as a major league player this season. He is already on pace for 30-plus homers and around 20 steals with about a .280 batting average. I believe Cruz will only get better when Josh Hamilton returns to the lineup and starts to hit. Cruz does have a very high BABIP right now (so his batting average could come down a bit) but he has been maintaining a high BABIP for the last few years in the minors and I believe his normal level is still a pretty high .330 or so.

Everything being equal I believe Upton is capable of putting up better numbers than Cruz. However, I cannot endorse trading Cruz for Upton right now. You just aren't getting enough of a discount in my opinion. If Upton continues to struggle you may get him for even less of a value than Cruz (assuming the owner does not move him to someone else first). I would counter with a lesser but still fairly productive player and see if he bites. Otherwise my advice is to wait a little longer. You may end up without Upton but you also will not have to suffer through the rest of his recovery and adjustment period.

If you have a fantasy baseball question or need some advice please do not hesitate to contact me by e-mail (jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com), by commenting on the blog (you're halfway there already), Twitter me (@bigjonwilliams), or by instant messenger (bigjonempire on both AIM and Yahoo).

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Continues

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is being hosted by RotoAuthority.com (respect it!) and Tim Dierkes has asked the collected members:

Here on April 30th, what is your single biggest fantasy baseball regret of the year?

Check out a wide variety of answers from some of the best Fantasy Baseball Bloggers in the business.

Moving Up: David Aardsma

He has been a potential closer for longer than is recommended. He has shown better stuff than results...until this season that is. With the Seattle Mariner closer Brandon Morrow, on the disabled list with right biceps tendinitis (a minor but annoying problem for a pitcher who is called on multiple times a week) David Aardsma is the favorite to see save opportunities.

Aardsma has pitched very well for new Mariner manager Don Wakamatsu. Wakamatsu demonstrated that he would not hesitate to use Aardsma in a save situation just last week and Aardsma succeeded without incident.

"You've seen the value of having two guys that have the stuff and the makeup to do the job," manager Don Wakamatsu said Sunday to MLB.com.

One of the tenets of Advanced Fantasy Baseball is "ride the hot arms until you cannot ride them any longer." Aardsma is pitching very well pick him up and use him until he stops pitching well. If you need saves he is one pitcher that is still available in a lot of leagues about to get the chance to close.

Brandon Morrow to the Disabled List

The Mariners Closing Duo

Moving Up: Matt LaPorta

With Travis Hafner on the disabled list the Cleveland Indians have called up top outfield prospect Matt LaPorta. LaPorta of course was the key reward when the Indians dealt CC Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers. He should be picked up in all but the shallowest of leagues. He begins by platooning with David Dellucci but if he continues to hit the way he was at triple-A that won't last long.

LaPorta has amazing power and should eventually hit for a good average. He has good contact skills but still needs to develop more patience and discipline at the plate. In a full season of at-bats he could easily hit 30 homeruns and is likely to approach forty once he adjusts to the major leagues. This season I would expect something in the 260-270 range with 25-plus homers if he stays in the majors the rest of the season. He is likely to be streaky as pitchers adjust and he adjusts back to them. But those hot streaks will be what fantasy owners live for -- like the older players in your league when they talk about Darryl Strawberry's epic streaks.

IMPORTANT: Do not sleep on Luis Valbuena who was also called up. He could very well be starting before the end of the week. He has pop and speed and qualifies at second base.

Season	Team	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2007	Brewers (R)	7	27	7	1	0	2	4	4	1	8	0	0	0.259
2007	Brewers (A)	23	88	28	8	0	10	18	27	7	22	0	1	0.318
2008	Indians (AA)	17	60	14	1	0	2	6	8	4	12	0	0	0.233
2008	Brewers (AA)	84	302	87	23	2	20	56	66	45	63	2	1	0.288
2009	Indians (AAA)	21	75	25	4	2	5	22	14	9	10	0	0	0.333

LaPorta called up and ready to play

Matt LaPorta and Luis Valbuena Ready for Impact

Hot Prospect Profile—MATT LAPORTA

Me, Albert Pujols, and the Magic Lamp

I was walking around the perimeter of the little league field scouting for future big leaguers I could take in my farm system drafts when I tripped over some junk behind the center field fence. Russell Field was very deep in center field (for a little league park) thus very few people wandered this way. I pulled myself back onto my feet, holding the fence for support. I kicked the pile of junk and saw what appeared to be an old kerosene lamp. I picked it up and rubbed the face of it with my sleeve -- more in the interest of keeping the gunk off my hands than actually cleaning it. It suddenly became very hot and I dropped it. It began to smoke. I started to walk away quickly but then the smoke began to take the shape of a man who looked an awful lot like Albert Pujols if you discounted the fact that he had wisps of smoke rather than legs.

I stood in stunned silence starring at what I was certain was an hallucination of some kind. It reminded me of the time I thought I saw a giant space craft floating over Malden Square. I don't do drugs and I was not drinking this time. The smokey man was adjusting his sweater vest which looked very tacky over his otherwise bare torso. He said something to me but it did not register. He repeated it but much louder.

"Thank you for freeing me," he said. "I've been trapped in that thing since the seventies."

I really wasn't sure I wanted to enter into conversation with my delusions so I just nodded. He seemed slightly annoyed with me as if waiting for me to do something. I tried just turning and walking away, I had settled on the idea that I was dehydrated and should pick up a bottle of water as soon as possible. But the smokey Pujols appeared directly in front of me as if he had been there all along.

"Apparently you do not know how this works. I am a Baseball Genie. I can influence events and give you knowledge of baseball beyond all men. As the person who has freed me from my captivity I will allow you five wishes."

"Five," I asked. "I thought genies customarily only allowed three wishes."

"Are you complaining or would you rather not have any wishes at all?"

"Uh, okay sorry about that. Can you give me enough money to buy the New York Yankees and still have billions to spare?"

"Are you not listening? I am a Baseball Genie. I do not have the power to grant wishes that are unrelated to baseball. So I cannot give you money or make any part of you bigger or smaller. I cannot make girls fall in love with you or make being fat cool."

"Fine. You don't have to get all testy about it. You being a lame genie is not my fault."

"I walk perfectly fine when I choose not to float. I am growing tired of this. What are your five wishes?"

WISH ONE

I wish to have a perfect understanding of baseball. I want to be able to look at stats or see a player on the field and instantly know exactly what his potential is. I want this understanding to also include what general managers are thinking when they make personnel changes. Eventually word of my outstanding understanding will reach general managers and owners everywhere. But I would turn down offers from every team except the most pathetic franchises. The worse the team the more likely I would be to help. Just think what that would do for my blog!

WISH TWO

I wish steroids has never existed. I wish every achievement in baseball history was completely untainted by anything having to do with performance enhancing drugs. I am assuming that this would result in Barry Bonds being perceived as a Hall-of-Fame bastard, rather than a bastard who will never be in the Hall-of-Fame. Mark McGuire, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro, and Jose Canseco could all be fun again.

WISH THREE

I wish MLB Opening Day was a National Holiday. We have so many stupid holidays for so and so's birthday and to honor this group and that group. Just think how many people could avoid lying to their bosses or using up vacation days. We could have parades in the morning (parades in April have to be better than parades in January, right?) and barbecue traditions after the game. Since everyone had the day off all the games could be day games.

WISH FOUR

I wish everyone played fantasy baseball the way everyone listens to music. I know not everyone listens to music but the people who never listen to any music at all are few and far between. I want fantasy baseball to be integrated into normal life that way. Think about it, kids would want to learn advanced math to improve their ability to understand baseball through statistical analysis. Men and Women of all ages would have another common point of interest. Parents could tell their children stories of the days when every league was either American League or National League and they never mixed and their children could be annoyed about it.

WISH FIVE

I wish that every kid would play baseball. I want baseball to be everyone's favorite sport. I never want to pass a baseball field again that isn't either covered with snow or kids playing ball. I want little league to be like the cub scouts used to be before too many scary things happened. I want being on a little league team to teach kids the values that so many do not seem to be learning. I want kids to learn to work together and to support each other. I want baseball to work through children to eliminate prejudice. I want baseball to be too important to be tainted by petty differences.

"Damn you sound like a beauty pagaent contestant," the genie laughed. "But I like it."

He winked and made some odd gestures with his hands. There was a distant rumble and he blinked out of site. I can only hope my wishes come true.

Now, Back to the other kind of fantasy baseball...

The Injuries Pile Up Quickly

Dealing with injuries is probably the toughest thing a fantasy owner has to deal with during the season. In deeper leagues it can be incredibly difficult to find replacements capable of putting up acceptable numbers, especially when it comes to pitchers. Sure, there are usually lots of arms on the free-agent list but rarely are they the types you want to have on your roster for a month or two. I judge whether or not to replace a particular player with a particular free agent on a few different criteria.

1. Do the league rules allow me to drop a player at will? In leagues that force you to hold on to replacement players until the original player returns or the replacement is himself disabled or sent to the minors, I will often avoid picking up previously unknown quantities.
   
2. Is the player being replaced expected to be out longer than two weeks? If a player is going to be out for the season (especially when the injury occurs in April or May) I will hold off on replacing them (as rules allow) until I can find a good long term replacement. I don't want to risk being stuck with Omir Santos all season if I have no chance of dumping him.
3. How good is the team of the potential replacement? This can be tricky but I would prefer to find replacement on good teams. This is because a good team is unlikely to keep a player around who fails to produce. Unfortunately, the good teams will sometimes just keep the player on the roster (especially pitchers) and use them in the absolute worse situations --blow outs and in the 14th inning when there are no other options.
4. Could the potential replacement win a regular role if he does well? I love when this happens. Right now, I'm hoping Garrett Mock and Omir Santos turn into regulars. Top prospects and older veterans are great for this type of speculation. At some point this season I hope to take a chance on Jim Edmonds and Pedro Martinez.
5. How desperate am I am for at-bats or innings? Under normal circumstances I would not go near a player a like Augie Ojeda but when the injuries start to pile up at-bats become very important. You want to remain competitive in runs and rbi and even the worst players when they continue to receive at-bats can help you in these categories. When I'm desperate for innings things are a little different. Obviously you don't want to pick up a pitcher just because he pitches a lot. That's a good way to end up with the worst Rockies type starter who will almost certainly blow up your ERA and WHIP. If you can add/drop players at will you can just rotate between favorable starts. Otherwise I suggest you pick the pitcher with the highest combination of groundball rate and strikeout rate. Hopefully that pitcher will be on a good team with a good defense.
   

Orioles expect Mora back Friday

Soria tests shoulder, throws on Sunday

McLouth's return likely a few days away

Derrek Lee day-to-day with neck spasms

Mauer targets Friday return to Twins

Girardi hopeful Damon can return to action on Monday

With Drew on DL, D-backs shuffle roster